wisconsinwx Posted April 25, 2016 Share Posted April 25, 2016 I don't know why Geos is primarily noting the Euro to begin with. It's like the last model I would consult with microscale aspects like severe weather. Sure, it's worth a look, but it's certainly not near the top. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HillsdaleMIWeather Posted April 25, 2016 Share Posted April 25, 2016 I don't know why Geos is primarily noting the Euro to begin with. It's like the last model I would consult with microscale aspects like severe weather. Sure, it's worth a look, but it's certainly not near the top. Agreed the Short Range models and the GFS/NAM are what are the best to look at for situations like this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paulie21 Posted April 25, 2016 Share Posted April 25, 2016 00Z 12km NAM strengthened the little jet max over Iowa tomorrow evening by ~10kts. CAPE also increased coupled with a wide area of 40kts of bulk shear. Still trouble initiating much given a small amount of convergence that will be in place. 4km NAM actually spits something out near Galesburg that goes over Peoria where the winds at sfc aren't that terrible veered. There's still ~45° of turning since mid-level flow is out of the west. Bulk shear goes up to 50kts in NW IL at 01Z due to the LLJ kicking in.Crossovers aren't bad either, neither is the CAPE, though the best low level shear is displaced slightly to the east of the best instability. Storm morphology and amount of convergence will play the largest role tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted April 25, 2016 Share Posted April 25, 2016 Are those your own categories or something? No, that's what the maps show on eurowx maps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted April 25, 2016 Share Posted April 25, 2016 I don't know why Geos is primarily noting the Euro to begin with. It's like the last model I would consult with microscale aspects like severe weather. Sure, it's worth a look, but it's certainly not near the top. Because not everyone has access to it. So I figure I'd put it out there. The 0z run had a nice squall line on it, 12z not so much. Anywho, 4km NAM fired up discrete cells at 0z tomorrow. Then forms into a line later. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted April 25, 2016 Share Posted April 25, 2016 Agreed the Short Range models and the GFS/NAM are what are the best to look at for situations like this.Usung the GFS is no different than using the ECMWF Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IllinoisWedges Posted April 25, 2016 Share Posted April 25, 2016 How much stock do people put into the HRRRX? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted April 25, 2016 Share Posted April 25, 2016 0z SPC WRF... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RCNYILWX Posted April 25, 2016 Share Posted April 25, 2016 How much stock do people put into the HRRRX?Have seen it do a decent job locally vs. the op HRRR it's replacing but it's probably outside reliable range being a hot start hi-res model. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RCNYILWX Posted April 25, 2016 Share Posted April 25, 2016 I think we'll get a Slight Risk at some point for today/Monday if not with the initial day 1 outlook for most of the current Marginal area. I'd personally go with one with the initial d1. Seems like there's enough consensus in convective initiation on southern periphery of midlevel wave moving from eastern IA to IL/WI state line area during late afternoon. The 00z GFS, 03z RAP, 00z RGEM and 00z WRF-ARW & NMM are all in decent agreement in this regard. Assuming initiation around 21z near the MS River in eastern IA/NW IL, storms will be running into an environment with 40 kt of west to west-northwest shear vectors and good veering from h85 to h5. 00z GFS actually bumped up instability from earlier runs to 1500+ j/kg over eastern IA and northern IL so the ~2000 j/kg being shown on the NAM may not be too far fetched considering decent h7-h5 lapse rates around 7C/km or slightly higher. If winds can verify closer to SSW than SW, would also mean decent low level veering and a better isolated tor threat, but overall large hail appears to be primary threat and wind as well given steep low level lapse rates. Tor threat even with more veered sfc winds is non zero with lcl's probably manageable given low 60s dewpoints and supercell structures favored at least earlier on. We'll see what SPC goes with shortly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IllinoisWedges Posted April 25, 2016 Share Posted April 25, 2016 SLGT risk issued by the SPC. Also, SPC noting the real possibility of a significant outbreak on Tuesday. Large MDT area and they even considered a HIGH risk, although some factors made the hold back. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted April 25, 2016 Share Posted April 25, 2016 NMM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted April 25, 2016 Share Posted April 25, 2016 Haven't been all that excited about tor potential all along, but the relative isolated nature of the storms tomorrow along that line should help. Without any synoptic, or remnant boundaries to help the low-levels, we'll need a storm to become dominant and remain isolated for quite awhile to give it the best chance to produce. From a chasing standpoint that makes it difficult, as you could pick anywhere from southern WI down to west-central IL for that to happen. I'll probably shoot east and hang out somewhere between Rochelle and Princeton, and hope to pick the best of what develops. Chances of scoring a tor tomorrow are pretty low, but I'll just be happy to be out again, and in the presence of powerful convection. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IllinoisWedges Posted April 25, 2016 Share Posted April 25, 2016 Haven't been all that excited about tor potential all along, but the relative isolated nature of the storms tomorrow along that line should help. Without any synoptic, or remnant boundaries to help the low-levels, we'll need a storm to become dominant and remain isolated for quite awhile to give it the best chance to produce. From a chasing standpoint that makes it difficult, as you could pick anywhere from southern WI down to west-central IL for that to happen. I'll probably shoot east and hang out somewhere between Rochelle and Princeton, and hope to pick the best of what develops. Chances of scoring a tor tomorrow are pretty low, but I'll just be happy to be out again, and in the presence of powerful convection. Bit OT, but.. do you have any desire to chase Tuesday? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted April 25, 2016 Share Posted April 25, 2016 Bit OT, but.. do you have any desire to chase Tuesday? I have tremendous desire to lol, but we have our 2-year audit/re-accreditation at work Tuesday through Thursday. Hoping for a chase after work on Wednesday if it's close enough. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IllinoisWedges Posted April 25, 2016 Share Posted April 25, 2016 I have tremendous desire to lol, but we have our 2-year audit/re-accreditation at work Tuesday through Thursday. Hoping for a chase after work on Wednesday if it's close enough. I'm sure they'd understand if you said you could see volleyball sized hail. Back OT. Sorry, had to ask! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HillsdaleMIWeather Posted April 25, 2016 Share Posted April 25, 2016 Both the 06Z NAM and the short range models have had an uptick in instability this morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted April 25, 2016 Share Posted April 25, 2016 probably the most aggressive i've seen modeling with convection into the city so far this year, doesn't look too wild but certainly the best chance of strong storms in the city to date in 2016 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted April 25, 2016 Share Posted April 25, 2016 Looking like initiation will occur pretty much right overhead here, and points northeast by around 21-22z. Everything seems to be on track with regards to the setup. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paulie21 Posted April 25, 2016 Share Posted April 25, 2016 FWIW here's the WRF-NSSL. NAM continues to show that strengthened mid level jet from 00Z runs last night. These would form on the nose of the jet in a good environment despite veered flow near the surface. There's still turning at low levels and conducive amount of 0-1km helicity if storm mode doesn't go messy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted April 25, 2016 Share Posted April 25, 2016 A few 60+ dew readings now showing up in far southeast IA, as well as northeast MO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted April 25, 2016 Share Posted April 25, 2016 Slight risk expanded eastward into IN/MI. Hatched hail area added as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HillsdaleMIWeather Posted April 25, 2016 Share Posted April 25, 2016 Slight risk expanded eastward into IN/MI. Hatched hail area added as well. Not really surprised, could be an interesting night tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted April 25, 2016 Share Posted April 25, 2016 FWIW here's the WRF-NSSL. NAM continues to show that strengthened mid level jet from 00Z runs last night. These would form on the nose of the jet in a good environment despite veered flow near the surface. There's still turning at low levels and conducive amount of 0-1km helicity if storm mode doesn't go messy. starting to see a good signal that i'm going to split the uprights again Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted April 25, 2016 Share Posted April 25, 2016 As of Saturday I became an official trained storm spotter. Not sure if that will turn out to be a good or bad omen for storms though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SchaumburgStormer Posted April 25, 2016 Share Posted April 25, 2016 77/56 in mby at the moment. Would like for those dews to take off Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted April 25, 2016 Share Posted April 25, 2016 77/56 in mby at the moment. Would like for those dews to take off Ditto here. Warmest day of the year so far. Storms start to fire in an hour or so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted April 25, 2016 Share Posted April 25, 2016 HRW-NMM looking pretty sweet later on. Develops a ribbon of 2000j/kg cape on the southern end of the broken line of convection. 23z 01z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted April 25, 2016 Share Posted April 25, 2016 i guess i wouldn't mind splitting the gap if it means a photogenic sup just offshore Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted April 25, 2016 Share Posted April 25, 2016 MD out, watch incoming Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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