4/27/2011 tornado outbreak anniversary coming

[kperk014]

April 20, 2011 started like this on American Weather forums:

 

Operational and ensemble runs from the GFS and ECMWF have consistently indicated a huge longwave trough moving eastward over the Central U.S. during this time frame. Embedded within this large-scale trough will likely be at least a couple vort maxes, one of which looks likely to eject out into the Plains on April 25, and another right on its heels on April 26-27. Specifics are lacking at the moment since we're still 6+ days away, but the large-scale pattern is highly suggestive of a major severe weather/tornado outbreak occurring on at least one of these days, if not multiple days.

When do we tap out and say uncle. Honestly I can't remember a pattern this hyperactive since maybe May of 03.

 

Posted 20 April 2011 - 10:57 AM

 

Models have been hinting at another potential severe weather event from the Central Plains east into our region sometime in the middle of next week. Models bring a very potent long-wave trough moving into the Central Plains around Tuesday of next week. With the Bermuda high off the east coast we manage to keep southerly flow at the surface bringing in warm-moist Gulf airmass across the entire region, with widespread Tds in the 60-70 degree range from the Ohio Valley to the Gulf coast, well in advance of this developing system. This is still a week out, but taking a look at last night's 0Z model group, something pretty significant looks to be brewing. Once again hodo's are long and loop clockwise with impressive 0-3KM helicity being shown. As HUN mentioned in their AFD the Euro is the slowest of the Global models as it digs the trough further south than the GFS. With the GFS bringing the front into western sections of the southeast by 0Z Wed, into Alabama and Central Tennessee ~12Z, and eventually working east into the Central Carolinas ~0Z Thursday.

 

If you would like to follow the thread as it progressed to the worst, deadliest tornado outbreak since the 1925 midwest tornado outbreak, here are a couple of links:

 

http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/topic/17368-historic-tornado-outbreak-april-27-2011/

 

http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/topic/17385-next-severe-weather-event-april-26-29/

 

http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/topic/17825-april-27-2011-tornado-outbreak/

[kperk014]

April 21, five years ago:

 

DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK 
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0359 AM CDT THU APR 21 2011

VALID 241200Z - 291200Z

...DISCUSSION...
WHILE SOME DETAILS VARY...THE 00Z ECMWF/GEFS/UKMET ARE IN AMPLE
GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH THE EXPECTED AMPLIFICATION OF THE LARGE SCALE
PATTERN LATE THIS WEEKEND/EARLY NEXT WEEK...HIGHLIGHTED BY A
PROMINENT WESTERN/CENTRAL CONUS UPPER TROUGH.

ON DAY 4/SUNDAY...THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS WILL LIKELY BE A FOCUS
FOR AT LEAST SOME SURFACE BASED SEVERE THREAT NEAR/EAST OF A DRYLINE
ACROSS WEST TX AND PERHAPS INTO OK. OTHER ELEVATED STORMS CAPABLE OF
SEVERE HAIL ARE PROBABLE SUNDAY NIGHT FROM OK INTO THE OZARKS/LOWER
MO VALLEY. BUT GIVEN LINGERING UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE EXTENT OF
PRE-DARK SURFACE BASED DEEP CONVECTION...LARGELY OWING TO
ANTICIPATED MODEST LARGE SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT/ONLY WEAK HEIGHT
FALLS...TOO MUCH UNCERTAINTY CURRENTLY EXISTS TO DELINEATE A 30
PERCENT EQUIVALENT SEVERE RISK AREA.

FOR DAY 5/MONDAY...HAVE INTRODUCED A SEVERE RISK AREA FOR PORTIONS
OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TO THE ARKLATEX/OZARKS. WHILE TIMING/SPATIAL
DETAILS VARY TO A DEGREE...REASONABLE CONFIDENCE EXISTS THAT A
SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL OVERSPREAD A MOIST AIRMASS TO
THE EAST OF THE DRYLINE/COLD FRONT. AS SUCH...SEVERE STORMS SEEM
LIKELY MONDAY/MONDAY NIGHT ACROSS THIS REGION.

INTO DAYS 6/7 TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY...AS THE NEXT PORTION OF THE CENTRAL
CONUS UPPER TROUGH PIVOTS EASTWARD...A RELATIVELY
WIDESPREAD/MULTI-ROUND SEVERE THREAT IS EXPECTED FROM THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS EAST-NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE MIDWEST AND LOWER/MIDDLE MS RIVER
VALLEY. WHILE SEVERE STORMS SEEM LIKELY EACH OF THESE
DAYS...SPECIFIC PREDICTABILITY IS STILL QUITE LIMITED IN THIS TIME
FRAME.
..GUYER.. 04/21/2011

 

Henry's map for outbreak next week

I really don't know what to expect from this outbreak anymore. I think his map needs to be shifted north. Both the SPC and him are so far south. This low is going to track a lot farther north than previous systems. There seems to be a lot of disagreement

 

Per Forbes on FB: MONDAY

Severe thunderstorm and tornado outbreak in central and east TX as far south as Austin and Houston, central and east OK, AR, northwest LA, extreme southeast KS, central and south MO, central and south IL, north, central, and southwest IN, northwest OH.

 

The 00z GFS is just sick...major severe event from TX to ME Monday-Thursday...unreal...65 dews in Quebec...60-65 in ME and New Brunswick...WTF... 

[kperk014]

Five years ago today:

 

Day started a little testy:

Posted 26 April 2011 - 12:27 AM'DixieBlizzard', on 26 Apr 2011 - 12:25 AM, said:

There are a couple on here that seem to "pulling" for a tornado for their area (to the point of geographical manipulation...just like winter!). By all means, if you get your wish you may never wish it again. I am friggin terrified of the notion of everything that I have worked for in life to be swept away in a matter of seconds but hey, if that's your thing!!!

This could be very serious on Wednesday. Everyone be careful and hope for the best. Thanks for the updates from the pros/skilled hobbyist too.

I don't think anyone on here is pulling for a tornado in there area, me myself is just stating a very serious concern I have for the Carolina's.

 

#174

VAwxman

Posted 26 April 2011 - 04:27 AM

The one potential saving grace I can find would be if remnant convection from what goes on tonight can keep parts of the TN valley overcast for a good part of the day tomorrow and limit instability. If tonight's stuff moves out quickly tomorrow, then it could get ugly. I've been a severe wx nut for awhile now and I can tell you that the setup does not get any more threatening than this for the TN valley. That isn't a guarantee, as small mesoscale features can make or break things, sometimes turning great synoptic setups into "junk", and sometimes turning lesser looking synoptic setups into something more ominous, but that kind of detail will have to be sorted out tomorrow. For now it is enough to say that, synoptically, you don't often see something like this.

 

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0100 AM CDT TUE APR 26 2011

VALID 271200Z - 281200Z

...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS A LARGE PORTION OF
KENTUCKY AND TENNESSEE...NORTHEAST AND EAST CENTRAL
MISSISSIPPI...THE NORTHERN HALF OF ALABAMA...AND NORTHWEST
GEORGIA...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE LOWER GREAT LAKES
REGION SWWD TO THE CENTRAL GULF COAST...

...SYNOPSIS...
A LARGE UPPER TROUGH INITIALLY OVER THE CENTRAL U.S. IS FORECAST TO
MAKE SLOW BUT STEADY EWD PROGRESS THIS PERIOD...WITH A POTENT SPEED
MAX FORECAST TO ROUND THE BASE OF THE TROUGH AND SHIFT ACROSS THE
MID SOUTH INTO THE OH VALLEY REGION WITH TIME.

AT THE SURFACE...A DEEPENING LOW IS FORECAST TO SHIFT FROM THE
VICINITY OF AR EARLY NNEWD TO THE GREAT LAKES REGION...WHILE A
TRAILING COLD FRONT ACCELERATES EWD ACROSS THE OH/TN/MID AND LOWER
MS VALLEYS. BY THE END OF THE PERIOD...THE FRONT SHOULD CROSS THE
APPALACHIANS -- WITH A ZONE BETWEEN THE MS RIVER AND THE APPALACHIAN
CREST LIKELY TO SEE A WIDESPREAD/POTENTIALLY DANGEROUS SEVERE
WEATHER EVENT THIS PERIOD.

