dmillz25 Posted April 26, 2016 Share Posted April 26, 2016 Since May is a few days away. Possibility of a slow moving low pressure which can give our area the first 2 inch event in a few months. Discuss away Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jason WX Posted April 26, 2016 Share Posted April 26, 2016 I'm hoping for more severe weather here in May Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted April 26, 2016 Share Posted April 26, 2016 I'm hoping for more severe weather here in May The better severe events happen after May around here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BxEngine Posted April 26, 2016 Share Posted April 26, 2016 They might need to lower the criteria for what constitutes a severe thunderstorm around here in the same fashion that the criteria for a blizzard was made easier to achieve (once upon a time, temperatures under 20 F were required; under 10 F for a "severe blizzard")...NOAA eliminated that requirement during the 1980's as it was hardly ever being met east of the Mississippi and south of the Great Lakes...despite some pretty prodigious snowstorms combined with wind. The same applies with severe thunderstorms. Along the immediate Atlantic Coast, if you have one day with hail a summer, it is considered close to an average hail season...and a severe t-storm not only requires hail; but also hail breaching a specified diameter. No. 58 mph gusts and/or 1" hail. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted April 27, 2016 Share Posted April 27, 2016 Unless the GFS is off its rocker it looks like next weeks rainfall may not come to fruition as it now keeps the precip. south of the area for the 3rd run in a row. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwarlock Posted April 27, 2016 Share Posted April 27, 2016 Unless the GFS is off its rocker it looks like next weeks rainfall may not come to fruition as it now keeps the precip. south of the area for the 3rd run in a row. Most rainfall evenst have underperformed or dissipated on the models as we moved closer the last two months so I would be cautious of jumping on any rain trains Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted April 27, 2016 Share Posted April 27, 2016 One thing is for certain, the first week of May this year will get off to a much cooler start than last May which ran +6.1 on the month. The strong blocking pattern to start this May will feature cooler temps than the +7.1 first week of May 2015. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted April 27, 2016 Share Posted April 27, 2016 some May stats for NYC...the 2010's are averaging well above average along with the monthly minimums... Average Temperature and precipitation...decade....temp...high...low.....max/min temp ave/max/min/90+days/ ave precipitation...1870's....60.3...63.3...58.8....................................................2.......2.50"1880's....61.3...67.9...56.6......96......35......87.2......40.9.........6.......3.07"1890's....60.8...67.0...57.8......96......32......85.7......41.6.........6.......3.67"1900's....60.7...63.4...56.2......90......37......86.6......41.5.........2.......3.41"1910's....61.5...65.3...54.3......95......36......86.8......41.7.........4.......3.39"1920's....60.2...64.6...57.3......93......37......84.2......41.5.........2.......3.59"1930's....63.0...64.9...59.9......96......40......90.5......43.5.......19.......3.23"1940's....62.5...67.0...59.2......96......35......88.8......42.7.........8.......4.52" trace of snow in 19461950's....61.9...66.4...58.7......94......38......87.2......41.7.........6.......3.29"1960's....62.2...66.4...55.2......99......36......88.3......41.6.......11.......3.02"1970's....62.7...65.8...59.5......94......36......89.0......41.1.......10.......5.00" trace of snow in 19771980's....63.6...66.0...60.2......97......41......88.0......43.7.......10.......4.39"1990's....62.7...68.7...59.4......96......40......89.4......44.0.......11.......4.16"2000's....62.2...65.2...58.7......93......41......86.2......43.4.........8.......3.66"2010's....65.0...68.5...62.8......92......41......89.0......45.8.........3.......4.62" 2010-151870-2009......61.8...65.9...58.0.........................87.5......42.2.........8.......3.64"1980-2009..... 62.8...66.6...59.4.........................87.9......43.7.......10.......4.07"warmest.........coolest...........wettest............driest......68.7 in 1991...54.3 in 1917...10.24" in 1989...0.30" in 190368.5 in 2015...55.2 in 1967.....9.74" in 1984...0.34" in 188767.9 in 1880...55.2 in 1907.....9.15" in 1978...0.57" in 196467.0 in 1944...56.6 in 1882.....9.10" in 1990...0.62" in 188067.0 in 1896...57.3 in 1924.....8.51" in 1908...0.72" in 190566.4 in 1965...57.4 in 1901.....8.39" in 1972...0.89" in 193966.4 in 1959...57.7 in 1869.....8.00" in 2013...0.95" in 187766.0 in 1986...57.8 in 1891.....7.61" in 1940...1.05" in 193565.8 in 1975...58.0 in 1888.....7.58" in 1948...1.09" in 189965.7 in 1993...58.2 in 1893.....7.06" in 1968...1.18" in 1944warmest temperatures...99 5/19/196297 5/29/196997 5/30/198796 5/20/199696 5/22/194196 5/27/188096 5/29/198796 5/31/189595 5/25/188095 5/26/188095 5/27/1914coldest temperatures...32 5/06/189134 5/05/189135 5/01/188035 5/09/194736 5/11/191336 5/10/196636 5/10/194736 5/09/197736 5/03/187436 5/01/1876coldest max days...43 5/3/187343 5/5/189144 5/7/196744 5/5/191744 5/9/197745 5/1/191745 5/2/196245 5/5/197845 5/6/189146 5/25/1967+warmest min. days...76 5/31/198775 5/31/189574 5/09/200074 5/20/199674 5/27/190874 5/29/196974 5/30/198773 5/25/188073 5/28/195973 5/30/1986+Warmest monthly minimum...49 in 201249 in 1982 49 in 201348 in 189948 in 191047 in 194247 in 194447 in 196947 in 199146 in 201146 in 200046 in 2014 + =plus other years...coldest monthly maximum...75 in 192479 in 200579 in 200379 in 198379 in 192879 in 192779 in 191580 in 196880 in 1882 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
