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disMay Pattern Disco

CoastalWx

By CoastalWx,
in New England

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Typhoon Tip

Typhoon Tip

Posted
Posted

I am highly confident that interminable heat is unlikely over our particular geography.

 

(tongue in cheek)

 

However, that Euro solution is classically allowing it's bias/tendency to over construct events in central to eastern Canada to run amok. 

 

At 72 hours, there is a vague and small ridge node up there well west of James Bay ...which it doubles, then triples in spatial and mass amplitudes spontaneously from unknown physical source, drilling it then SE toward NS.  On that day, Monday, the chart looks reasonable ...but how it got there? 

 

quite suspiciously overamp(ing) along the way.  

 

So, while it is unlikely that any location N of the Del Marva will be hot end to end ...particularly as one heads N up the coast, I have my doubts the Euro will be successful in that.   I bet dollars that whole evolution up there that leads to a big fat oozer dropping south like a brick thudding off the back of a truck normalizes, damps out given time.  We'll see... 

 

You know ... having said all that, it's hard to say what is really going on but the operational runs of all guidance types are waaay way out of sync with the GEFs -derived teleconnector suite.  It may be a function of shortened wave-lengths ... I dunno.  But, for days the suite has really been so exotically winter like it would make a January zealot ashamed - yet, predicting heat waves ...just a weeeeee bit out of whack there.  fascinating.

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Cold Miser

Cold Miser

Posted
Posted

I am highly confident that interminable heat is unlikely over our particular geography.

 

(tongue in cheek)

 

However, that Euro solution is classically allowing it's bias/tendency to over construct events in central to eastern Canada to run amok. 

 

At 72 hours, there is a vague and small ridge node up there well west of James Bay ...which it doubles, then triples in spatial and mass amplitudes spontaneously from unknown physical source, drilling it then SE toward NS.  On that day, Monday, the chart looks reasonable ...but how it got there? 

 

quite suspiciously overamp(ing) along the way.  

 

So, while it is unlikely that any location N of the Del Marva will be hot end to end ...particularly as one heads N up the coast, I have my doubts the Euro will be successful in that.   I bet dollars that whole evolution up there that leads to a big fat oozer dropping south like a brick thudding off the back of a truck normalizes, damps out given time.  We'll see... 

 

You know ... having said all that, it's hard to say what is really going on but the operational runs of all guidance types are waaay way out of sync with the GEFs -derived teleconnector suite.  It may be a function of shortened wave-lengths ... I dunno.  But, for days the suite has really been so exotically winter like it would make a January zealot ashamed - yet, predicting heat waves ...just a weeeeee bit out of whack there.  fascinating.

A.C. Installation delay?  

...Possible frustration from the April Install crowd?

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Dan

Dan

Posted
Posted

If you don't install today, you will roast the next 4 days.

Get em in ASAP

 

85-90 with dewpoints in the 40s is warm but not roasting.   85-90 with dewpoints in the 70s is roasting.  I won't turn on my AC for those temps with dewpoints in the 40s.

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powderfreak

powderfreak

Posted
Posted

Perfect scenario on the GFS. High heat through Saturday and then the BD comes roaring through. Sun-Mon ends up miserable for NYC-south while we get sun and cooler temps. That's how you run a BD this time of year.

 

Yeah that's a classic BD this weekend starting on Sunday.

 

Can see that high start nosing down even early on Sunday...

 

 

And then 24 hours later for Monday it is firmly in place with that high off the New England coast.

 

post-352-0-85519500-1464114918_thumb.gif

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CapturedNature

CapturedNature

Posted
Posted

90 tomorrow? Some of the torch areas might be able to do it. 

 

I was just thinking that. WNW flow up here and ~14C at H85. CON/BDL did 84/83 yesterday with about 10C and good mixing...probably a lot of 88-90s in the warm spots.

 

You guys actually beat Kevin to the punch....lol

 

I installed yesterday just to offset the daytime heat.  I think we should be fine over night. 

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Cold Miser

Cold Miser

Posted
Posted

lots of banter posts (installing, banning, etc...) today.  Back to dry spells, heat, backdoor fronts, and potential for severe weather, please.

You are really stuck on a militant type of order in this forum aren't you?

 

Overall patterns are discussed, but this is a social forum as well.  Side discussions are part of what make a successful online community, regardless of how sterile you unidirectional you envision this place being.

 

Don't be so uptight and enjoy the talk (or not).  

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Typhoon Tip

Typhoon Tip

Posted
Posted

12 z Euro ... as I expected, backed off a little on the intensity of that BD for late Sunday and is suspect that trend isn't through. 

 

I think there is going to be a boundary in the area though - I just don't see a 35 kt NE under welling roller going all the way to Cape Hatteras and probably something much more akin to a banal BD in this case is more likely.  

 

we need these inside of 72 hours in any guidance or they tend to be over done scenarios in the models.  

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Typhoon Tip

Typhoon Tip

Posted
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agree Brian ...  I think much of the dread of BDs is when the boundary stalls over NYC, they get training multi-pulse natural fireworks while we sit dead calm at 48 F under gray so dense street lamps flick on.  

 

ideally, if a boundary needs to come in from the NE ...you're far better off it means business.   The 12z Euro did back off a little on the backside HP as well, positioning it more E than the previous cycle.. hopefully, that doesn't mean an edger -

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powderfreak

powderfreak

Posted
Posted

Love all the installations!!

Up out of the closets and in the windows.

up and In!

 

You are an odd duck my man, haha.

 

Almost an OCD component to it, this compulsion to get people to install AC units. 

 

Do those that love heat and humidity all have such an affinity for climate controlled houses?

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ROOSTA

ROOSTA

Posted
Posted

You are an odd duck my man, haha.

 

Almost an OCD component to it, this compulsion to get people to install AC units. 

 

Do those that love heat and humidity all have such an affinity for climate controlled houses?

Kev would literally croak down here. No window units needed, Central Air for cooling and heat which is rarely needed. Top to bottom wood 8" tongue-in-grove cedar. Insulates itself I like the heat, easier on the bones, all the aches and pain seems slightly more tolerable. The Td's are what kills ya had to get acclimated real fast-no choice. Come on down I'll show ya some heat. It's been right around 90 (May) everyday with a few days with mid 70 dews. A new meaning to swamp-arz.  

 

Another year that the heat rounds the top of a cut-off...tropic watch down here. I'm hoping this is the year the drought is broken.     

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