May 2016 temperature forecast contest (and seasonal max)

[Roger Smith]

Greetings from global contest headquarters ... the May forecast contest is open for entries, and as we've done for several years now, there is a bonus contest added, for the seasonal (2016 call it summer if you want) maximum temperature at the same nine locations.

 

The temperature forecast component is, as always, the departure in F deg from 1981-2010 normal values for these nine sites:

 

DCA _ NYC _ BOS ___ ORD _ ATL _ IAH ____ DEN _ PHX _ SEA

 

and the seasonal max contest asks you to predict the highest reading of 2016 at these locations.

 

Time penalties apply to the monthly temperature contest at the rate of 1% every 2 hours delayed beyond 06z of May 1st, to 18z May 2nd, after which it jumps to 1% per hour.

 

You can edit your seasonal max predictions up to the end of May 10th if you wish, or you can enter that bonus contest late, I won't be compiling a table of entries for the seasonal max until May 11th at the earliest, so no need to alert me to changes you might make. The monthly forecasts are tabulated quite early in the month and cross-checked for accuracy when I enter them into my excel scoring file.

 

Good luck! 

[Maxim]

DCA: +2.0  100
NYC: +2.5   99
BOS: +1.5   98
ORD: +3.5  102
ATL: -0.5    100     
IAH: -1.5    100
DEN: +1.5  101
PHX: +0.5   117
SEA: +4.0   95

[dmillz25]

DCA: +2.7 103

NYC: +2.5 101

BOS: +1.6 100

ORD: +2.5 102

ATL: +2.0 103

IAH: +2.3 103

DEN:+1.0 100

PHX:+1.5 119

SEA: +1.0 97

[Rjay]

DCA: +2.0 102

NYC: +2.0 100

BOS: +2.0 98

ORD: +2.0 101

ATL: +1.0 102

IAH: +1.0 102

DEN: +1.5 99

PHX: +1.0 117

SEA: +2.0 95

[Tom]

DCA:  +1.2  100

NYC: +1.1  100

BOS: +1.1  97

ORD: +0.9  103

ATL: +1.4   102

IAH: +0.9    104

DEN: +0.7   97

PHX:  +0.5   118

SEA:  +0.2   95

[hudsonvalley21]

DCA: +1.1 100
NYC: +1.2 98
BOS: +1.0 97
ORD: +1.7 100
ATL: +1.2 100
IAH: +0.4 103
DEN: -1.5 97
PHX: +0.4 116
SEA: +2.1 98 

[ksammut]

DCA _ NYC _ BOS ___ ORD _ ATL _ IAH ____ DEN _ PHX _ SEA

 

+1.1___+0.3__0___-0.8_____+1.9__-3.2____-4.2__-2.1__0__

 

Edited to add the seasonal max:

 

98___97___96____98______102____102____97_116____98

[wxallannj]

DCA:  +0.7   98

NYC: +1.3    97

BOS: +1.5   95

ORD: +1.7   96

ATL: +1.3    99

IAH: -0.4    100

DEN: +0.7   95

PHX:  -0.6   115

SEA:  +3.4   93

[Damage In Tolland]

DCA: +2.9 104

NYC: +2.5 104
BOS: +2.0 100
ORD: +3.0 106
ATL: +2.8 102
IAH: +1.9 101
DEN: +3.5 106
PHX: +3.0 118
SEA: +4.0 99

[wxdude64]

DCA:  +1.3  100

NYC:  +1.0  98

BOS:  +0.7  96

ORD:  -0.2  96

ATL:  +1.0  98

IAH:  -0.7  103

DEN:  -1.1  97

PHX:  -1.1  117

SEA:  +2.5  94

[Scotty Lightning]

DCA _ NYC _ BOS ___ ORD _ ATL _ IAH ____ DEN _ PHX _ SEA

 

1.0       1.5      0.5         0.5        1.0      0.0          -1.0     1.0     1.0 

 

101     100     97           95        102      106         97       119    96

[bkviking]

DCA: +2.4 101

NYC: +2.7 100

BOS: +1.4 96

ORD: +1.5 98

ATL: +0.5 98

IAH: -0.5 99

DEN: +1.0 95

PHX: +0.5 118

SEA: +2.8 92

[Mallow]

DCA __ NYC __ BOS ______ ORD __ ATL __ IAH ______ DEN __ PHX __ SEA

 

+1.3 _ +1.5 __ +1.5 _____ +0.0 __ +0.8 __ -1.1 ______ -1.0 __ -2.9 __ +3.0

101 ___ 99 ___ 97 ________ 97 ___ 102 __ 103 _______ 100 __ 117 ___ 95

 

PDX: 103

[RodneyS]

DCA    __ NYC __ BOS ______ ORD __ ATL __ IAH ______ DEN __ PHX __ SEA

+1.0 _     +0.3 __ +0.2 _____  -2.2 __ +0.5 __ -1.6 ______ -2.8 __ -3.4 __ +3.2

99 ___        98 ___ 96 ________ 97 ___ 100 __ 104 _______ 99 __ 117 ___ 95

 

[donsutherland1]

DCA __ NYC __ BOS ______ ORD __ ATL __ IAH ______ DEN __ PHX __ SEA

 

+0.8 _ +1.0 __ +1.5 _____ +0.2 __ +0.2 __ -1.6 ______ -3.3 __ -0.6 __ +2.7

102 ___ 99 ___ 98 ________ 96 ___ 99 __ 103 _______ 97 __ 115 ___ 96

[WEATHER53]

Greetings from global contest headquarters ... the May forecast contest is open for entries, and as we've done for several years now, there is a bonus contest added, for the seasonal (2016 call it summer if you want) maximum temperature at the same nine locations.

