April 24-30th Severe Potential

[Indystorm]

Six hours to go yet on the PDS tor watch.  As the LLJ ramps up and shear and helicity increase concern is still warranted.

[Stebo]

Six hours to go yet on the PDS tor watch.  As the LLJ ramps up and shear and helicity increase concern is still warranted.

Considering things remain uncapped into the dark, this is my concern too.

[jojo762]

Today is not over yet, for sure, given that we still have an hour or two before low-level winds improve more significantly... HP Supercell/cluster headed toward OKC is interesting. Several semi-discrete/discrete storms that have supercellular characteristics. Plenty of messy clusters as well. Pretty complex near-term forecast.

 

Interestingly, there are a few storms--elevated and small right now-- that are developing in the open warm sector in front of all the main dryline storms... If any of these could become rooted to the boundary-layer/become surface based (which isn't super likely, but still a possiblity), they could pose an even higher threat than the DL storms given that the LLJ is about to kick in, and that they would likely not experience any deleterious interactions for a few hours. 

 

But just looking ahead, friday is looking potentially interesting across S/SW/C OK. Particularly on the NAM... GFS shows a more complicated situation with the possibility of lingering morning convection and possibly an MCS downstream that would inhibit better LLVL flow and better moisture quality. Wide range of possibilities, if the NAM were correct, a high-end tornado threat could exist, but if the GFS were to verify, a much lesser tornado threat would exist. At least from the way I view it... Opinions?  

[Chicago Storm]

Things quickly going linear in many areas.

 

Any discrete supercell tornado threat obviously didn't work out. We'll see how any QLCS tornado threat evolves.

[wildwestpb]

Things quickly going linear in many areas.

 

Any discrete supercell tornado threat obviously didn't work out. We'll see how any QLCS tornado threat evolves.

Looking at the mesonet radar out of Fredrick it shows the line from western OK all the way down into TX going linear like you said.

http://www.mesonet.org/index.php/weather/radar/KFDR

[ClicheVortex2014]

Things quickly going linear in many areas.

 

Any discrete supercell tornado threat obviously didn't work out. We'll see how any QLCS tornado threat evolves.

There are some discrete cells ahead of the line trying to get it together - west of Dallas and NE of Wichita Falls. They're in a good environment if they can get going.

[Chicago Storm]

Couplet with the LEWP north of Seiling, OK...

[Jonbo]

Not sure where the News9 chopper is currently but some nice cloud movement fairly close to them.

 

edit: I think I caught them mentioning near Apache.

[boo radley]

Wow it went linear in a hurry. Starting to look like a high wind threat with a few short spin ups.

[wildwestpb]

Not sure where the News9 chopper is currently but some nice cloud movement fairly close to them.

He's in-between Anadarko and Apache, OK, possibly around Broxton, looking westward.

[nwohweather]

IMO it is inexcusable and downright maddening that the SPC went forward with these forecasts. We have all talked on here for days about the problems and sure enough it all came to fruition as we had nothing but messy storm modes throughout the afternoon and now have everything going linear. To issue such dire forecasts with talk of even a high risk and a PDS Tornado Watch was absolutely ridiculous

[hlcater]

IMO it is inexcusable and downright maddening that the SPC went forward with these forecasts. We have all talked on here for days about the problems and sure enough it all came to fruition as we had nothing but messy storm modes throughout the afternoon and now have everything going linear. To issue such dire forecasts with talk of even a high risk and a PDS Tornado Watch was absolutely ridiculous

Amen.

[the ghost of leroy]

Seems like after the line comes through the mod risk will verify...if the only sin is a PDS watch then what's the big deal?  

[OUGrad05]

IMO it is inexcusable and downright maddening that the SPC went forward with these forecasts. We have all talked on here for days about the problems and sure enough it all came to fruition as we had nothing but messy storm modes throughout the afternoon and now have everything going linear. To issue such dire forecasts with talk of even a high risk and a PDS Tornado Watch was absolutely ridiculous

Sorry but this post is maddening. SPC was pretty well planted on their outlook and 10% probs are enhanced risk for tor not MDT. The only real error they made was a PDS watch. Don't blame spc for TV channels hyping it.

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[boo radley]

Yea hindsight is 20/20. Results would've been far worse had they underplayed it and verified far worse.

[jojo762]

Seems like after the line comes through the mod risk will verify...if the only sin is a PDS watch then what's the big deal?  

Yeah, the Moderate risk for large/very large hail will verify... But the 10% tornado w/ sig hatch likely will not. Choice of PDS is interesting, but seems warranted given the potential that it had, despite the caveats. Some of the more recent hi-res models when they issued the PDS watch showed the possibility of storms remaining more discrete and less messy into the evening. Is not exactly their fault. Rare to see a PDS watch issued based off of conditional-potential though.

[hlcater]

Sorry but this post is maddening. SPC was pretty well planted on their outlook and 10% probs are enhanced risk for tor not MDT. The only real error they made was a PDS watch. Don't blame spc for TV channels hyping it.

