Summer Outlook 2016

[Damage In Tolland]

Almost everyone you talk to and every model and every outlook is going for an all out furnace over most of the continental US including New England. As we are approaching Mayorch which sort of is the unofficial start to warm season...here's the NWS outlook. Hopefully it's not a dry ,droughty summer like last year was...but one can see how that could happen

 

NWS Boston ‏@NWSBoston 

 

Let's forget about spring since its so chilly, how about summer! @NWSCPC says it could be a warm one!

[weatherwiz]

I've heard alot about a hot summer but from what I've looked into I'm thinking cooler than average summer 

[Damage In Tolland]

I've heard alot about a hot summer but from what I've looked into I'm thinking cooler than average summer

Only person on planet thinking that. Maybe you'll be right

[mreaves]

Almost everyone you talk to and every model and every outlook is going for an all out furnace over most of the continental US including New England. As we are approaching Mayorch which sort of is the unofficial start to warm season...here's the NWS outlook. Hopefully it's not a dry ,droughty summer like last year was...but one can see how that could happen

NWS Boston ‏@NWSBoston

Let's forget about spring since its so chilly, how about summer! @NWSCPC says it could be a warm one!

I know. I'm upset that I haven't installed yet.

[dendrite]

50% chance of above normal. Sweet.

[weatherwiz]

Only person on planet thinking that. Maybe you'll be right

 

All the summers I looked at (with the exception of a couple) yielded average to below average summers.  

 

From what I see is this...

 

If we see below-average heights remain a fixture through the summer in the GoA region that would favor a higher likelihood for ridging across the upper Mid-west and east US.  If we see below-average heights but they become positioned NW of Alaska, that will enhance the likelihood for a trough in the east.  

 

If below-average heights aren't a fixture than we'll have other factors of course but I think even then the signals would be more towards cooler.  

[powderfreak]

How can one see this being a dry and droughty summer? That's just sort of thrown in there for effect with no reasoning?

[tamarack]

How can one see this being a dry and droughty summer? That's just sort of thrown in there for effect with no reasoning?

 

Well, since he was a bit dry last summer, maybe dry begets dry?  (Of course, NNE wasn't dry then, but that doesn't count.)

[HoarfrostHubb]

Pretty flamelike colors = TOOOORRRCCCHHH!!!

[Typhoon Tip]

one thing i'd caution to my self when i see graphic(s) like that is that CPC biases everything warm in terms of outlook, and have, ...spanning almost 20 years now.  

 

i don't profess to know how exactly they derive their outlooks, be it entirely machine, or some weighted system of (machine(factor)+interpretation)/2 = ...some version that will inevitably only atone for about 50% of what really happens... (heh), but i do know that regardless of winter, spring, summer and fall, they've disseminated warmer than normal temperature prognostics over the CONUS well more than 50% of the time for decades. 

 

having said that, that particular product depiction looks suspiciously like the base-line climate signal, which is on a positive slope ... , combined with the current wetter than normal soil moisture in Texas projected into the deeper summer months offering cloud/cooling off-set to said base-line climate signal.  

 

the problem with all that is that we've had colder than normal times that were severe over many years, that get entirely missed by edging an essentially N/S on the flop side of warm.  It's not forecasting much to do that - if everywhere on the planet is warmer than normal ...unrelenting as has been the case, that chart isn't making any revelations.  

 

be that as it may, maybe they really do have some set of parameters that signal a warmer summer other than the climate canvas. guess i'll have to mosey on over to their site and read their forecast philosophies. 

[max_vorticity]

So Equal Chances pretty much across the board. So... the three month forecast is a bit of a wildcard? So is that really a forecast?

[weathafella]

Wtf is concensus?

[Typhoon Tip]

Wtf is concensus?

 

 

there is none ...

 

it's like trying to employ an utterly nebular spaghetti plot of personally biased ideas conjured by a confederacy of dunces strutting and fretting their moments upon the stage of the internet, only to be heard no more.  