 

The temperature forecast component is, as always, the departure in F deg from 1981-2010 normal values for these nine sites:

 

DCA _ NYC _ BOS ___ ORD _ ATL _ IAH ____ DEN _ PHX _ SEA

 

and the seasonal max contest asks you to predict the highest reading of 2016 at these locations.

 

Time penalties apply to the monthly temperature contest at the rate of 1% every 2 hours delayed beyond 06z of May 1st, to 18z May 2nd, after which it jumps to 1% per hour.

 

You can edit your seasonal max predictions up to the end of May 10th if you wish, or you can enter that bonus contest late, I won't be compiling a table of entries for the seasonal max until May 11th at the earliest, so no need to alert me to changes you might make. The monthly forecasts are tabulated quite early in the month and cross-checked for accuracy when I enter them into my excel scoring file.

 

Good luck! 

DCA:+2.0  103

NYC:+2.5  101

BOS:+2.5   99

ORD:+1.0  102

ATL:+2.0  104

IAH:+1.8  105

DEN:-1.8  97

PHX:-1.8  117

SEA: -1.8  91

[OHweather]

DCA: +1.5 104
NYC: +1.3 102
BOS: +1.0 99
ORD: +2.5 105
ATL: +1.8 100
IAH: +1.0 103
DEN:-2.0 100
PHX:-1.0 120
SEA: +1.0 93

[Roger Smith]

____ --0.5 _ --0.5 _ --0.7 _____ --0.7 _ --0.5 _ +0.8 ____ +3.0 _ +1.5 _ +1.8

 

_____ 103 _ 100 _ 97 ________ 96 __ 100 _ 102 _____ 101 _ 119 _ 100

[blazess556]

DCA: +1.7 103
NYC: +1.5 101
BOS: +1.2 98
ORD: +2.7 100
ATL: +1.9 98
IAH: +1.3 104
DEN:-1.7 101
PHX:-1.2 119
SEA: +1.3 95

[Midlo Snow Maker]

DCA: +1.5100

NYC: +1.2 99

BOS: +0.7 97

ORD: +1.9 100

ATL: +1.2 98

IAH: +1.6 103

DEN: +0.9 99

PHX: + 2.0 118

SEA: +3.5 93

[Stebo]

DCA: +1.7 102
NYC: +1.9 100
BOS: +1.5 97
ORD: +2 102
ATL: +2.4 100
IAH: +2.2 102
DEN: +3.5 97
PHX: + 1.1 116
SEA: -1.1 94

[Roger Smith]

Table of Forecasts -- May 2016

 

 

FORECASTER _________________ DCA _ NYC _ BOS __ ORD _ ATL _ IAH ___ DEN _ PHX _ SEA

 

Damage in Tolland ______________ +2.9 _ +2.5 _ +2.0 ___ +3.0 _ +2.8 _ +1.9 ___ +3.5 _ +3.0 _ +4.0

Dmillz25 ______________________ +2.7 _ +2.5 _ +1.6 ___ +2.5 _ +2.0 _ +2.3 ___ +1.0 _ +1.5 _ +1.0

BKViking ______________________ +2.4 _ +2.7 _ +1.4 ___ +1.5 _ +0.5 _ --0.5 ___ +1.0 _ +0.5 _ +2.8

Tenman Johnson _______________ +2.0 _ +2.5 _ +2.5 ___ +1.0 _ +2.0 _ +1.8 ___ --1.8 _ --1.8 _ --1.8

Maxim ________________________+2.0 _ +2.5 _ +1.5 ___ +3.5 _ --0.5 _ --1.5 ___ +1.5 _ +0.5 _ +4.0

Rjay __________________________+2.0 _ +2.0 _ +2.0 ___ +2.0 _ +1.0 _ +1.0 ___ +1.5 _ +1.0 _ +2.0

Stebo _____________ (-5%) ______ +1.7 _ +1.9 _ +1.5 ___ +2.0 _ +2.4 _ +2.2 ___ +3.5 _ +1.1 _ --1.1

blazess556 ____________________ +1.7 _ +1.5 _ +1.2 ___ +2.7 _ +1.9 _ +1.3 ___ --1.7 _ --1.2 _ +1.3

OHweather ____________________ +1.5 _ +1.3 _ +1.0 ___ +2.5 _ +1.8 _ +1.0 ___ --2.0 _ --1.0 _ +1.0

Midlo Snow Maker ___ (-4%) ______ +1.5 _ +1.2 _ +0.7 ___ +1.9 _ +1.2 _ +1.6 ___ +0.9 _ +2.0 _ +3.5

 

Consensus ____________________ +1.4 _ +1.4 _ +1.3 ___ +1.6 _ +1.2 _ +0.6 ___ --1.0 _ +0.5 _ +2.1

 

Mallow _______________________ +1.3 _ +1.5 _ +1.5 ____ 0.0 _ +0.8 _ --1.1 ___ --1.0 _ --2.9 _ +3.0

wxdude64 _____________________+1.3 _ +1.0 _ +0.7 ___ --0.2 _ +1.0 _ --0.7 ___ --1.1 _ --1.1 _ +2.5

Tom __________________________+1.2 _ +1.1 _ +1.1 ___ +0.9 _ +1.4 _ +0.9 ___ +0.7 _ +0.5 _ +0.2

hudsonvalley21 _________________+1.1 _ +1.2 _ +1.0 ___ +1.7 _ +1.2 _ +0.4 ___ --1.5 _ +0.4 _ +2.1

ksammut ______________________ +1.1 _ +0.3 __ 0.0 ___ --0.8 _ +1.9 _ --3.2 ___ --4.2 _ --2.1 __ 0.0

