Jump to content
  • Member Statistics

    17,613
    Total Members
    7,904
    Most Online
    RyRyB
    Newest Member
    RyRyB
    Joined

April 24-30th Severe Potential


Chicago Storm

Recommended Posts

Thanks for posting that. Maroon = large hail (1-2"), yellow = giant hail (2"+). 

 

Relevant papers for anyone interested:

http://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/full/10.1175/JAMC-D-13-073.1

http://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/full/10.1175/JAMC-D-13-074.1

http://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/full/10.1175/JAMC-D-15-0203.1

 

attachicon.gifhsda.png

Isn't "Giant Hail" officially 4+ inches for the NWS/SPC?

Link to comment
Share on other sites

  • Replies 1.2k
  • Created
  • Last Reply

They tweak these models every year or so... Sometimes the tweaks work sometimes they don't. I remember a couple of years ago that the 4km NAM was much better.

Is Tulsa going to receive giant hail and tornado's on Tuesday? I got **** to do..

Isn't "Giant Hail" officially 4+ inches for the NWS/SPC?

Sent from my HTC6525LVW using Tapatalk

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Is Tulsa going to receive giant hail and tornado's on Tuesday? I got **** to do..

Sent from my HTC6525LVW using Tapatalk

I think there's a good possibility of large hail, damaging winds, and possibly tornadoes with any storm you would get... From TSA AFD (subject to change):
"Atmosphere will become very unstable by late afternoon along/east of dry line
moving through western Oklahoma. Thunderstorms are expected to
rapidly develop along dry line by late afternoon with severe
storms moving into northeast Oklahoma by early evening. All modes
of severe weather will be likely, including tornadoes, as storms
move through the remainder of eastern Oklahoma/northwest Arkansas
Tuesday night."
Link to comment
Share on other sites

From TSA AFD (subject to change):

"Atmosphere will become very unstable by late afternoon along/east of dry line

moving through western Oklahoma. Thunderstorms are expected to

rapidly develop along dry line by late afternoon with severe

storms moving into northeast Oklahoma by early evening. All modes

of severe weather will be likely, including tornadoes, as storms

move through the remainder of eastern Oklahoma/northwest Arkansas

Tuesday night."

Well damn.. thanks jojo!! :D

Sent from my HTC6525LVW using Tapatalk

Link to comment
Share on other sites

That new HCA stuff is awesome, but it's only in place at ICT for now? When does it roll out everywhere else?

I've found HCA a very good way to skirt the edge of hail cores over the past few years, with very good success.

Link to comment
Share on other sites


WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION FOR WATCH 102

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK

605 PM CDT SUN APR 24 2016

OKC003-047-053-071-093-103-151-153-250015-

/O.CAN.KOUN.TO.A.0102.000000T0000Z-160425T0400Z/

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HAS CANCELLED TORNADO WATCH 102 FOR

THE FOLLOWING AREAS

IN OKLAHOMA THIS CANCELS 8 COUNTIES

IN NORTHERN OKLAHOMA

GARFIELD GRANT KAY

NOBLE

IN NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA

ALFALFA MAJOR WOODS

WOODWARD

THIS INCLUDES THE CITIES OF...ALVA...BLACKWELL...CARMEN...

CHEROKEE...ENID...FAIRVIEW...HELENA...LAMONT...MEDFORD...PERRY...

PONCA CITY...POND CREEK...WAKITA AND WOODWARD.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

There was a tor NW of Superior, NE at short time ago.

I was wondering about that storm. Tight couplet at close range of the radar site, but I didn't notice any sign of a debris signature on CC.

Must've touched down in a rural area.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Sounds like it was all for the same tor.

That was the only couplet in the area, so most likely.

Well, I can see the rotation about 2 miles northeast of Bostwick, then there's two reports a few miles away. Maybe those two reports near Nora were reports of people seeing the tornado near Bostwick.

 

zdqT6Io.png

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Well, I can see the rotation about 2 miles northeast of Bostwick, then there's two reports a few miles away. Maybe those two reports near Nora were reports of people seeing the tornado near Bostwick.

It was likely the same tor. Visibility was great out there, and one of them was a report correction.
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Strong tornado likely approaching Muden, KS. 

 

TORNADO WARNING FOR...

NORTHWESTERN WASHINGTON COUNTY IN NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS...