...LOWER GREAT LAKES REGION SWWD TO THE CENTRAL GULF COAST...
***POTENTIAL FOR A SIGNIFICANT/WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER EVENT --
INCLUDING THE POSSIBILITY OF A TORNADO OUTBREAK -- REMAINS EVIDENT
THIS FORECAST...CENTERED ON THE MID SOUTH/TN VALLEY AREA.***

SOME QUESTIONS EXIST ATTM WITH RESPECT TO CONVECTIVE EVOLUTION THIS
PERIOD...CENTERED AROUND THE ONGOING STORMS PROGGED TO BE SHIFTING
ACROSS ERN AR AND INTO WRN TN/NRN MS AT THE START OF THE PERIOD.
WHILE THE COVERAGE AND PROGRESSION OF THIS CONVECTION COULD HAVE
EFFECTS ON TIMING/LOCATION OF LATER DAY STORMS AS WELL AS THE
QUALITY OF AIRMASS IN SOME AREAS...IT APPEARS ATTM THAT EARLY STORMS
SHOULD CONTINUE ENEWD ACROSS WRN KY/WRN TN/NRN MS THROUGH THE
MORNING...POSSIBLY WEAKENING SOME WITH TIME.

HOWEVER...AS HEATING OF THE MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER COMMENCES AHEAD OF
THE ADVANCING FRONT AND ASSOCIATED UPPER FEATURE AND AWAY FROM ANY
CONVECTIVELY-COOLED AREAS...STORM REINTENSIFICATION AND NEW STORM
DEVELOPMENT WILL BE LIKELY BY EARLY AFTERNOON.

STRONG SLY SURFACE FLOW AHEAD OF THE FRONT INCREASING TO 80 TO 100
KT FROM THE SW AT MID LEVELS WILL PROVIDE SHEAR HIGHLY FAVORABLE FOR
VERY INTENSE/LONG-LIVED ROTATING UPDRAFTS. THIS -- COMBINED WITH
FAVORABLE THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT...APPEARS SUPPORTIVE OF
SIGNIFICANT LONG-TRACK TORNADOES AND -- DEPENDING UPON STORM MODE --
THE THREAT FOR WIDESPREAD/VERY DAMAGING WINDS ALONG WITH LARGE HAIL.
ATTM...GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR TORNADOES APPEARS TO EXIST ACROSS
TN/KY/NRN MS AND NRN AND CENTRAL AL...WHILE POTENTIAL FOR WIDESPREAD
WIND DAMAGE -- ALONG WITH TORNADO THREAT -- WILL EXTEND NNEWD ACROSS
THE OH VALLEY TOWARD THE LOWER GREAT LAKES REGION AHEAD OF THE
FRONT.

OVERNIGHT...SOME TORNADO POTENTIAL WILL CONTINUE...THOUGH STORMS MAY
BECOME MORE LINEAR AHEAD OF THE ACCELERATING FRONT AS IT MOVES TO --
AND POSSIBLY ACROSS -- THE APPALACHIANS. EXPECT POTENTIAL FOR
DAMAGING WINDS TO PERSIST WITH THE CONVECTIVE LINE...GIVEN THE
OVERALL STRENGTH OF THE LARGE-SCALE SYSTEM.

..GOSS.. 04/26/2011

[kperk014]

 

Posted 26 April 2011 - 03:01 PM

on 26 Apr 2011 - 1:56 PM, said:

I know very much next to nothing when forecasting tornado outbreaks but fomr what I have heard it sounds extremely scary. There could be as many tornadoes as the Superoutbreak of 1974 but I dont think there will be as many strong/Violent EF3+ tornadoes. The Superoutbreak had 35 F3's, 24 F4's and 6 F5's. Even if we had a third of these strong/violent type of tornadoes it would be catastrophic, 12 EF3's 8 EF4's and 2 EF5's. The fatality rate could be very from having just that many strong/violent tornadoes and considering the population of the US probably has well overy 100,000,000 people increase since 1974.

Yes, the population has increased a lot, but not a huge percentage in the primary areas that would be affected.

In addition, tornado warning systems/technology are light years ahead of where they were in 1974, which would certainly help save lives.

 

Posted 26 April 2011 - 03:37 PM

   

on 26 Apr 2011 - 3:25 PM, said:

Right. Even if the setup is close to identical synoptically, so much has to work out just perfectly for the same result as far as number of tornadoes, etc. I'd also argue that, given the detection methods and spotter networks we have now, the real total in 1974 was likely easily over 148. Someday we may well see 140 in one outbreak again, due to that alone. Interesting for discussion's sake though.

It's fun to try to compare outbreaks but it's difficult, especially when they are in different eras. What would be the modern equivalent to the Super Outbreak... 180 tornadoes, 100 deaths, 20 EF4/EF5? Sort of like trying to compare different eras in baseball.

 

The number of violent F4/F5 tornadoes in the Super Outbreak (as opposed to the overall number) is probably the most anomalous aspect of it to me. If you consider the major outbreaks of the past 20 years or so and compare the number of violent tornadoes, they don't even come anywhere close to the Super Outbreak.

I have to go on record for saying this....I think this event will come very close to the number of F4/F5 tornadoes...Time will tell

 

The odds of this being another 'super outbreak' with 30 F4s and 6 F5s is about 1 in 1 million. Sure there will be a great number of tornadoes tomorrow, but to even put this outbreak in the same breath as the Super Outbreak is just foolish.

 

on 26 Apr 2011 - 6:15 PM, said:

This storm is going to be like The Day After Tomorrow.

I hope you all have your bug out bags ready cause SHTF tomorrow.

Chill out dude. Tomorrow will not be armageddon.

 

I'm starting to get really nervous. I hope this thing is a total bust. This is what FFC is saying . God, I hope they are wrong.

FINALLY...THE BIG SHOW COMES IN THE 18Z WED - 06Z THU

PERIOD WHEN ALL PARAMETERS ALIGN ALMOST PERFECTLY FOR A MAJOR SEVERE

WEATHER EVENT

 

According to Jim Cantore on Twitter, surprisingly few injury reports from the Vilonia, AR tornado. Amazing how a tornado can wipe out a town of 2,000 and there not be a ton of injury reports.

 

Reed Timmer on Twitter says he bets the Vilonia tornado gets an EF5 rating. Says its a very bad situation there.

 

From last night: 

 

[kperk014]

5 years ago today, dozens of early tornadoes have struck, some of them violent, killing five people in Alabama alone. Much of north Alabama lost power due to extensive damage which would prove to be fatal later in the day.

 

First PDS watch out today. Probabilities are off the charts.
 

Quote

DISCUSSION...A VERY VOLATILE SETUP IS DEVELOPING FOR PORTIONS OF MS
LATER TODAY AS A MOIST AND VERY UNSTABLE AIR MASS RETURNS INTO AN
AREA WITH IMPRESSIVE LOW LEVEL AND DEEP LAYER VERTICAL SHEAR
PROFILES. ACTIVITY IS CURRENTLY DEVELOPING OVER SOUTHEAST
AR/NORTHEAST LA. HOWEVER...IT APPEARS THE PRIMARY CONCERN WILL
START BY EARLY AFTERNOON OVER CENTRAL/NORTHERN MS WHERE DISCRETE
TORNADIC SUPERCELLS ARE LIKELY. ALL PARAMETERS SUGGEST THAT
STRONG/VIOLENT AND LONG-TRACK TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE. VERY LARGE
HAIL AND WIDESPREAD DAMAGING WINDS ARE ALSO A CONCERN.

Good Lord. Apocalypse. PDS Watch 232. This is unbelievable. Don't think probs this high have ever been issued.


