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disMay Pattern Disco

CoastalWx

By CoastalWx,
in New England

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CT Valley Snowman

CT Valley Snowman

Posted
Posted

Nice job by the Euro on this weekend system, we're not able to really establish a good moisture feed across the interior with the dry air and subsidence and a further south track on the coastal low SE of the benchmark. Might not get much more than a light shower or two around here. Hopefully the Tuesday system can deliver more rainfall before we crank up the heat late week but watch the backdoor Saturday, especially eastern and northern areas.

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dendrite

dendrite

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You better work some magic...supposed to be up north this coming weekend.

I've been out of magic for years...try Eek.

Saturday looks like a crappy slow recovery day too. Hopefully we can squeeze some sun and heat in Sun/Mon if the first half of the weekend fails.

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CoastalWx

CoastalWx

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Guess BOX is wrong with 80's and Front way north then.

 

No I wouldn't say that..but all models have front south of us at some point during weekend. As long as front is not close by, weather is fine. If front is well SW, it will still be warm inland. Just need to avoid clouds and rain. 

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Spanks45

Spanks45

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I was wondering that ... but, I don't think so.

It looks like as heights begin to rise over eastern N/A and adjacent west Atlantic as is sometimes the case the southern latitudes feature some mid and upper air trough that gets "severed" and is then left to whirl about as a shallow cut-off. I can see that happening over near the Bahamas...

The Canadian model notoriously over develops these "TUTTs" ... But having said that, sometimes in a blue moon a "book end" cyclone will spin up in the spring and late autumn. The roundy probabilities does slightly elevate that area during the next week. I'd say it could, but it's a long shot.

Thanks for the insight. I would typically root for a rainstorm like that and my garden could use the rain, but I would like to keep that week nice and dry, we are also planning on Key West for 4 night the following week. So the tropics need to stay quiet for a bit. Thanks Tip!
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Typhoon Tip

Typhoon Tip

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No I wouldn't say that..but all models have front south of us at some point during weekend. As long as front is not close by, weather is fine. If front is well SW, it will still be warm inland. Just need to avoid clouds and rain. 

GGEM was north ... :)

 

it was though ... but otherwise, yeah the "clean" heat look from yesterday's guidance is destroyed on the 00z - more dependable (typically) - runs.

 

not sure if I buy it (obviously) without continuity - as in ... more than one run.  the partial problem I have, which adds to the suspicion, is the the Euro and GFS go about it in different ways. that means they arrive at a surface solution by dumb luck.  moreover, relative to their own model runs they look dubiously over - developed in the lower troposphere/pressure pattern with that rapidly progressive maritime wave and its attending, backside bubble of high pressure.

 

normally ...that's how BDs form.  trough punch SE out of Ontario and backside NVA builds GOM PP and then that mass rolls SW up underneath the ridge rim drilling 48 F in to Boston under 582 heights.  but, rarely do we see that when the heights are above 588. but also, the flow looks too "flat" over the top of that ridge. it seems there isn't enough SE movement/orientation of that maritime wave's backside, deep-layer environment to really promote the necessary kinematics.  on Saturday, the GFS runs it close to 590 dm heights over Boston, with zippo confluence E/NE of Maine, yet has a wall of 50 F drizzle monster of a high reaching back in space and time like a cold tentacle of pettiness - ha. 

 

I don't know...it's like the models are keying in to "some" BD tendency and then over engineering it...

 

sides, its just as likely that yesterday's idea of cleanliness returns, anyway.  we're talking about details on a D7 chart :axe:

 

regardless of next weekend,...  my insane nerdliness really wants to see a GGEM Wednesday happen.  12z it's 53 F and light rain over central and eastern zones...  00z that following evening, I dunno what the temperatures are, but the 850s soar to 15 C and it's a west wind everywhere.  

 

snow and freezing temperatures are a human distinction.  I've opined all "lack of spring" how the atmospheric circulation medium mimicked winter (if merely transposed under a searing seasonal sun), but that day is a boundary cross.  winter -->  summer.

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CoastalWx

CoastalWx

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GGEM was north ... :)

 

it was though ... but otherwise, yeah the "clean" heat look from yesterday's guidance is destroyed on the 00z - more dependable (typically) - runs.

 

not sure if I buy it (obviously) without continuity - as in ... more than one run.  the partial problem I have, which adds to the suspicion, is the the Euro and GFS go about it in different ways. that means they arrive at a surface solution by dumb luck.  moreover, relative to their own model runs they look dubiously over - developed in the lower troposphere/pressure pattern with that rapidly progressive maritime wave and its attending, backside bubble of high pressure.

 

normally ...that's how BDs form.  trough punch SE out of Ontario and backside NVA builds GOM PP and then that mass rolls SW up underneath the ridge rim drilling 48 F in to Boston under 580 heights.  but, rarely do we see that when the heights are above 585, but also, the flow is "flat" over the top of that ridge and it seems there isn't enough SE movement of that maritime wave to really promote the kinematics.  on Saturday, the GFS runs it close to 590 dm heights over Boston, with zippo confluence E/NE of Maine, and has a wall of 50 F drizzle monster of a high pressure pressing down like a cold tentacle of pettiness - ha. 

 

I don't know...it's like the models are keying in to "some" BD tendency and then over engineering it...

