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May 2016 Discussion/Observations


dmillz25

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Guest Pamela

Didn't we talk about this a few weeks ago? The book doesn't get put away til June...

 

I'm not sure...most of my dispatches to this site are soliloquies as I am persona non grata around here...

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May 16 Forecast/Records (18z GFS)

 

Albany: 33° (Record: 33°, 1980)

Bridgeport: 40° (Record: 41°, 1966 and 1983)

Hartford: 36° (Record: 35°, 1947)

Islip: 38° (Record: 39°, 2000)

New York City:

...JFK: 43° (Record: 43°, 1983)

...LGA: 44° (Record: 41°, 1983)

...NYC: 40° (Record: 42°, 1873 and 1878)

Newark: 39° (Record: 40°, 1937)

White Plains: 36° (Record: 40°, 1956)

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May 16 Forecast/Records (18z GFS)

Albany: 33° (Record: 33°, 1980)

Bridgeport: 40° (Record: 41°, 1966 and 1983)

Hartford: 36° (Record: 35°, 1947)

Islip: 38° (Record: 39°, 2000)

New York City:

...JFK: 43° (Record: 43°, 1983)

...LGA: 44° (Record: 41°, 1983)

...NYC: 40° (Record: 42°, 1873 and 1878)

Newark: 39° (Record: 40°, 1937)

White Plains: 36° (Record: 40°, 1956)

Don, do you have records for Sussex Airport and Morristown Municipal?

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Unfortunately, neither airport maintains records, it seems. However, the coop at Sussex 2 NW has records. The record low for that location on May 16 is 30°, 1920. The GFS MOS forecast a low of 31° for KFWN.

No problem, I had a feeling they didn't maintain records. Let's see if they can break a record at the location you found though. Should be close.

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this May brings back memories of May's of my youth...one of the coldest Springs was 1967...April and May had 17 days -10 or better from the 1931-1960 normal's...April 1-3 1967 had record or near high days...After that it was very cool until May 28th...the pattern changed in June to hot but by July it became cool again...

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Looks like only Sussex and Warren ended up with Frost Advisories. The typically colder spots of Morris, down into Somerset, Monmouth, and Ocean all got this Hazardous Weather Outlook. 40 here.

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ1222 AM EDT MON MAY 16 2016

NJZ008>010-012-013-020-022-027-PAZ101-103-105-170430-MORRIS-HUNTERDON-SOMERSET-MIDDLESEX-WESTERN MONMOUTH-OCEAN-ATLANTIC-SOUTHEASTERN BURLINGTON-WESTERN CHESTER-WESTERN MONTGOMERY-UPPER BUCKS-1222 AM EDT MON MAY 16 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL NEW JERSEY...NORTHERNNEW JERSEY...NORTHWEST NEW JERSEY...SOUTHERN NEW JERSEY AND SOUTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

ISOLATED BRIEF FROST MAY OCCUR JUST BEFORE SUNRISE MONDAY IN THETYPICALLY COLD SPOTS OF EASTERN PENNSYLVANIA, NORTH CENTRAL NEWJERSEY AND THE NEW JERSEY PINE BARRENS.

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Only the 6th year since 1950 with an -EPO drop to -250 or lower.

This impressive late season cold front was only a few days later.

It's also the first time that such a strong drop happened 2 years apart.

But we are in more of a negative phase now since 2013.

 

5/13/16.. -251.85

5/14/14...-263.59

5/13/93...-279.02

5/14/93...-266.72

5/1/89.....-348.24

5/2/89.....-313.93

5/11/68...-265.23

5/7/57.....-252.29

 

inverse chart.... red is negative and blue positive

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/data/teledoc/ep_ts.shtml

 

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Newark at least matched their record 40 low.

 

RECORD EVENT REPORT

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY

0734 AM EDT MON MAY 16 2016

...RECORD LOW TEMPERATURE SET AT NEWARK NJ...

A RECORD LOW TEMPERATURE OF 40 DEGREES WAS SET AT NEWARK NJ

THIS MORNING. THIS TIES THE OLD RECORD OF 40 SET IN 1937.

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