Probability of 2 or more tornadoes
High (>95%)

Probability of 1 or more strong (F2-F5) tornadoes
High (90%)

Probability of 10 or more severe wind events
High (>95%)

Probability of 1 or more wind events > 65 knots
High (90%)

Probability of 10 or more severe hail events
High (>95%)

Probability of 1 or more hailstones > 2 inches
High (90%)

Probability of 6 or more combined severe hail/wind events
High (>95%)

Yeah I'm floored by how high these probabilities are. It's incredible. What's really becoming worrisome to me is there is a LOT of sun now over alabama and georgia, even some breaks over ms. So there is going to be some strong heating in the worst possible spots. Indeed, there is already cumulus rebuilding over al/ga. That is noteworthy especially over ga since we just had that line of activity die over ga. Normally you wouldn't see any cumulus development for quite a while but it's already happening..just goes to show you how unstable the atmosphere already is.

If descrete storms form out ahead of the main line, and they surely will, it's going to be a scary situation given current profiles and plenty of heat to work with now. I'm especially worried for west ga and our "tornado alley"...if I lived in that area, I would especially be on the lookout.
The damage this morning from that weakening line of storms was impressive over northwest ga...countless trees down.

 

hello there 45% tor contour

 

i wonder what they need to get a red becuase these are the best parameters i have ever seen?
I see they epanded the nMOD risk more north too with hatched tornado

 

yikes

..THERE IS A HIGH RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF MS...AL
TN
AND GA......

...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF
MS...AL...TN...KY...WRN VA...WRN NC...WRN SC...NRN GA...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE MID-MS
VALLEY...CNTRL TO ERN GULF COAST STATES...TN VALLEY...OH
VALLEY...CNTRL TO SRN APPALACHIAN MTNS...CAROLINAS...MID-ATLANTIC
AND NERN STATES...

...MAJOR TORNADO OUTBREAK EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS
THE TN VALLEY AND SRN APPALACHIAN MTNS EXTENDING NWD INTO THE SRN OH
VALLEY...

..TN VALLEY/SRN APPALACHIAN MTNS AND SRN OH VALLEY

A VIGOROUS UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO THE OZARKS TODAY AS A
POWERFUL MID-LEVEL JET ROUNDS THE BASE OF THE TROUGH AND NOSES INTO
THE OH AND TN VALLEYS. AT THE SFC... A LOW WILL MOVE QUICKLY NEWD
ACROSS THE MID-MS VALLEY AS LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE IS TRANSPORTED NNEWD
ACROSS THE OH AND TN VALLEYS THIS AFTERNOON. MODERATE
DESTABILIZATION IS ALREADY IN PLACE ACROSS THE LOWER MS VALLEY AND
THIS AIR MASS SHOULD MOVE NEWD INTO THE MODERATE AND HIGH RISK AREAS
BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON. THE WARM AND MOIST AIR MASS ALONG WITH
STRONG SHEAR PROFILES IN THE LOW TO MID-LEVELS WILL BE VERY
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS AND TORNADOES THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. THIS SYSTEM IS VERY ORGANIZED AND CONFIDENCE IS HIGH
REGARDING THE POTENTIAL FOR A MAJOR TORNADO OUTBREAK THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING ACROSS THE CNTRL GULF COAST STATES AND TN VALLEY
EXTENDING NWD INTO THE SRN OH VALLEY.

CONCERNING THE CURRENT SETUP...A LARGE MCS IS ONGOING ACROSS THE TN
VALLEY. THIS CONVECTIVE SYSTEM IS TIMED TO MOVE INTO ERN TN AND NW
GA BY 21Z. MESOANALYSIS SHOWS A RESERVOIR OF MODERATE INSTABILITY
FROM LA EXTENDING EWD ACROSS SCNTRL MS WHERE MLCAPE VALUES ARE
ESTIMATED IN THE 2000 TO 3000 J/KG RANGE. THIS MODERATE INSTABILITY
SHOULD BE TRANSPORTED NEWD INTO THE HIGH RISK AREA THIS AFTERNOON AS
THE MCS EXITS THE REGION TO THE EAST. AS THE THERMODYNAMIC SETUP
IMPROVES...THE WIND SHEAR ENVIRONMENT WILL ALSO RAPIDLY BECOME MORE
FAVORABLE AS THE NOSE OF A 80 TO 100 KT MID-LEVEL JET EJECTS EWD
ACROSS THE REGION AND INTERACTS WITH A WELL-DEVELOPED LOW-LEVEL JET.
THIS WILL CREATE LARGE LOOPING HODOGRAPHS FROM ERN MS AND NCNTRL AL
NWD INTO SRN TN. 0-3 KM STORM RELATIVE HELICITIES IN THE 450 TO 600
M2/S2 RANGE SHOULD BE VERY FAVORABLE FOR TORNADIC SUPERCELLS. THE
CURRENT THINKING IS THAT THE GREATEST TORNADO POTENTIAL WILL EXIST
LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS EVENING FROM COLUMBUS MS EWD TO
BIRMINGHAM AND HUNTSVILLE AL. THIS AREA IS CURRENTLY SOUTH OF THE
ONGOING MCS WHERE DESTABILIZATION SHOULD BE MOST FAVORABLE. AS
SUPERCELLS INITIATE IN ERN MS AND TRACK ENEWD ACROSS THE HIGH RISK
AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON...A TORNADO OUTBREAK IS EXPECTED. A FEW
LONG-TRACK STRONG TORNADOES AND POSSIBLY A VIOLENT TORNADO OR TWO
MAY OCCUR AS THE LOW-LEVEL JET STRENGTHENS EARLY THIS EVENING. HAVE
ADDED A 45 PERCENT SIG-TOR AREA WHERE CONFIDENCE IS THE HIGHEST
CONCERNING THE POTENTIAL FOR LONG-TRACK TORNADOES. LARGE HAIL AND
WIND DAMAGE WILL ALSO BE LIKELY WITH SUPERCELLS THAT DEVELOP.

FURTHER TO THE NORTH ACROSS MIDDLE TN IN WCNTRL KY...THE ONGOING MCS
IS HAMPERING DESTABILIZATION. HOWEVER...AS THE MID-LEVEL JET NOSES
INTO THE REGION FROM THE WEST...THE MODERATE INSTABILITY IN NRN LA
AND SRN AR IS EXPECTED TO ADVECT QUICKLY NNEWD ACROSS WCNTRL TN AND
WCNTRL KY BETWEEN THE EXITING MCS AND A CLUSTER OF STORMS IN NW AR
AND SRN MO. THIS SHOULD ALLOW THE MOIST AXIS TO BE LOCATED FROM WEST
OF NASHVILLE NEWD TO NEAR LOUISVILLE WHERE NUMEROUS SFC-BASED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO INITIATE LATE THIS AFTERNOON. THE
LOW-LEVEL JET AND MID-LEVEL JET ARE FORECAST TO BE JUXTAPOSED ACROSS
THIS CORRIDOR SUGGESTING SHEAR PROFILES WILL BE VERY FAVORABLE FOR
SUPERCELLS AND TORNADOES EVEN IF DESTABILIZATION IS NOT AS GREAT AS
IS EXPECTED. THE CURRENT THINKING IS THAT A BROKEN LINE OF TORNADIC
SUPERCELLS WILL INITIATE ALONG THE WRN EDGE OF THE MODERATE RISK
AREA AND TRACK EWD ACROSS CNTRL KY AND MIDDLE TN EARLY THIS EVENING.
THE LOW-LEVEL SHEAR ENVIRONMENT WILL BE VERY FAVORABLE FOR TORNADOES
AND A FEW LONG-TRACK STRONG TORNADOES MAY OCCUR. THE MODERATE RISK
AREA HAS BEEN EXTENDED WWD ACROSS PARTS OF MIDDLE TN AND CNTRL KY TO
ACCOUNT FOR THIS POSSIBILITY. LARGE HAIL AND WIND DAMAGE WILL ALSO
BE POSSIBLE WITH SUPERCELLS THAT DEVELOP.

