Stebo Posted April 21, 2016 Share Posted April 21, 2016 These wavelengths are just too short... this is not how you get major outbreaks in April. Tuesday is going to produce tornadoes somewhere, but if it's MO/AR, the chaser jubilation over the past 24 h will prove highly unwarranted. After that, on the 12z ECMWF, I'm seeing multiple shortwaves right on each others' heels. On Thursday, sub-freezing air at 850 mb is wrapping down into KS and NW OK as the next wave begins to progress through the Rockies. And then a similar (albeit less ugly) situation by Sat/Sun. In this scenario, TX/LA/AR would probably be the focus for anything noteworthy after Tuesday, at least in this subforum. The Euro has been ultra aggressive with cold air coming down behind these systems only to be wrong. Your concerns needs to be tempered because the model you are using isn't what it was. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rolltide_130 Posted April 21, 2016 Share Posted April 21, 2016 It is one run of an inconsistent model, lets not all jump off a bridge and they are still chaseable events regardless to the changes. Still a significant, potentially high-end threat regardless. Not sure why everyone's losing their marbles other than the fact that an eastward shift has moved it out of their BY a bit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted April 21, 2016 Share Posted April 21, 2016 The 00z EPS did not support the 12z Euro's timing on Tuesday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted April 21, 2016 Author Share Posted April 21, 2016 It is one run of an inconsistent model, lets not all jump off a bridge and they are still chaseable events regardless to the changes.The ECMWF has been catching onto things sooner than the GFS recently. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted April 21, 2016 Share Posted April 21, 2016 The ECMWF has been catching onto things sooner than the GFS recently. Not from what I have seen. The GFS handled the current pattern pretty well as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted April 21, 2016 Share Posted April 21, 2016 Still a significant, potentially high-end threat regardless. Not sure why everyone's losing their marbles other than the fact that an eastward shift has moved it out of their BY a bit. Just some glass half empty posts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MattPetrulli Posted April 21, 2016 Share Posted April 21, 2016 This setup on Tuesday really reminds me of May 10, 2010. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ClicheVortex2014 Posted April 21, 2016 Share Posted April 21, 2016 1 model run and people are jumping out the window. I'd understand it if it was 3-4 consecutive 12z/00z suites, but sheesh. It's not even like it's a huge change. We went from ~11 EHI to 7 EHI. It doesn't really matter that much... they both favor strong tornadoes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted April 21, 2016 Share Posted April 21, 2016 Alright guys, I think we've beaten this into the ground. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jojo762 Posted April 21, 2016 Share Posted April 21, 2016 This setup on Tuesday really reminds me of May 10, 2010. I've been thinking this for several days. Went back and looked on the SPC severe events page yesterday for 5/10/10, and checked the environment and it should be relatively similar too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted April 21, 2016 Share Posted April 21, 2016 I've been thinking this for several days. Went back and looked on the SPC severe events page for that, and checked the environment and it should be relatively similar too. Eh, I don't think the shear is going to be as wickedly insane as it was that day (70-80 kt effective shear/600-800 m2/s2 ESRH), but the warm sector should have greater longitudinal extent. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Radtechwxman Posted April 21, 2016 Share Posted April 21, 2016 Honestly a faster solution doesn't make sense. With that ridging building ahead of the system, a slower ejection would be more plausible IMO. Maybe I'm wish casting ever so slightly but the GFS has been pretty consistent and tends to perform better with warm season events whereas euro seems to shine in the cold season. Like you guys are saying, it is one run. No trend yet. Until sampling occurs I'm sure we will see things wobble. The threat will still be significant just in a less ideal location for chasers. Many peoples lives will likely still be in danger. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bdgwx Posted April 21, 2016 Share Posted April 21, 2016 The 12Z Euro still looks pretty mean for Tuesday especially around the Kansas City area if taken verbatim. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brettjrob Posted April 21, 2016 Share Posted April 21, 2016 Just to be clear: some of you should keep in mind that Chicago Storm, myself, and others here are coming from a chasing-centric perspective. In that context, the difference between an outbreak just west of Wichita vs. an outbreak in MO/AR is practically the difference between having or not having the outbreak in the first place. Until you've tried storm chasing in the Ozarks or Ouachitas, it probably sounds melodramatic, but it's true . To reiterate: I think tornadoes are likely Tuesday somewhere in the central US. I'm not convinced of an outbreak-type scenario just yet, owing to the short wavelength and so much cold air over eastern North America, and I'm definitely not convinced it will be a great chasing scenario. That's all I'm saying. For the post-Tuesday period, I'm very concerned about the warm sector staying confined to TX, for the most part. It may be true that the ECMWF has been a bit too aggressive with cold air lately (I haven't been following too closely), but the overall synoptic pattern it depicts on this run is just not that great for significant severe events at this time of year, in my opinion. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted April 21, 2016 Share Posted April 21, 2016 The 12Z Euro still looks pretty mean for Tuesday espeically around the Kansas City area. Was thinking that the stronger LLJ earlier on could mean a higher tornado threat further west towards I-35 by 4 PM, then shifting east from there (taken verbatim obviously). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jojo762 Posted April 21, 2016 Share Posted April 21, 2016 Eh, I don't think the shear is going to be as wickedly insane as it was that day (70-80 kt effective shear/600-800 m2/s2 ESRH), but the warm sector should have greater longitudinal extent. well shear won't be quite that high, yes, since the trough probably won't be completely over the WS, probably closer to 35-60kts depending on where you are at and ESRH of 500+. I think it still has plenty of potential to be a day like that.EDIT: Just reading 70-80 knots of shear with 600+ ESRH is mind boggling. Insane. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