SD ___________________________ +1.0 _ +1.5 _ +0.5 ___ +0.5 _ +1.0 __ 0.0 ___ --1.0 _ +1.0 _ +1.0

RodneyS ______________________ +1.0 _ +0.3 _ +0.2 ___ --2.2 _ +0.5 _ --1.6 ___ --2.8 _ --3.4 _ +3.2

DonSutherland.1 ________________ +0.8 _ +1.0 _ +1.5 ___ +0.2 _ +0.2 _ --1.6 ___ --3.3 _ --0.6 _ +2.7

wxallannj ______________________ +0.7 _ +1.3 _ +1.5 ___ +1.7 _ +1.3 _ --0.4 ___ +0.7 _ --0.6 _ +3.4

 

Normal _________________________ 0.0 __ 0.0 __ 0.0 ____ 0.0 __ 0.0 __ 0.0 ____ 0.0 __ 0.0 __ 0.0

 

Roger Smith ____________________ --0.5 _ --0.5 _ --0.7 ___ --0.7 _ --0.5 _ +0.8 ___ +3.0 _ +1.5 _ +1.8

______________________________________________________________________________________

 

With the field now reduced to our twenty regular forecasters, consensus is mean of 10th and 11th ranked.  Warmest and coldest forecasts are color coded.

 

The seasonal max contest is open until May 10th, you can edit (or add in) entries without making a note in the seasonal max portion only -- and then a table of entries will be added to the thread.

 

All April scoring is now updated.

[Roger Smith]

After the first five, eight and ten days, current anomalies and forecasts (7d from NWS state forecasts, 8-16d from GFS 06z) ... next update on 13th after 12 days and in new post.

 

___________________ DCA _ NYC _ BOS ___ ORD _ ATL _ IAH ____ DEN _ PHX _ SEA

 

______ (5d) _________ --2.6 _ --7.5 _ --7.2 ___ --5.6 _ +1.4 _ --3.6 ____ --1.6 _ +0.2 _ +9.2

______ (8d) _________ --3.6 _ --6.9 _ --6.1 ___ --2.5 _ --0.1 _ --4.1 ____ --1.4 _ --3.4 _ +8.9

_____ (10d) _________ --3.9 _ --5.8 _ --4.6 ___ --2.3 _ +0.8 _ --2.8 ____ --1.4 _ --3.4 _ +7.9

 

_____ (p17d) ________ --2.2 _ --2.6 _ --2.0 ___ --1.5 _ +1.6 _ --1.2 ____ --1.5 _ --0.8 _ +6.2

 

_____ (p28d) ________ +1.5 _ +1.2 _ +1.2 ___ +2.0 _ +3.5 _ +1.0 ____ +0.5 __ 0.0 _ +5.0

 

 

(6th) _ To the 22nd, it looks very similar to how April went, cold to start in many parts except far west, then warm enough to reverse anomalies. Wonder if the last ten days will then be similar as well? (somewhat back to colder trends east and greater heat in the west).

 

(9th) _ Changes made today were relatively small, the outlook period has two peaks of warmth with some below normal days in between them for the east and more sustained warmth in central and western regions.

 

(11th) _ The only changes made from previous extended forecast were in south where warmth looks a bit less robust in the outlook period. Otherwise, it would take an average of about +4 at most locations to arrive at the numbers above and with a consistent if not spectacular warm trend (less so for DEN) these numbers seem to be on track. If there's issues with cloud though most of the eastern and central locations could be closer to zero anomalies than shown here.

[Roger Smith]

2016 Seasonal Maximum Contest --- Table of entries

 

 

FORECASTER ______________ DCA _ NYC _ BOS __ ORD _ ATL _ IAH ___ DEN _ PHX _ SEA

 

 

Damage in Tolland ___________ 104 _ 104 _ 100 _____ 106 _ 102 _ 101 ____ 106 _ 118 __ 99

OHWeather _________________ 104 _ 102 __ 99 _____ 105 _ 100 _ 103 ____ 100 _ 120 __ 93

DMillz25 ____________________103 _ 101 _ 100 _____ 102 _ 103 _ 103 ____ 100 _ 119 __ 97

Tenman Johnson ____________ 103 _ 101 __ 99 ______102 _ 104 _ 105 _____ 97 _ 117 __ 91

blazess556 _________________ 103 _ 101 __ 98 _____ 100 __ 98 _ 104 ____ 101 _ 119 __ 95

Roger Smith ________________ 103 _ 100 __ 97 ______ 96 _ 100 _ 102 ____ 101 _ 119 _ 100 (104 PDX)

Rjay _______________________102 _ 100 __ 98 _____ 101 _ 102 _ 102 _____ 99 _ 117 __ 95

Stebo ______________________102 _ 100 __ 97 _____ 102 _ 100 _ 102 _____ 97 _ 116 __ 94

DonSutherland.1 _____________ 102 __ 99 __ 98 ______96 __ 99 _ 103 _____ 97 _ 115 __ 96

SD ________________________ 101 _ 100 __ 97 ______95 _ 102 __ 96 _____ 97 _ 119 __ 96

..

Consensus __________________ 101 _ 100 __ 97 ____ 100 _ 100 _ 103 _____ 98 _ 117 __ 95

..

