Damage In Tolland Posted May 17, 2016 Share Posted May 17, 2016 Was referring to the probabilities of .. Not the clusterfook Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted May 17, 2016 Share Posted May 17, 2016 The OP Euro is probably the southern outlier right now for late weekend/early next week. Model skill is going to be lower though than in winter with the weaker flow and cutoff nature of these systems. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted May 17, 2016 Share Posted May 17, 2016 Noticed the Canadian shifted south too Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted May 17, 2016 Share Posted May 17, 2016 Noticed the Canadian shifted south too You're really invested in this missing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Valley Snowman Posted May 17, 2016 Share Posted May 17, 2016 We'll see what happens at 12Z . It can very well end up missing us to the south but to look at that evidence as it stands now and say that its guaranteed is definitely wishcasting. The same thing with thinking that all next week is going to be sunny and 75 to 80 as if it's guaranteed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Valley Snowman Posted May 17, 2016 Share Posted May 17, 2016 GFS looks pretty wet south of the pike late Saturday /early Sunday. Heaviest precip towards the south coast and just offshore but .5+ for most of CT. I certainly don't want rain on the weekend but we could use a little rain for the flowers/gardens. Like others alluded to, nailing down a track this time of year is tricky. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted May 17, 2016 Share Posted May 17, 2016 ...in Kev's defense ... the GFS does look S and complete miss for the cut-off next week: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted May 17, 2016 Share Posted May 17, 2016 Euro came north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mob1 Posted May 17, 2016 Share Posted May 17, 2016 Euro came north.It also has a tight sexy little bomb at day 7 south of LI, that would certainly make things slightly less boring. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted May 17, 2016 Share Posted May 17, 2016 That's a TS moving into the area early next week. Yes please Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted May 17, 2016 Share Posted May 17, 2016 Noticed the Canadian shifted south too That model has been doing well the past couple years. For someone concerned about drought, I'm confused as to why you are not rooting this system on like you would in the winter. In January this would be a slam dunk south of the Pike snow event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted May 17, 2016 Share Posted May 17, 2016 It also has a tight sexy little bomb at day 7 south of LI, that would certainly make things slightly less boring. Yeah the upper level low really deepens to our south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted May 17, 2016 Share Posted May 17, 2016 That model has been doing well the past couple years. For someone concerned about drought, I'm confused as to why you are not rooting this system on like you would in the winter. In January this would be a slam dunk south of the Pike snow event. He's rooting for drought...you haven't gotten that by now? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted May 17, 2016 Share Posted May 17, 2016 He's rooting for drought...you haven't gotten that by now? It's all so confusing it'll make your head spin .Wants drought so can hype something, but wants rain for the lawn, but only if it's the right kind of rain and fits the narrative (see response to Tippy about GFS). If it's an inch of synoptic rain from a cut-off we'd rather just stick with the drought card and water the lawn from a hose. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted May 17, 2016 Share Posted May 17, 2016 I'd forego the drought if that cane on the euro would verify Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted May 17, 2016 Share Posted May 17, 2016 That's a TS moving into the area early next week. Yes please Totally looks like a TS... except it's extratropical. Looks like clouds, cool temperatures, a breeze and showers. Fantastic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted May 17, 2016 Share Posted May 17, 2016 Totally looks like a TS... except it's extratropical. Looks like clouds, cool temperatures, a breeze and showers. Fantastic. Yeah the whole cold core thing kind of screws up the tropical argument. That would be a nasty cold nor' easter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted May 17, 2016 Share Posted May 17, 2016 Ughhh we're never going to get severe weather with these stupid POS idiotic off-season piece of crap patterns. This is just getting beyond ridiculous now. It's at a point where even just slightly below-average temps feel so warm b/c we have these dumb cold air masses in place all the time...and not to mention the fooking winds...every single day it has to be windy. Enough is enough and this **** has to change b/c of we go through June like this ****s going to hit the fan. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted May 17, 2016 Share Posted May 17, 2016 I'd forego the drought if that cane on the euro would verify So you do want a drought even with your grass obsession? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted May 17, 2016 Author Share Posted May 17, 2016 Ughhh we're never going to get severe weather with these stupid POS idiotic off-season piece of crap patterns. This is just getting beyond ridiculous now. It's at a point where even just slightly below-average temps feel so warm b/c we have these dumb cold air masses in place all the time...and not to mention the fooking winds...every single day it has to be windy. Enough is enough and this **** has to change b/c of we go through June like this ****s going to hit the fan. It's SNE. Deal with it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted May 17, 2016 Share Posted May 17, 2016 any joking and righteous embarrassing Kevin by pointing out how he's been wrong 10 out of 10 times this week aside ... i'm wondering if that cut-off idea ends up over amped, like the last one ( a facet that got lost in an overall cool pattern to begin with...). we'll see... one thing, it's occurring in the apex of the NAO rise, which is anti-correlated to some degree, ..but ironically the flow lifting and "stranding" dynamics could also fit in just the same. hmm. if that sucker were to occur it certainly would validate the hell outta all those drought mongering posts ... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
codfishsnowman Posted May 17, 2016 Share Posted May 17, 2016 It's SNE. Deal with it. I guess it is akin to me wishing to be the 2 foot plus jackpot in a winter noreaster, I understand his frustration Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted May 17, 2016 Author Share Posted May 17, 2016 I guess it is akin to me wishing to be the 2 foot plus jackpot in a winter noreaster, I understand his frustration SNE sucks for severe. Period. It's like being in RDU and wishing for a KU. Sorry just does not happen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted May 18, 2016 Share Posted May 18, 2016 SNE sucks for severe. Period. It's like being in RDU and wishing for a KU. Sorry just does not happen. No it sucks for widespread sig severe events. Everytime severe potential is mentioned everyone assumes it has to be some big widespread type deal Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted May 18, 2016 Author Share Posted May 18, 2016 No it sucks for widespread sig severe events. Everytime severe potential is mentioned everyone assumes it has to be some big widespread type deal I don't count 35kt wind damage. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted May 18, 2016 Author Share Posted May 18, 2016 Looks like rain is a higher confidence now this weekend. The low is trending closer. Hopefully Saturday is ok. Also could be a multi day cool wet period should the ULL next week swing that low NW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted May 18, 2016 Share Posted May 18, 2016 Looks like rain is a higher confidence now this weekend. The low is trending closer. Hopefully Saturday is ok. Also could be a multi day cool wet period should the ULL next week swing that low NW.AMOUT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted May 18, 2016 Share Posted May 18, 2016 I don't count 35kt wind damage. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted May 18, 2016 Share Posted May 18, 2016 well ... i don't believe that, either. tell that the tornado deaths spanning decades, people. Wiz' enthusiasm aside, he's right - it's a 'widespread' vs interpretation issue. Although, i might also add the term 'frequency' to that argument; it obviously doesn't happen as often. That may leave those with on-going lust for big excitement ... disgruntled and probably jaded/inclined to making blanket sarcasm re our region. do we get scud-stripped/exposed updraft exposures clear to 30 K, with sparse softballs caving in farmer's skulls from undulating green tinted mammata? one could say 'never' and probably based on history alone they'd be pretty close to correct. however, we do get well formed HP supercells from time to time. obviously we all know this... well, just looking over things. i'm thrilled to report that the "major" heat wave slated to replace the "monster" cool-down JB tweeted out to his gushing fans in awe last week ... has about a 5% chance of occurring at this point. things do look like they could get 'seasonally hot' toward the first week of June maybe... but, that's so far out in time, may as well cook up a whole 'nother butt banger tele signal. i'm beginning to think this weird SE Can/NE U.S. cool sink that's dominating the last three years running might be a consequence of GW... I mean, other areas of the world are statistically entered their own unusual persistence ...maybe this is just what the Pac/N/A pattern does in a warm earth. ... just sayn'. i'm sure we'll get heat waves and so forth ... but we did just traverse two winters back to back in NINA ...then, a solid NINO, and all three had deeply violated butt sore springs... and I include last year in my opine rage despite the warm May, because April and the first half of June was frigid and that summed/3 the winter into = a big piece of schit transition season in my mind. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dan Posted May 18, 2016 Share Posted May 18, 2016 Looks like rain is a higher confidence now this weekend. The low is trending closer. Hopefully Saturday is ok. Also could be a multi day cool wet period should the ULL next week swing that low NW. You rainy cold weather lover. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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