Chinook Posted August 16, 2016 Author Share Posted August 16, 2016 Sunset in the neighborhood a few nights ago. I don't post many sunset pics to the internet. On different twitter feeds (covering weather) I see all sorts of cool sunset pics from around the country. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mayjawintastawm Posted August 18, 2016 Share Posted August 18, 2016 WPC says general 0.75-1" for everyplace east of the mountains over the next 7 days. I'll eat the dried out bush at the corner of my yard that the sprinklers miss if that actually happens. EDIT: they backed way off on that this AM, now more like 0.25-0.5". More realistic if more frustrating. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted August 18, 2016 Author Share Posted August 18, 2016 While in a drought, nothing seems to work. It is the WPC's job to sort of over-forecast rain, that is, they put numbers on the map that are indicative of some of the higher possibilities in a region. On today's US Drought monitor, Fort Collins to Denver is now in D1 drought. It is a pretty narrow area. My house has gotten 1.58" since summer started. Averages for Fort Collins are June 2.17, July 1.71, August 1.59. So my place has gotten less rain in 2 1/2 months than we should get in any 1 calendar month of summer. In my 10 years in Fort Collins, summers have averaged hotter and drier than normal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ValpoVike Posted August 18, 2016 Share Posted August 18, 2016 Today we picked up 0.23" here just north of Estes. This is the most rain that I have seen in a single day in two months. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mayjawintastawm Posted August 18, 2016 Share Posted August 18, 2016 1.25" at Centennial Airport (3 mi from my house) since the start of astronomical summer, 60 days. More like 3" since 6/1 though because early June was wet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted August 19, 2016 Author Share Posted August 19, 2016 There's finally some rain up north here, large hail reported at Wellington. My place is getting light rain. There are some moderate-heavy rain cores. Severe warning for Greeley. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mayjawintastawm Posted August 19, 2016 Share Posted August 19, 2016 Greeley Airport had a wind gust to 81 mph at 3:35? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
raindancewx Posted August 20, 2016 Share Posted August 20, 2016 Summer 2016 is turning into a weird summer here, I think we're going to have the biggest drop off in mean highs from July to August in at least 85 years in Albuquerque. 95.6F-->~87F? Record drop is 7.6F. Most years July-->Aug is drops by 3F to 5F, last year was odd too, Aug was way warmer than July, greatest increase from July to Aug since 1931. The rest of the month look fairly cool for August - so this may end up as one of our coldest Augusts after one of our hottest Julys - can't find a pattern anything like that in the records here. Every other July is in the middle of a smoldering hot Summer, with the other months all normal to blazing, never cool. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted August 20, 2016 Author Share Posted August 20, 2016 Well I would have expected some hail reports from Greeley, southeastward towards DIA. That 70kt (81mph) is now on the SPC storm reports list. Raindance- Alamosa CO is also down 6.8F for high temps for Aug 1-18 compared to July Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted August 20, 2016 Author Share Posted August 20, 2016 wow, is it still summer? my place is colder than Yellowstone (KP60) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
raindancewx Posted August 20, 2016 Share Posted August 20, 2016 3 minutes ago, Chinook said: wow, is it still summer? my place is colder than Yellowstone (KP60) I was pretty sure we'd get a cool month in Aug-Oct, with the +PDO briefly taking over before the weak La Nina/neutral pattern gets established for the winter. If it ends up being August, I'll be a bit surprised, I was leaning towards a normal Aug/Oct with a cold September (maybe some snow above 8,000 feet in NM, and over 6,000 feet in CO). For whatever reason July rains/temp is a decent indicator of early snow here (Oct 10 - Jan 10), with August a decent indicator of late snow (Jan 11 - Apr 10) so that's kind of what I expect now - torch in Nov/Dec, cold in Feb/Mar, some kind of violent transition in January (we've had a weak monsoon here in NM - but we did get ~1.4" rain from July 29-Aug 4, so when that period cycles through the MJO, into winter, will be watching). Last three years July was wet and avg to cold, and we had lots of good snow in both the valleys/mountains early. In 2015, Aug was also cold, and we got a ****load of snow late Feb/early March/ and then again in mid-Feb. Last year, Aug was hot and dry, couldn't buy a drop of rain/snow here at all in March, and Feb was also dry/warm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ValpoVike Posted August 20, 2016 Share Posted August 20, 2016 At the house, exactly 0.50" yesterday and 0.73" for the two day total. Not enough, but certainly better than anticipated. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mayjawintastawm Posted August 20, 2016 Share Posted August 20, 2016 Good for you. We eked out just under 0.10". Nothing over that since the hailstone pic I posted what seems like months ago. at least it's cooler! 45 this AM around 6:30. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted August 20, 2016 Author Share Posted August 20, 2016 My place got 0.09". Fort Collins got about 0.08" to 0.40" yesterday. It was in the 50's in the evening and it was in the 40's for the morning low. That's the first 40's for a long time. Cheyenne got to 38. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
raindancewx Posted August 22, 2016 Share Posted August 22, 2016 We had our first sub 80F high in the city today since June 1st. This pattern flip is really impressive to me - we had 32 days at or over 95F in June and July, and then none since, with none in the foreseeable future. Aug mean high is down to 87.85F through 21 days, with Accuweather showing every day from 8/22 to 8/31 with a high <=85F. Parts of NM seem like they've had rain almost every day in August. Snowed in NM overnight too (granted, 12,000 feet up). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mayjawintastawm Posted August 22, 2016 Share Posted August 22, 2016 Sooner or later that moisture and cool weather has to make its way... north... Portland would love to see some of that right now. 103 in the Columbia Valley this past weekend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted August 28, 2016 Author Share Posted August 28, 2016 So far this month, CO, WY, NM and MT have been near normal to below normal temperatures. I hear that the East Coast has some cities that have had a record-warm August so far, even with that +2F to +4F orange shade on this map, that's much above average. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted August 29, 2016 Author Share Posted August 29, 2016 It looks like 1 to 4" of rain has happened in Colorado Springs, but I'm not sure. Storms may be stalling near Denver, but not that much rain has fallen in Denver. 308 PM MDT MON AUG 29 2016 THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN PUEBLO HAS EXTENDED THE * FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR... EXCESSIVE RAIN IN... NORTHWESTERN EL PASO COUNTY IN EAST CENTRAL COLORADO... * UNTIL 430 PM MDT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
raindancewx Posted August 29, 2016 Share Posted August 29, 2016 It's very difficult to get a good temperature match for August 2016 in the US from analogs, but this works pretty well: 2007 x4 2006 x4 2005 x4 1974 x8 1995, 2011, 2010, 2014, 1998 can be useful to include too - but the combo above is quite close to the anomaly map for the month you see on Weatherbell from the satellites. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mayjawintastawm Posted August 30, 2016 Share Posted August 30, 2016 4 hours ago, Chinook said: It looks like 1 to 4" of rain has happened in Colorado Springs, but I'm not sure. Storms may be stalling near Denver, but not that much rain has fallen in Denver. 308 PM MDT MON AUG 29 2016 THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN PUEBLO HAS EXTENDED THE * FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR... EXCESSIVE RAIN IN... NORTHWESTERN EL PASO COUNTY IN EAST CENTRAL COLORADO... * UNTIL 430 PM MDT Yeah, the past several weeks really there has been lots of rain near the Springs and south by 20 miles/north by 10 miles. Hanging there. We have friends in Widefield whose lawn is a foot high. Today has a blob north of Denver and west/north which has not been typical. Centennial Airport got a quick 0.3" just south of us in a thunderstorm, and we got a rock. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted August 30, 2016 Author Share Posted August 30, 2016 0.05" to 1" in Fort Collins. Max of 1.0" was about 2 mi south of Harmony Rd. 0.45" to 4.17" in Colorado Springs. COS airport got 0.45". The COS airport summer total will be 6.23" for the summer months unless they get more tomorrow or Wednesday. That's like 3x to 4x as much as my house for the summer total. If you consider then that some spot in Colorado Springs got 10" of rain for the summer, that's almost 6x as much as my house. I noticed that earlier in the summer, the COS area, even downtown, had several hail reports of 1"+. That had to have dented a few thousand cars over the months of June and July. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ValpoVike Posted August 30, 2016 Share Posted August 30, 2016 Up here, I am 1.63" month to date. With this pattern, I suspect we'll pick up another couple of tenth's between today and tomorrow, for an exit of around 1.75"-1.90" for August. There is still a fire ban in force, but just enough daily moisture to keep my paranoia level in check. I miss my smoker/bbq which is banned under the fire ban. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted August 30, 2016 Author Share Posted August 30, 2016 CoCoRAHS max rainfall in Fort Collins was 0.31". Also Colorado Springs max on CoCoRAHS was 2.33". I saw some pictures of hail drifts on the streets of Colorado Springs yesterday. Denver had 0.04" to 0.46" yesterday. My backyard has had 1.94" this SUMMER. This is bordering on the driest summer I have ever lived in Fort Collins. I will check the last 10 years of official Fort Collins records to see if it is the driest summer I have lived in Fort Collins. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mayjawintastawm Posted August 30, 2016 Share Posted August 30, 2016 Between 1.4" and 1.5" at my house this astronomical summer. 2012 was drier, and much hotter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
raindancewx Posted August 30, 2016 Share Posted August 30, 2016 I'm looking forward to September. La Nina w/ a +PDO is wet in ABQ and in much of the SW historically in Sept. La Nina w/ a +AMO is wet in Sept. Actually, if the +PDO does hold on, SON is favored to be wet overall, with DJF favored dry (but not as dry as in a La Nina w/o the +PDO), and then MAM average. Our coldest third of Augusts here are usually (60% of the time) followed by snowier than average cold seasons (Oct-May). The years with a hot June-July, cold Aug all tended to have average to below average snow from Oct-Dec, with a lot of snow in Jan-Feb, and then average snow in March, and either a lot or none in April. Would like to see September and how the monsoon finishes, but I kind of lean towards something like this for ABQ this winter: Oct - cool/wet, no snow Nov - warm/dry - 1" snow late Dec - warm/dry - 0.5" snow Jan - warm/wet - 4" snow Feb - cold/wet - 6" snow Mar - cold/moist - 1" snow Apr - warm/wet - no snow May - cool/wet - no snow Will feel better about March if we somehow end up at >=2.7" precip in Aug+Oct. We're at 0.86" now, but don't think it will rain today, maybe we get some more tomorrow - even so, it's hard to get the amount of rain we'd need in October to top 2.7". Shame, because 27/29 years (93%) with >=2.7" rain in Aug and Oct see snow in March, all others, it's more like 58%. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted August 31, 2016 Author Share Posted August 31, 2016 flash flood warning for Denver I-25/I-76/US 36 interchanges, Boulder foothills flash flood update: radar estimated 3 to 3.5" at I-25/I-76 and a few miles west of Boulder. Might have been -just- 2 to 2.5" in reality. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mayjawintastawm Posted September 1, 2016 Share Posted September 1, 2016 Got a good inch at least, maybe an inch and a quarter- finally- hardest rain in 2+ months! The yard is more patient than me, it looks greener already and the big cracks in the dirt are smaller. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mercurial Posted September 2, 2016 Share Posted September 2, 2016 Summer's over up here. Snow levels down to 6000 ft tomorrow and no temps above 70 in sight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted September 2, 2016 Author Share Posted September 2, 2016 The dew point got above 60 briefly while it was raining this morning. It's like a tropical rain forest. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ValpoVike Posted September 2, 2016 Share Posted September 2, 2016 3 hours ago, Chinook said: The dew point got above 60 briefly while it was raining this morning. It's like a tropical rain forest. Right? We pegged at 54 here earlier this morning. That's downright soupy up here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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