BKViking ___________________ 101 _ 100 __ 96 ______98 __ 98 __ 99 _____ 95 _ 118 __ 92

Midlo Snow Maker ____________ 100 __ 99 __ 97 ____ 100 __ 98 _ 103 _____ 99 _ 118 __ 93

Mallow _____________________ 100 __ 99 __ 97 _____ 97 _ 102 _ 103 _____100 _ 117 __ 95 (103 PDX)

Tom _______________________100 _ 100 __ 97 _____ 103 _ 102 _ 104 _____ 97 _ 118 __ 95

Maxim _____________________ 100 __ 99 __ 98 _____ 102 _ 100 _ 100 ____ 101 _ 117 __ 95

hudsonvalley21 ______________ 100 __ 98 __ 97 _____100 _ 100 _ 103 _____ 97 _ 116 __ 98

wxdude64 ___________________100 __ 98 __ 96 ______96 __ 98 _ 103 _____ 97 _ 117 __ 94

RodneyS ____________________ 99 __ 98 __ 96 ______ 97 _ 100 _ 104 _____ 99 _ 117 __ 95

ksammut ____________________ 98 __ 97 __ 96 ______ 98 _ 102 _ 102 _____ 97 _ 116 __ 98

wxallannj ____________________ 98 __ 97 __ 95 ______ 96 __ 99 _ 100 _____ 95 _ 115 __ 93

___________________________________________________________________________________

 

With 20 entries, the consensus values are average of 10th and 11th ranked. If the highest prediction is not at the top of the column, I highlighted it in bold for easier reading. Five of our max-max predictions come from Damage in Tolland (104 DCA, 104 NYC, 100 BOS, 106 at ORD and DEN) with two from Tenman Johnson (with 104 ATL and 105 IAH) , and two from OHweather (one a tied value with Damage for DCA at 104. and then also 120 at PHX), dmillz25 sharing 100 with Damage for BOS, and Roger Smith (100 at SEA).

 

The lowest values we came up with are 98 for DCA, 97 for NYC, 95 for BOS, 95 for ORD, 98 for ATL, 96 for IAH, 95 for DEN, 115 for PHX and 91 for SEA.

[Roger Smith]

Continuing the anomaly tracker ...

 

 

___________________ DCA _ NYC _ BOS ___ ORD _ ATL _ IAH ____ DEN _ PHX _ SEA

 

______ (5d) _________ --2.6 _ --7.5 _ --7.2 ___ --5.6 _ +1.4 _ --3.6 ____ --1.6 _ +0.2 _ +9.2

_____ (10d) _________ --3.9 _ --5.8 _ --4.6 ___ --2.3 _ +0.8 _ --2.8 ____ --1.4 _ --3.4 _ +7.9

_____ (12d) _________ --4.0 _ --4.0 _ --3.2 ___ --1.5 _ +1.8 _ --1.8 ____ --1.8 _ --2.3 _ +8.1

_____ (15d) _________ --3.8 _ --3.5e_--1.7 ___ --2.7e_+0.8e_--1.5 ____ --2.6e_--0.9e_+7.1e

_____ (17d) _________ --4.5 _ --4.1 _ --2.1e___--3.5 _ +0.3 _ --1.9 ____ --3.2e_--1.0e_+6.0e

_____ (19d) _________ --4.6 _ --3.8 _ --2.1 ___ --3.8 _ +0.4 _ --2.5 ____ --3.6  _--1.1 _ +5.7

_____ (21d) _________ --4.6 _ --3.6 _ --1.6 ___ --3.5 _ +0.1 _ --2.8 ____ --2.6 _--0.9 _ +5.1

_____ (22d) _________ --5.0 _ --3.5 _ --1.6 ___ --3.2 _ --0.1 _ --2.7 ____ --2.3 _--1.1 _ +4.9

_____ (23d) _________ --4.8 _ --3.3 _ --1.5 ___ --2.9 _ --0.2 _ --2.7 ____ --2.4 _--1.3 _ +4.8

_____ (24d) _________ --4.5 _ --3.1 _ --1.6 ___ --2.3 _ --0.1 _ --2.5 ____ --2.4 _--1.5 _ +4.7

_____ (25d) _________ --4.2 _ --2.6 _ --1.2 ___ --1.7 __ 0.0 _ --2.3 ____ --2.4 _--1.7 _ +4.6

_____ (26d) _________ --3.8 _ --1.9 _ --0.8 ___ --1.2 _ +0.2 _ --2.4 ____ --2.5 _--2.0 _ +4.3

_____ (27d) _________ --3.3 _ --1.4 _ --0.6 ___ --0.7 _ +0.4 _ --2.5 ____ --2.7 _--2.2 _ +4.1

_____ (28d) _________ --2.9 _ --0.8 __ 0.0 ___ --0.4 _ +0.5 _ --2.6 ____ --2.8 _--2.2 _ +3.9

_____ (29d) _________ --2.6 _ --0.3 _ +0.1 ___ --0.1 _ +0.6 _ --2.5 ____ --2.7 _--2.1 _ +3.8

_____ (30d) _________ --2.4 __ 0.0 _ +0.2 ___ +0.3 _ +0.8 _ --2.5 ____ --2.7 _--2.2 _ +3.7

 

_____ (31d) _________ --2.1 _ +0.4 _  +0.7 ___ +0.6 _ +1.0 _ --2.4 ____ --2.7 _--2.2 _ +3.8

 

 

As of 0930h EDT June 1st, all locations have confirmed their monthly anomaly.

