Typhoon Tip Posted May 18, 2016 Share Posted May 18, 2016 yeah... i have more confidence in the wave skirting by underneath us over the late weekend than I do the closed-low idea later next week. still time for that to prove over-cooked in the models... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted May 18, 2016 Author Share Posted May 18, 2016 Nice rainstorm on the GFS, esp south of pike later Saturday into Sunday morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted May 18, 2016 Author Share Posted May 18, 2016 Where is my 75-85 from now through June 1? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted May 18, 2016 Author Share Posted May 18, 2016 I thought we will all be AN? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted May 18, 2016 Share Posted May 18, 2016 I thought we will all be AN? -4.5 on the month at MVL with numerous below freezing mornings and two days with snow in the air haha. Somewhere DIT is throwing his laptop against the wall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted May 18, 2016 Share Posted May 18, 2016 -4.5 on the month at MVL with numerous below freezing mornings and two days with snow in the air haha. Somewhere DIT is throwing his laptop against the wall. meanwhile ... NASA just released their monthly global climate findings and the world is in a relative inferno during that same time. Somewhere DIT feels picked on Lest we forget ... this oddly persistent negative in the longer term means, spanning SE/E Canada and the NE U.S. is hugely enabling a false perception on the state of the world ... - we could certainly have been broiling along with the rest of it, and by proximity to the Eart vs us, spectacular perfectly targeting ... ha! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted May 18, 2016 Share Posted May 18, 2016 Nice rainstorm on the GFS, esp south of pike later Saturday into Sunday morning. Let's not. My sister is getting married at MTP Sunday and I'm really not into answering forecast questions over and over from all the wedding guests all weekend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted May 18, 2016 Share Posted May 18, 2016 Euro says no rain north of NYC except far SE Ma ..Funny how all the footballs were spiked and people urinating all over me Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted May 18, 2016 Share Posted May 18, 2016 meanwhile ... NASA just released their monthly global climate findings and the world is in a relative inferno during that same time. Somewhere DIT feels picked on Lest we forget ... this oddly persistent negative in the longer term means, spanning SE/E Canada and the NE U.S. is hugely enabling a false perception on the state of the world ... - we could certainly have been broiling along with the rest of it, and by proximity to the Eart vs us, spectacular perfectly targeting ... ha! We went through our "boiling vs the rest of the world" period basically from mid 2011-2013. In that two year stretch we averaged about 1.5C higher than the '81-'10 baseline which would be about 5-6 times higher than you'd expect based on the underlying AGW trend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CapturedNature Posted May 18, 2016 Share Posted May 18, 2016 We went through our "boiling vs the rest of the world" period basically from mid 2011-2013. In that two year stretch we averaged about 1.5C higher than the '81-'10 baseline which would be about 5-6 times higher than you'd expect based on the underlying AGW trend. The map I saw was based on the 1951-1980 averages which are cooler than the '81-'10 averages. Not sure why that period was picked rather than the more recent period. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted May 18, 2016 Share Posted May 18, 2016 The map I saw was based on the 1951-1980 averages which are cooler than the '81-'10 averages. Not sure why that period was picked rather than the more recent period. GISS always uses '51-'80 to keep everything homogenous...since it was started in 1981 I think. But regardless, my post above still stands in that it's totally normal for us to have periods above the trend line and below it. It was our turn recently for one below it....esp in El Nino this is not uncommon. SE Canada temps have an inverse correlation to ENSO. In a Super El Nino like this year, it is even more pronounced when there are pockets of cooler anomalies since the warmth dominates the northern hemisphere even more. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted May 18, 2016 Share Posted May 18, 2016 We went through our "boiling vs the rest of the world" period basically from mid 2011-2013. In that two year stretch we averaged about 1.5C higher than the '81-'10 baseline which would be about 5-6 times higher than you'd expect based on the underlying AGW trend. oh certainly ... chalk it up to we're getting lucky i suppose... somehow though, i just get the feeling winter's going to be bad (or good depending on one's point of view...) this year and it's going to keep right on going. and, i wonder if the typical post NINO hot summer flash fails too - interesting Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
