jojo762 Posted April 24, 2016 Share Posted April 24, 2016 Thanks for posting that. Maroon = large hail (1-2"), yellow = giant hail (2"+). Relevant papers for anyone interested: - http://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/full/10.1175/JAMC-D-13-073.1 - http://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/full/10.1175/JAMC-D-13-074.1 - http://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/full/10.1175/JAMC-D-15-0203.1 hsda.png Isn't "Giant Hail" officially 4+ inches for the NWS/SPC? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Smokey_mountain_vols Posted April 24, 2016 Share Posted April 24, 2016 They tweak these models every year or so... Sometimes the tweaks work sometimes they don't. I remember a couple of years ago that the 4km NAM was much better.Is Tulsa going to receive giant hail and tornado's on Tuesday? I got **** to do.. Isn't "Giant Hail" officially 4+ inches for the NWS/SPC? Sent from my HTC6525LVW using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LocoAko Posted April 24, 2016 Share Posted April 24, 2016 Isn't "Giant Hail" officially 4+ inches for the NWS/SPC? The labels are subjective of course but "large"/"giant" correspond to severe/sig. severe hail, as per SPC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jojo762 Posted April 24, 2016 Share Posted April 24, 2016 Is Tulsa going to receive giant hail and tornado's on Tuesday? I got **** to do.. Sent from my HTC6525LVW using Tapatalk I think there's a good possibility of large hail, damaging winds, and possibly tornadoes with any storm you would get... From TSA AFD (subject to change): "Atmosphere will become very unstable by late afternoon along/east of dry line moving through western Oklahoma. Thunderstorms are expected to rapidly develop along dry line by late afternoon with severe storms moving into northeast Oklahoma by early evening. All modes of severe weather will be likely, including tornadoes, as storms move through the remainder of eastern Oklahoma/northwest Arkansas Tuesday night." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Smokey_mountain_vols Posted April 24, 2016 Share Posted April 24, 2016 From TSA AFD (subject to change): "Atmosphere will become very unstable by late afternoon along/east of dry line moving through western Oklahoma. Thunderstorms are expected to rapidly develop along dry line by late afternoon with severe storms moving into northeast Oklahoma by early evening. All modes of severe weather will be likely, including tornadoes, as storms move through the remainder of eastern Oklahoma/northwest Arkansas Tuesday night." Well damn.. thanks jojo!! Sent from my HTC6525LVW using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormchaser31 Posted April 24, 2016 Share Posted April 24, 2016 Doing live coverage of this current event now. Feel free to ask questions and join in. In search of guests. http://youtu.be/BRivURrVeJY <iframe width="420" height="315" src="http://www.youtube.com/embed/BRivURrVeJY" frameborder="0" allowfullscreen></iframe> Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
capbreak Posted April 24, 2016 Share Posted April 24, 2016 That new HCA stuff is awesome, but it's only in place at ICT for now? When does it roll out everywhere else?I've found HCA a very good way to skirt the edge of hail cores over the past few years, with very good success. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wildwestpb Posted April 24, 2016 Share Posted April 24, 2016 WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION FOR WATCH 102 NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK 605 PM CDT SUN APR 24 2016 OKC003-047-053-071-093-103-151-153-250015- /O.CAN.KOUN.TO.A.0102.000000T0000Z-160425T0400Z/ THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HAS CANCELLED TORNADO WATCH 102 FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS IN OKLAHOMA THIS CANCELS 8 COUNTIES IN NORTHERN OKLAHOMA GARFIELD GRANT KAY NOBLE IN NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA ALFALFA MAJOR WOODS WOODWARD THIS INCLUDES THE CITIES OF...ALVA...BLACKWELL...CARMEN... CHEROKEE...ENID...FAIRVIEW...HELENA...LAMONT...MEDFORD...PERRY... PONCA CITY...POND CREEK...WAKITA AND WOODWARD. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted April 24, 2016 Share Posted April 24, 2016 low-CC (correlation) signal near the velocity couplet at Bavaria/Salina. Possible tornado. This location is generally a little far (from KICT and KTWX) for the radar to pick up a good TDS signal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted April 24, 2016 Author Share Posted April 24, 2016 There was a tor NW of Superior, NE at short time ago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jojo762 Posted April 24, 2016 Share Posted April 24, 2016 There was a tor NW of Superior, NE at short time ago. Still a confirmed tornado with that according to the warning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OhioWX Posted April 24, 2016 Share Posted April 24, 2016 There was a tor NW of Superior, NE at short time ago. I was wondering about that storm. Tight couplet at close range of the radar site, but I didn't notice any sign of a debris signature on CC. Must've touched down in a rural area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MattPetrulli Posted April 24, 2016 Share Posted April 24, 2016 ere it is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted April 24, 2016 Share Posted April 24, 2016 three prelim tornado reports near Bostwick NE with (perhaps) different circulations? weird. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted April 24, 2016 Author Share Posted April 24, 2016 three prelim tornado reports near Bostwick NE with (perhaps) different circulations? weird.Sounds like it was all for the same tor.That was the only couplet in the area, so most likely. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted April 24, 2016 Share Posted April 24, 2016 Sounds like it was all for the same tor. That was the only couplet in the area, so most likely. Well, I can see the rotation about 2 miles northeast of Bostwick, then there's two reports a few miles away. Maybe those two reports near Nora were reports of people seeing the tornado near Bostwick. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OhioWX Posted April 24, 2016 Share Posted April 24, 2016 The cell near Belleville, KS needs to be tornado warned. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted April 24, 2016 Author Share Posted April 24, 2016 The cell near Belleville, KS needs to be tornado warned. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted April 24, 2016 Author Share Posted April 24, 2016 Well, I can see the rotation about 2 miles northeast of Bostwick, then there's two reports a few miles away. Maybe those two reports near Nora were reports of people seeing the tornado near Bostwick.It was likely the same tor. Visibility was great out there, and one of them was a report correction. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MattPetrulli Posted April 24, 2016 Share Posted April 24, 2016 Strong tornado likely approaching Muden, KS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherextreme Posted April 25, 2016 Share Posted April 25, 2016 Strong tornado likely approaching Muden, KS. TORNADO WARNING FOR... NORTHWESTERN WASHINGTON COUNTY IN NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS... * UNTIL 745 PM CDT * AT 714 PM CDT...A TORNADO PRODUCING STORM WAS LOCATED OVER MAHASKA... MOVING EAST AT 45 MPH. HAZARD...DAMAGING TORNADO AND HAIL UP TO TWO INCHES IN DIAMETER. SOURCE...RADAR CONFIRMED TORNADO. DAMAGE WAS ALSO REPORTED IN MUNDEN WITH THIS STORM. IMPACT...FLYING DEBRIS WILL BE DANGEROUS TO THOSE CAUGHT WITHOUT SHELTER. MOBILE HOMES WILL BE DAMAGED OR DESTROYED. DAMAGE TO ROOFS...WINDOWS...AND VEHICLES WILL OCCUR. TREE DAMAGE IS LIKELY. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jcwxguy Posted April 25, 2016 Share Posted April 25, 2016 just had 70mph winds and 2" hail here about 15 minutes ago. 0 visibility for a short time also. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MattPetrulli Posted April 25, 2016 Share Posted April 25, 2016 THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TOPEKA HAS ISSUED A * TORNADO WARNING FOR... NORTHWESTERN GEARY COUNTY IN EAST CENTRAL KANSAS... SOUTHWESTERN RILEY COUNTY IN NORTHEASTERN KANSAS... * UNTIL 800 PM CDT * AT 734 PM CDT...A CONFIRMED TORNADO WAS LOCATED OVER SOUTHERN MILFORD LAKE... MOVING NORTHEAST AT 30 MPH. HAZARD...DAMAGING TORNADO AND BASEBALL SIZE HAIL. SOURCE...LAW ENFORCEMENT CONFIRMED TORNADO. IMPACT...FLYING DEBRIS WILL BE DANGEROUS TO THOSE CAUGHT WITHOUT SHELTER. MOBILE HOMES WILL BE DAMAGED OR DESTROYED. DAMAGE TO ROOFS...WINDOWS...AND VEHICLES WILL OCCUR. TREE DAMAGE IS LIKELY. * THE TORNADO WILL BE NEAR... MILFORD AROUND 740 PM CDT. OGDEN AROUND 755 PM CDT. SOUTHWESTERN MANHATTAN AROUND 800 PM CDT. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... TO REPEAT...A TORNADO IS ON THE GROUND. TAKE COVER NOW! MOVE TO A BASEMENT OR AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF A STURDY BUILDING. AVOID WINDOWS. IF YOU ARE OUTDOORS...IN A MOBILE HOME...OR IN A VEHICLE...MOVE TO THE CLOSEST SUBSTANTIAL SHELTER AND PROTECT YOURSELF FROM FLYING DEBRIS. && LAT...LON 3912 9664 3905 9696 3915 9696 3926 9675 TIME...MOT...LOC 0034Z 235DEG 25KT 3910 9693 TORNADO...OBSERVED HAIL...2.75IN $$ GARGAN Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jojo762 Posted April 25, 2016 Share Posted April 25, 2016 The environment that that storm is in is pretty impressive. 0-1KM Shear of 30kts, 45kts effective-shear, ~300m2/s2 ESRH, 1500J/KG MLCAPE per SPC mesoanalysis. Interestingly, the 00Z KTOP sounding is much less impressive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted April 25, 2016 Share Posted April 25, 2016 MRMS rotation track on Munden storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jcwxguy Posted April 25, 2016 Share Posted April 25, 2016 look closely, 3rd rainbow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OUGrad05 Posted April 25, 2016 Share Posted April 25, 2016 Moisture depth is trending the wrong way on Tuesday. Has anyone else noticed that? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
monadnocks Posted April 25, 2016 Share Posted April 25, 2016 I know this is such "how much for my backyard" question but I'm really not experienced with midwest weather. I'm chaperoning a group of students in St. Louis starting on Tuesday afternoon through Sunday morning. What is the likelihood that we will see large hail? very strong winds? power outages? I'm in rural New Hampshire and power outages are pretty common. People are prepared with generators, chains saws to cut down trees, etc. This will be a "does the hotel have power?" and "how do I plan to get the kids back to the venue?" series of questions, so completely different from what I'm used to doing. Thank you in advance! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OUGrad05 Posted April 25, 2016 Share Posted April 25, 2016 I know this is such "how much for my backyard" question but I'm really not experienced with midwest weather. I'm chaperoning a group of students in St. Louis starting on Tuesday afternoon through Sunday morning. What is the likelihood that we will see large hail? very strong winds? power outages? I'm in rural New Hampshire and power outages are pretty common. People are prepared with generators, chains saws to cut down trees, etc. This will be a "does the hotel have power?" and "how do I plan to get the kids back to the venue?" series of questions, so completely different from what I'm used to doing. Thank you in advance! SVR on Wednesday is a real possibility. A bit early to tell you details, a lot will depend on what happens Tuesday night and early Weds morn. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chase_stormz Posted April 25, 2016 Share Posted April 25, 2016 Moisture depth is trending the wrong way on Tuesday. Has anyone else noticed that? How so? I'm just confused. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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