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Severe Threats Apr. 24-May 1


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Cu field here at home is starting to take off decently.  Showing some modest vertical build.  Should really take off over the next hour.  Storms should fire up very close to here next hour or two.  

 

EDIT:  Looking at vis, looks like a prefrontal zone of convergence is lining up from extreme NW IL down to a little west of DVN.  That may be what fires in a little while.

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From a chasing standpoint, I think I'll play the southern end of the line.  HRRR has been fairly adamant about that being around the I-80 corridor.  That plan may change though once things fire and we see how things shake out.

 

 

 

yep, actually looks decent right around LOT or not too far west

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Watch is out.

 

 

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
   SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 103
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   215 PM CDT MON APR 25 2016

   THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A

   * SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
     FAR EASTERN IOWA
     NORTHERN ILLINOIS
     FAR NORTHWEST INDIANA
     SOUTHEAST WISCONSIN
     LAKE MICHIGAN

   * EFFECTIVE THIS MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 215 PM UNTIL
     1000 PM CDT.

   * PRIMARY THREATS INCLUDE...
     SCATTERED LARGE HAIL LIKELY WITH ISOLATED VERY LARGE HAIL EVENTS
       TO 2 INCHES IN DIAMETER POSSIBLE
     SCATTERED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS TO 70 MPH LIKELY
     A TORNADO OR TWO POSSIBLE

   SUMMARY...THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP/INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON
   ALONG STATIONARY FRONT IN EASTERN WISCONSIN...AND ALONG AND AHEAD OF
   COLD FRONT NOW NEARING THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER IN FAR EASTERN IOWA.
   SOME OF THE STORMS COULD EVOLVE INTO CLUSTERS...WITH EMBEDDED
   SUPERCELLS AND BOWING STRUCTURES BECOMING CAPABLE OF LARGE
   HAIL...DAMAGING WIND...AND POSSIBLE A TORNADO OR TWO.

   THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 70
   STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 65 MILES NORTH OF
   MILWAUKEE WISCONSIN TO 30 MILES SOUTHWEST OF MARSEILLES ILLINOIS.
    FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH
   OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU3).

 

post-4544-0-44104900-1461612244_thumb.gi

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Fairly broad 1500j/kg+ cape showing up on SPC meso extending up to about the QC.  Little blob of 2000j/kg over northeast MO.  Still on the increase as well.  Mid-level lapse rates are exceeding what was forecast a few days ago, so the hail threat is considerably more than what I was thinking back then.  

 

Cu field continues to look increasingly impressive here.  Nice lean to them as well.  About go time.

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Fairly broad 1500j/kg+ cape showing up on SPC meso extending up to about the QC. Little blob of 2000j/kg over northeast MO. Still on the increase as well. Mid-level lapse rates are exceeding what was forecast a few days ago, so the hail threat is considerably more than what I was thinking back then.

Cu field continues to look increasingly impressive here. Nice lean to them as well. About go time.

When this puppy goes, shes gonna go.

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First warning

 

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
ILC007-111-252200-
/O.NEW.KLOT.SV.W.0010.160425T2114Z-160425T2200Z/

BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
414 PM CDT MON APR 25 2016

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN CHICAGO HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
CENTRAL BOONE COUNTY IN NORTH CENTRAL ILLINOIS...
NORTHERN MCHENRY COUNTY IN NORTHEASTERN ILLINOIS...

* UNTIL 500 PM CDT

* AT 414 PM CDT...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED NEAR TIMBERLANE...
OR NEAR BELVIDERE...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 40 MPH.

HAZARD...60 MPH WIND GUSTS AND QUARTER SIZE HAIL.

SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED.

IMPACT...HAIL DAMAGE TO VEHICLES IS EXPECTED. EXPECT WIND DAMAGE
TO ROOFS...SIDING...AND TREES.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
MCHENRY...BELVIDERE...WOODSTOCK...HARVARD...WONDER LAKE...JOHNSBURG...
POPLAR GROVE...CAPRON...HEBRON...BULL VALLEY...MCCULLOM LAKE...
TIMBERLANE...RINGWOOD AND GREENWOOD.

 

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