Damage In Tolland Posted May 6, 2016 Share Posted May 6, 2016 Personally i don't think the Euro is going to be correct. As it is..it warm sectors much of CT next Wednesday. At any rate, my thinking is Monday is mid-upper 60's after a cool morning, and then Tu-Th are 70 or higher. Intresting to see today's 12z Euro trend much warmer next week with some ridging . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted May 6, 2016 Share Posted May 6, 2016 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted May 6, 2016 Share Posted May 6, 2016 Sweeping changes across the board.We are on the cusp.. The siege is over MONDAY... WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT AND AT THE SURFACE CONTINUES ON MONDAY AND MODELCROSS SECTIONS INDICATE AT LEAST PARTIAL SUNSHINE. ALTHOUGH 850TARE ONLY BETWEEN +2C AND +4C...WESTERLY FLOW AND SOME SUN THIS TIMEOF YEAR SHOULD ALLOW AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPS TO REACH WELL INTO THE 60STO PERHAPS EVEN SOME LOWER 70S. IT WILL BE BREEZY THOUGH WITHWESTERLY WIND GUSTS OF 20 TO 30 MPH.TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...THERE HAS BEEN A CONSIDERABLE SHIFT WITH THE AFTERNOON MODELGUIDANCE. LAST NIGHT/S 00Z MODELS DEPICTED A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURETRACKING JUST SOUTH OF OUR REGION...RESULTING IN RAW EASTERLY WINDSAND A PERIOD OF COOL/WET WEATHER. MOST OF THE 12Z GUIDANCE HASBACKED AWAY FROM THAT...AS THEY NOW SHOW CANADIAN HIGH PRESSUREFORCING THE LOW WELL TO OUR SOUTH. THE RESULT WOULD BE PARTLY SUNNYSKIES WITH JUST THE LOW RISK FOR A FEW BRIEF SHOWERS AND MILDAFTERNOONS.WE DID NOT WANT TO MAKE A DRASTIC ADJUSTMENT BASED ON JUST THE 12ZGUIDANCE 4 TO 5 DAYS IN THE FUTURE...BUT DID TREND MILDER ANDLOWERED POPS. A FEW 12Z GEFS MEMBERS ALONG WITH THE CMC STILLINDICATE THE POTENTIAL FOR A PERIOD OF COOL/WET WEATHER. SO TOSUMMARIZE...ITS TOO EARLY TO LOCK IN A DRY/MILD SOLUTION BUT DIDTREND A BIT MORE IN THAT DIRECTION.THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...SEASONABLE TO EVEN ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED. DRY WEATHERLIKELY THURSDAY...BUT A COLD FRONT MAY BRING A PERIOD OF SHOWERSSOMETIME FRIDAY AND/OR FRIDAY NIGHT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tamarack Posted May 6, 2016 Share Posted May 6, 2016 I was actually surprised last month was as cool as it was. The abundant sunshine really really skewed my perception and made it a pleasant month imo. Might also have to do with being on the shoreline, where we're used to temperatures nose-diving back into the lower 50's in the afternoon in April regardless of how warm the midday make it. Key to coolness at my place was clear, calm nights. We radiate extremely well on those occasions, such that April's avg minimum was the coolest of my 18, while the mean was 3rd coolest, barely slipping below last year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted May 6, 2016 Share Posted May 6, 2016 A beauty out there... near 70F at home and near 60F at the Picnic Tables at 4000ft. Full sunshine all day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted May 6, 2016 Share Posted May 6, 2016 right on schedule per the original GEFs signal from days ago ... flagging the 2nd week of May for the normality to make a come back ... as far as above normal, as i've said before the base line climate state argues that "normal" is decimals above the 30 -year mean to atone for the rise, so if we are slightly above normal - my personal math (haha) does't really call that above normal. anyway, the GEFs are currently dicey for sustaining anything too warm. but transitory nature with limited ridging is also the common route in May so - Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MaineJayhawk Posted May 6, 2016 Share Posted May 6, 2016 A beauty out there... near 70F at home and near 60F at the Picnic Tables at 4000ft. Full sunshine all day. Shut 'em down Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmillz25 Posted May 6, 2016 Share Posted May 6, 2016 You guys are lucky. Its been 50 and rain/drizzle here practically all week Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted May 7, 2016 Share Posted May 7, 2016 You guys are lucky. Its been 50 and rain/drizzle here practically all weekits been that way for everyone south of CNE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted May 7, 2016 Author Share Posted May 7, 2016 Shut 'em down In and up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmillz25 Posted May 7, 2016 Share Posted May 7, 2016 its been that way for everyone south of CNEI see smh. Blocking ftl Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Randy4Confluence Posted May 7, 2016 Share Posted May 7, 2016 You guys are lucky. Its been 50 and rain/drizzle here practically all week It's been 40's and rain/drizzle all week here. It's been unbelievably chilly in downtown Boston with that breeze. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmillz25 Posted May 7, 2016 Share Posted May 7, 2016 It's been 40's and rain/drizzle all week here. It's been unbelievably chilly in downtown Boston with that breeze.Yep feels more like March Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted May 7, 2016 Author Share Posted May 7, 2016 Looks like temps finally get near normal in the 6-15 day. No real prolonged big warmth though quite yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted May 7, 2016 Share Posted May 7, 2016 Man, the few hours of sun yesterday felt great. Managed to hit 60.4* before the clouds and rain moved back in.