doncat Posted April 27, 2016 Share Posted April 27, 2016 bluewave, on 27 Apr 2016 - 07:09 AM, said: One thing is for certain, the first week of May this year will get off to a much cooler start than last May which ran +6.1 on the month. The strong blocking pattern to start this May will feature cooler temps than the +7.1 first week of May 2015. ecmwf-ens_z500a_nhem_9.png Last May already had 5 days into the mid 80's by the 12th. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted April 27, 2016 Share Posted April 27, 2016 Last May already had 5 days into the mid 80's by the 12th. Yeah, NYC narrowly missed the warmest May on record. It will be interesting to see when Newark reaches 90 for the first time this year. First 90 of season for Newark since 2010: 5/25/15....90 6/17/14....91 5/30/13....93 5/28/12....91 5/30/11....92 4/7/10......92 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted April 27, 2016 Share Posted April 27, 2016 Unless the GFS is off its rocker it looks like next weeks rainfall may not come to fruition as it now keeps the precip. south of the area for the 3rd run in a row. makes sense given the strong blocking. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JerseyWx Posted April 27, 2016 Share Posted April 27, 2016 Last May already had 5 days into the mid 80's by the 12th. Yep, and by late May the heat really kicked in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted April 27, 2016 Share Posted April 27, 2016 Euro eps pretty wet next week with the cut off... GFS is bone dry Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jason WX Posted April 27, 2016 Share Posted April 27, 2016 The better severe events happen after May around here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted April 27, 2016 Share Posted April 27, 2016 12z GFS way north around a inch+ for the area Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwarlock Posted April 27, 2016 Share Posted April 27, 2016 12z GFS way north around a inch+ for the area For when? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted April 27, 2016 Share Posted April 27, 2016 For when? through 84 it looks like the NAM-a lot more as we get into next week Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted April 27, 2016 Share Posted April 27, 2016 For when? Sunday into Monday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwarlock Posted April 27, 2016 Share Posted April 27, 2016 How about Friday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wthrmn654 Posted April 28, 2016 Share Posted April 28, 2016 How's may 7th looking? hoping for a dry, semi warm morning for agility test up in Saratoga. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted April 30, 2016 Share Posted April 30, 2016 Not going to believe it but the euro has a boat load of rain for us all next week. Slow cut off low to end the week Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted April 30, 2016 Share Posted April 30, 2016 Be interesting to see if the post 120hr Euro is too strong with that low again as the other guidance isn't as deep. But we have a few days to see if the Euro comes in weaker or the other models get stronger. In any case, it looks like a cool first week of May with the strong omega blocking pattern and trough in the East. Yep looks like we are going to be in the murk this week. It's been a while since we had this type of pattern in spring. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted April 30, 2016 Share Posted April 30, 2016 Yep looks like we are going to be in the murk this week. It's been a while since we had this type of pattern in spring. The blocking really kicked in in late March and continues to roll right into early May. It has been the main thing standing in the way of more record heat like we saw in early March. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmillz25 Posted April 30, 2016 Author Share Posted April 30, 2016 Where the hell was this in February?!? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted April 30, 2016 Share Posted April 30, 2016 This whole year so far has been a battle between the strong blocking over the Arctic and the Western Atlantic Ridge. January and February featured the Arctic blocking dominating the pattern with our blizzard and follow up storms. The blocking weakened in March so the WAR was able to rebound and produce one of the warmest Marches on record. The blocking returned in April so the temperatures were closer to normal. We will need to see the WAR flex its muscles again to get back into a warmer pattern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted April 30, 2016 Share Posted April 30, 2016 This whole year so far has been a battle between the strong blocking over the Arctic and the Western Atlantic Ridge. January and February featured the Arctic blocking dominating the pattern with our blizzard and follow up storms. The blocking weakened in March so the WAR was able to rebound and produce one of the warmest Marches on record. The blocking returned in April so the temperatures were closer to normal. We will need to see the WAR flex its muscles again to get back into a warmer pattern. JF.gif MAR.gif APR.gif shortening wavelengths will help as well Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted April 30, 2016 Share Posted April 30, 2016 Euro still has the cutoff on Thursday and basically rain all week outside of wed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted April 30, 2016 Share Posted April 30, 2016 Let's see if we can at least squeeze out .25" tomorrow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim Posted May 1, 2016 Share Posted May 1, 2016 ...another day stuck in the 40's and 50's her on ELI..its been a real slow start to spring out here..need some heat..want some heat.. any clues when this blocking will cease and get some warm temps ?..bluewave ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted May 1, 2016 Share Posted May 1, 2016 No surprise that the 0Z is now weaker and more strung out with the low pressure this week and cut back on the rainfall from earlier runs. old run OLD.png new run NEW.png The Euro has become horrible since the upgrade, clearly not the same model it once was. Hopefully it brings back the stronger solution so we can get some good soaking rains in here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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