AS A BROKEN LINE OF TORNADIC SUPERCELLS MOVES EWD ACROSS THE HIGH
AND MODERATE RISK AREAS THIS EVENING...A TRANSITION TO MORE OF A
WIND DAMAGE THREAT MAY OCCUR AS THE LINE CONGEALS AND BOWING
LINE-SEGMENTS DEVELOP. AN ENHANCED WIND DAMAGE THREAT SHOULD EXIST
AS FAR EAST AS WRN VA ...WRN NC AND WRN SC DURING THE LATE EVENING
HOURS WHEN A LARGE MCS MOVES INTO THE SRN APPALACHIAN MTNS. THE
TORNADO THREAT MAY SHIFT SWD LATE THIS EVENING INTO NRN GA WHERE THE
STORMS MAY TEND TO REMAIN DISCRETE.

..CNTRL TO NRN APPALACHIAN MTNS/CAROLINAS/ERN GULF COAST STATES

THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE CNTRL STATES WILL MOVE INTO THE MS
VALLEY THIS EVENING AS A POWERFUL MID-LEVEL JET EJECTS NEWD OUT OF
THE BASE OF THE TROUGH. THE EXIT REGION OF THE MID-LEVEL JET WILL
MOVE INTO THE CNTRL APPALACHIAN MTNS AND ERN GREAT LAKES WHERE DEEP
LAYER SHEAR PROFILES WILL BECOME MORE FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE STORMS
TONIGHT. ALONG AND TO THE EAST OF THE JET AXIS...A LINE OF STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED TO BE LOCATED FROM ERN OH EXTENDING SWD
INTO FAR WRN SC AROUND 06Z. THIS LINE SHOULD MOVE EWD ACROSS
NY...PA...VA...NC AND SC WHERE A WIND DAMAGE THREAT SHOULD EXIST DUE
TO STRONG LOW-LEVEL FLOW. AN ENHANCED WIND DAMAGE THREAT COULD EXIST
ACROSS VA AND WRN CAROLINAS WHERE THE MODELS DEVELOP MODERATE
INSTABILITY AFTER 06Z.
..BROYLES/GARNER.. 04/27/2011

 

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
1130 AM CDT WED APR 27 2011

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN HUNTSVILLE HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
SOUTHEASTERN LIMESTONE COUNTY IN NORTH CENTRAL ALABAMA...
SOUTHWESTERN MADISON COUNTY IN NORTH CENTRAL ALABAMA...
NORTHERN MORGAN COUNTY IN NORTH CENTRAL ALABAMA...

* UNTIL NOON CDT

* AT 1130 AM CDT...LOCAL LAW ENFORCEMENT REPORTED A TORNADO NEAR
DECATUR...MOVING EAST AT 35 MPH.

 

...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON CDT FOR
SOUTHWESTERN MADISON...SOUTHEASTERN LIMESTONE AND NORTHEASTERN MORGAN
COUNTIES...

AT 1137 AM CDT...LOCAL LAW ENFORCEMENT REPORTED A TORNADO. THIS
TORNADO WAS LOCATED NEAR BELLE MINA...OR ABOUT 6 MILES NORTHEAST OF
DECATUR...MOVING EAST AT 45 MPH.

 

Huntsville metro

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
1141 AM CDT WED APR 27 2011

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN HUNTSVILLE HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
EAST CENTRAL LIMESTONE COUNTY IN NORTH CENTRAL ALABAMA...
CENTRAL MADISON COUNTY IN NORTH CENTRAL ALABAMA...
WEST CENTRAL JACKSON COUNTY IN NORTHEAST ALABAMA...

* UNTIL 1215 PM CDT

* AT 1141 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS
TRACKING A CONFIRMED TORNADO NEAR CAPSHAW...OR ABOUT 6 MILES
NORTHWEST OF MADISON...MOVING EAST AT 50 MPH.

* LOCATIONS NEAR THE PATH OF THIS TORNADO INCLUDE...
HUNTSVILLE.
NORMAL.

Today's jet structure/mid-upper level winds are just...wow.

That's insane.

so is this.. 15 EHI values? good lord..

some more suspect storm reports from this morning for BHM metro'

0507 AM TSTM WND DMG BERRY 33.66N 87.61W
04/27/2011 FAYETTE AL EMERGENCY MNGR

NUMEROUS TREES DOWN AND STRUCTURE DAMAGE INCLUDING THE
ELEMENTARY SCHOOL. 30 TO 40 STRUCTURES DAMAGE. MAINLY
ROOF DAMAGE. AT LEASE 2 MOBILE HOMES DESTROYED. NO
INJURIES.

0525 AM TSTM WND DMG COALING 33.16N 87.34W
04/27/2011 TUSCALOOSA AL EMERGENCY MNGR

NUMEROUS TREES AND STRUCTURES DAMAGED IN THE COALING
AREA. AT LEAST 30 HOME DAMAGED, 15 OF THOSE HEAVILY
DAMAGED AND POTENTIALLY UNINHABITABLE. SEVERAL INJURIES
BUT NO DETAILS AT THIS TIME.

 

There are many people without power over MS and AL still and a EOC tower got blown down too..no way to warn..I'm sure some tornado sirens may be out too

stroms along the mS river are on a confluent zone where SW winds hit SE winds ....behind it still warm and humid ahaed of the front...so as usual a line may form along the front with tornadic supoercells well in advance

 

Cell currently WNW of Greenwood, MS is probably our first long-track tornado threat from the new cluster of development. Rotation appears to be tightening quickly. Greenwood sfc ob is at 81/72 right now, and this warm/moist air is surging northward in the wake of prior convection.

 

What scares me is that those two cells there (the northern one is strengthening) are just south of the big MCS this morning. God only knows what boundaries may be in place there.

[kperk014]

getting a big time core now on the cell north of Cleveland, MS.

 

Another PDS Tornado Watch is on the way for Mid TN and AL.

 

Ouch...

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
137 PM CDT WED APR 27 2011

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MEMPHIS HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
NORTHWESTERN CALHOUN COUNTY IN NORTHEAST MISSISSIPPI...
NORTHWESTERN ITAWAMBA COUNTY IN NORTHEAST MISSISSIPPI...
NORTHERN LEE COUNTY IN NORTHEAST MISSISSIPPI...
PONTOTOC COUNTY IN NORTHEAST MISSISSIPPI...
WESTERN PRENTISS COUNTY IN NORTHEAST MISSISSIPPI...
SOUTHEASTERN TIPPAH COUNTY IN NORTHEAST MISSISSIPPI...
UNION COUNTY IN NORTHEAST MISSISSIPPI...
SOUTHERN LAFAYETTE COUNTY IN NORTHWEST MISSISSIPPI...
NORTHEASTERN YALOBUSHA COUNTY IN NORTHWEST MISSISSIPPI...

* UNTIL 230 PM CDT

* AT 136 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM PRODUCING A TORNADO NEAR WATER VALLEY...MOVING
NORTHEAST AT 60 MPH. AT 115 PM...GRAPEFRUIT SIZE HAIL WAS REPORTED
IN BATESVILLE.

* LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO BALDWYN...
BOONEVILLE...NEW ALBANY...PONTOTOC...WATER VALLEY AND TRACE STATE
PARK.

 

150 kts G2G at 6000 feet AGL. NWS saying they see debris, per WTVA, and the BWER has filled in.

Another line of sups developing over central MS - one NE of Jackson should go nuts soon.

 

HISTORIC PDS Watch 235....

PDS Watch 235... >95% probs for everything.

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 235
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
145 PM CDT WED APR 27 2011

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF

MUCH OF ALABAMA
NORTHWEST GEORGIA
SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI
SOUTHERN MIDDLE TENNESSEE

EFFECTIVE THIS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 145 PM UNTIL
1000 PM CDT.

...THIS IS A PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION...

