Stebo Posted April 23, 2016 Share Posted April 23, 2016 500mb trough still lags a bit before ejecting. If this speeds up, the dryline will also be a good play NAM is notorious for being the slowest model at this junction, I would expect it to speed up a touch as we get closer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brettjrob Posted April 23, 2016 Share Posted April 23, 2016 Yeah, we really need either the wave to speed up (even by just 2-3 h) or the dryline to pull back further west, relative to something like the 12z NAM solution. I wouldn't take its lack of CI before 00z too literally, given how poorly the BMJ scheme has performed in dryline setups similar to this. What does concern me a bit that we might actually have problems getting multiple storms by late afternoon is the 00z ECMWF also being stingy (it had one QPF swath in S KS that starts out quite early, well before 21z, and then not much else until after 00z). At 84 h lead time, though, it could be much worse than worrying about minor timing details like this. Virtually every other facet of the setup is locked and loaded. EDIT: 23/12z GFS is definitely faster. Simply textbook... wow. One of the closest matches to the 26 April 1991 synoptic pattern I can remember seeing on the models outside fantasyland. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted April 23, 2016 Share Posted April 23, 2016 Yeah, we really need either the wave to speed up (even by just 2-3 h) or the dryline to pull back further west, relative to something like the 12z NAM solution. I wouldn't take its lack of CI before 00z too literally, given how poorly the BMJ scheme has performed in dryline setups similar to this. What does concern me a bit that we might actually have problems getting multiple storms by late afternoon is the 00z ECMWF also being stingy (it had one QPF swath in S KS that starts out quite early, well before 21z, and then not much else until after 00z). At 84 h lead time, though, it could be much worse than worrying about minor timing details like this. Virtually every other facet of the setup is locked and loaded. EDIT: 23/12z GFS is definitely faster. Simply textbook... wow. One of the closest matches to the 26 April 1991 synoptic pattern I can remember seeing on the models outside fantasyland. The 12z GFS has the 500mb wind max moving more quickly into the warm sector. The effective shear in the area of interest (north OK forecast sounding) increased from 33kt to 45kt from the 00z to 12z GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OUGrad05 Posted April 23, 2016 Share Posted April 23, 2016 The placement of the system is significantly different on the Euro. The Euro is eerily similar to May 3rd while the GFS has it 200+ miles further north. Chinook I would guess the GFS will become slightly faster with some of those features over the next 48 hours just based on what I've seen in the past. Any thoughts as it relates to the current depiction of timing differences from the GFS? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KSWx Posted April 23, 2016 Share Posted April 23, 2016 12Z GFS soundings still showing some very ominous analogs; KS/OK border at 00z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OUGrad05 Posted April 23, 2016 Share Posted April 23, 2016 12Z GFS soundings still showing some very ominous analogs; KS/OK border at 00z. I think 24hrs from now when things are fully sampled we'll have a pretty good idea of how this will shake out. The differences between the NAM/GFS/Euro is pretty significant at this point and the displaced upper air features are still concerning me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Radtechwxman Posted April 23, 2016 Share Posted April 23, 2016 I mean regardless there will be a robust severe threat Tues but the degree and intensity of the tornado threat is def contingent on the placement, strength, and timing of the upper jet core. I am learning towards a late chase kind of day but if we can see the system speed up a bit that will def shift things towards late afternoon instead of evening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jojo762 Posted April 23, 2016 Share Posted April 23, 2016 "OVERALL CONSENSUS SUGGESTS HIGHER-END SEVERE WEATHER OUTBREAK IS POSSIBLE ACROSS KS/OK TUESDAY AFTERNOON- EVENING...INCLUDING THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG-VIOLENT TORNADOES. " from ICT AFD this afternoon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ClicheVortex2014 Posted April 23, 2016 Share Posted April 23, 2016 Daaaaaamn! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jojo762 Posted April 23, 2016 Share Posted April 23, 2016 18Z nam is much much better looking with the timing. Closer to the 12Z GFS. Awesome. A bit too Far East with the DL though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted April 23, 2016 Author Share Posted April 23, 2016 Would be a near/east of I-35 threat on the NAM. Nice sharp DL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jojo762 Posted April 23, 2016 Share Posted April 23, 2016 Starting to wonder about the possibility of a D3 MDT for somewhere in KS/OK. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ClicheVortex2014 Posted April 23, 2016 Share Posted April 23, 2016 Starting to wonder about the possibility of a D3 MDT for somewhere in KS/OK. Based on SPC's wording in the day 4-8 outlooks, I think that's a real possibility. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherextreme Posted April 23, 2016 Share Posted April 23, 2016 Based on SPC's wording in the day 4-8 outlooks, I think that's a real possibility. Think maybe an enhanced would go up first or straight to mod? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted April 23, 2016 Share Posted April 23, 2016 Based on SPC's wording in the day 4-8 outlooks, I think that's a real possibility. I don't think it will be a day 3 MDT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OUGrad05 Posted April 23, 2016 Share Posted April 23, 2016 Starting to wonder about the possibility of a D3 MDT for somewhere in KS/OK. Not sure if they'll have enough data at midnight to make that call but certainly seems like a real possibility. Issues with some divergence between surface and upper air features will probably prevent it... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jojo762 Posted April 23, 2016 Share Posted April 23, 2016 Not sure if they'll have enough data at midnight to make that call but certainly seems like a real possibility. Issues with some divergence between surface and upper air features will probably prevent it... well the D3 is issued at 0730Z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OUGrad05 Posted April 23, 2016 Share Posted April 23, 2016 well the D3 is issued at 0730Z. Ok so 2:30am...not sure they'll have the data from the fully sampled system at that point...maybe they will but I would suspect if things don't come into a little closer alignment we'll have an enhanced risk. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