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted May 7, 2016 Share Posted May 7, 2016 BDL "may" approach 80 middle of this upcoming week Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted May 7, 2016 Share Posted May 7, 2016 BDL "may" approach 80 middle of this upcoming week I'll take the under Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted May 7, 2016 Share Posted May 7, 2016 BOX offering some hope this afternoon. Get these last heavy showers that were not forecast on air last night out of here and hopefully that's it OTHERWISE...EXPECT GRADUAL CLEARING THIS AFTERNOON WHICH WILL LEAD TO A BIG DIFFERENCE IN HIGHS WHICH WILL HOLD IN THE 40S AND 50SACROSS NE AND E COASTAL MA...TO THE LOW-MID 60S WHERE THE SUNBREAKS OUT. LATEST MAV/2M GFS/NAM TEMPS SHOW THIS BEST. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted May 7, 2016 Share Posted May 7, 2016 BOX offering some hope this afternoon. Get these last heavy showers that were not forecast on air last night out of here and hopefully that's it OTHERWISE...EXPECT GRADUAL CLEARING THIS AFTERNOON WHICH WILL LEAD TO A BIG DIFFERENCE IN HIGHS WHICH WILL HOLD IN THE 40S AND 50S ACROSS NE AND E COASTAL MA...TO THE LOW-MID 60S WHERE THE SUN BREAKS OUT. LATEST MAV/2M GFS/NAM TEMPS SHOW THIS BEST. Thankfully we had "scattered morning showers" in the forecast with improvement by the afternoon. I will say though the models are handling this mornings rain/convection very poorly. HRRR has nothing. I'm a bit worried today has the potential to be pretty unsettled with that ULL nearby and a bit of elevated instability developing with colder air moving in aloft. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted May 7, 2016 Share Posted May 7, 2016 Thankfully we had "scattered morning showers" in the forecast with improvement by the afternoon. I will say though the models are handling this mornings rain/convection very poorly. HRRR has nothing. I'm a bit worried today has the potential to be pretty unsettled with that ULL nearby and a bit of elevated instability developing with colder air moving in aloft. Maybe some bangers? Just keep them out of Watertown between 5-6:30. State cup game Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted May 7, 2016 Share Posted May 7, 2016 Thankfully we had "scattered morning showers" in the forecast with improvement by the afternoon. I will say though the models are handling this mornings rain/convection very poorly. HRRR has nothing. I'm a bit worried today has the potential to be pretty unsettled with that ULL nearby and a bit of elevated instability developing with colder air moving in aloft. yea ULL cold pockets always are worrisome in May. Have a 4 pm game in Norwich, hopefully the rain holds off. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted May 7, 2016 Share Posted May 7, 2016 Tips no 0 850s didn't last long Sunday night and then this disaster on todays Euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted May 7, 2016 Share Posted May 7, 2016 Tips no 0 850s didn't last long Sunday night and then this disaster on todays Euro. Nothing like a F192 op run to build the excited. Meanwhile, each forecast update is lowering the winds tomorrow. Yesterday was showing gusts to 40, now down to 30. Yawn. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted May 7, 2016 Share Posted May 7, 2016 Nothing like a F192 op run to build the excited. enjoy the pool its the only pool you got Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted May 7, 2016 Share Posted May 7, 2016 Tips no 0 850s didn't last long Sunday night and then this disaster on todays Euro. Haha...disaster, looks like nice mild down. And you know there's a large part of you that enjoys seeing the sub 850 temps regardless of the season . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted May 7, 2016 Share Posted May 7, 2016 Haha...disaster, looks like nice mild down. And you know there's a large part of you that enjoys seeing the sub 850 temps regardless of the season .nope in baseball mode,been brutal,nothing good about it at all. Got me wrong on this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted May 7, 2016 Share Posted May 7, 2016 enjoy the pool its the only pool you got LOL--I'm not the pool person. My wife and daughter are. I just get the pleasure cleaning it. Haha...disaster, looks like nice mild down. And you know there's a large part of you that enjoys seeing the sub 850 temps regardless of the season . I welcome those any time of year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted May 7, 2016 Author Share Posted May 7, 2016 The extended still looks near to even a bit BN. Difference being we have more continental flow so the sun will certainly shine a lot more than we've been used to. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted May 7, 2016 Share Posted May 7, 2016 Tips no 0 850s didn't last long Sunday night and then this disaster on todays Euro. now to apply the context in which I was discussing that ...so as to not allow it to be spun the way you're using it: that was based upon a particular run cycle depiction... and it's true.. the context over all was thematic, the region will recover substantially during this next week. also, that run has no chance of verifying and will modulate warm in future cycles. 90% certain of that - Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted May 7, 2016 Share Posted May 7, 2016 The extended still looks near to even a bit BN. Difference being we have more continental flow so the sun will certainly shine a lot more than we've been used to. I don't think it looks below normal at all. not even "a bit"... we'll see how it play out - but my reasons are also more abstract than synoptics/teleconnectors. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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