NUMEROUS TORNADOES
INTENSE TORNADOES LIKELY
WIDESPREAD DAMAGING WINDS
WIND GUSTS TO 80 MPH LIKELY
WIDESPREAD LARGE HAIL
HAIL TO 4.0 INCHES IN DIAMETER LIKELY

THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 80 STATUTE
MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 45 MILES NORTHEAST OF
HUNTSVILLE ALABAMA TO 60 MILES WEST SOUTHWEST OF EVERGREEN
ALABAMA. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE
ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU5).

REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.

OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 230...WW 231...WW
232...WW 233...WW 234...

DISCUSSION...A CLASSIC TORNADO OUTBREAK SITUATION IS DEVELOPING
ACROSS MUCH OF AL AS DISCRETE TORNADIC SUPERCELLS FORM OVER MS AND
TRACK ACROSS THE WATCH AREA. STRONG LOW LEVEL AND DEEP LAYER
VERTICAL SHEAR...COMBINED WITH A MOIST AND MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIR
MASS...WILL POSE A DANGEROUS RISK OF STRONG/VIOLENT AND POTENTIALLY
LONG-TRACK TORNADOES.

AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL
SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 4 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE
WIND GUSTS TO 70 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO
500. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 25040.
...HART

You thought the last watch probs were off the Charts
Just damn...

Tornadoes Probability of 2 or more tornadoes High (>95%)

 

Probability of 1 or more strong (F2-F5) tornadoes High (>95%) 

WindProbability of 10 or more severe wind eventsHigh (>95%)

 

Probability of 1 or more wind events > 65 knots High (>95%)

 
HailProbability of 10 or more severe hail eventsHigh (>95%)

 

Probability of 1 or more hailstones > 2 inches High (>95%)

 

Combined Severe Hail/Wind Probability of 6 or more combined severe hail/wind events High (>95%)

 

The National Weather Service in Morristown has issued a

* Tornado Warning for...
Hamilton County in east Tennessee...
eastern Marion County in east Tennessee...

* until 315 PM EDT/215 PM CDT/

* at 122 PM CDT... National Weather Service Doppler radar indicated a
line of severe thunderstorms capable of producing a tornado along a
line extending from 7 miles south of Gruetli-Laager to Jasper to
Bridgeport. Doppler radar showed this tornado moving northeast at
60 mph.

* Locations in the warning include...
Chattanooga... Whitwell... Lookout Mountain... Signal Mountain...
Harrison... Soddy-Daisy... Martin Springs... Haletown (guild)...
Powells Crossroads... Red Bank... East Brainerd... Middle Valley...
Ooltewah... Sale Creek... Collegedale... Shady Grove and Birchwood

Also, a PDS was issued at 1:45pm CDT
DISCUSSION...A CLASSIC TORNADO OUTBREAK SITUATION IS DEVELOPING
ACROSS MUCH OF AL AS DISCRETE TORNADIC SUPERCELLS FORM OVER MS AND
TRACK ACROSS THE WATCH AREA. STRONG LOW LEVEL AND DEEP LAYER
VERTICAL SHEAR...COMBINED WITH A MOIST AND MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIR
MASS...WILL POSE A DANGEROUS RISK OF STRONG/VIOLENT AND POTENTIALLY
LONG-TRACK TORNADOES.

 

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
200 PM CDT WED APR 27 2011

MSC013-057-071-081-115-117-139-145-161-271930-
/O.CON.KMEG.TO.W.0115.000000T0000Z-110427T1930Z/
TIPPAH MS-PRENTISS MS-UNION MS-LAFAYETTE MS-LEE MS-ITAWAMBA MS-
PONTOTOC MS-YALOBUSHA MS-CALHOUN MS-
200 PM CDT WED APR 27 2011

...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 230 PM CDT FOR
NORTHWESTERN CALHOUN...NORTHEASTERN YALOBUSHA...PONTOTOC...
NORTHWESTERN ITAWAMBA...NORTHERN LEE...SOUTHERN LAFAYETTE...UNION...
WESTERN PRENTISS AND SOUTHEASTERN TIPPAH COUNTIES...

AT 140 PM CDT...FIRE DEPARTMENT REPORTED A TORNADO ON THE GROUND
NEAR COUNTY ROAD 369 AND COUNTY ROAD 469 IN SOUTHERN LAFAYETTE
COUNTY.

That one in particular was producing 3" hail and had a top between 50k and 60k..

.https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=N-IpbglKfJw

 

extremely strong couplet just to the south of Chattanooga moving into Walker Co. Ga. Would not be surprised to see some ground truth on that cell.

 

The cells firing along the prefrontal confluence line in central MS are likely to emerge as the main show over the next several hours. They are moving into a very unstable environment, and have access to the backed surface wind field.

Going across areas that were hit this morning.

 

11 in Alabama on Significant tornado effective layer.

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
209 PM CDT WED APR 27 2011

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN HUNTSVILLE HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
SOUTHERN LIMESTONE COUNTY IN NORTH CENTRAL ALABAMA...
NORTHWESTERN MORGAN COUNTY IN NORTH CENTRAL ALABAMA...
EAST CENTRAL LAWRENCE COUNTY IN NORTHWEST ALABAMA...

* UNTIL 245 PM CDT

* AT 208 PM CDT...TRAINED WEATHER SPOTTERS REPORTED A TORNADO NEAR
CADDO...OR ABOUT 8 MILES NORTHEAST OF MOULTON...MOVING NORTHEAST AT
45 MPH.

* LOCATIONS NEAR THE PATH OF THIS TORNADO INCLUDE...
TRINITY.
DECATUR.
MOORESVILLE.
TANNER.
FRENCH MILL.

 

Really tight, intense couplet on the cell NE of Jackson.
125 kts at 2600.

 

Storm in Jasper went from a shower to hooking echo with TVS in 10 minutes!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Unbelievable environment in MS/AL...Things also destabilizing in Georgia.. just updated...

110 Sig Svr and 12 STP are just incredible. What a historic setup unfolding.

James Spann has a funnel cloud on live stream with the cell just SW of Cullman, Al. Reports damage has been done.

Tornado forming right now

yep just touched down live, that was pretty cool

Edit 2: Just lifted back up

Edit 3 : down again...

 

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0211 PM CDT WED APR 27 2011

VALID 272000Z - 281200Z

...THERE IS A HIGH RISK OF SVR TSTMS LATE THIS AFTN AND EVE ACROSS
PARTS OF NORTHERN AND EASTERN MISSISSIPPI...CENTRAL AND NORTHERN
ALABAMA...NORTHWEST GEORGIA AND SOUTHERN TENNESSEE...

...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS SURROUNDING THE HIGH RISK
AREA....ACROSS MUCH OF THE REMAINDER OF MISSISSIPPI...ALABAMA AND
NORTHERN GEORGIA...THE WESTERN
CAROLINAS...TENNESSEE...KENTUCKY...SOUTHEASTERN
INDIANA...OHIO...PARTS OF WESTERN PENNSYLVANIA AND WEST VIRGINIA...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS SURROUNDING THE MODERATE RISK
AREA...ACROSS MUCH OF THE EASTERN U.S....

..20Z OUTLOOK UPDATE

...A DANGEROUS OUTBREAK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADOES APPEARS
UNDERWAY...AND CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING THAT THIS WILL EXPAND
NORTHWARD FROM THE GULF STATES THROUGH MUCH OF THE OHIO VALLEY LATE
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...

REMNANTS OF THE MORNING MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE SYSTEM AND ITS
ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD POOL...JUST EAST OF UPPER PORTIONS OF THE
LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY INTO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY...REMAIN A
COMPLICATING FACTOR CONCERNING CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL. HOWEVER...
LATEST OBSERVATIONAL DATA SUGGEST THAT THE COLD POOL MAY BE IN THE
PROCESS OF WEAKENING. AND BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTENING ASSOCIATED WITH
THE PRECEDING RAINFALL...COUPLED WITH LATE AFTERNOON INSOLATION AND
MODIFYING LOW-LEVEL THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES ASSOCIATED WITH STRONG
DYNAMIC FORCING FOR UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION...PROBABLY WILL
CONTRIBUTE TO SUFFICIENT DESTABILIZATION TO JUSTIFY EXPANDING
MODERATE RISK SEVERE PROBABILITIES NORTHWESTWARD AND NORTHWARD
THROUGH MUCH OF THE REMAINDER OF THE OHIO VALLEY.