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That's my entire reason for agreeing. Given some of the parameters, I don't think a PDS watch was warranted. When the storms did develop they were supercellular for generally less than an hour despite an exception or two near the OK/KS border. The rest of the storms congealed too quickly. While they did well on the outlook regarding lower probability of tornadoes due shear problems the idea of a high probability PDS tornado watch made little sense. That said, the event is not 100% done and there still is a chance for the LLJ to improve parameters a bit, albeit a small chance. 

 

Edit: I guess I should add that the PDS watch likely fueled hype from news stations and may have even scared the public when there was little reason to be scared given the storm modes that were most likely to occur. Most of this post is my opinion on the matter and some may or may not agree with it.

[ClicheVortex2014]

This is why I'm waiting until 2017 to go chasing.

This is true. La Nina can't come soon enough.

[nwohweather]

Sorry but this post is maddening. SPC was pretty well planted on their outlook and 10% probs are enhanced risk for tor not MDT. The only real error they made was a PDS watch. Don't blame spc for TV channels hyping it.

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And the SPC didn't? As I stated in the OP they talked about long track tornadoes, kept up and actually expanded the Mod risk, and finally issued a PDS Watch which we all know means a serious outbreak is about to happen. I was never too concerned because I've forecasted for years but for the average joe who knows little and thinks the tornado is where the brightest red on the radar is, when TV guys repeat these things it scares the heck out of people

[jojo762]

That's my entire reason for agreeing. Given some of the parameters, I don't think a PDS watch was warranted. When the storms did develop they were supercellular for generally less than an hour despite an exception or two near the OK/KS border. The rest of the storms congealed too quickly. While they did well on the outlook regarding lower probability of tornadoes due shear problems the idea of a high probability PDS tornado watch made little sense. That said, the event is not 100% done and there still is a chance for the LLJ to improve parameters a bit, albeit a small chance. 

 

Edit: I guess I should add that the PDS watch likely fueled hype from news stations and may have even scared the public when there was little reason to be scared given the storm modes that were most likely to occur. Most of this post is my opinion on the matter and some may or may not agree with it.

Something else...  this is perhaps the best state-- if there really is a "best" state-- for a PDS/hype-bust. Because Oklahoma residents, specifically in C OK, often do not under-estimate/disregard threats-- whether they know a lick or not about weather. Just an opinion 

[OhioWX]

IMO it is inexcusable and downright maddening that the SPC went forward with these forecasts. We have all talked on here for days about the problems and sure enough it all came to fruition as we had nothing but messy storm modes throughout the afternoon and now have everything going linear. To issue such dire forecasts with talk of even a high risk and a PDS Tornado Watch was absolutely ridiculous.

Today didn't turn out exactly how some forecasters expected. This has happened many times before and it will surely happen again.

 

I think you're turning this into a bigger deal than it should be.

[hlcater]

I guess I should also say that it wasn't necessarily inexcusable, but given the parameters, it probably wasn't the best move. 

[MattPetrulli]

I can see why SPC issued the PDS, probably due to the 18z sounding at OUN which likely created larger uncertainties regarding storm mode. 

[MUWX]

IMO it is inexcusable and downright maddening that the SPC went forward with these forecasts. We have all talked on here for days about the problems and sure enough it all came to fruition as we had nothing but messy storm modes throughout the afternoon and now have everything going linear. To issue such dire forecasts with talk of even a high risk and a PDS Tornado Watch was absolutely ridiculous

You can be mad about the PDS watch, but the moderate risk will verify. Details on models were sketchy all the way up until the event, so they had to continue to mention that it could get really bad and a high risk could be necessary. The SPC isn't really for general public use, it's just not. It's complicated and technical. TV mets should know how to convey this, without inducing panic and hype. As others have stated, the spc forecast was not bad, and will verify. However, the PDS watch was not a good idea.

[Chicago Storm]

0z soundings from OUN and FWD...

[boo radley]

Is the tornado threat over? I mean outside of a few brief spin ups.

[Thundersnow12]

IMO it is inexcusable and downright maddening that the SPC went forward with these forecasts. We have all talked on here for days about the problems and sure enough it all came to fruition as we had nothing but messy storm modes throughout the afternoon and now have everything going linear. To issue such dire forecasts with talk of even a high risk and a PDS Tornado Watch was absolutely ridiculous

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[ClicheVortex2014]

Today didn't turn out exactly how some forecasters expected. This has happened many times before and it will surely happen again.

 

I think you're turning this into a bigger deal than it should be.

Agreed. Busts happen... it's a part of forecasting. SPC puts themselves out there every day... and the one event that there was a tornado bust on, people like him are on them as if it's a regular occurrence. Luckily NWS/SPC have developed thick skin and they don't let the criticism cause them to be excessively conservative in the future because that's when busts are really dangerous.

[MattPetrulli]

In other news, Friday looks like another complicated forecast with possible morning convection. 

[boo radley]

Looks like still a few storms out ahead of the line, not sure they amount to any thing though.