 

sides, its just as likely that yesterday's idea of cleanliness returns, anyway.  we're talking about details on a D7 chart :axe:

 

regardless of next weekend,...  my insane nerdliness really wants to see a GGEM Wednesday happen.  12z it's 53 F and light rain over central and eastern zones...  00z that following evening, I dunno what the temperatures are, but the 850s soar to 15 C and it's a west wind everywhere.  

 

snow and freezing temperatures are a human distinction.  I've opined all "lack of spring" how the atmospheric circulation medium mimicked winter (if merely transposed under a searing seasonal sun), but that day is a boundary cross.  winter -->  summer.

 

You can see though that one trough departs and it's clear why the euro has retreating high pressure and se flow Friday. Another one tries to move into SE canada with more HP building in. Kevin jokes that I fear BDF...but on the other hand...they don't get enough respect either. Usually the BD gets the last laugh and all the MOS munchers eat crow. Like you said...it's 7 days out so we are purely musing over the details..but it's an interesting subject. 

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Typhoon Tip

Typhoon Tip

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You can see though that one trough departs and it's clear why the euro has retreating high pressure and se flow Friday. Another one tries to move into SE canada with more HP building in. Kevin jokes that I fear BDF...but on the other hand...they don't get enough respect either. Usually the BD gets the last laugh and all the MOS munchers eat crow. Like you said...it's 7 days out so we are purely musing over the details..but it's an interesting subject. 

 

right - and should emphasize as you rightfully did, BDs are a part of our tormented spring and early... well, ALL summer lives living on this "peninsula".

 

lay a straight-edge down on a map that intersects LGA and PWM;  any geographical location SE of that line "sticks out" into the west Atlantic, N of the G-string shelf waters, and that's a nice butt-bung canvas preparation H for all times/any given day.  with that static, in-movable circumstance in place at all times, it seems any heat wave around here almost has to be on borrowed time. 

 

part of the interesting physical make-up of the BD phenomenon is more than just the fluid mechanics of NVA built pressure discontinuity --> restoring.  it's the actual thermal residence of the GOM and adjacent maritimes waters.  that's cryospheric seawater at all times of the year.  the summer winter distinction "boils" down to "weather" there happens to be open water in one extreme, vs f ice floats ... if not being able to walk on harbor waters during deep blue cooling events, in the other.

 

i know, I've seen it ... recently even.  in 2015, i had to visit the UMass Boston campus for work, several times during that brutal February, and there were seagulls and terns standing out there turning their bird-brain heads around in dismay a quarter mile out from the seawalls.    

 

anyway, that is GINORMOUS thermal sink.  any backside NVA cool air mass is super charged with chill when it kisses ...hell, deep tongue makes out with that nut cracker cold.  101 Met: cold air is dense air.  Open the freezer door...watch the steam roll across the floor and freeze your f toes while it 90 F at the ceiling - that's a beautiful microcosmic experimental apparatus for BD misery right there. Adding that to the fluid mechanics of synoptic confluence ... wow.

 

...and, it's hypocritically funny really .. I've sat motionless, sweltering in 95/72 hell before, dreaming of cosmic AC. "God - i swear.  (pant pant).  i'll never cry about a back door again if you just please -"   nope. 

 

the other thing is, cove waters on east facing shores can get circumstantially warm-ish, JJA, with onshore flow and high sun angles warming the shallows.  but that's truly gossamer when the wind turns around and upwelling reminds us that the Labrador Current is synonymous with replacing life with misery.   the south shore waters can get a bit more massively warm. 

 

once in a long while, an eddy of warm G-string water will "rip off" and whirl it's way up into the NY Bite... I saw that once, way back in ...1998 I think it was... Narragansett Beach water temp was about as close to 80 F as I ever recall.  The water in between rocks when peering down from the causeway even began to take on that turquoise look. 

 

I've often wonder if/when a hurricane would ever time well with that,... one of those rare eras where the shelf-water typical climo was disrupted by an eddy whirl of G-string piss.  hmmm.   yummy.

 

J/k... i digress. 

 

Yeah, at the end of the day, ... despite my sarcasm about BD climo being at all times (above) ...now is definitely one of those times.  so, i think it is safe to never hang hat on any 'hot spell' in this region more than 4 days advance - it's really a matter of sidestepping synoptic bullets and surviving said outlooks into short range. 

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Typhoon Tip

Typhoon Tip

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well...just my opinion, but this whole ordeal with a coastal low, and the subsequent closing low aloft, all of it and the whole scenario looks like it's getting destroyed my seasonal normalization.

 

there's just not enough thermal gradients to sustain this via baroclinic, thermodynamic feed-back.  without that fundamental physical processing, these things will tend to do what this thing has done so far, and is likely to continue: spinning with more bark than bite overhead.  in fact, when the low finally does close aloft, I'm actually thinking that it's going to cause more of a convective instability on Tuesday more so than a strata misty wash-out thing. 

 

this thing just showed up at the wrong time of the year.  this is that trough that was given the wrong address and time, on purpose, by the cool kids, and then showed up ready to party but there was no one there.  send in the synoptic clowns -

 

still, it's not a party in lieu of less actual misery success.  it's just this sort of drab, non-committal to nastiness appeal - I've seen this a lot in April and Mays of years past, when a trough looked fierce in the runs but the lower troposphere didn't verify wanting any part of it.  we'll see if it finishes this way.  

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