MODEL GUIDANCE...INCLUDING THE LATEST RUC AND 12Z ECMWF...INDICATE
THAT A DEEP SURFACE CYCLONE WILL DEEPEN FURTHER AS IT MIGRATES
NORTHWARD OUT OF THE OZARK PLATEAU...ACROSS THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY
...INTO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES REGION LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT. THIS WILL ACCOMPANY A VIGOROUS MID-LEVEL SHORT WAVE
IMPULSE...WHICH IS PROGGED TO CONTRIBUTE TO STRONG MID-LEVEL HEIGHT
FALLS CENTERED ALONG THE OHIO RIVER...FROM NEAR ITS CONFLUENCE WITH
THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER INTO THE CINCINNATI OH AREA BETWEEN 28/00-06Z.
A 50-70 KT 850 MB JET APPEAR LIKELY TO DEVELOP NORTHWARD TO THE
WEST OF THE APPALACHIANS...AS A 100 KT 500 MB JET STREAK NOSES
NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS KENTUCKY AND TENNESSEE INTO OHIO BY LATE THIS
EVENING...CONTRIBUTING TO STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR SUPPORTIVE OF BOTH
LONG-LIVED SUPERCELLS AND ORGANIZED STORM CLUSTERS. GIVEN AT LEAST
WEAK BOUNDARY LAYER DESTABILIZATION... STRONG TORNADOES APPEAR
POSSIBLE...IN ADDITION TO THE RISK FOR STRONG /STRAIGHT LINE/
DAMAGING CONVECTIVE GUSTS.

 

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
250 PM CDT WED APR 27 2011

ALC043-103-272015-
/O.CON.KHUN.TO.W.0065.000000T0000Z-110427T2015Z/
MORGAN AL-CULLMAN AL-
250 PM CDT WED APR 27 2011

...A TORNADO EMERGENCY IN EFFECT UNTIL 315 PM CDT FOR NORTHERN
CULLMAN AND SOUTHEASTERN MORGAN COUNTIES...

AT 247 PM CDT...TRAINED WEATHER SPOTTERS REPORTED A TORNADO. THIS
TORNADO IS LOCATED 8 MILES SOUTHWEST OF CULLMAN...MOVING NORTHEAST
AT 50 MPH. THIS IS A DANGEROUS AND LIFE THREATENING SITUATION.

OTHER LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO GOOD
HOPE...BALDWIN...WEST POINT...PHELAN...SOUTH VINEMONT...LACON...COLE
SPRINGS...FAIRVIEW...EVA...BAILEYTON...RYAN CROSSROADS...HULACO AND
FLORETTE.
..KERR.. 04/27/2011

looks like its getting stronger, def. multi vortex

Impressive looking tornado on the ground to the North of Birmingham. Multiple Vortex, with powerflashes.

This storm is hauling quite a stratospheric intrusion. It just looks absolutely disgusting on WV.

Unbelievalbe video on ABC 33/40.....large tornado on the ground right now. On camera.

Holy crap that is looking impressive now...looks like 4 or more vortex branches at times.

unbelieveable footage

Very fast motion too not to mention the individual vortices

tv tower just went down, if you missed it on that stream

Caught that! what incredible footage

 

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0629
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0256 PM CDT WED APR 27 2011

AREAS AFFECTED...MUCH OF MS/AL INTO SOUTHERN TN AND NORTHWEST GA

CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 232...235...

VALID 271956Z - 272200Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 232...235...CONTINUES.

PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION /PDS/ TORNADO WATCHES 232/235
CONTINUE UNTIL 00Z/03Z RESPECTIVELY. THIS INCLUDES THE POTENTIAL FOR
LONG-TRACK STRONG/PERHAPS VIOLENT TORNADOES INTO THIS EVENING AS A
SEVERE WEATHER OUTBREAK ONLY INCREASES IN MAGNITUDE/RISK.

AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS/LIFE-THREATENING SITUATION CONTINUES TO
UNFOLD THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS A LARGE PART OF MS/AL...WITH ADJACENT
PORTIONS OF TN/NORTHWEST GA ALSO EXPECTED TO BECOME A CONCERN LATE
THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING. CURRENT OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS...REASONABLY
SUPPORTED BY EXPERIMENTAL HRRR GUIDANCE...IMPLY THAT SCATTERED
SUPERCELLS WILL CONTINUE TO FORM IN BROKEN NNE-SSW ORIENTED
CORRIDORS OF SUBTLE CONFLUENCE AHEAD /EAST/ OF MORE
STORMS/SUPERCELLS THAT ARE DEVELOPING ALONG A PRE-COLD FRONTAL
TROUGH/DRYLINE GENERALLY NEARING I-55 IN MS.

THE WARM SECTOR AIRMASS HAS AGGRESSIVELY DESTABILIZED THIS AFTERNOON
AMID NEAR 70F/LOWER 70S F SURFACE DEWPOINTS...REFERENCE SPECIAL 18Z
OBSERVED RAOBS FROM JACKSON MS/BIRMINGHAM AL...WITH A WIDE/HIGHLY
SHEARED MOIST SECTOR IN PLACE ALONG/SOUTH OF A MODIFYING WEST-EAST
OUTFLOW BOUNDARY /NOW AN EFFECTIVE WARM FRONT/ ACROSS FAR NORTHERN
PORTIONS OF AL/MS. EXTREME LOW LEVEL SHEAR...VIA LONG/CURVING LOW
LEVEL HODOGRAPHS...WILL REMAIN HIGHLY CONDUCIVE FOR SUPERCELLS
CAPABLE OF LONG-TRACK STRONG/VIOLENT TORNADOES INTO THIS EVENING
AMID 0-1 KM SRH OF 300-500 M2/S2 OR GREATER /ESPECIALLY NEAR THE
AFOREMENTIONED NORTHERN MS AND AL BOUNDARY/.

 

Wow some of these tornado warnings stretch half the state in Mississippi

Macon MS debris falling out of the sky

 

Pisgah tornado

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=brSSGUYmeU8

 

Arab tornado

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=J5a_yyh4KbQ

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2uLdIXv8HAI

From a dog's perspective ....  https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=eXM0M67QF2U

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tVoTAfEQ8C0

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rdkTRxHgYgE

[Chinook]

https://weather.com/tv/shows/wx-geeks/video/anatomy-of-an-outbreak-april-27th-2011-pt-1

https://weather.com/tv/shows/wx-geeks/video/anatomy-of-an-outbreak-april-27th-2011-pt-2

https://weather.com/tv/shows/wx-geeks/video/anatomy-of-an-outbreak-april-27th-2011-pt-3

James Spann talks to Weathergeeks (TWC) show about lessons learned April 27, 2011 (This show is from 2015.) The 3rd part of this is more specifically about April 27, 2011 than the first two parts.

[kperk014]

Nice vortex hole on the radar with that cell.
And the cell affecting Arab, AL, 150 kts gate to gate, very likely a large and very destructive tornado ongoing.

every cell when it hits about 50 dbz starts to rotate now matter how small,,amazing

160 kts G2G at 3000 feet AGL.

 

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
318 PM CDT WED APR 27 2011

ALC093-272045-
/O.CON.KBMX.TO.W.0101.000000T0000Z-110427T2045Z/
MARION AL-
318 PM CDT WED APR 27 2011

...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR NORTHERN MARION COUNTY
UNTIL 345 PM CDT...

AT 314 PM CDT...TRAINED WEATHER SPOTTERS REPORTED A TORNADO. THIS
TORNADO WAS LOCATED ON I-22 NEAR WESTON...OR NEAR HAMILTON...MOVING
NORTHEAST AT 55 MPH.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
HACKLEBURG AND TESSNER.

