Rtd208 Posted May 16, 2016 Share Posted May 16, 2016 Currently 66 here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Morris Posted May 17, 2016 Share Posted May 17, 2016 Going off the GFS MOS, only one day of the next week is AN, Friday. Barely so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted May 17, 2016 Share Posted May 17, 2016 Euro and GFS both have a weekend cutoff low. The Euro is more optimistic and keeps the heavy rain to our south with a sharp rainfall gradient across the area. The GFS has a wetter scenario for the area as the storm comes further north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted May 17, 2016 Share Posted May 17, 2016 Euro and GFS both have a weekend cutoff low. The Euro is more optimistic and keeps the heavy rain to our south with a sharp rainfall gradient across the area. The GFS has a wetter scenario for the area as the storm comes further north. CMC has also shifted south Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted May 17, 2016 Share Posted May 17, 2016 CMC has also shifted south Those further south solutions are closer to the spring trend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted May 17, 2016 Share Posted May 17, 2016 Makes sense given the recent strong blocking Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted May 17, 2016 Share Posted May 17, 2016 12z GFS shifts slightly south for the weekend event-looks more like the euro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted May 17, 2016 Share Posted May 17, 2016 Euro further south and east with cut off for the weekend Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sophisticated Skeptic Posted May 17, 2016 Share Posted May 17, 2016 wow... how often do u see a hook like this. they almost never come back, when this far offshore initially. bowling ball already established at 138 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted May 17, 2016 Share Posted May 17, 2016 so far NYC is averaging 56.2 degrees for May...the next 14 days have to be significantly below average to see May end up averaging in the 50's...Since 1950 there have been 11 years with May averaging below 60.0... year.....temp... 1917.....54.3* coldest... 1967.....55.2 second coldest... 2003.....58.7 1956.....58.7 1950.....58.8 1958.....59.1 1997.....59.4 1973.....59.5 1968.....59.6 2005.....59.8 1954.....59.8 1961.....59.9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mriceyman Posted May 18, 2016 Share Posted May 18, 2016 so far NYC is averaging 56.2 degrees for May...the next 14 days have to be significantly below average to see May end up averaging in the 50's...Since 1950 there have been 11 years with May averaging below 60.0... year.....temp... 1917.....54.3* coldest... 1967.....55.2 second coldest... 2003.....58.7 1956.....58.7 1950.....58.8 1958.....59.1 1997.....59.4 1973.....59.5 1968.....59.6 2005.....59.8 1954.....59.8 1961.....59.9 Only 3 years in the last 43. Very rare and i would have think we wouldn't end up below 60. Hopefully. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted May 18, 2016 Share Posted May 18, 2016 Euro was further northwest with the cutoff this weekend. 1.00+ of rain for the area Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Morris Posted May 18, 2016 Share Posted May 18, 2016 We're headed for yet another BN day today and likely tomorrow as well. This is good. Friday is only N on the latest GFS MOS. I'm hoping the pattern doesn't flip until the fall. I couldn't care less if fall isn't so cool. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted May 18, 2016 Share Posted May 18, 2016 Euro was further northwest with the cutoff this weekend. 1.00+ of rain for the area Interesting. GFS still moving south. CMC has a lot of rain from NYC south Sat night into Sunday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted May 18, 2016 Share Posted May 18, 2016 Through May 17, the monthly temperature anomaly for NYC has been -4.1°. It appears very likely that May 2016 will be the first month since June 2015 (-0.2° anomaly) to have a cool anomaly in New York City. It is also possible that May 2016 could be the first month since March 2015 (-4.4° anomaly) to have an anomaly of 1° or more below normal. The May 18-31 period would need to average 4.9° above normal for the month to finish at normal relative to climatology and 5.2° above normal for May to finish with a +0.1° anomaly. Some scenarios: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted May 18, 2016 Share Posted May 18, 2016 Euro was further northwest with the cutoff this weekend. 1.00+ of rain for the areathe gfs is on board now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted May 18, 2016 Share Posted May 18, 2016 Interesting. GFS still moving south. CMC has a lot of rain from NYC south Sat night into Sunday You might want to take a look at the 12z GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Neblizzard Posted May 18, 2016 Share Posted May 18, 2016 the gfs is on board now Yeh looks like a good soaking rain with some wind. My concern now is can we salvage MDW? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Morris Posted May 18, 2016 Share Posted May 18, 2016 the gfs is on board now Sweet. Rain and mid 50's. The winning combination for this time of year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted May 18, 2016 Share Posted May 18, 2016 Sweet. Rain and mid 50's. The winning combination for this time of year. we go above normal after that Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted May 18, 2016 Share Posted May 18, 2016 the gfs is on board now Yep! Big time soaker on the GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwarlock Posted May 18, 2016 Share Posted May 18, 2016 Mets bust..sunny and beautiful out..will probably hit low 70s Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JerseyWx Posted May 18, 2016 Share Posted May 18, 2016 Mets bust..sunny and beautiful out..will probably hit low 70s I agree. Mostly blue skies up here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted May 18, 2016 Share Posted May 18, 2016 Full moon being Sunday is a big factor. More then the rain itself, IMO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted May 18, 2016 Share Posted May 18, 2016 we go above normal after that let me guess, just 10 short days away...been hearing about the "heat" for weeks and the only heat I am seeing is coming from my gas furnace which continues to run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted May 18, 2016 Share Posted May 18, 2016 Dr.No strikes again with the 12z Euro run. Close to zip for NYC and points north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jefflaw77 Posted May 18, 2016 Share Posted May 18, 2016 Does the Euro really show very little or nothing? This is like winter... Nobody needs this uncertainty/pain in MAY! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted May 18, 2016 Share Posted May 18, 2016 These models are a joke! Think if it were winter, everyone would have been dancing in the streets this am and then the euro comes in with zip Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted May 18, 2016 Share Posted May 18, 2016 Raining and 59.9F Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted May 18, 2016 Share Posted May 18, 2016 Think if it were winter, everyone would have been dancing in the streets this am and then the euro comes in with zip Just imagine the last 24 hours with that OH Valley wave that totally dampened out as it came east. The radar out there looked insane last night and it totally fizzled as it went into PA overnight Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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