ClicheVortex2014 Posted April 24, 2016 Share Posted April 24, 2016 4km NAM cracks me up Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ClicheVortex2014 Posted April 24, 2016 Share Posted April 24, 2016 Funnel cloud on stream https://tvnweather.com/live/chasers/847783520 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonbo Posted April 24, 2016 Share Posted April 24, 2016 Pretty nice view on the StormScapeLIVE.TV stream, storm has organized a decent amount recently. Wall Cloud now. That's about to drop a big tornado Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted April 24, 2016 Share Posted April 24, 2016 That's about to drop a big tornado Nah, it's not rotating that strongly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ClicheVortex2014 Posted April 24, 2016 Share Posted April 24, 2016 Ahhh... it was so close to touching down Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonbo Posted April 24, 2016 Share Posted April 24, 2016 Nah, it's not rotating that strongly. I meant big as in size with how quickly the wall cloud was coming down, but it got choked out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OUGrad05 Posted April 24, 2016 Share Posted April 24, 2016 18Z NAM is much more impressive across the dryline in OK and near the triple-point. It is a tad further west, so it keeps I-35 in play. This is at 03Z in NC OK... The best window for tornadoes may be relatively confined to a few hours though, as VBV becomes an issue later on in the night it appears. Lets see if it holds for more than one run. Maybe the 00Z will back it up. 4km NAM cracks me up What location is that? Thats bonkers... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ClicheVortex2014 Posted April 24, 2016 Share Posted April 24, 2016 Extreme SE Nebraska Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ZackH Posted April 24, 2016 Share Posted April 24, 2016 Lets see if it holds for more than one run. Maybe the 00Z will back it up. What location is that? Thats bonkers... It's also a convectively contaminated sounding Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
capbreak Posted April 24, 2016 Share Posted April 24, 2016 Lets see if it holds for more than one run. Maybe the 00Z will back it up. What location is that? Thats bonkers... Probably near Beatrice, where it keeps breaking out precip. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OUGrad05 Posted April 24, 2016 Share Posted April 24, 2016 It's also a convectively contaminated sounding I knew it had an issue but didn't know what...thanks for clarifying Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MattPetrulli Posted April 24, 2016 Share Posted April 24, 2016 I saw a sounding on the 4k that had 7k CAPE on Twitter somewhere. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted April 24, 2016 Share Posted April 24, 2016 I saw a sounding on the 4k that had 7k CAPE on Twitter somewhere. Which isn't going to verify. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted April 24, 2016 Share Posted April 24, 2016 the velocity couplet on the mid-Kansas tornado-warned storm got stronger over Ellsworth, KS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted April 24, 2016 Author Share Posted April 24, 2016 The current tor warned storm near Ellsworth, KS will likely be the lone interesting storm of the day, with CU quickly fading south of it and down into N. OK. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ZackH Posted April 24, 2016 Share Posted April 24, 2016 Which isn't going to verify. Not much on the 4km NAM verifies but it makes for great hype posts! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ClicheVortex2014 Posted April 24, 2016 Share Posted April 24, 2016 Not much on the 4km NAM verifies but it makes for great hype posts! Well said Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OUGrad05 Posted April 24, 2016 Share Posted April 24, 2016 Not much on the 4km NAM verifies but it makes for great hype posts! I've struggled to understand that. Why have a model that everyone agrees sucks? Why not tweak the math so that it's more accurate? I don't get it... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chase_stormz Posted April 24, 2016 Share Posted April 24, 2016 Which isn't going to verify. Just curious, why do you constantly say stuff like this? Of course it likely won't verify, but it's fun to post about. My 2 cents. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ZackH Posted April 24, 2016 Share Posted April 24, 2016 I've struggled to understand that. Why have a model that everyone agrees sucks? Why not tweak the math so that it's more accurate? I don't get it... They tweak these models every year or so... Sometimes the tweaks work sometimes they don't. I remember a couple of years ago that the 4km NAM was much better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ClicheVortex2014 Posted April 24, 2016 Share Posted April 24, 2016 I've struggled to understand that. Why have a model that everyone agrees sucks? Why not tweak the math so that it's more accurate? I don't get it... I think it's good only to about hour 12. Anything past that is bad... and hour 60 is just laughable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted April 24, 2016 Share Posted April 24, 2016 Just curious, why do you constantly say stuff like this? Of course it likely won't verify, but it's fun to post about. My 2 cents. Because it kind of gets old after awhile. Models were overestimating the dewpoints by at least 5 degrees in many spots today, otherwise that Ellsworth cell would likely be producing right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jojo762 Posted April 24, 2016 Share Posted April 24, 2016 The structure on the Ellsworth, KS supercell is pretty sweet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted April 24, 2016 Share Posted April 24, 2016 I saw a sounding on the 4k that had 7k CAPE on Twitter somewhere. The NAM-4km simulates individual storms. Just a few miles away from these storms, the dew point is higher than the rest of the area, and the winds may be shifted. This may make for some very high CAPE, high 3km SRH soundings that don't represent the environment. In reality, outflows can stabilize the environment near a storm. Higher dew points from the storm evaporation/outflow may increase CAPE if it gets into a warmer area. If you stay away from EHI "bullseyes" on the 4km NAM, the environment soundings can be reasonable, or perhaps the CAPE may be a bit higher than reality. And remember, the high-res models get worse and worse with synoptic features with time, more so than the synoptic-scale models. This is why the 60hr radar reflectivity forecast and CAPE forecast on the 4km NAM may be significantly wrong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OUGrad05 Posted April 24, 2016 Share Posted April 24, 2016 They tweak these models every year or so... Sometimes the tweaks work sometimes they don't. I remember a couple of years ago that the 4km NAM was much better. Yeah I distinctly remember relying on it with great success, then last year in particular it wasn't very good, doesn't seem to be off to a good start this year either. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted April 24, 2016 Author Share Posted April 24, 2016 The structure on the Ellsworth, KS supercell is pretty sweet.It had a nice radar presentation for a while as well, though not as much anymore. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jojo762 Posted April 24, 2016 Share Posted April 24, 2016 It had a nice radar presentation for a while as well, though not as much anymore. Interestingly, despite the 77/60 ob at SLN, the wall cloud is basically scraping the ground it appears. EDIT: Might've just had a skewed view... hard to tell. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted April 24, 2016 Share Posted April 24, 2016 Interestingly, despite the 77/60 ob at SLN, the wall cloud is basically scraping the ground it appears. preliminary tornado report from Glendale Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jojo762 Posted April 24, 2016 Share Posted April 24, 2016 preliminary tornado report from Glendale ...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 600 PM CDT FOR NORTHWESTERN SALINE COUNTY... AT 520 PM CDT...A CONFIRMED TORNADO WAS LOCATED 4 MILES SOUTH OF GLENDALE...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 30 MPH. HAZARD...DAMAGING TORNADO AND TWO INCH HAIL. SOURCE...STORM CHASER CONFIRMED TORNADO. IMPACT...FLYING DEBRIS WILL BE DANGEROUS TO THOSE CAUGHT WITHOUT SHELTER. MOBILE HOMES WILL BE DAMAGED OR DESTROYED. DAMAGE TO ROOFS...WINDOWS...AND VEHICLES WILL OCCUR. TREE DAMAGE IS LIKELY. THIS TORNADO WILL BE NEAR... SALINA AROUND 545 PM CDT. OTHER LOCATIONS IMPACTED BY THIS TORNADIC THUNDERSTORM INCLUDE GLENDALE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LocoAko Posted April 24, 2016 Share Posted April 24, 2016 GRLevel3 can now show a hydrometeor-classification of "large hail" and "giant hail" for the KICT radar only. More details (GRLevel3 owner forum) http://www.grlevelx.com/owners/viewtopic.php?f=37&t=9704 Thanks for posting that. Maroon = large hail (1-2"), yellow = giant hail (2"+). Relevant papers for anyone interested: - http://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/full/10.1175/JAMC-D-13-073.1 - http://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/full/10.1175/JAMC-D-13-074.1 - http://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/full/10.1175/JAMC-D-15-0203.1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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