 

Cullman tower cam video will go down as one of the top tornado clips of all time, IMO.

That thing has moments where it looked like Andover and moments where it looked like Xenia. We were watching here at VU and I think all our jaws dropped.

That was some of the best live video I've seen, on a tower cam too! Even though it's not a "huge" tornado, it sure looked like it was rotating extremely violently.

 

Massive supercell with a tornado emergency moving into Pickens county Alabama.....if it stays on current path will move close to Birmingham

This is just unreal, I can see at least 10 discrete cells with hook echos right now...it's hard to keep track of everything that's going on.

All hell breaking loose.

Three large tornados on the ground in north AL right now.

..cant keep up...

327
WFUS54 KHUN 272025
TORHUN
ALC071-089-095-272115-
/O.NEW.KHUN.TO.W.0070.110427T2025Z-110427T2115Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
325 PM CDT WED APR 27 2011

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN HUNTSVILLE HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO EMERGENCY FOR...
SOUTHEASTERN MADISON COUNTY IN NORTH CENTRAL ALABAMA...
SOUTHWESTERN JACKSON COUNTY IN NORTHEAST ALABAMA...
NORTHERN MARSHALL COUNTY IN NORTHEAST ALABAMA...

* UNTIL 415 PM CDT

* AT 319 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING
A LARGE AND EXTREMELY DANGEROUS TORNADO ABOUT NEAR ARAB...MOVING
NORTHEAST AT 45 MPH.

* LOCATIONS NEAR THE PATH OF THIS TORNADO INCLUDE...
HEBRON.
COLUMBUS CITY.
GRANT.
WOODVILLE.
LIM ROCK.
LARKINSVILLE.

 

Tornado on ground in Hamilton, AL.

not good. power out and NOAA radio down from storms this morning

Debris ball.

RIDICULOUS debris ball over Hackleburg

Hackleburg, AL just got rocked.

Hackleburg, AL just got rocked, dBZs in the debris ball spiked to 65 when the tornado went through town. Gut wrenching feeling to say the least.

Hackleburg tornado

 

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
331 PM CDT WED APR 27 2011

MSC017-057-081-095-272115-
/O.CON.KMEG.TO.W.0125.000000T0000Z-110427T2115Z/
LEE MS-ITAWAMBA MS-MONROE MS-CHICKASAW MS-
331 PM CDT WED APR 27 2011

...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 415 PM CDT FOR
NORTHEASTERN CHICKASAW...NORTHERN MONROE...SOUTHERN ITAWAMBA AND
SOUTHEASTERN LEE COUNTIES...

AT 330 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR AND STORM
SPOTTERS WERE TRACKING A LARGE AND EXTREMELY DANGEROUS TORNADO. THIS
TORNADO WAS LOCATED NEAR OKOLONA...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 60 MPH. THIS
TORNADO HAS ALREADY TOUCHED DOWN SOUTHEAST OF HOUSTON. PEOPLE IN THE
PATH OF THIS TORNADO NEED TO TAKE COVER IMMEDIATELY.

LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO AMORY...
HATLEY...NETTLETON...OKOLONA...JACINTO...BOUNDS CROSSROADS...
TILDEN...CARDSVILLE...TURON...CADAMY...CLAY...WREN...BIGBEE AND
PARHAM.

 

JESUS CHRIST! Significant tornado index in the Pickens area at 15.3!

I cannot recall an instance when I could see that many hook echos at one time. Wow...

 

Dr. Forbes on TWC just went with a 10/10 TORCON!

Some of these storms are as large as some counties. Huge.

 

32 Tornado warnings right now. Just crazy!

 

ALC089-095-272045-
/O.CON.KHUN.TO.W.0067.000000T0000Z-110427T2045Z/
MARSHALL AL-MADISON AL-
332 PM CDT WED APR 27 2011

...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 345 PM CDT FOR SOUTH
CENTRAL MADISON AND CENTRAL MARSHALL COUNTIES...

...THIS IS A TORNAGO EMERGENCY...

AT 328 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR AND STORM
SPOTTERS WERE TRACKING A LARGE AND EXTREMELY DANGEROUS TORNADO. THIS
TORNADO WAS LOCATED NEAR UNION GROVE...OR ABOUT 8 MILES NORTHEAST OF
ARAB...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 55 MPH.

OTHER LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO HEBRON
AND NEW HOPE.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A TORNADO HAS BEEN CONFIRMED. TAKE COVER IMMEDIATELY! DO NOT RUN
OUTSIDE TO FIND THE TORNADO...THIS IS A DANGEROUS AND POTENTIALLY
LIFE THREATENING SITUATION!

 

Union Grove tornado

 

Hackleburg, AL just got rocked, dBZs in the debris ball spiked to 65 when the tornado went through town. Gut wrenching feeling to say the least.

...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 400 PM CDT FOR WEST
CENTRAL LAWRENCE...SOUTH CENTRAL COLBERT AND FRANKLIN COUNTIES...

...THIS IS A TORNADO EMERGENCY...

AT 324 PM CDT...TRAINED WEATHER SPOTTERS REPORTED A LARGE TORNADO ON
THE GROUND NEAR HACKLEBURG. THIS TORNADO WAS MOVING NORTHEAST AT 55
MPH.

OTHER LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO
BELGREEN...PHIL CAMPBELL...SPRUCE PINE... ROCKWOOD...
ISBELL...RUSSELLVILLE...CROOKED OAK...PLEASANT RIDGE...
THARPTOWN...NEWBURG...LITTLEVILLE...COLBERT HEIGHTS...MT HOPE...LA
GRANGE...SPRING VALLEY AND LANDERSVILLE.

 

45 years on this earth...and I can only recall one situation like this..and it was the super outbreak. Now, with social media it makes your headspin with more than 10 tornadoes on the ground at times....

At least 40 tornado warnings with some of them as tornado emergencies.

 

WHNT just said Arab AL is requesting ALL ambulances immediately
http://www.whnt.com/

EDIT: They just said a mobile home park was destroyed in Arab with multiple major injuries

Major damage in Union Grove, AL, and pretty much along the entire track of that tornado.

I've been watching his stream for awhile now, What a horrible area to chase in..hard to get a visual and he seems to be a good distance away..If this holds together I would be worried for the town of Scottsboro,AL population roughly 15,000. Lots of trees and power lines down from the view of his cam...Doesn't look good.

 

time to save the current columbis MS radar shot(reflect)
wow

Phil Campbell, AL Pop: 1091

 

Phil Campbell, AL, just took a direct hit from a 160 kt couplet.

Phil Campbel tornado

 

Don't think I can recall seeing this many tornadic supercells in such a small area ever.

Just an unbelievable image.

It's incredible looping GWX. Wow.

Not just that many supercells with tornadic signatures, but that many supercells with strong tornadic signatures.

Yeah, that's just out of control.
This is insane.
EVERYTHING is rotating.

Big cities of Tuscaloosa and Birmingham look to be in serious trouble in the next 1-3 hours.

Yup. Huntsville, too.

I believe there are over half a million people in the greater Birmingham area.

 

Might be seeing the first signs of debris on radar from the 120 kt couplet that just went through Bigbee, MS. Heading directly for Smithville.

the april 26-27 outbreak continues...non stop 36+ hour outbreak....many towns some large taking direct hits

it is likley that current tornadoes are overlapping paths from this morning

western TN and westenr KY now getting unstable...TOR warned storms to the west...still TOR warned storms over eastern TN..and MS/AL I have no words

Btw I don't anyone actually mentioned this, but the PDS watch for Alabama, the probabilities are all >95%. I believe this is the first watch to ever have all >95%.

 

Definite debris ball over Smithville, AL, 140 kt couplet. Wow...

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YVBzaPhLn2Q

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5_JCoW22hA4

 

Scooba getting hit again.

