CoastalWx Posted May 22, 2016 Author Share Posted May 22, 2016 well...just my opinion, but this whole ordeal with a coastal low, and the subsequent closing low aloft, all of it and the whole scenario looks like it's getting destroyed my seasonal normalization. there's just not enough thermal gradients to sustain this via baroclinic, thermodynamic feed-back. without that fundamental physical processing, these things will tend to do what this thing has done so far, and is likely to continue: spinning harmlessly overhead. in fact, when the low finally does close aloft, I'm actually thinking that it's going to cause more of a convective instability on Tuesday more so than a strata misty wash-out thing. this thing just showed up at the wrong time of the year. this is that trough that was given the wrong address and time, on purpose, by the cool kids, and then showed up ready to party but there was no one there. send in the synoptic clowns - still, it's not a party in lieu of less actual misery success. it's just this sort of drab, non-committal to nastiness appeal - I've seen this a lot in April and Mays of years past, when a trough looked fierce in the runs but the lower troposphere didn't verify wanting any part of it. we'll see if it finishes this way. I completely agree. That lack of baroclinicity and combine that with convection robbing processes.....just screws up all the advection cranking belts to really drive home a goood widespread area of rain. You can get those lows sometimes, but you really need an intense system for this time of year....or just simply get the low much closer to the coast so that the strong low level convergence yields more in the way of +RA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted May 22, 2016 Share Posted May 22, 2016 I completely agree. That lack of baroclinicity and combine that with convection robbing processes.....just screws up all the advection cranking belts to really drive home a goood widespread area of rain. You can get those lows sometimes, but you really need an intense system for this time of year....or just simply get the low much closer to the coast so that the strong low level convergence yields more in the way of +RA. yup ... and what I'm hoping is that the close low creates enough instability and township downpours to keep us from enjoying that pointless drought drizzle of posts coming from CT - Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted May 22, 2016 Share Posted May 22, 2016 What a jerk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted May 22, 2016 Share Posted May 22, 2016 What a jerk Ah - hahahahaaa Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted May 22, 2016 Share Posted May 22, 2016 79-80F Memorial Day weekend seems swell and all, but nothing really out of the ordinary Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted May 22, 2016 Share Posted May 22, 2016 79-80F Memorial Day weekend seems swell and all, but nothing really out of the ordinary For people who installed nearly 2 months ago this has been a long time coming! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted May 22, 2016 Share Posted May 22, 2016 79-80F Memorial Day weekend seems swell and all, but nothing really out of the ordinary well... 79-80 is question too - being fair, I'd like to see the 00z ...even the 12z tomorrow continue with this 'least excuse imaginable not to build the ridge' idea going on before I'd fully buy in. just yesterday it was 89-90. the gfs just has got hand lotion and tissue paper for any stupid fly in the flow and uses it batter down heights, enhance confluence and stop the continental heat from gaining latitude - all of which could easily be in error. just the same, this is BD season so - we always go that goin' for us - Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted May 23, 2016 Share Posted May 23, 2016 Danger ahead-- uh-oh Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted May 23, 2016 Share Posted May 23, 2016 Far from a drought here yet, but man, NW MA missed out on much of the winter precipitation and now spring rains have often missed in every direction. Nothing here the past week aside from some sprinkles. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted May 23, 2016 Share Posted May 23, 2016 Theres massive tourneys that weekend. There's 2 huge ones on the Cape and another one in Needham lol I played in the Needham one back in the early-mid '90s as a young teenager from a club near Albany. Wow that was a long time ago. IIRC, Framingham also had a decent sized tourney around that time too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted May 23, 2016 Share Posted May 23, 2016 GFS/EC are still BD dismay for Friday...especially NE of CT. The weekend looks warm overall, but there's some flies in the ointment. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted May 23, 2016 Share Posted May 23, 2016 BOX going with 79-83 type temps for Weds through Sunday for my hood Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Michael05192016 Posted May 23, 2016 Share Posted May 23, 2016 In backdoorland, does it really make sense to install in the first place? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Michael05192016 Posted May 23, 2016 Share Posted May 23, 2016 I am sure on Memorial Day weekend, Tippy's flags will suddenly extend and point Southwest as slate gray overcast creeps Southwest and screen doors slam shut. Sky clear goes to 005 OVC and winds go to 30 degrees. Dewpoint drop from 63 to 59 then to 51 and then to 46. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted May 23, 2016 Share Posted May 23, 2016 I am sure on Memorial Day weekend, Tippy's flags will suddenly extend and point Southwest as slate gray overcast creeps Southwest and screen doors slam shut. Sky clear goes to 005 OVC and winds go to 30 degrees. Dewpoint drop from 63 to 59 then to 51 and then to 46. let's go over the the last 3 or 4 days worth of modeling characteristics. back whence, the models unanimously latched on to what had prior been hinted, and that's substantial ridging to close out the month, heralding in the season's first bona fide summery air mass (if not an outright heat wave). since then, ...rather abruptly 24 hours ago, the models started in with the SW pointing flags slammin' screen doors and purple blotched goose bumpy thighs at the bus stops BD... centered mainly on Friday...lingering into Saturday, then trying to flip back by Monday. Now, the models have backed off substantially for Friday's BD incursion... The