ClicheVortex2014 Posted April 25, 2016 Share Posted April 25, 2016 I know this is such "how much for my backyard" question but I'm really not experienced with midwest weather. I'm chaperoning a group of students in St. Louis starting on Tuesday afternoon through Sunday morning. What is the likelihood that we will see large hail? very strong winds? power outages? I'm in rural New Hampshire and power outages are pretty common. People are prepared with generators, chains saws to cut down trees, etc. This will be a "does the hotel have power?" and "how do I plan to get the kids back to the venue?" series of questions, so completely different from what I'm used to doing. Thank you in advance! Looks like STL is in the threat zone for Wednesday... however leftover rain/clouds from Tuesdays event could plague STL, decreasing the severe threat. Go about things as normal but keep in mind that there could be severe weather on Wednesday. Keep an eye to the sky (especially to the west and south) and have a plan of what to do in case a storm rolls in. This is just something you do anyway in the spring in the Midwest. There may also be another severe event later in the week as the pattern basically reloads... but that's way down the road. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted April 25, 2016 Share Posted April 25, 2016 I know this is such "how much for my backyard" question but I'm really not experienced with midwest weather. I'm chaperoning a group of students in St. Louis starting on Tuesday afternoon through Sunday morning. What is the likelihood that we will see large hail? very strong winds? power outages? I'm in rural New Hampshire and power outages are pretty common. People are prepared with generators, chains saws to cut down trees, etc. This will be a "does the hotel have power?" and "how do I plan to get the kids back to the venue?" series of questions, so completely different from what I'm used to doing. Thank you in advance! I would say a few % chance of strong/damaging wind in St. Louis city limits (5-10 mile diameter) on Wednesday, heavy rain possible (30% chance of mod-heavy rain) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
monadnocks Posted April 25, 2016 Share Posted April 25, 2016 Thanks everyone! It's going to be a huge event and I'm glad that the weather doesn't look to be that bad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SluggerWx Posted April 25, 2016 Share Posted April 25, 2016 Pretty tight rotation just formed on top of Abilene, KS - not warned yet.Edit: gone with the next scan - but they may want to check the north side of Abilene for some damage - couplet looked strong to me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OUGrad05 Posted April 25, 2016 Share Posted April 25, 2016 How so? I'm just confused. Looking at the trend the last couple of runs in the OKC area, the NAM is showing the moisture getting shallower. Look skewT on the 18Z NAM yesterday in OK county vs today's 18Z, use 00Z weds as your time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hlcater Posted April 25, 2016 Share Posted April 25, 2016 Pretty tight rotation just formed on top of Abilene, KS - not warned yet. Edit: gone with the next scan - but they may want to check the north side of Abilene for some damage - couplet looked strong to me. Looked like just radar noise to me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MattPetrulli Posted April 25, 2016 Share Posted April 25, 2016 Probably have a tornado in progress East of Junction City. CC Hole and tight rotation showing up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MattPetrulli Posted April 25, 2016 Share Posted April 25, 2016 Probably have a tornado in progress East of Junction City. CC Hole and tight rotation showing up. THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TOPEKA HAS ISSUED A * TORNADO WARNING FOR... WEST CENTRAL WABAUNSEE COUNTY IN EAST CENTRAL KANSAS... EAST CENTRAL GEARY COUNTY IN EAST CENTRAL KANSAS... * UNTIL 945 PM CDT * AT 912 PM CDT...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO WAS LOCATED 8 MILES SOUTHEAST OF OGDEN...MOVING EAST AT 25 MPH. HAZARD...TORNADO AND GOLF BALL SIZE HAIL. SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED ROTATION. IMPACT...FLYING DEBRIS WILL BE DANGEROUS TO THOSE CAUGHT WITHOUT SHELTER. MOBILE HOMES WILL BE DAMAGED OR DESTROYED. DAMAGE TO ROOFS...WINDOWS...AND VEHICLES WILL OCCUR. TREE DAMAGE IS LIKELY. * THIS TORNADIC THUNDERSTORM WILL REMAIN OVER MAINLY RURAL AREAS OF WEST CENTRAL WABAUNSEE AND EAST CENTRAL GEARY COUNTIES. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... TAKE COVER NOW! MOVE TO A BASEMENT OR AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF A STURDY BUILDING. AVOID WINDOWS. IF YOU ARE OUTDOORS...IN A MOBILE HOME...OR IN A VEHICLE...MOVE TO THE CLOSEST SUBSTANTIAL SHELTER AND PROTECT YOURSELF FROM FLYING DEBRIS. && LAT...LON 3905 9667 3906 9650 3904 9650 3904 9640 3896 9640 3896 9667 TIME...MOT...LOC 0212Z 267DEG 23KT 3900 9664 TORNADO...RADAR INDICATED HAIL...1.75IN Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Misstertwister Posted April 25, 2016 Share Posted April 25, 2016 Question:: does anyone think TV mets are reluctant to change there graphics until after SWODY's come out? For instance we know D1, D2 get a couple of changes a day but D3 doesn't do it seems like TV Mets will stay with there graphic until SPC or NWS makes changes. Reason being, and I know we are all watching the models closely now but it seems like sometimes we see DL changes, or crapvection or whatever that could definitely change the risk, the placing etcetera but it seems like TV keeps the same graphic. Thoughts? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MattPetrulli Posted April 25, 2016 Share Posted April 25, 2016 Question:: does anyone think TV mets are reluctant to change there graphics until after SWODY's come out? For instance we know D1, D2 get a couple of changes a day but D3 doesn't do it seems like TV Mets will stay with there graphic until SPC or NWS makes changes. Reason being, and I know we are all watching the models closely now but it seems like sometimes we see DL changes, or crapvection or whatever that could definitely change the risk, the placing etcetera but it seems like TV keeps the same graphic. Thoughts? Depends on the station. Some don't even follow SPC and make custom graphics COUGH KFOR. But about 75% follow SPC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted April 25, 2016 Share Posted April 25, 2016 Depends on the station. Some don't even follow SPC and make custom graphics COUGH KFOR. But about 75% follow SPC. I guess if you are in Birmingham AL, the BMX office has different colors and different outlook categories from SPC, for their area. Then you have James Spann ranting and raving about the discrepancy between BMX and SPC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Misstertwister Posted April 25, 2016 Share Posted April 25, 2016 Depends on the station. Some don't even follow SPC and make custom graphics COUGH KFOR. But about 75% follow SPC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OUGrad05 Posted April 25, 2016 Share Posted April 25, 2016 Sig Tor has trended down on the 00Z NAM for Tuesday in central and northern OK. I'm off to bed guys, sleep well, we'll have another look in the morning Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Misstertwister Posted April 25, 2016 Share Posted April 25, 2016 Depends on the station. Some don't even follow SPC and make custom graphics COUGH KFOR. But about 75% follow SPC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Misstertwister Posted April 25, 2016 Share Posted April 25, 2016 Depends on the station. Some don't even follow SPC and make custom graphics COUGH KFOR. But about 75% follow SPC. I hear you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Misstertwister Posted April 25, 2016 Share Posted April 25, 2016 Depends on the station. Some don't even follow SPC and make custom graphics COUGH KFOR. But about 75% follow SPC. I hear you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Misstertwister Posted April 25, 2016 Share Posted April 25, 2016 Sorry with the multiple posts. Operator error So is the DL pushing east to I35?? Can't wait for next model runs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ClicheVortex2014 Posted April 25, 2016 Share Posted April 25, 2016 Sig Tor has trended down on the 00Z NAM for Tuesday in central and northern OK. I'm off to bed guys, sleep well, we'll have another look in the morning It's not that big of a big deal. Besides, the soundings from this run have a better BL than 12z and on a larger scale. 