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May 2016 Discussion/Observations


dmillz25

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Is May a lock to finish below normal?

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No, but it's leaning in that direction. Assuming today's high temperature is 63°, the remainder of the month would need to average no higher than 2.6° above normal for the month to finish with a colder than normal temperature. If, however, the MOS forecasts through the 17th are reasonably accurate, that figure would increase to 4.3° above normal.

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The Euro only has .60 of rainfall for NYC over the next 10 days.

So barring a major wet pattern  after May 20th, NYC is on track

for the first top ten driest season since the 01-02 winter.

 

10 driest springs in NYC

 

4.30....2016...so far

4.95....1885

5.06....1935

6.20....1887

6.39....1995

6.60....1905

6.81....1926

6.97....1965

7.01....1959

7.04....1963

7.05....1950

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The Euro only has .60 of rainfall for NYC over the next 10 days.

So barring a major wet pattern after May 20th, NYC is on track

for the first top ten driest season since the 01-02 winter.

10 driest springs in NYC

4.30....2016...so far

4.95....1885

5.06....1935

6.20....1887

6.39....1995

6.60....1905

6.81....1926

6.97....1965

7.01....1959

7.04....1963

7.05....1950

I think we'll end up somewhere between #3-#5

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Another well below normal day here with high temp of 59 degrees....14 consecutive days with a below normal mean temp.

 

Yeah, below normal streak continues here as well. Managed to achieve 60F late afternoon. Mother's Day high temp of 71F followed a morning low of 37F, so the mean was still sub normal. My April temp departure was -0.5 and May thus far is about -8, so it's looking likely that both April and May are colder than normal here. For NYC, I could see the negatives being erased or mostly erased if the last week of May is very hot, which is still a decent possibility. Early next week may feature late season frost potential in rural areas.

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Be interesting to see if the warm up the models are advertising for May 20-31 can

produce the first 90 of the season for Newark. The only year since 2010 that 

Newark didn't reach 90 by the last week of May was 2014. In any event, the 

first 80's of the month look like a good bet at that time as the temperatures

rebound from the cool pattern.

 

 

2015....5/26...91

2014....6/18...92

2013....5/30...93

2012....5/28...91

2011....5/30...92

2010....4/7.....92

 

attachicon.gifgefs_t2ma_5d_noram_33.png

 

attachicon.gifgefs_t2ma_5d_noram_65.png

May 1966 was cold the first three weeks of the month...the pattern broke down around the 20th...2016 could end up the same way...

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GFS brings the city down to 37 next Monday. Low of 42 on Tuesday.

 

Then we go to a high of 86 next Thursday.

Do you believe changes that severe less than a week out?  Seems like an awesome first live run of the new GFS parallel/ GFS

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GFS brings the city down to 37 next Monday. Low of 42 on Tuesday.

 

Then we go to a high of 86 next Thursday.

i don't understand how people keep falling for the gfs cold bias. just last night it showed nyc getting into the 40's this morning and the low was 50

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GFS brings the city down to 37 next Monday. Low of 42 on Tuesday.

 

Then we go to a high of 86 next Thursday.

That was one of the coldest runs for the Sunday night/Monday night time period yet on the GFS. Doubt NYC is getting below 40 (doubt they even go under 45). Surrounding suburbs certainly could. For what its worth, GGEM has been running about 7-10 degrees warmer than the GFS for the same time period. 

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That was one of the coldest runs for the Sunday night/Monday night time period yet on the GFS. Doubt NYC is getting below 40 (doubt they even go under 45). Surrounding suburbs certainly could. For what its worth, GGEM has been running about 7-10 degrees warmer than the GFS for the same time period. 

 

And by the way, the GFS upgraded today at 12z to its newer version. It's not much better than the old version.

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Be interesting to see if the warm up the models are advertising for May 20-31 can

produce the first 90 of the season for Newark. The only year since 2010 that 

Newark didn't reach 90 by the last week of May was 2014. In any event, the 

first 80's of the month look like a good bet at that time as the temperatures

rebound from the cool pattern.

 

 

2015....5/26...91

2014....6/18...92

2013....5/30...93

2012....5/28...91

2011....5/30...92

2010....4/7.....92

the flip is coming

 

gfs-ens_z500aMean_nhem_10.png

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