Euro's 12z only appears to have a vague vestige of any backdoor on that day, and the synoptic look for Saturday is a whole different universe, with off-shore flow and 18 C at 850s, lower than 50% RH at 700 ... all pointing to about 93 (probably) right down the shore communities. The GFS is a little more reluctant to back off, but did some... offering highs (GFSX MOS) some 15 F higher than yesterday, while the operational version of the GFS has temps sliding ...actually, crashing would be more like it, through the lower 50s on Monday with a raging BD boner it seems to have at all times a default for that time range. The Euro also has more BD presentation for that day than prior runs, albeit weaker than the GFS... based on that multi-day, multi-cycle pattern of behavior ... these boundaries "might" just altogether be over-done in the runs and as they get closer in time, they tend to shallow out in future cycles. it's tough if one is an operational Met tho - shallow virtually invisible BDs can sometimes come along with the best potency of oceanic cured air and slam a few screen doors with 47 F air into NE zones, and that would be 40 to some 50 F different than CT if/when that happens. which, this is still the heart of the season for that sort of thing... So it's kind of a toss up in my mind between climo finding a way to verify, and the models being unsure. I suppose the course of least regret is to assume at some point that anyone that hates BDs will be bent-over and butt sore come Monday or so, and if not ... it's just an added bonus (no pun intended). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted May 24, 2016 Share Posted May 24, 2016 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted May 24, 2016 Share Posted May 24, 2016 In backdoorland, does it really make sense to install in the first place? Sarcasm? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lava Rock Posted May 24, 2016 Share Posted May 24, 2016 Far from a drought here yet, but man, NW MA missed out on much of the winter precipitation and now spring rains have often missed in every direction. Nothing here the past week aside from some sprinkles.Sick of it.would really like a dank and dreary rain day. 1"+ would be nice. What's a man gotta do Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted May 24, 2016 Share Posted May 24, 2016 18z GFS for Friday is more like "a jar" than a door. S NH gets warm sectored for the afternoon while Conway N and E stays in hell. Let's keep it up in Maine where they like it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Michael05192016 Posted May 24, 2016 Share Posted May 24, 2016 As of right now the first 2/3 of June look very cool and damp at times and w/ a few nice days. The last 1/3 an outright inferno. Most of July at times will probably be spent in hell (pun intended with heat and humidity which will bring up 2013 comparisons. Backdoors will be prayed for in 4 weeks. A June 2009 misery repeat will quickly morph into a July 2011/2013 ordeal. Let's see if this happens. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted May 24, 2016 Author Share Posted May 24, 2016 Looks like Friday and Saturday are the warm days. Potential furnace Saturday. We door hard Sunday and Monday but front may push well SW and clear us out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted May 24, 2016 Share Posted May 24, 2016 As of right now the first 2/3 of June look very cool and damp at times and w/ a few nice days. The last 1/3 an outright inferno. Most of July at times will probably be spent in hell (pun intended with heat and humidity which will bring up 2013 comparisons. Backdoors will be prayed for in 4 weeks. A June 2009 misery repeat will quickly morph into a July 2011/2013 ordeal. Let's see if this happens. You have to be that poster that used to have a different name down in NYC area that was banned. Clashmore Mike or something like that Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted May 24, 2016 Share Posted May 24, 2016 You have to be that poster that used to have a different name down in NYC area that was banned. Clashmore Mike or something like that It wasn't clashmore....it was some other guy-meteorological Mike or something like that....but it's definitely the same person. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmillz25 Posted May 24, 2016 Share Posted May 24, 2016 It wasn't clashmore....it was some other guy-meteorological Mike or something like that....but it's definitely the same person.I think its mikehobbist or something like that Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted May 24, 2016 Share Posted May 24, 2016 Dave Epstein @growingwisdom 10h 10 hours ago CFSv2 models brings full scale drought to much of southern New England by early July. Very little rain in June. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted May 24, 2016 Author Share Posted May 24, 2016 Meanwhile, parts of NE MA have like .7" of rain this morning. That is a terrible model to gauge precip when it's from convection. He should know better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted May 24, 2016 Share Posted May 24, 2016 I think its mikehobbist or something like that That's the guy! Why was he banned? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Walpole Joe Posted May 24, 2016 Share Posted May 24, 2016 Dave Epstein @growingwisdom 10h 10 hours ago CFSv2 models brings full scale drought to much of southern New England by early July. Very little rain in June. I like him and follow him on twitter because of his gardening tweets, but his volume of drought posts is increasing to the point where I am tired of reading them. We get it Dave, you think it's going to be dry. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted May 24, 2016 Author Share Posted May 24, 2016 I like him and follow him on twitter because of his gardening tweets, but his volume of drought posts is increasing to the point where I am tired of reading them. We get it Dave, you think it's going to be dry. Don't forget his posts about dry September and corresponding winters. He made that in September 2014. Oops. Plant more, post less. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted May 24, 2016 Share Posted May 24, 2016 Looks like Friday and Saturday are the warm days. Potential furnace Saturday. We door hard Sunday and Monday but front may push well SW and clear us out. 90+ on the Euro E MA/NH Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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