12z 00z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted April 25, 2016 Share Posted April 25, 2016 It's not that big of a big deal. Besides, the soundings from this run have a better BL than 12z and on a larger scale. That's a pretty ugly VBV, flow above 700 is far too meridional = messy storm modes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted April 25, 2016 Share Posted April 25, 2016 Looking at the 00z NAM and 4km-NAM for 00z Wed. The 3km SRH values are 100-150 m2/s2 from Dallas to Wichita. Those values of 3km SRH are not really very high, compared to significant EF3-EF5 tornado events. The SCP, SigTor, EHI numbers are dominated by high CAPE rather than high SRH at that hour. SRH values (1km and 3km) increase going into the nighttime hours. The 4km NAM reflectivity shows Oklahoma to be almost storm-less 21z to 03z. 12km NAM also shows very little in Oklahoma. What???? Totally capped in Oklahoma? Is the forcing really that weak? The 00z GFS shows some substantial QPF in east Oklahoma, 00z to 06z though. So that is something. edit: Today's 12z Euro had a large MCS dominating the mid-plains by 21z. So it is kind of the opposite of the NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brettjrob Posted April 25, 2016 Share Posted April 25, 2016 I'm going with a D2 ENH from NE/IA to N OK, with a SLGT south of there. Too many flies in the ointment. Haven't dissected tonight's runs in detail yet, but I'm still not too concerned about a total cap bust north of END or so... such worries almost always prove unfounded with these dynamic systems. Storm mode, helicity, and to some extent timing are all very legitimate issues, though. I almost feel bad for anyone who committed to an expensive long distance chase, at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted April 25, 2016 Author Share Posted April 25, 2016 almost feel bad for anyone who committed to an expensive long distance chase, at this point.This is why I'm happy I have till about 4AM Tuesday to decide on what to do. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ClicheVortex2014 Posted April 25, 2016 Share Posted April 25, 2016 FWIW... ARW: http://i.imgur.com/ZmI7Ac2.png http://i.imgur.com/0NTVNqS.png Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted April 25, 2016 Share Posted April 25, 2016 FWIW... ARW: http://i.imgur.com/ZmI7Ac2.png http://i.imgur.com/0NTVNqS.png Looks like a total mess further south, about what you would expect with the wind fields forecast. That type of endless seeding is what happens with meridional/VBV profiles. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brettjrob Posted April 25, 2016 Share Posted April 25, 2016 And just to cap off this awesomesauce week, an all day MCS washout Friday as the next apocalyptic trough ejects into the Plains. There's always the late season, I guess. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted April 25, 2016 Share Posted April 25, 2016 Maybe one of the main chase targets will be the triple point/warm front in Nebraska with northward-tracking supercells. The 4km NAM does show quite a few cells with associated updraft helicity in Nebraska. Later in the week-- GFS seems to show a pretty good snowstorm, maybe snow down below 7000ft. Our reservoirs might be above average to start the summer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
David Reimer Posted April 25, 2016 Share Posted April 25, 2016 Let this be another reason why folks shouldn't get their undies in a tizzy over a awesome looking setup a week out. Four out of five times it'll go into the crapper somehow. At least we know D/FW will get baseballs again on Tuesday since that's the theme for 2016. EDIT: Texas is going to have a nasty squall line fire up Tuesday evening. Some pretty impressive UH tracks late Tuesday/early Wednesday. Probably looking at a decent hail/wind event setting up with QLCS tornadoes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted April 25, 2016 Share Posted April 25, 2016 Looks like a Day 2 moderate is out, from southern NE down to around OKC? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherextreme Posted April 25, 2016 Share Posted April 25, 2016 MODERATE 55,875 3,058,241 Oklahoma City, OK...Wichita, KS...Norman, OK...Edmond, OK...Midwest City, OK... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted April 25, 2016 Share Posted April 25, 2016 Sheesh that's a big D2 moderate, also with a mention of a high risk upgrade. Rather shocked. I don't see any mention of the awry wind profiles, which seems like an overlook. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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