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May 2016 General Discussion.


Chambana

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Something tells me the thunderstorms that are forecast for this afternoon here in southern Ontario are going to be significant in some way. A few days ago no storms were forecast and then it popped up 48 or so hours ago. I'm in the MRGL category. It doesn't have to meet severe criteria, we don't get them often so anything with hail and highish winds is an event. Its going to be the hottest day and most humid by far and then storm/rain til midnight (shows it starting about 2:00 pm). May 12 is a notorious day for severe here as the worst thunderstorm I've ever experienced happened 16 years ago this afternoon - right when this system is expected to effect me. There was also another day either last year or 2 years ago where severe was possible but that busted or didn't do anything. Another ominous sign is the mode of storms is going to be similar to May 12, 2000 in terms of multi-cells and/or disorganized MCS. I don't think the environment will be anywhere near 16 years ago but even half would cause me to drop everything and pay close attention. Its been a ridiculously lousy severe season here so far where only 2 mild thunderstorms have happened in 2016, that balance is coming and today is the day IMO.

 

Looking at the models, I don't think there's going to be much significant severe today. Thunder yes, maybe the occasional damaging gust and probably heaviest downpours of the season.

 

I wouldn't call it a "ridiculously lousy" severe season here... severe weather usually doesn't even start locally until about mid-May, and runs through into early August. We also had an EF-1 tornado in February which was the earliest on record, so to make such a judgement on the severe season at this point really makes no sense IMO.

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Looking at the models, I don't think there's going to be much significant severe today. Thunder yes, maybe the occasional damaging gust and probably heaviest downpours of the season.

 

I wouldn't call it a "ridiculously lousy" severe season here... severe weather usually doesn't even start locally until about mid-May, and runs through into early August. We also had an EF-1 tornado in February which was the earliest on record, so to make such a judgement on the severe season at this point really makes no sense IMO.

 

Thanks for the model update, I wanted to know what they were indicating. I just need a good show and that would be a success, no severe needed. There is an excellent chance this will be the heaviest (storm) rain event of the year based on what the hourlies are showing and the wringing out til midnight.

 

Its been ridiculously lousy in my backyard, I can't remember the last time I've only seen 2 storms up til this point and one had some decent lightning and nothing else (while the temperature was near freezing!). A hour south probably has had more. I forgot about the twister in my general area but I overlooked it because it was out of the blue on a non-storm day, so overall severe season isn't the worst if you take that record early tornado into account. When I wrote lousy and boring, I'm not talking about severe thunderstorms as that is rare anytime in general here in Midwestern territory, just regular thunderstorms.

 

I'm at 23-24ºC already so my high is forecast now to get to 26ºC feeling like 29C; nice. Hourlies still showing storms starting at 2:00 pm, interested to see where the storms fire up.

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more bangerz

nam4km_ref_frzn_ncus_36.png

My plan is to leave Escanaba tomorrow and head toward Rockford or further south along 39 to chase that stuff.

I will say this, the air mass behind the first front isn't that cold. I am in Crystal Falls in the western UP and it is 68.

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Models have been consistently showing the big warmup. I just wish we didn't have to wait ten days to see it. I have plants that are aching to get out of their little pots and cells, but the weekend chill will continue to put planting on hold.

Yeah the ole no planting until after Mother's Day rule of thumb will fail this year, some eager anxious planters might regret their decision this weekend. My mater plants are ready though. I see the freeze mark makes it to N central Illinois Saturday night. Places south might be spared, maybe isolated rural areas.

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This must be outstanding grass growing weather, as I had just mowed over the weekend, and today it was ridiculously long already.  So mowed again tonight.  Just like last year it's a mow every 5 days kind of year I guess.  

 

The storm last night put us over the 2" mark for rain this month already.

 

Same out this way. 8 out of 12 days with measurable precip and 10 out of 12 with at least a trace. The grass is always too wet/almost too wet to mow.

 

2.89" here for the first 12 days of May with some more to be added tonight.

 

The Euro is still advertising a nice ridge by next weekend.

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