LongBeachSurfFreak Posted May 18, 2016 Share Posted May 18, 2016 Raining in Manhattan. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted May 18, 2016 Share Posted May 18, 2016 18z GFS still a soaker with its update it will be a good test Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Morris Posted May 18, 2016 Share Posted May 18, 2016 On 5/18/2016 at 10:11 PM, Allsnow said: 18z GFS still a soaker with its update it will be a good test Did cut in half Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted May 18, 2016 Share Posted May 18, 2016 On 5/18/2016 at 10:20 PM, Morris said: Did cut in halfLess qpf but not a further southeast storm track Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted May 18, 2016 Share Posted May 18, 2016 On 5/18/2016 at 10:22 PM, Allsnow said: Less qpf but not a further southeast storm track It also develops the system a few hours later though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted May 18, 2016 Share Posted May 18, 2016 hail is possible under the cold pool next week Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmillz25 Posted May 18, 2016 Author Share Posted May 18, 2016 On 5/18/2016 at 10:43 PM, forkyfork said: hail is possible under the cold pool next weekThat would be nice to see Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwarlock Posted May 18, 2016 Share Posted May 18, 2016 Fwiw accucrap has nice sunny warm weather for Memorial Day Weekend Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted May 19, 2016 Share Posted May 19, 2016 The 00z GFS is south with the weekend storm, now watch the Euro come north again after going south at 12z. These models are like a seesaw. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted May 19, 2016 Share Posted May 19, 2016 On 5/19/2016 at 4:10 AM, Rtd208 said: The 00z GFS is south with the weekend storm, now watch the Euro come north again after going south at 12z. These models are like a seesaw. Euro has .5+ now for the weekend. Storm is weak but further northwest then 12z yesterday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim Posted May 19, 2016 Share Posted May 19, 2016 ...lee goldberg mentions that phrase again..you know it as...the "pattern change"..saying by memorial day weekend w/e will have warmer than normal temperatures..not buying it yet until bluewave confirms this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted May 19, 2016 Share Posted May 19, 2016 On 5/19/2016 at 4:10 AM, Rtd208 said: The 00z GFS is south with the weekend storm, now watch the Euro come north again after going south at 12z. These models are like a seesaw. Nam and CMC have some rain, but they hold it off until Sat night. 6z GFS is a complete whiff south Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted May 19, 2016 Share Posted May 19, 2016 On 5/19/2016 at 10:53 AM, bluewave said: The big story for the Euro and EPS is that there is enough blocking for the rest of May to prevent the WAR from building strongly. So the coming warm up will likely be too weak to allow a 90 degree reading at Newark. The only other year since 2010 that Newark couldn't reach 90 in May was 2014. Whether this is a preview of the coming summer in regard to the amount of major heat reamins to bee seen. Newark May high and number of summer 95 degree or warmer days. 8 days is the 30 year average 2015...91.....8 2014...88.....2 2013...94.....10 2012...92.....17 2011...92.....16 2010...95.....21 The depth of the cold and cloudy weather has surprised many. It's been a garbage fest since 4/2 really. We're so used to being above normal. The odd thing is, despite all the murk, we're on track for the driest spring Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted May 19, 2016 Share Posted May 19, 2016 On 5/19/2016 at 1:48 PM, Brian5671 said: The depth of the cold and cloudy weather has surprised many. It's been a garbage fest since 4/2 really. We're so used to being above normal. The odd thing is, despite all the murk, we're on track for the driest spring We typically haven't seen such a dramatic reversal to cooler in spring after a top ten warmest March. So this highly amplified 500 mb regime renders past analogs less useful since they were in a era with less blocking at both high and midlatitudes. It has also forced the storm track further south and east resulting in the dry pattern here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Morris Posted May 19, 2016 Share Posted May 19, 2016 Looks like we go AN today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Michael05192016 Posted May 19, 2016 Share Posted May 19, 2016 I hope so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted May 19, 2016 Share Posted May 19, 2016 12z Euro embraces the seasonal trend by keeping most of the rain south and east of NYC for the weekend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted May 19, 2016 Share Posted May 19, 2016 On 5/19/2016 at 6:15 PM, bluewave said: 12z Euro embraces the seasonal trend by keeping most of the rain south and east of NYC for the weekend. Only models showing a hit now are the regular NAM (4K NAM south) and CMC-that tells you all you need to know. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tdp146 Posted May 19, 2016 Share Posted May 19, 2016 On 5/19/2016 at 5:45 PM, Morris said: Looks like we go AN today.73 between hours. AN by a degree for a few minutes. Clouds and 69 now. But above is above. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted May 19, 2016 Share Posted May 19, 2016 On 5/19/2016 at 6:19 PM, Brian5671 said: Only models showing a hit now are the regular NAM (4K NAM south) and CMC-that tells you all you need to know. NYC is going to finish very close to the top of the driest springs list. The only question now is if it can get another .5 to avoid the number 1 spot. NYC currently has 4.55 and the record is 4.95 set in 1885. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted May 19, 2016 Share Posted May 19, 2016 After the week I recorded 3" of rain <.50" this last week the drizzle and intermittent light showers not getting it done. Ironic this weekends system has been trending towards a fail. Partly sunny day 68F currently is the high Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ForestHillWx Posted May 19, 2016 Share Posted May 19, 2016 Beauty of day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
doncat Posted May 19, 2016 Share Posted May 19, 2016 Hit 71 here briefly earlier then quickly dropped into mid 60's as winds turned onshore...Out of the past 23 days, only 2 have had temps above normal for the day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Morris Posted May 19, 2016 Share Posted May 19, 2016 On 5/19/2016 at 6:19 PM, tdp146 said: 73 between hours. AN by a degree for a few minutes. Clouds and 69 now. But above is above. 73/54 today is perfectly N. +1/-1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UnionWeatherWx Posted May 19, 2016 Share Posted May 19, 2016 74f , AN day for me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tdp146 Posted May 19, 2016 Share Posted May 19, 2016 On 5/19/2016 at 7:32 PM, Morris said: 73/44 today is perfectly N. +1/-1Ah. I was just going by the high. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tdp146 Posted May 19, 2016 Share Posted May 19, 2016 On 5/19/2016 at 7:32 PM, Morris said: 73/44 today is perfectly N. +1/-1And did you mean 73/54? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Morris Posted May 19, 2016 Share Posted May 19, 2016 On 5/19/2016 at 7:46 PM, tdp146 said: And did you mean 73/54? Of course. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
doncat Posted May 19, 2016 Share Posted May 19, 2016 On 5/19/2016 at 6:23 PM, bluewave said: NYC is going to finish very close to the top of the driest springs list. The only question now is if it can get another .5 to avoid the number 1 spot. NYC currently has 4.55 and the record is 4.95 set in 1885. On 5/19/2016 at 6:23 PM, bluewave said: NYC is going to finish very close to the top of the driest springs list. The only question now is if it can get another .5 to avoid the number 1 spot. NYC currently has 4.55 and the record is 4.95 set in 1885. Currently 5.70" here for spring...driest since 1981 is 6.47" set in 1995. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cfa Posted May 19, 2016 Share Posted May 19, 2016 66/48 for me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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