Stormlover74 Posted May 28, 2016 Share Posted May 28, 2016 Nam and gfs look much drier for Monday now. Soaking averted Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted May 28, 2016 Share Posted May 28, 2016 Nam and gfs look much drier for Monday now. Soaking averted 00z euro still close to 2.00 qpf Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted May 28, 2016 Share Posted May 28, 2016 Euro shifted the heaviest rains from the Delmarva up across Long Island like the NAM. GFS came in similar to the old 12z Euro run with best rains over eastern PA. Someone within 150 miles of NYC is going to get the heaviest rain event of the spring so far. Maybe the first time in a while that the heaviest spring precip event happens on Memorial Day. We just need a few more runs to pin down where the heaviest sets up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted May 28, 2016 Share Posted May 28, 2016 Euro shifted the heaviest rains from the Delmarva up across Long Island like the NAM. GFS came in similar to the old 12z Euro run with best rains over eastern PA. Someone within 150 miles of NYC is going to get the heaviest rain event of the spring so far. Maybe the first time in a while that the heaviest spring precip event happens on Memorial Day. We just need a few more runs to pin down where the heaviest sets up. Regardless, everyone is going to get some rain out of this, its just a matter of what areas see the heaviest. Both the Mt.Holly and Upton NWS offices mention a PRE in their morning discussions and highlight the concern for heavy rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted May 28, 2016 Share Posted May 28, 2016 Pretty muggy out there this morning, current temp 70/DP 61/RH 71% Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted May 28, 2016 Share Posted May 28, 2016 That 2.00" tropical PWAT plume would be a new record for Memorial Day. So the areas that get the best training will probably see 2+. It figures that it would take a tropical interaction to finally deliver some much needed heavy rains around the region. On another note, this system continues the trend of recent seasons focusing development north of 20N in the tropics. The last major hurricane to impact as far south as 20N was Sandy. Its going to be interesting to see how this tropical season is going to play out around here, going to be interesting since we are moving from El Nino into a La Nina. Something tells me that we won't be able to completely dodge the bullet this year and if we get the heavy rains from what will most likely become TS Bonnie we are off to a fast start even if its not a direct impact. Also, while I am buying into the idea of a hotter summer this year I am not so sold on it being drier which there seems to be more of a consensus for. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted May 28, 2016 Share Posted May 28, 2016 Euro shifted the heaviest rains from the Delmarva up across Long Island like the NAM. GFS came in similar to the old 12z Euro run with best rains over eastern PA. Someone within 150 miles of NYC is going to get the heaviest rain event of the spring so far. Maybe the first time in a while that the heaviest spring precip event happens on Memorial Day. We just need a few more runs to pin down where the heaviest sets up. another 30-50 mile shift east and most miss the big rains.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted May 28, 2016 Share Posted May 28, 2016 another 30-50 mile shift east and most miss the big rains.... That's true. The PRE would set up across Eastern LI and New England instead. That would be bad news for the dry conditions around here.The 0z Euro made a big shift SE. We'll have to wait and see if this is the storm to finally buck the seasonal trend of south and east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted May 28, 2016 Share Posted May 28, 2016 The synoptic-scale set-up looks conducive for areas of heavy rainfall, indeed; however, I'm not entirely convinced that the axis of heaviest rains will occur over our area. Typically, predecessor rainfall events (this might be a miniature one) generally develop along SSW-NNE axis near the longitude of the tropical cyclone. Initially, the most significant rains may be to our west, with a gradual progression eastward as the forthcoming tropical cyclone begins to drift northeastward. The rain over our area might not be as impressive, though. Here's a good schematic based upon the work of Bosart and Carr (1978) which coincidentally appears similar to the projected track of this cyclone - initially: We'll have to monitor where the theta-e ridge axis aligns as that will determine the spatial distribution of rainfall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted May 28, 2016 Share Posted May 28, 2016 Does anyone think it's possible that the EURO last night had a feedback issue? It was producing a random diamond-shaped blob of heavy precip that just sat in the same spot in S NJ from 69-75. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted May 28, 2016 Share Posted May 28, 2016 here's the 6z NAM showing the S and E jackpot Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IrishRob17 Posted May 28, 2016 Share Posted May 28, 2016 here's the 6z NAM showing the S and E jackpot If it played out like that it would be oh so shocking... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted May 28, 2016 Share Posted May 28, 2016 Temp up to 77/DP 65/RH 66% Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted May 28, 2016 Share Posted May 28, 2016 If it played out like that it would be oh so shocking... even further east at 12z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted May 28, 2016 Share Posted May 28, 2016 Temp up to 86/DP 69/RH 58% Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted May 28, 2016 Share Posted May 28, 2016 even further east at 12z SSMH Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted May 28, 2016 Share Posted May 28, 2016 GFS nothing like the nam has Monday as a washout Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwx21 Posted May 28, 2016 Share Posted May 28, 2016 GFS nothing like the nam has Monday as a washout It moves the rain out early enough though that late day cookouts could be ok. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted May 28, 2016 Share Posted May 28, 2016 Noon roundup TEB: 88 NYC: 88 EWR: 88 LGA: 88 JFK: 78 ISP: 77 New Brunswick: 87 BLM: 87 TTN: 85 PHL: 83 ACY: 85 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted May 28, 2016 Share Posted May 28, 2016 Current temp 91/DP 70/RH 50% Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dWave Posted May 28, 2016 Share Posted May 28, 2016 92 now dewpt 68 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmillz25 Posted May 28, 2016 Author Share Posted May 28, 2016 4th straight day of 90 here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmillz25 Posted May 28, 2016 Author Share Posted May 28, 2016 The park should already have hit or will hit 90 soon Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pazzo83 Posted May 28, 2016 Share Posted May 28, 2016 Pretty extended period of 70+ here in the city, impressive for May. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted May 28, 2016 Share Posted May 28, 2016 First 90F of the season just reached here (88, 89, 90 progression). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmillz25 Posted May 28, 2016 Author Share Posted May 28, 2016 Pretty extended period of 70+ here in the city, impressive for May.Yup went from cold damp to summer in a instant Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pazzo83 Posted May 28, 2016 Share Posted May 28, 2016 Yup went from cold damp to summer in a instant Right?? Was just like, ready...... GO! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted May 28, 2016 Share Posted May 28, 2016 Yup went from cold damp to summer in a instantWon't last with the blocking pattern to start June. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathermedic Posted May 28, 2016 Share Posted May 28, 2016 Seabreeze keeping temps along the south shore in 70's. 79 at my place in Sheepshead Bay. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dWave Posted May 28, 2016 Share Posted May 28, 2016 Look like a weak sea breeze developing, leveling off temps in qns bk etc. Hasnt made it uptown for now still climbing thru the 90s. It's full-on Midsummer heat wave disgusting outside. I refuse to complain though at least not yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.