[Roger Smith]

Final scoring for May 2016

  

 

FORECASTER ________________ DCA_NYC_BOS__east ___ ORD_ATL_IAH___cent ____ TOTAL

 

 

DonSutherland.1 ________________42 _ 88 _ 84 ____ 214 ____ 92 _ 84 _ 84 ____ 260 ____ 474

wxdude64 _____________________32 _ 88 _100____ 220 ____ 84 _100_ 66 ____ 250 ____ 470

SD ___________________________38 _ 78 _ 96 ____ 212 ____ 98 _100_ 52 ____ 250 ____ 462

ksammut ______________________36 _ 98 _ 86 ____ 220 ____ 72 _ 82 _ 84 ____ 238 ____ 458

 

Normal _______________________ 58 _ 92 _ 86 ____ 236 ____ 88 _ 80 _ 52 ____ 220 ____ 456

 

Mallow _______________________ 32 _ 78 _ 84 ____ 194 ____ 88 _ 96 _ 74 ____ 258 ____ 452

RodneyS ______________________38 _ 98 _ 90 ____ 226 ____ 44 _ 90 _ 84 ____ 218 ____ 444

wxallannj ______________________44 _ 82 _ 84 ____ 210 ____ 78 _ 94 _ 60 ____ 232 ____ 442

hudsonvalley21 _________________36 _ 84 _ 94 ____ 214 ____ 78 _ 96 _ 44 ____ 218 ____ 432

Tom __________________________34 _ 86 _ 92 ____ 212 ____ 94 _ 92 _ 34 ____ 220 ____ 432

 

Consensus ____________________ 30 _ 80 _ 88 ____ 198 ____ 80 _ 96 _ 40 ____ 216 ____ 414

 

Roger Smith ___________________ 68 _ 82 _ 72 ____ 222 ____ 74 _ 70 _ 36 ____ 180 ____ 402

Midlo Snow Maker ______________ 28 _ 84 _100____ 212 ____ 74 _ 96 _ 20 ____ 190 _ 402

__________________ (-4%) ______ 27 _ 81 _ 96 ____ 204 ____ 71 _ 92 _ 19 ____ 182 ____ 386  

BKViking ______________________ 10 _ 54 _ 86 ____ 150 ____ 82 _ 90 _ 62 ____ 234 ____ 384

OHweather ____________________ 28 _ 82 _ 94 ____ 204 ____ 62 _ 84 _ 32 ____ 178 ____ 382

Rjay __________________________18 _ 68 _ 74 ____ 160 ____ 72 _100_ 32 ____ 204 ____ 364

blazess556 ____________________ 24 _ 78 _ 90 ____ 192 ____ 58 _ 82 _ 26 ____ 166 ____ 358  

Maxim ________________________18 _ 58 _ 84 ____ 160 ____ 42 _ 70 _ 82 ____ 194 ____ 354

Tenman Johnson _______________ 18 _ 58 _ 64 ____ 140 ____ 92 _ 80 _ 16 ____ 188 ____ 328

Stebo _________________________24 _ 70 _ 84 ____ 178 ____ 72 _ 72 _ 08 ____ 152 _ 330

__________________ (-5%) ______ 23 _ 67 _ 80 ____ 170 ____ 68 _ 69 _ 08 ____ 145 ____ 315

Dmillz25 ______________________ 04 _ 58 _ 82 ____ 144 ____ 62 _ 80 _ 06 ____ 152 ____ 292

Damage in Tolland ______________ 00 _ 58 _ 74 ____ 132 ____ 52 _ 64 _ 14 ____ 130 ____ 262

 

 

Final scoring for western and all-nine contests

 

 

FORECASTER ________________ DEN_PHX_SEA ____ west _______ all nine (=rank)

 

RodneyS ______________________ 98 _ 76 _ 88 ______ 262 ________ 706 (= 2)

Mallow ________________________ 66_ 86 _ 84 ______ 236 ________ 688 (= 4)

DonSutherland.1 ________________ 88 _ 68 _ 78 ______ 234 ________ 708 (= 1)

wxdude64 _____________________ 68 _ 78 _ 74 ______ 220 ________ 690 (= 3)

blazess556 ____________________ 80 _ 80 _ 50 ______ 210 ________ 568 (=10)

OHweather ____________________ 86 _ 76 _ 44 ______ 206 ________ 588 (= 9)

ksammut ______________________ 70 _ 98 _ 24 ______ 192 ________ 650 (= 5)

wxallannj ______________________ 32 _ 68 _ 92 ______ 192 ________ 634 (= 6)

hudsonvalley21 _________________ 76 _ 48 _ 66 ______ 190 ________ 622 (= 7)

 

Consensus ____________________ 66 _ 46 _ 66 ______ 178 ________ 592 (= 9)

 

Tenman Johnson ________________82 _ 92 _ 00 ______ 174 ________ 502 (=15)

Maxim ________________________ 16 _ 46 _ 96 ______ 158 ________ 512 (=14)

BKViking ______________________ 26 _ 46 _ 80 ______ 152 ________ 536 (=12)

SD ___________________________ 66 _ 36 _ 44 ______ 146 ________ 608 (= 8)

Midlo Snow Maker_______________ 28 _ 16 _ 94 _ 138

____________________ (-4%) _____27 _ 15 _ 90 ______ 132 ________ 518 (=13)

 

Normal ________________________46 _ 56 _ 24 ______ 126 ________ 582 (=10)

 

Rjay __________________________16 _ 36 _ 64 ______ 116 ________ 480 (=17)

Tom __________________________32 _ 46 _ 28 ______ 106 ________ 538 (=11)