 

does that help clear things up ?  

[weathafella]

there is none ...

 

it's like trying to employ an utterly nebular spaghetti plot of personally biased ideas conjured by a confederacy of dunces strutting and fretting their moments upon the stage of the internet, only to be heard no more.  

 

does that help clear things up ?

Actually..no..lol

[Ginx snewx]

Ed Vallee

Big theme in newest long range data: much wetter and not as warm this summer (they usually go hand in hand).

[Damage In Tolland]

Furnace

Latest NMME Summer June-August forecast has been released. Coast to coast warmth, however SPP/ERCOT seasonable.

[weatherwiz]

Hoping to type mine up sometime end of week or next week but I'm going cooler than average and above-average precip

[CoastalWx]

Eh....seasonal models will always be bullish on warmth summer or winter.

[powderfreak]

Eh....seasonal models will always be bullish on warmth summer or winter.

Is that a product of background GW or something? I've noticed that too... every time you look at a seasonal model it seems to be "torchy" on the whole. Pockets of below normal but you rarely see a seasonal model show coast to coast cold like they do warmth.

[Ginx snewx]

Hoping to type mine up sometime end of week or next week but I'm going cooler than average and above-average precip

trend is that way. Wet soils cooler temps,the opposite of what the Rev preaches with dry soils.

[weatherwiz]

trend is that way. Wet soils cooler temps,the opposite of what the Rev preaches with dry soils.

Also think we see more troughs in the east which should allow for this to happen. I'm sort of hoping we see a 1992-like pattern

[CoastalWx]

Is that a product of background GW or something? I've noticed that too... every time you look at a seasonal model it seems to be "torchy" on the whole. Pockets of below normal but you rarely see a seasonal model show coast to coast cold like they do warmth.

 

It's why Will and I have always said to look at H5 and then you can figure out the temp profile yourself. They just seem too warm overall at the surface.  It's definitely a bias.

[Damage In Tolland]

Hoping to type mine up sometime end of week or next week but I'm going cooler than average and above-average precip

You are likely going to be very wrong. Everything is pointing away from that. The setup this summer screams for national heat

[Ginx snewx]

You are likely going to be very wrong. Everything is pointing away from that. The setup this summer screams for national heat

I dont know where you see national heat. Euro Sips and CFS have trended cooler. The NE looks wetter and cooler each run.

[Damage In Tolland]

And if there's one place consistently being signaled for hot summer it's the north central into Northeast. Everything has that in some way shape or form

[weatherwiz]

You are likely going to be very wrong. Everything is pointing away from that. The setup this summer screams for national heat

I was told I was wrong too about going slightly above-average temp wise for the winter.

I haven't looked at anything that screams heat for he summer

[Damage In Tolland]

I was told I was wrong too about going slightly above-average temp wise for the winter.

I haven't looked at anything that screams heat for he summer

Who told you that? Everyone was going for record warm winter , which it was

[Typhoon Tip]

before anyone casts any judgement they should know exactly all physics that go into the construction of those seasonal tools. 

 

i don't.

 

however, i do know that seasonal models take into account a broader pallet of environmental variables, including longer termed climate modes/modalities.  in this case, the 30 years mean is sloped positively and remains so and has for decades.  such that, ...it "might" just be simple logic that in the absence of any compensating off-sets, whatever remains becomes the dominant signal. 

 

in other words, it's just as likely that a pretty orange and red map is merely what N/S kinda sorta defaults to - which would under those terms be above normal.  

[BRSno]

Definitely hoping for a cool summer. Already looking forward to September

[Isotherm]

http://www.lightinthestorm.com/

 

My summer outlook for this year. Think we largely return to a 2010-2012 type summer overall in the US. July or August (favoring July) for the warmest departures relative to normal, though I think all three months are above normal. Enhanced 90F days vs the past three summers. Precip sub normal, but convection could occasionally be interesting if we position the mid-level ridge in the Mid-west at times. We'll see on that.