A-L-E-K Posted May 10, 2016 Share Posted May 10, 2016 Yep. Coming into this year I had a gut feeling that we would have a hot and dry summer. Definitely not feeling that anymore. i still like prospect for heat as we enter late summer and early spring but the early spring modeling for dry conditions in the region is busting bad Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Perry Posted May 10, 2016 Share Posted May 10, 2016 i still like prospect for heat as we enter late summer and early spring but the early spring modeling for dry conditions in the region is busting bad X2... Really feel like this is one of those years where we go from 50's right to the 80's. It could be a muggy summer after all this rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted May 10, 2016 Share Posted May 10, 2016 0.94" of rain so far here. I don't think it's going to be a hot and dry summer. Heat will likely be delayed this summer. Area of KS and NE have really been pounded by rains this spring and that doesn't bode well for a heat ridge forming out that way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RCNYILWX Posted May 10, 2016 Share Posted May 10, 2016 i still like prospect for heat as we enter late summer and early spring but the early spring modeling for dry conditions in the region is busting bad This. We easily could still have a warm summer. Seems like the way things have progressed, something like 2010 (consistently very warm, humid and active) is more likely than hot and dry.The analogs of El Ninos transitioning to neutral and then La Nina in summer do not have a very strong signal for precipitation, with a slight lean toward drier though several wet summers are mixed in, such as 2010. There is, however, a strong signal for warmth. I wouldn't want to rule anything out yet, but it's possible that extreme heat instances are limited and instead we get consistent very warm and humid, with more 90 degree days overall than in the past 3 summers. I forgot if 2012 broke the record or not, but 2010 did set a record for consecutive 80+ days in Chicago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted May 10, 2016 Share Posted May 10, 2016 This. We easily could still have a warm summer. Seems like the way things have progressed, something like 2010 (consistently very warm, humid and active) is more likely than hot and dry. The analogs of El Ninos transitioning to neutral and then La Nina in summer do not have a very strong signal for precipitation, with a slight lean toward drier though several wet summers are mixed in, such as 2010. There is, however, a strong signal for warmth. I wouldn't want to rule anything out yet, but it's possible that extreme heat instances are limited and instead we get consistent very warm and humid, with more 90 degree days overall than in the past 3 summers. I forgot if 2012 broke the record or not, but 2010 did set a record for consecutive 80+ days in Chicago. 2012 had 46 90+ degree days at ORD, just shy of the record of 47 in 1988. 2005 holds the record for most 80+ degree days in a year with 103. 2012 had 101 days of 80+ and 2010 had 98 days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RCNYILWX Posted May 10, 2016 Share Posted May 10, 2016 2012 had 46 90+ degree days at ORD, just shy of the record of 47 in 1988.Yep, and that was pretty annoying we didn't at least tie that record. But do you recall if the 2010 record of consecutive 80s was also broken? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted May 10, 2016 Share Posted May 10, 2016 Yep, and that was pretty annoying we didn't at least tie that record. But do you recall if the 2010 record of consecutive 80s was also broken? 2010 had 46 consecutive 80s and 2012 had 44 consecutive 80s. The streak in 2010 was very close to going well over 50 days as it was interrupted by one day with a high of 79. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RCNYILWX Posted May 10, 2016 Share Posted May 10, 2016 2010 had 46 consecutive 80s and 2012 had 44 consecutive 80s. The streak in 2010 was very close to going well over 50 days as it was interrupted by one day with a high of 79.Awesome thanks. I thought it still held the record. Recall it very well because it was my first summer in Chicago and I remember when Gino put out the PNS about the record being set. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted May 10, 2016 Share Posted May 10, 2016 48° with driving rain currently. Passed over an inch now total from this event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtrackertf Posted May 10, 2016 Share Posted May 10, 2016 Heavy virga all day. Finally getting some mist and light rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted May 10, 2016 Share Posted May 10, 2016 2010 had 46 consecutive 80s and 2012 had 44 consecutive 80s. The streak in 2010 was very close to going well over 50 days as it was interrupted by one day with a high of 79. beaches were bathwater, those were the days Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted May 10, 2016 Share Posted May 10, 2016 Beautiful weather up here in the eastern part of the UP. Mostly sunny and 60 right on Whitefish Bay. Hopefully this continues into tomorrow and Thursday for sightseeing/hiking. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chambana Posted May 10, 2016 Author Share Posted May 10, 2016 beaches were bathwater, those were the days Haven't seen a best climo post from you in a minute. You've gotta be dreading this nonsense lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted May 10, 2016 Share Posted May 10, 2016 Enough rain fell out there today, to cause some significant ponding on roadways. Was just out doing errands and there was quite a few spots where the water was 3-4" deep. Rain has lightened up, but now the fog is developing. 1.35" of rain total. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UMB WX Posted May 10, 2016 Share Posted May 10, 2016 Today at least we topped last yrs high of 47 by 1 degree. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted May 10, 2016 Share Posted May 10, 2016 Interesting day with these tiny little cells popping up all over. Some have shown supercellular characteristics. Even a few funnel cloud reports the last few hour. Picked up 0.36" of rain today. My dad in the eastern QC had over an inch. Took this cell pic at work, looking southwest towards the QC. This persisted for over an hour as it slowly drifted from right to left. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted May 10, 2016 Share Posted May 10, 2016 Beautiful weather up here in the eastern part of the UP. Mostly sunny and 60 right on Whitefish Bay. Hopefully this continues into tomorrow and Thursday for sightseeing/hiking.Love it up there. Cloudy and low 50s here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indystorm Posted May 10, 2016 Share Posted May 10, 2016 Interesting snippet from Gil at NIU today. With so much cool air in place, I do not see an end to the cooler weatherfor another couple of weeks. What makes me nervous is that this pattern iseerily similar to other strong El Ninos that we've had, and then severeweather goes nuts in late May and part of June in our area. We'll have towait to see how this develops Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted May 11, 2016 Share Posted May 11, 2016 Lovely evening here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indystorm Posted May 11, 2016 Share Posted May 11, 2016 Peaceful and calm photo, Stebo. Rest up for some action later in May. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted May 11, 2016 Share Posted May 11, 2016 Peaceful and calm photo, Stebo. Rest up for some action later in May.I hope so! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HillsdaleMIWeather Posted May 11, 2016 Share Posted May 11, 2016 Peaceful and calm photo, Stebo. Rest up for some action later in May. 18Z GFS would be your dream run then, haha. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hlcater Posted May 11, 2016 Share Posted May 11, 2016 Mid-late may is a severe weather fiesta out here! alas its all fantasy range. One can hope though! Edit: per 18z GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted May 11, 2016 Share Posted May 11, 2016 Mid-late may is a severe weather fiesta out here! alas its all fantasy range. One can hope though! Edit: per 18z GFS Models been really hitting the last 10 days of the month for a while now going back to the CFS and now the GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IWXwx Posted May 11, 2016 Share Posted May 11, 2016 The area around FWA got hammered with heavy rain this evening. One report of 3.43" in a couple of hours. I 69 is shut down due to flash flooding with 5 cars partially submerged in the middle of the interstate. Radar estimates, with the bullseye just west of the airport: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted May 11, 2016 Share Posted May 11, 2016 Today at least we topped last yrs high of 47 by 1 degree. Are you in the soup there? Visibility down to a 100 feet or so here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
outflow Posted May 11, 2016 Share Posted May 11, 2016 I'm off work til mid June because if surgery but I can still drive. I'm going to be pretty disappointed if there isn't any locally to go look at in that timeframe. Hell at this point I'll take just some thunderstorms period let alone SVR or TOR Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
slow poke Posted May 11, 2016 Share Posted May 11, 2016 Lovely evening here20160510_200508.jpg Was this pic taken near Brimley/Bay Mills area Stebo? Looks like a great day weather wise up that way, and no bugs yet! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted May 11, 2016 Share Posted May 11, 2016 got that endor vibe going Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonger Posted May 11, 2016 Share Posted May 11, 2016 Beautiful weather up here in the eastern part of the UP. Mostly sunny and 60 right on Whitefish Bay. Hopefully this continues into tomorrow and Thursday for sightseeing/hiking. Have you ever crossed into Ontario through SSM? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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