Damage in Tolland ______________ 00 _ 00 _ 96 ______ 096 ________ 358 (=19)

Dmillz25 ______________________ 26 _ 26 _ 44 ______ 096 ________ 388 (=18)

Roger Smith ___________________ 00 _ 26 _ 60 ______ 086 ________ 488 (=16)

Stebo _____________ (-5%) ______ 00 _ 34 _ 02 _ 36 __ 034 ________ 349 (=20)

[Roger Smith]

=======<<<< UPDATED ANNUAL SCORING JANUARY to MAY 2016 >>>>=======

 

 

 

FORECASTER ______ DCA_NYC_BOS __ east ___ ORD_ATL_IAH __ cent __ TOTAL __ Best scores

 

 

01 DonSutherland.1 ___ 339 . 369 . 312 __ 1020 ___ 351 . 368 . 348 ___ 1067 ___ 2087 __ 010011 . 1. 1 .. MAY

02 wxallannj _________ 303 . 358 . 340 __ 1001 ___ 336 . 332 . 358 ___ 1026 ___ 2027 __ 010100 . 0 . 1 .. APR

03 BKViking _________ 277 . 356 . 320 ___ 953 ___ 385 . 366 . 322 ___ 1073 ___ 2026 __ 000200 . 0 . 1 .. JAN

04 Mallow___________ 291 . 368 . 346 __ 1005 ___ 380 . 266 . 362 ___ 1008 ___ 2013 __ 100001. 0 . 0

05 wxdude64 ________ 322 . 341 . 342 __ 1005 ___ 308 . 352 . 332 ____ 992 ___ 1997 __ 011010 . 0 . 0

 

06 MidloSnowMaker___ 310 . 345 . 370 __ 1025 ___ 331 . 362 . 259 ____ 952 ___ 1977 __ 011010 . 1 . 0 .. FEB

 

07 RodneyS _________ 351 . 324 . 308 ___ 983 ___ 269 . 316 . 386 ____ 971 ___ 1954 __ 110001 . 1 . 1

 

 

08 hudsonvalley21 ____ 297 . 340 . 318 ___ 955 ___ 354 . 352 . 290 ____ 996 ___ 1951 __ 000000 . 0 . 0

 

09 Consensus________ 321 . 342 . 298 ___ 961 ___ 304 . 364 . 306 ____ 974 ___ 1935 __ 000000 . 0 . 0

 

09 blazess556 _______ 276 . 356 . 340 ___ 972 ___ 218 . 398 . 284 ____ 900 ___ 1872 __ 000011 . 0 . 0

10 SD ______________ 279 . 318 . 282 ___ 879 ___ 280 . 332 . 310 ____ 922 ___ 1801 __ 000110 . 0 . 0

 

11 OHweather _______ 263 . 361 . 339 ___ 963 ___ 219 . 335 . 272 ____ 826 ___ 1789 __ 000010 . 0 . 0

 

11 Normal___________ 316 . 300 . 252 ___ 868 ___ 294 . 294 . 320 ____ 908 ___ 1776 __ 000000 . 1 . 0

 

12 Damage in Tolland _ 315 . 324 . 278 ___ 917 ___ 252 . 364 . 240 ____ 856 ___ 1773 __ 100010 . 0 . 0

13 ksammut _________ 333 . 323 . 298 ___ 954 ___ 223 . 296 . 292 ____ 811 ___ 1765 __ 111001 . 1 . 0 

14 Rjay_____________ 316 . 291 . 247 ___ 854 ___ 273 . 357 . 235 ____ 865 ___ 1719 __ 100010 . 0 . 0

15 Maxim ___________ 215 . 290 . 390 ___ 895 ___ 190 . 312 . 312 ____ 814 ___ 1709 __ 002000 . 0 . 1 .. MAR

 

16 Roger Smith ______ 319 . 250 . 244 ___ 813 ___ 250 . 312 . 308 ____ 870 ___ 1683 __ 200001 . 0 . 0

17 Stebo____________ 270 . 277 . 268 ___ 815 ___ 228 . 349 . 284 ____ 861 ___ 1676 __ 000001 . 0 . 1

18 Tenman Johnson __ 277 . 244 . 278 ___ 799 ___ 272 . 236 . 266 ____ 774 ___ 1573 __ 100100 . 0 . 0

19 dmillz25__________ 244 . 238 . 248 ___ 730 ___ 258 . 320 . 230 ____ 808 ___ 1538 __ 100100 . 0 . 0

20 Tom_____________ 259 . 250 . 234 ___ 743 ___ 216 . 270 . 244 ____ 730 ___ 1473 __ 000000 . 0 . 0

 

 

(lower ranked scores with missing months can be found in earlier monthly scoring tables)

[Roger Smith]

=== <<<<< Annual Updated Scoring for western and for all nine contests Jan to May 2016 >>>>> ===

 

 

FORECASTER __________ DEN_PHX_SEA __ TOTALS _ best scores (mo) _ All Nine Totals __ best scores

 

 

01 DonSutherland.1 _______ 296 _ 258 _ 382 _____ 936 ________ 0 0 1 _ Apr __ 3023 (= 1) ___ MAY

02 wxallannj _____________ 234 _ 312 _ 372 _____ 916 ________ 0 0 1 _______ 2945 (= 2) ___ APR

 

03 Consensus ___________ 308 _ 270 _ 294 _____ 872 ________ 0 0 0 _______ 2807 (= 7)

 

03 wxdude64 ____________ 301 _ 271 _ 294 _____ 866 ________ 0 0 1 _ Jan __ 2863 (= 3) ___ JAN