codfishsnowman Posted May 18, 2016 Share Posted May 18, 2016 Let's not. My sister is getting married at MTP Sunday and I'm really not into answering forecast questions over and over from all the wedding guests all weekend. in 25-35 ne winds? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted May 18, 2016 Share Posted May 18, 2016 in 25-35 ne winds? Saturday night would be ugly. GFS Bufkit soundings aren't terrible under the upper low. Mostly light northerly winds and showers around. I can live with that. Not sure my sister can though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted May 18, 2016 Share Posted May 18, 2016 heh, just the same... I bet if we took the cool periods and compared them to the warm periods, the warm ones would tend to be larger in SD than the cool ones... Otherwise, our neck of the woods truly would be disconnected from the global warming signal Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted May 18, 2016 Share Posted May 18, 2016 Saturday night would be ugly. GFS Bufkit soundings aren't terrible under the upper low. Mostly light northerly winds and showers around. I can live with that. Not sure my sister can though. Get the bad weather out of the way for her wedding - save the good stuff for your own! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted May 19, 2016 Share Posted May 19, 2016 Get the bad weather out of the way for her wedding - save the good stuff for your own! Maybe I'll float that idea her way after a few champagne toasts! At least since my vacation the crappy patterns are delivering temps in the 50s and 60s up here instead of 40s. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted May 19, 2016 Share Posted May 19, 2016 I'm not going to be able to chase at all this year at this rate. Stupid Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted May 19, 2016 Share Posted May 19, 2016 I'm not going to be able to chase at all this year at this rate. StupidThis seems a lot like cancelling winter on December 15th.How many severe events do you usually chase by the third week of May? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted May 19, 2016 Share Posted May 19, 2016 I'm not going to be able to chase at all this year at this rate. Stupid Take a look at this set up on the 27th. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SlantStickers Anonymous Posted May 19, 2016 Share Posted May 19, 2016 This seems a lot like cancelling winter on December 15th. How many severe events do you usually chase by the third week of May? Yeah but... We actually get winters here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Miser Posted May 19, 2016 Share Posted May 19, 2016 Euro says no rain north of NYC except far SE Ma ..Funny how all the footballs were spiked and people urinating all over me Just saw this and I have to admit I lol'd pretty hard. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted May 19, 2016 Share Posted May 19, 2016 you gotta love this typified GGEM solution ... 120 hours ... has BUF probably 87 F while it's 48 F in BOS with drilling N mist.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Miser Posted May 19, 2016 Share Posted May 19, 2016 you gotta love this typified GGEM solution ... 120 hours ... has BUF probably 87 F while it's 48 F in BOS with drilling N mist.... lol...That's what Eastern New England, early Spring dreams are made of. But wait, it's not early Spring by then. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted May 19, 2016 Share Posted May 19, 2016 lol...That's what Eastern New England, early Spring dreams are made of. But wait, it's not early Spring by then. frankly it's getting eerie seeing these models ...seemingly engineer reasons to pull this crap. their own teleconncectors offer plenty of latitude to at last correct the flow yet they resist... just when the Euro finally rids of it, ...finds a way to drill in the most powerful BD front ever recorded that extended... the mechanics fore creating that are half way to England the front's going through Dallas it seems ...heh... maybe we won't get any summer at all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted May 19, 2016 Share Posted May 19, 2016 ...heh... maybe we won't get any summer at all. Currently -TSSN at MWN. Let's just keep winter 2015-2016 rolling on! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted May 19, 2016 Share Posted May 19, 2016 'course ... as a matter of convenience to their evil plot to maintain New England as the only counter-balancing cool anomaly world over ... the tele's now completely destroy June and argue snow should fall with that spread... good luck with summer in a +3 PNA and a -3 NAO tandem - that's gonna be a neat trick. i guess we always got the EPS ha! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Miser Posted May 19, 2016 Share Posted May 19, 2016 frankly it's getting eerie seeing these models ...seemingly engineer reasons to pull this crap. their own teleconncectors offer plenty of latitude to at last correct the flow yet they resist... just when the Euro finally rids of it, ...finds a way to drill in the most powerful BD front ever recorded that extended... the mechanics fore creating that are half way to England the front's going through Dallas it seems ...heh... maybe we won't get any summer at all. That is not possible...People in parts of CT installed a.c. last month. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Michael05192016 Posted May 19, 2016 Share Posted May 19, 2016 I don't like the 2009 look for June. Not one bit with the strong blocking. Is it a real long time before severe? HATING that backdoor cold front from hell for Memorial Day weekend being progged. 50's and drizzle all weekend. Enough with that word "install". More like we should never have installed this year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted May 19, 2016 Share Posted May 19, 2016 well... one upshot to a solution like the 12z GGEM - if that verified, moderation will certainly lose patience with Kevin and 5 post warn him for posting the word drought ever again ... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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