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May 2016 Discussion/Observations


dmillz25

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The big story longer range is how the -EPO is forecast to make a significant plunge

yet again. So the models are now backing off on the amount of warming it was

showing for next week. There won't be any 80 degree warmth in NYC as long

as this powerful blocking pattern continues to dominate. Upper 60's or low 70's look

like the best that NYC can do on the warmer days as long as this blocking pattern

persists. 70 degrees is the average high in NYC for this time of year.

gefs_epo_06.png

luckily the epo correlation starts dropping this time of year for us
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1966 had a cool Spring that turned into a hot dry Summer...2016 is somewhat similar to 1966...The first half of May 1966 was very cool...The second half was warmer...The first 80 degree day in 1966 was May 20th...We already saw 80 degrees in April...If the flow goes the same May 20th could be the first warm day for this month...

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Going to be bad costal flooding thought. Winds are super strong onshore. I'm in long beach right now. I would

Move any cars near the water

 

We'll probably get to the red moderate coastal flooding level on the higher astro

tide this evening.The people in Long Beach have been complaining about the lack

of doors on the storm drains leading to Reynolds Channel. There is nothing in place 

to stop the surge from coming up and flooding the streets. It defeats the purpose

of the bulkheads since the water comes up through the drains into the streets.

 

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0.54".

Time to quote Forky again.

Another rain event underperformed.

 

It was enough to get NYC above 4 inches on the spring so far. But it may be our last chance to see another

.50+ event for a while. NYC needs to step up the rainfall game before the month is over to avoid the first

top 10 driest season since DJF 2001-2002.

 

10 driest springs in NYC

 

4.14....2016...so far

4.95....1885

5.06....1935

6.20....1887

6.39....1995

6.60....1905

6.81....1926

6.97....1965

7.01....1959

7.04....1963

7.05....1950

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