04 Midlo Snow Maker______ 254 _ 238 _ 366 _____ 858 ________ 1 0 1 _ Mar __ 2835 (= 5t ___ FEB

05 hudsonvalley21 ________ 319 _ 266 _ 253 _____ 838 ________ 0 1 0 _______2789 (= 7)

06 Damage in Tolland _____ 241 _ 214 _ 382 _____ 837 ________ 0 0 1 _______ 2610 (= 9)

 

07 Mallow _______________228 _ 247 _ 366 _____ 841 ________ 0 0 0 _______ 2854 (= 4)

08 BKViking _____________ 257 _ 248 _ 304 _____ 809 ________ 0 0 0 _______ 2835 (= 5t

09 Maxim _______________ 174 _ 248 _ 368 _____ 790 ________ 0 1 1 _______2499 (=12) ___ MAR

10 RodneyS _____________ 265 _ 221 _ 282 _____ 768 ________1 0 0 _ May __2722 (= 8)

11 OHweather ___________ 240 _ 274 _ 250 _____ 764 ________ 1 0 0 _______ 2553 (=10)

12 Tenman Johnson _______275 _ 308 _ 118 _____ 701 ________1 1 0 _ Feb __ 2274 (=17)

13 Rjay _________________204 _ 225 _ 265 _____ 694 ________ 0 0 0 _______ 2413 (=15)

14 Tom _________________235 _ 239 _ 218 _____ 692 ________ 0 0 0 _______ 2165 (=19)

15 ksammut _____________ 246 _ 286 _ 156 _____ 688 ________ 0 1 0 _______2453 (=13)

 

16 Normal _______________296 _ 240 _ 152 _____ 688 ________ 1 0 0 ________2464 (=13)

 

16 dmillz25 ______________245 _ 166 _ 270 _____ 681 ________ 0 0 0 _______ 2219 (=18)

17 SD __________________ 226 _ 206 _ 208 _____ 640 ________ 0 0 0 _______ 2441 (=14)

18 blazess556 ____________195 _ 230 _ 208 _____ 633 ________ 0 0 0 _______ 2505 (=11)

19 Roger Smith ___________108 _ 242 _ 260 _____ 610 ________ 0 1 0 _______ 2293 (=16)

20 stebo ________________ 169 _ 186 _ 114 _____ 471 ________ 0 0 0 _______ 2147 (=20)

 

21 debeaches*___________ 138 __ 66 _ 204 _____ 408 ________ 0 0 0 _______ 1205 (=22)

22 H2OTown_Wx*________ 135 __ 97 _ 175 _____ 407 ________ 0 0 0 _______ 1227 (=21)

23 Isotherm**_____________ 52 __ 94 _ 150 _____ 296 ________ 0 0 0 ________ 786 (=23)

24 snoski14*** ____________88 __ 96 __ 86 _____ 270 ________ 0 1 0 _ Jan ____608 (=28)

25 snowweenie***__________92 __ 70 __ 94 _____ 256 ________ 0 0 0 ________ 638 (=27)

26 Daniel Boone***_________70 __ 92 __ 90 _____ 252 ________ 0 0 0 ________ 642 (=25)

27 snow88***____________ 100 __ 34 __ 80 _____ 214 ________ 1 0 0 ________ 595 (=29)

28 nzucker***_____________ 90 __ 68 __ 49 _____ 207 ________ 0 0 0 ________ 660 (=24)

29 Quincy***______________90 __ 75 __ 39 _____ 204 ________ 0 0 0 ________ 640 (=26)

30 rcontinelli***____________ 56__ 00 __ 54 _____ 110 ________ 0 0 0 ________ 269 (=30)

__________________________________________________________________

 

* missed two months (April, May)

** missed three months (March-May)

*** missed four months (Feb-May for 24-26 and 28 Jan-Feb and Apr-May for 27 and 30, Jan-Mar and May for 29).

 

best scores for the three stations, months in red ... and best scores for all nine shown for each month in green.

[Roger Smith]

Four Seasons Awards 2015-16 ... Updated Standings for Winter and Spring 2015-16

 

 

These total scores from March, April and May 2016 determine points awarded in the Four Seasons competition. To qualify, a forecaster must forecast all three months. It's ten points to the winner, seven for second place, and counting down from there until reaching 8th, 9th and 10th place which all get one point. Normal and Consensus are scored but then ignored in terms of points for lower-finishing forecasters.

 

There are three separate contests within this section, the "main" contest (six locations), the western contest, and for all nine. The table is arranged so that scores are in order for the main contest, they may be in different orders for the other two, and for total points to date. Points from the winter season are shown (in brackets) together with the new totals for spring and the current contest totals. An entry of -- in scoring means no points gained.

