CoastalWx Posted May 21, 2016 Author Share Posted May 21, 2016 If BOS could be 80 + for several days maybe. But like +0.2? It would basically be a cold month with a warm last 7 days. However some models still show BD potential....you can't just dismiss these in May when it's over a week out. June looks to have a warmer start relative to normal compared to last two months. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted May 21, 2016 Share Posted May 21, 2016 For the few that haven't yet..get em' in Dave Epstein @growingwisdom 1h 1 hour ago This is a great weekend to put in window unit air conditioners. You'll need them by next weekend. (GFS 4cast) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted May 21, 2016 Author Share Posted May 21, 2016 We hold off. We enjoy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted May 21, 2016 Share Posted May 21, 2016 We hold off. We enjoy.15 minutes install for the talented, l month lead for the special needs? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted May 21, 2016 Share Posted May 21, 2016 Some severe potential too if we bake Memorial Day weekend. Steady plume of steep mid level lapse rates. We'll see if we can get some shear as well - but it's not a horrible pattern for convection. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted May 21, 2016 Share Posted May 21, 2016 EML on Friday? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IrishRob17 Posted May 21, 2016 Share Posted May 21, 2016 15 minutes install for the talented, l month lead for the special needs?We don't know, what if we have to wipe some sweat from our dome...could take 16 minutes this year. We concerned... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted May 21, 2016 Share Posted May 21, 2016 Some severe potential too if we bake Memorial Day weekend. Steady plume of steep mid level lapse rates. We'll see if we can get some shear as well - but it's not a horrible pattern for convection. that's what I was thinking... I know this may sound overly imaginative, but that type near 90/65 type stuff, while still being outside the main subsidence of ridging strikes me as big frequent boom thunder. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
scoob40 Posted May 21, 2016 Share Posted May 21, 2016 Some severe potential too if we bake Memorial Day weekend. Steady plume of steep mid level lapse rates. We'll see if we can get some shear as well - but it's not a horrible pattern for convection. First chase of the season for the Wiz ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted May 21, 2016 Share Posted May 21, 2016 yes ... it is true ( ) the blend of the operational runs appears to favor 2 or 3 days of AC justifying ... above normal temperatures. I must warn though; the longer-lead GEF's -derived teleconnector spread pulls in the reigns on sustaining heat. In fact, this current operational blend has so-so support from that particular statistical source, even for the end of the week's warm up, as they are in process of flipping toward a cooler look right around then. Be that as it may, it's probably okay as the PNA enters the time of the year (the next 3 or so months) where its correlation on N/A tends to break down anyway. Wave lengths everywhere are shorter and the flow overall more nebular in nature. That stresses all correlations for that matter. Over the recent seven or so days, the PNA was negative, and the NAO was positive, yet the PNAP hasn't really reflected that very well and as a result ... we've been sort of sensibly if not actually closer to normal. Friday looks right up there, though. ...gee, +16.5 C at 850 on a light WSW wind and low 700 mb level RH .. okay - Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted May 21, 2016 Share Posted May 21, 2016 wow, I just more fully absorbed the operational Euro.. that's something of a look compared to anything recently. in fact, there's actually a Sonoran Release in the extended on that, and that's after the run offers up a day or two already 90+. Lemme illustrate... this is day 8 or 8.5. ...what gives this the "sudden release" of more heat potency appeal is that if we go back to 48 to 72 hours, the flow is "damming" the diurnally processed plateau air from migrating out the general Sonoran geographic area ... then as the pattern evolves toward the annotations above, that heat-processed atmosphere is 'released' ..as is partially signaled in this run. This is all subject to change ... but, this idea of the warm Mem day weekend has had legs actually. this is just the first (I've) seen it be this elaborately designed. the GFS and other operational guidance have their own take on matters - I like the top right panel there. This run indicates a classic I-95 lee-side heat trough. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Michael05192016 Posted May 21, 2016 Share Posted May 21, 2016 Just install this week and get it over with, so we don't have hear that word until next April. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Michael05192016 Posted May 21, 2016 Share Posted May 21, 2016 wow, I just more fully absorbed the operational Euro.. that's something of a look compared to anything recently. in fact, there's actually a Sonoran Release in the extended on that, and that's after the run offers up a day or two already 90+. Lemme illustrate... this is day 8 or 8.5. heat.jpg ...what gives this the "sudden release" of more heat potency appeal is that if we go back to 48 to 72 hours, the flow is "damming" the diurnally processed plateau air from migrating out the general Sonoran geographic area ... then as the pattern evolves toward the annotations above, that heat-processed atmosphere is 'released' ..as is partially signaled in this run. This is all subject to change ... but, this idea of the warm Mem day weekend has had legs actually. this is just the first (I've) seen it be this elaborately designed. the GFS and other operational guidance have their own take on matters - I like the top right panel there. I model indicates a class I-95 lee-side heat trough. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Michael05192016 Posted May 21, 2016 Share Posted May 21, 2016 A simple statement, T-shirt weather finally. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted May 21, 2016 Share Posted May 21, 2016 Of course things can change, but it's nice seeing 85F for CON on d8 MEX. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr. Windcredible! Posted May 21, 2016 Share Posted May 21, 2016 Holy torch on the Euro op right thru from Thursday thru entire weekend. That would be 90-95 with dews at BDL/CEF. Glad we all installedSeriously...can you imagine trying to cram an A/C install into the next 120 hours with temps pushing 70 at times? Talk about living on the edge!Honestly just thankful most of the rain this weekend misses to the south. The NAM finally caught on to the idea that a 1-2" deluge is not in the cards tonight and tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted May 21, 2016 Share Posted May 21, 2016 Seriously...can you imagine trying to cram an A/C install into the next 120 hours with temps pushing 70 at times? Talk about living on the edge! The fascination with a task that takes 20 minutes is quite amazing. The real irony is the dude that wants the hottest temps and highest dews is the guy most obsessed with getting the AC in and having the house climate controlled. There's something exhilarating about walking to the living room and checking the Davis console to see if dews are 70.1 or still only 69...while the AC hums away keeping it a steady 70F in the house. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted May 21, 2016 Share Posted May 21, 2016 Seriously...can you imagine trying to cram an A/C install into the next 120 hours with temps pushing 70 at times? Talk about living on the edge! Honestly just thankful most of the rain this weekend misses to the south. The NAM finally caught on to the idea that a 1-2" deluge is not in the cards tonight and tomorrow. I wouldn't mind some rain Sunday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr. Windcredible! Posted May 21, 2016 Share Posted May 21, 2016 I wouldn't mind some rain Sunday I'd take some showers overnight. But we'll be at the fields for a soccer tournament all day tomorrow...so would prefer to stay dry and the fields not be saturated. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted May 21, 2016 Share Posted May 21, 2016 12z NAM backed way off this coastal deal... actually keeps it pretty much dry W of 95 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted May 21, 2016 Share Posted May 21, 2016 Seriously...can you imagine trying to cram an A/C install into the next 120 hours with temps pushing 70 at times? Talk about living on the edge! Honestly just thankful most of the rain this weekend misses to the south. The NAM finally caught on to the idea that a 1-2" deluge is not in the cards tonight and tomorrow. Looks like we get no rain. Pattern persistence. Every event stays south. Really going back to winter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted May 21, 2016 Share Posted May 21, 2016 12z NAM backed way off this coastal deal... actually keeps it pretty much dry W of 95 God forbid--our interminable drought continues. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Spanks45 Posted May 21, 2016 Share Posted May 21, 2016 With the look of this pattern starting next weekend, seems like there is an increasing chance of something brewing off the Carolinas. It has been showing up on the GFS and now the Canadian. I only ask, because I will be in Hatteras that week. Any thoughts? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted May 21, 2016 Share Posted May 21, 2016 With the look of this pattern starting next weekend, seems like there is an increasing chance of something brewing off the Carolinas. It has been showing up on the GFS and now the Canadian. I only ask, because I will be in Hatteras that week. Any thoughts? I was wondering that ... but, I don't think so. It looks like as heights begin to rise over eastern N/A and adjacent west Atlantic as is sometimes the case the southern latitudes feature some mid and upper air trough that gets "severed" and is then left to whirl about as a shallow cut-off. I can see that happening over near the Bahamas... The Canadian model notoriously over develops these "TUTTs" ... But having said that, sometimes in a blue moon a "book end" cyclone will spin up in the spring and late autumn. The roundy probabilities does slightly elevate that area during the next week. I'd say it could, but it's a long shot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted May 21, 2016 Share Posted May 21, 2016 Installing is a touch screen away. Used it for a few hours last weekend and later this week seems we put the chill behind us and push that button again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted May 21, 2016 Share Posted May 21, 2016 welp, the 12z Euro held serve with the general appeal of matters ... no Sonoran air plume in this run, but a solid 3.5 days of positive departures. Wednesday is an interesting day there. GGEM and GFS show something similar... They all have the heat walled off by the lingering effects of the filling closed low and the prior days mist (those affects in themselves a bit in question) early in the day, but then at some point in the daylight the wind flips off shore and the day transitions really abruptly to summer ... which then locks in through next weekend. GFS offers some decent destabilization that day, too - Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted May 21, 2016 Share Posted May 21, 2016 I wouldn't mind some rain Sunday It's definitely dry here, we missed the rains to our E the other day. Not too many flying insects though and that's nice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted May 22, 2016 Share Posted May 22, 2016 Man..another inferno Euro run with +18 C..That's 90+ again..no evidence of backdoorism either Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted May 22, 2016 Author Share Posted May 22, 2016 Man..another inferno Euro run with +18 C..That's 90+ again..no evidence of backdoorism either There is definitely a front in CNE. Gotta watch that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted May 22, 2016 Share Posted May 22, 2016 There is definitely a front in CNE. Gotta watch that. Well yeah I was looking more SNE centric Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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