* UNTIL 745 PM CDT

* AT 714 PM CDT...A TORNADO PRODUCING STORM WAS LOCATED OVER MAHASKA...

MOVING EAST AT 45 MPH.

HAZARD...DAMAGING TORNADO AND HAIL UP TO TWO INCHES IN DIAMETER.

SOURCE...RADAR CONFIRMED TORNADO. DAMAGE WAS ALSO REPORTED IN

MUNDEN WITH THIS STORM.

IMPACT...FLYING DEBRIS WILL BE DANGEROUS TO THOSE CAUGHT WITHOUT

SHELTER. MOBILE HOMES WILL BE DAMAGED OR DESTROYED.

DAMAGE TO ROOFS...WINDOWS...AND VEHICLES WILL OCCUR. TREE

DAMAGE IS LIKELY.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TOPEKA HAS ISSUED A

 

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...

  NORTHWESTERN GEARY COUNTY IN EAST CENTRAL KANSAS...

  SOUTHWESTERN RILEY COUNTY IN NORTHEASTERN KANSAS...

 

* UNTIL 800 PM CDT

 

* AT 734 PM CDT...A CONFIRMED TORNADO WAS LOCATED OVER

  SOUTHERN MILFORD LAKE... MOVING NORTHEAST AT 30 MPH.

 

  HAZARD...DAMAGING TORNADO AND BASEBALL SIZE HAIL. 

 

  SOURCE...LAW ENFORCEMENT CONFIRMED TORNADO. 

 

  IMPACT...FLYING DEBRIS WILL BE DANGEROUS TO THOSE CAUGHT WITHOUT 

           SHELTER. MOBILE HOMES WILL BE DAMAGED OR DESTROYED. 

           DAMAGE TO ROOFS...WINDOWS...AND VEHICLES WILL OCCUR.  TREE 

           DAMAGE IS LIKELY. 

 

* THE TORNADO WILL BE NEAR...

  MILFORD AROUND 740 PM CDT. 

  OGDEN AROUND 755 PM CDT. 

  SOUTHWESTERN MANHATTAN AROUND 800 PM CDT. 

 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

 

TO REPEAT...A TORNADO IS ON THE GROUND. TAKE COVER NOW! MOVE TO A

BASEMENT OR AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF A STURDY

BUILDING. AVOID WINDOWS. IF YOU ARE OUTDOORS...IN A MOBILE HOME...OR IN

A VEHICLE...MOVE TO THE CLOSEST SUBSTANTIAL SHELTER AND PROTECT

YOURSELF FROM FLYING DEBRIS.

 

&&

 

LAT...LON 3912 9664 3905 9696 3915 9696 3926 9675

TIME...MOT...LOC 0034Z 235DEG 25KT 3910 9693 

 

TORNADO...OBSERVED

HAIL...2.75IN

 

$$

 

GARGAN
Link to comment
Share on other sites

The environment that that storm is in is pretty impressive. 0-1KM Shear of 30kts, 45kts effective-shear, ~300m2/s2 ESRH, 1500J/KG MLCAPE per SPC mesoanalysis. Interestingly, the 00Z KTOP sounding is much less impressive.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

I know this is such "how much for my backyard" question but I'm really not experienced with midwest weather. I'm chaperoning a group of students in St. Louis starting on Tuesday afternoon through Sunday morning. What is the likelihood that we will see large hail? very strong winds? power outages?

 

I'm in rural New Hampshire and power outages are pretty common. People are prepared with generators, chains saws to cut down trees, etc. This will be a "does the hotel have power?" and "how do I plan to get the kids back to the venue?" series of questions, so completely different from what I'm used to doing.

 

Thank you in advance!

Link to comment
Share on other sites

I know this is such "how much for my backyard" question but I'm really not experienced with midwest weather. I'm chaperoning a group of students in St. Louis starting on Tuesday afternoon through Sunday morning. What is the likelihood that we will see large hail? very strong winds? power outages?

 

I'm in rural New Hampshire and power outages are pretty common. People are prepared with generators, chains saws to cut down trees, etc. This will be a "does the hotel have power?" and "how do I plan to get the kids back to the venue?" series of questions, so completely different from what I'm used to doing.

 

Thank you in advance!

SVR on Wednesday is a real possibility.  A bit early to tell you details, a lot will depend on what happens Tuesday night and early Weds morn.  

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Archived

This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    • No registered users viewing this page.

×
×
  • Create New...