 

 

FORECASTER

.................../ Main contest total score __ Points .../////// Western total __ Points ...///// All Nine ____ Points

 

._._._._._._._._.._..._. spring .... winter spring TOT .... spring .... win . spr . TOT ..... spring ... win .. spr ... TOT

 

 

DonSutherland.1 ____1331____ (7) __ 10 __ 17____ 632 ____ -- __ 7 __ 7____ 1963 ____ (5) __10 __ 15

Mallow ____________1285____ (4) ___ 7 __11 ____ 536 ____ -- __ 1 __ 1 ____1821 ____ (1) __ 5 ___ 6

wxallannj __________1259____ (5) ___ 6 __11 ____ 602 ___ (1) __ 6 __ 7 ____ 1861 ____ (2) __ 7 ___ 9

BKViking __________ 1250____ --- ___ 5 ___5 ____ 490 ___ (6) __ 1 __ 7 ____ 1740 ____ --- __ 4 ___ 4

Maxim ____________ 1203____ --- ___ 4 ___4 ____ 524 ____ -- __ 1 __ 1 ____ 1727 ____ --- __ 3 ___ 3

OHweather ________ 1199____ --- ___ 3 ___3 ____ 483 ___ (1)  __ -- __ 1 ____1682 ____ --- __ 1 ___ 1

Rodney S _________ 1194____ (1) ___ 2 ___3 ____ 636 ___ --- __ 10 __10 ___ 1830 ____ --- __ 6 ___ 6

 

Consensus ________ 1187____ -- ___ 1 ___ 1 ____ 556 ___ (5) __ 3 ___ 8 ____ 1743____ (2) __ 4 ___ 6

 

wxdude64 _________ 1177____ -- ___ 1 ___ 1 ____ 548 ___ -- ___ 2 ___ 2 ____ 1725____ -- ___ 2 ___ 2

hudsonvalley21 _____1139____ (7) ___1 ___ 8 ____ 559 ___ -- ___ 4 ___ 4 ____ 1698____ (3) __ 1 ___ 4

Roger Smith _______ 1137____ -- ___ 1 ___ 1 ____ 432 ___ -- ___ -- ___ 0 ____ 1569____ -- ___ -- ___ 0

 

Midlo Snow Maker __ 1107___ (10) __ -- __ 10 ____ 554 ___ --- ___ 3 ___ 3 ____ 1661____ (6) __ 1 ___ 7

blazess556 ________ 1086____ -- ___ -- ___ 0 ____ 385 ___ -- ___ -- ___ 0 ____ 1471____ (1) __ -- ___ 1

Damage in Tolland __ 1075____ (1) __ -- ___ 1 ____ 482 ___ (5) __ -- ___ 5 ____ 1557____ (4) __ -- ___ 4

SD _______________ 1065 ___ -- ___ -- ___ 0 ____ 372 ___ (1) __ -- ___ 1 ____ 1437____ (1) __  -- ___ 1

ksammut __________ 1053 ___ (2) __ -- ___ 2 ____ 578 ___ --- ___ 5 ___ 5 ____ 1631____ --- __ --- ___ 0

Stebo _____________1042 ____ -- __ -- ___ 0 ____ 210 ___ (2) ___ --___ 2 ____ 1252____ --- __ --- ___ 0

 

Normal ____________1016 ____ -- __ -- ___ 0 ____ 438 ___ --- ___ --- ___0 ____ 1454____ --- __ --- ___ 0

 

Tom ______________1001 ____ -- __ -- ___ 0 ____ 402 ___ (4) __ --- ___ 4 _____1403____ --- __ ---___ 0

Rjay _______________989 ___ (1) __ -- ___ 1 ____ 378 ___ (7) ___ -- ___7 _____1367____ (7) __ ---___ 7

Tenman Johnson ____ 989 ____ -- __ -- ___ 0_____376 ___ --- __ --- ___ 0 _____1365____ --- __ --- ___ 0

dmillz25 ___________ 780 ____ (3) ___ -- __ 3 ____358 ___ (10)__ -- __ 10 _____1138____ (10) __ -- _ 10

 

Isotherm ___________ ---- ____ -- ____ -- ___0 ____ --- ____ (3) __ -- ___ 3 ______ ---- ___ --- ___ --- __ 0

[Roger Smith]

E X T R E M E   F O R E C A S T  U P D A T E

 

hey that's scary kids ...

 

 

There were 18 extreme forecasts out of the 36 possible results January through April. This month adds four ... DCA, NYC, IAH and SEA. If you want to see the previous ones, check the April thread.

 

Some other locations came close. BOS was won by the 5th most extreme forecast, ORD by the 6th most extreme, DEN and PHX by the 3rd most extreme. The least extreme outcome was ATL relative to our consensus. When determining second most extreme forecast for DCA and NYC, Normal at 0.0 was bypassed for contest entrants. If the outcome at NYC had been closer to zero (-0.2 to +0.1), Normal might have been credited with a win as well as the two forecasters who did win.

 

 

Month __ Loc'n ____ Anomaly ____ Extreme fcst ___ 2nd most extreme ___ W-L decision

 

MAY ___ DCA _____ --2.1 _______ --0.5 Roger S __ +0.7 ______________ W Roger Smith

MAY ___ NYC _____ +0.4 _______ --0.5 Roger S __ +0.3 RodneyS, ksam _ W RodS,ksam .. L Roger Smith

MAY ___ IAH ______--2.4 _______ --3.2 ksammut _ --1.6 RodneyS, DonS _ W shared by ksam, RodS and DonS

MAY ___ SEA _____ +3.8 _______ +4.0 Dam,Max _ +3.5 _______________ W Damage, Maxim

 

Updated forecaster records in extreme forecasts

 

Midlo Snow Maker ____4-1

 

Tenman Johnson _____3-0

DonSutherland.1 _____ 3-0

RodneyS ___________ 3-0*

 

wxallannj ___________ 2-0

Damage in Tolland ____2-0

ksammut ___________ 2-0

 

Roger Smith _________2-2

Maxim ______________2-1

 

dmillz25 ____________ 1-0

 

Blazess556 __________1-0

OHweather __________1-0

 

Normal _____________ 1-0

 

debeaches __________ 0-3

 

*plus one "no decision" __ RodneyS and Quincy (they were closer by forecast back in April, but lost on time penalties to the high score).