David Reimer Posted April 23, 2016 Share Posted April 23, 2016 Chasing on the KS/OK border tomorrow most likely but may end up further southwest depending on how things evolve. Keeping a small eye on Monday while obviously chasing on Tuesday. Time will tell if the dryline or triple point end up being the play. Unless it looks like a relatively minor event in Central Oklahoma I'll probably chase around here. Last time I went north my apartment almost got taken out by a multi-vortex. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jojo762 Posted April 23, 2016 Share Posted April 23, 2016 18Z GFS shows quite a decent amount of QPF at and after 00Z across KS and NC OK, not sure what to make of that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rolltide_130 Posted April 23, 2016 Share Posted April 23, 2016 Starting to wonder about the possibility of a D3 MDT for somewhere in KS/OK. Doubtful. I think it'll go D3 Enhanced -> D2 Moderate to probably an upper-end moderate until at least 1630z on D1 if trends continue the way they have been. SPC seems generally more hesitant to pull the trigger on outlooks than they have been in the past. I'd say the addition of the Enhanced category as well as the fact that they pulled the trigger on a couple of events last May that they wound up having to back off of after junk convection and other limiting factors put a lid on those events may be leading to that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
David Reimer Posted April 23, 2016 Share Posted April 23, 2016 18Z GFS shows quite a decent amount of QPF at and after 00Z across KS and NC OK, not sure what to make of that. For Sunday or Tuesday? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jojo762 Posted April 23, 2016 Share Posted April 23, 2016 For Sunday or Tuesday? Tuesday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brettjrob Posted April 23, 2016 Share Posted April 23, 2016 If I had to guess, and also what I would do if it were my call, as things stand: D3 ENH, likely leading into a D2 MDT. This isn't a slam-dunk yet. The 12z ECMWF and 18z NAM show a very anemic LLJ that, if it verified verbatim, would put a pretty big damper on all the outbreak talk. The timing of the shortwave(s) ejecting needs to be sorted out, and it's clear that an unfavorable timing capable of mitigating the threat considerably is still within the envelope of solutions, even if it isn't the most likely solution. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherextreme Posted April 23, 2016 Share Posted April 23, 2016 If I had to guess, and also what I would do if it were my call, as things stand: D3 ENH, likely leading into a D2 MDT. This isn't a slam-dunk yet. The 12z ECMWF and 18z NAM show a very anemic LLJ that, if it verified verbatim, would put a pretty big damper on all the outbreak talk. The timing of the shortwave(s) ejecting needs to be sorted out, and it's clear that an unfavorable timing capable of mitigating the threat considerably is still within the envelope of solutions, even if it isn't the most likely solution. Forbes must of saw something today. Tues/Wed went from "tornado outbreak," (From his previous forecast) to more of a "Limited tornado outbreak." (With his current forecast) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MattPetrulli Posted April 23, 2016 Share Posted April 23, 2016 Forbes must of saw something today. Tues/Wed went from "tornado outbreak," (From his previous forecast) to more of a "Limited tornado outbreak." (With his current forecast) Doesn't mean anything regarding strength, probably just means regional. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted April 23, 2016 Share Posted April 23, 2016 Not really enthused regarding how occluded the trough is by 00z Wed on most of the recent guidance, would imply lesser wind fields and likely issues with the vertical wind profile. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chase_stormz Posted April 23, 2016 Share Posted April 23, 2016 What are some other systems that looked similar and verified with several tornadoes? I'm honestly drawing a blank right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brettjrob Posted April 23, 2016 Share Posted April 23, 2016 Not really enthused regarding how occluded the trough is by 00z Wed on most of the recent guidance, would imply lesser wind fields and likely issues with the vertical wind profile. My thoughts exactly. There's still plenty of time to sort these details out, but from a large-scale perspective, this issue is essentially a manifestation of the nagging eastern troughing (and associated short wavelengths). There's probably a reason why that doesn't show up on many, if any, of the top-tier, synoptically-evident Plains outbreaks like Andover. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OUGrad05 Posted April 24, 2016 Share Posted April 24, 2016 Wind profiles in the 00Z NAM are a bit tamer than the 18Z which was tamer than the 12Z...LI's improve along with a few other parameters, 700mb looks pretty solid over the instability but the 500s are off and coming in with a bit too much southerly component... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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