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May 2016 Discussion/Observations


dmillz25

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You can see the cooler pattern lingering as the blocking is slower to weaken from

the near record -EPO drop in late March and the strong -AO in April. Posters

were unhappy in recent years about the lack of a -AO. This year is showing 

that it's back with two months so far below -1. In fact, April had the strongest

-AO readings for the month at -1.051 since 1996.

 

Strongest April -AO readings on record

 

1966...-1.837

1996...-1.525

1979...-1.157

1973...-1.126

2016...-1.051

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/daily_ao_index/monthly.ao.index.b50.current.ascii.table

 

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Yeah im seeing 2 decent days then back to cool garbage rain off and on

The 6z gfs had some nice temps after Monday if you are grasping for straws like I am. If we do string together a few dry days in the 70s-80s next week the tree growth is going to explode and it will be bad for allergies. I'd still take that over endless 49 degree drizzle. 

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Gonna be one of the coolest first weeks of May for my station...we'll see where we end up come Saturday.

 

Today is the 10th day in a row with below normal temperatures in NYC. So the streak of no 10 days in a row

below normal since February 2015 is finally over. 

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Nice little storm tomorrow backing in NW off the Atlantic. Sometimes these storms

getting pulled in from the east can surprise to the upside. The 4km and the Euro

have some heavy showers possible thunder across LI and gusty winds. The strong onshore 

flow combined with the spring tides should get us close to moderate coastal

flooding especially with the evening high tide.

 

http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/NAMSFC4_12z/rloop.html

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Nice little storm tomorrow backing in NW off the Atlantic. Sometimes these storms

getting pulled in from the east can surprise to the upside. The 4km and the Euro

have some heavy showers possible thunder across LI and gusty winds. The strong onshore 

flow combined with the spring tides should get us close to moderate coastal

flooding especially with the evening high tide.

 

http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/NAMSFC4_12z/rloop.html

the 18z runs are in better agreement and give most of the nyc area .75"+

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I think the last week or so of May could become very warm to potentially hot. There will be a cool shot later next week / mid May induced largely by declining AAM/-MT and its concomitant –EPO pulse. However, the –EPO block will gradually retrograde, yielding a more Nina-like mid level configuration by late May; Aleutian ridging w/ downstream Western US troughing should promote a burgeoning ridge in the East as the vortex lifts nwd in Canada. We’ll be much colder than normal (departure wise) heading into May 20th, but it’s possible the last week of May makes a significant dent into the negatives, possibly even erasing it entirely depending upon the speed with which this pattern evolves.

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I think the last week or so of May could become very warm to potentially hot. There will be a cool shot later next week / mid May induced largely by declining AAM/-MT and its concomitant –EPO pulse. However, the –EPO block will gradually retrograde, yielding a more Nina-like mid level configuration by late May; Aleutian ridging w/ downstream Western US troughing should promote a burgeoning ridge in the East as the vortex lifts nwd in Canada. We’ll be much colder than normal (departure wise) heading into May 20th, but it’s possible the last week of May makes a significant dent into the negatives, possibly even erasing it entirely depending upon the speed with which this pattern evolves.

this happened in 95 and 05

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You can see the cooler pattern lingering as the blocking is slower to weaken from

the near record -EPO drop in late March and the strong -AO in April. Posters

were unhappy in recent years about the lack of a -AO. This year is showing 

that it's back with two months so far below -1. In fact, April had the strongest

-AO readings for the month at -1.051 since 1996.

 

Strongest April -AO readings on record

 

1966...-1.837

1996...-1.525

1979...-1.157

1973...-1.126

2016...-1.051

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/daily_ao_index/monthly.ao.index.b50.current.ascii.table

 

attachicon.gif500.gif

1966 strikes again...1973 is in there also...Both had cool Mays and a warmer than average June thru August...1966 had a very dry Spring and Summer...1973 had a wet Spring...

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