capbreak Posted April 21, 2016 Share Posted April 21, 2016 This setup on Tuesday really reminds me of May 10, 2010. The Wakita tornado was trying to steamroll people at 60 mph - like andyhb said, the shear isn't on that level. The surface moisture and instability patterns look similar from a quick glance, though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted April 21, 2016 Author Share Posted April 21, 2016 1 model run and people are jumping out the window. I'd understand it if it was 3-4 consecutive 12z/00z suites, but sheesh. It's not even like it's a huge change. We went from ~11 EHI to 7 EHI. It doesn't really matter that much... they both favor strong tornadoes. It's more than just EHI you know. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bdgwx Posted April 21, 2016 Share Posted April 21, 2016 Was thinking that the stronger LLJ earlier on could mean a higher tornado threat further west towards I-35 by 4 PM, then shifting east from there (taken verbatim obviously). I had my eye closer to KC because the 0-1km shear was higher towards that direction (again taking it verbatim). But yeah, Tuesday still looks like it has significant outbreak potential for somewhere in the plains. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted April 21, 2016 Share Posted April 21, 2016 I had my eye closer to KC because the 0-1km shear was higher towards that direction (again taking it verbatim). But yeah, Tuesday still looks like it has significant outbreak potential for somewhere in the plains. Also noticed the triple point along the KS/NE border had some strong 0-1 km shear at 18z, although column wind profile issues may be more prevalent that far north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted April 21, 2016 Share Posted April 21, 2016 It's more than just EHI you know. probably doesn't know. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jojo762 Posted April 21, 2016 Share Posted April 21, 2016 probably doesn't know. it is more than EHI sure, but it's a good measure for the potential of the environment. Doesn't encompass all factors, but it's a nice measuring stick in my mind. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quincy Posted April 21, 2016 Share Posted April 21, 2016 Echoing Brett's concerns, although a relatively active string of days seems very possible, don't be surprised if the majority of the "best" activity remains confined to TX/SE OK/AR/LA and vicinity. Sunday is a bit of a wildcard and could be a sleeper chase day in KS(possibly OK and/or E NE), but that's not set in stone. Tuesday seems most likely to be a roughly I-40 to I-70 event, although timing and aerial extent are question marks. If the trough were to speed up, a setup in E OK/AR/MO is much different than a "classic" event over the heart of the Plains, in terms of visibility and chasing. Beyond Tuesday, the warm sector may very well get stuck down in Texas to the lower Mississippi Valley/Gulf Coast region for much of the week into next weekend. Although most of the analogs show increased activity (either an outbreak or string of bigger days), it should be noted that a number of those analogs targeted the Mid-South/TN Valley/Southeast. The CFS may not have detailed skill in the medium range, but I like looking at it for a rough idea of how the dice may roll. Although it's shown, at times, a few higher-end setups, it's also shown some junk for next week too. Run to run consistency is not great enough to scream a historic event/week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted April 21, 2016 Share Posted April 21, 2016 Honestly a faster solution doesn't make sense. With that ridging building ahead of the system, a slower ejection would be more plausible IMO. Maybe I'm wish casting ever so slightly but the GFS has been pretty consistent and tends to perform better with warm season events whereas euro seems to shine in the cold season. Like you guys are saying, it is one run. No trend yet. Until sampling occurs I'm sure we will see things wobble. The threat will still be significant just in a less ideal location for chasers. Many peoples lives will likely still be in danger. That is a valid point, the system isn't going to run head strong into the ridge at a rapid rate. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
David Reimer Posted April 21, 2016 Share Posted April 21, 2016 I think folks are forgetting the series of potential events are still 3-7 days away. Things are going to change and I sort of wish Broyles hadn't gone gung-ho with the 'outbreak' word this morning. I've already been asked once if the severe weather threat on Tuesday will be like 4/27/11 in the SE US. Lots of hype coming out and that's problematic for folks in my coverage area (Texas) who are skittish after the 12/26 tornado event. Lets not get too hung up on every model run just yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quincy Posted April 21, 2016 Share Posted April 21, 2016 FWIW, although the 12z EPS is a tick east (run-to-run) with Tuesday's trough, it's still a bit west of the 12z OP. Details can and WILL change with setups so far out. At least we have some threats to track after a relatively dull first three weeks of April. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted April 21, 2016 Share Posted April 21, 2016 I think folks are forgetting the series of potential events are still 3-7 days away. Things are going to change and I sort of wish Broyles hadn't gone gung-ho with the 'outbreak' word this morning. I've already been asked once if the severe weather threat on Tuesday will be like 4/27/11 in the SE US. Lots of hype coming out and that's problematic for folks in my coverage area (Texas) who are skittish after the 12/26 tornado event. Lets not get too hung up on every model run just yet.Unfortunately this is going to happen with every event going forward. Not only because those events are fresh in our minds but social media blows everything up and compared to years past there is so much information out there now that the general public gets to see stuff that leads to fear and worry. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chase_stormz Posted April 21, 2016 Share Posted April 21, 2016 Quick side note, does anyone know if SPC has ever issued a "Day 8" risk before this week? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ClicheVortex2014 Posted April 21, 2016 Share Posted April 21, 2016 It's more than just EHI you know. probably doesn't know. I never said there wasn't Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ClicheVortex2014 Posted April 21, 2016 Share Posted April 21, 2016 OUN A more vigorous storm system will approach the area Tuesday andTuesday night. By that time, several days of southerly winds willhave trnasported ample low level moisture north into our area.Severe thunderstorms are likely to erupt along a dryline to ourwest and move east into at least northeast Oklahoma by Tuesdayevening. These storms will carry a high severe weather potential,with all modes of severe weather possible including significanttornadoes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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