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
351 PM CDT WED APR 27 2011

MSC069-272115-
/O.CON.KJAN.TO.W.0148.000000T0000Z-110427T2115Z/
KEMPER MS-
351 PM CDT WED APR 27 2011

...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 415 PM CDT FOR KEMPER
COUNTY...

...THIS IS A TORNADO EMERGENCY FOR THE WARNED AREA...

AT 351 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS AND STORM
SPOTTERS WERE TRACKING A LARGE AND EXTREMELY DANGEROUS TORNADO. THIS
TORNADO WAS LOCATED NEAR SCOOBA MOVING NORTHEAST AT 55 MPH.

 

 

russelvill..debris ball still going strong.. crazy couplet.. site acting slow for me too.

Everything is rotating!! This is insane and out of control.....everyones thoughts and prayers have to go out to all those affected by this incredible last couple of days.

 

You know it's a nasty outbreak when the current tornado warnings outnumber the svr warnings by at least double.

Agreed, currently 33 separate tornado warnings, many for multiple counties. I don't remember the last time I've seen this. Unbelievable.

 

6 tornado emergencies!

The Phil Campbell tornado has crossed the Tennessee River as a giant waterspout...

Tanner tornado

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0Ro6BcEKu1M

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=k0bCP7hTOYU

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vcst_GGOqfM

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fSYfrIu19m8

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GOwiuV7EqFY

 

Everything is spinning because updrafts have 1000 m²/s² helicity to work with, and plenty of low level CAPE to stretch it. Then add in that 0-1 km shear is 50+ kts and you will have many, many strong and probably more than a few violent tornadoes.

 

Agreed, currently 33 separate tornado warnings, many for multiple counties. I don't remember the last time I've seen this. Unbelievable.

and they out number t-storm warnings 2 to 1..shows how discrete the storms are..

this is the worst outbreak i have ever followed even in the plains and I also recall following the April 1998 AL event from the NIU weather lab , and this is over more populated areas then the plains and this is rare even there,,,,,and if storms stay disrete many more hours of this

history in the making

Interstate 22 with a large debris ball tornado moving very quickly away from Hamilton.

I can't say I've seen anything like this. I experienced the 3-13-90 and 4-26-91 outbreaks in Kansas and I have never seen this many supercells producing large violent tornadoes. More hooks than a bass tournament. BTW I am from Cedar Rapids, Iowa.

Arab, AL in the path of another confirmed tornado on the ground as they are trying to rescue people...just awful.

 

WFUS54 KBMX 272100
TORBMX
ALC057-107-125-127-272200-
/O.NEW.KBMX.TO.W.0106.110427T2100Z-110427T2200Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
400 PM CDT WED APR 27 2011

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BIRMINGHAM HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
SOUTHERN FAYETTE COUNTY IN WEST CENTRAL ALABAMA...
NORTHEASTERN PICKENS COUNTY IN WEST CENTRAL ALABAMA...
NORTHWESTERN TUSCALOOSA COUNTY IN WEST CENTRAL ALABAMA...
WALKER COUNTY IN CENTRAL ALABAMA...

* UNTIL 500 PM CDT

* AT 356 PM CDT...STORM SPOTTERS AND THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
WERE TRACKING A LARGE AND EXTREMELY DANGEROUS TORNADO NEAR REFORM.
DOPPLER RADAR SHOWED THIS TORNADO MOVING NORTHEAST AT 55 MPH.

* THE TORNADO WILL BE NEAR...
BERRY AND BANKSTON AROUND 425 PM CDT.
BOLEY SPRINGS AROUND 430 PM CDT.
OAKMAN AROUND 440 PM CDT.
PARRISH AROUND 445 PM CDT.
JASPER AND CORDOVA AROUND 450 PM CDT.
LYNNS PARK...SIPSEY AND CURRY AROUND 455 PM CDT.

OTHER LOCATIONS IMPACTED BY THE TORNADO INCLUDE MOORES BRIDGE...NEW
LEXINGTON...WEST CORONA...CORONA...GAMBLE AND MANCHESTER.

 

North side of Decatur, AL is going to get slammed shortly.

Phil Campbell tornado is around Hwy 72 in Limestone County, taking out the radar of station WAFF in Huntsville

https://youtu.be/a2alIusfg34?t=329

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Bo4vhjbqeZI

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CW7i4CbYLEQ

 

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
358 PM CDT WED APR 27 2011

ALC107-125-272115-
/O.CON.KBMX.TO.W.0102.000000T0000Z-110427T2115Z/
PICKENS AL-TUSCALOOSA AL-
358 PM CDT WED APR 27 2011

...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR WEST CENTRAL TUSCALOOSA
AND EASTERN PICKENS COUNTIES UNTIL 415 PM CDT...

...TORNADO EMERGENCY FOR REFORM AND LUBBUB...

AT 356 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR AND STORM
SPOTTERS WERE TRACKING A LARGE AND EXTREMELY DANGEROUS TORNADO. THIS
TORNADO WAS LOCATED NEAR REFORM...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 50 MPH.

THE TORNADO WILL BE NEAR...
ASHCRAFT CORNER AROUND 405 PM CDT.

OTHER LOCATIONS IMPACTED BY THE TORNADO INCLUDE LUBBUB AND MOORES
BRIDGE.

 

Fairview AL is about to get hit with a vigorous couplet.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HtXmxXqjY5U

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xme7jLkN7U4

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1mvO7J6ffqE

 

Even the relatively small storms are showing impressive signatures, like this BWER.

 

150 kts on the TVS headed for Bexar, Al 

Arab about to get round 3.

 

If you know people at the University of Alabama, call them NOW!


THE TORNADO WILL BE NEAR...
MANTUA...BENEVOLA AND UNION AROUND 420 PM CDT.
JENA AND 8 MILES NORTHWEST OF KNOXVILLE AROUND 425 PM CDT.
NORTHPORT...COKER AND 8 MILES SOUTHEAST OF LAKE LURLEEN STATE PARK
AROUND 440 PM CDT.
BRYANT DENNY STADIUM AND MCFARLAND MALL AROUND 445 PM CDT.

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
409 PM CDT WED APR 27 2011

ALC057-107-125-127-272200-
/O.CON.KBMX.TO.W.0106.000000T0000Z-110427T2200Z/
PICKENS AL-TUSCALOOSA AL-FAYETTE AL-WALKER AL-
409 PM CDT WED APR 27 2011

...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR WALKER...SOUTHERN
FAYETTE...NORTHWESTERN TUSCALOOSA AND NORTHEASTERN PICKENS COUNTIES
UNTIL 500 PM CDT...

...TORNADO EMERGENCY CONTINUES FOR NEW LEXINGTON...COCNORD...AND
MOORES BRIDGE...

AT 405 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR AND STORM
SPOTTERS WERE TRACKING A LARGE AND EXTREMELY DANGEROUS TORNADO. THIS
TORNADO WAS LOCATED 5 MILES SOUTHEAST OF ASHCRAFT CORNER...OR 10
MILES NORTH OF GORDO...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 55 MPH.

THE TORNADO WILL BE NEAR...
BERRY AND BANKSTON AROUND 425 PM CDT.
BOLEY SPRINGS AROUND 430 PM CDT.
OAKMAN AROUND 440 PM CDT.
PARRISH AROUND 445 PM CDT.
JASPER AND CORDOVA AROUND 450 PM CDT.
LYNNS PARK AND 8 MILES NORTHWEST OF BELOIT AROUND 455 PM CDT.

OTHER LOCATIONS IMPACTED BY THE TORNADO INCLUDE NEW LEXINGTON...WEST
CORONA...CORONA...GAMBLE AND MANCHESTER.

170 kts G2G near Reform.

 

Hate to interrupt the flow of information, but this is the wildest thing I have ever seen...unreal.

 

This is rediculous..

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
408 PM CDT WED APR 27 2011

ALC063-065-107-119-125-272145-
/O.CON.KBMX.TO.W.0104.000000T0000Z-110427T2145Z/
SUMTER AL-HALE AL-GREENE AL-PICKENS AL-TUSCALOOSA AL-
408 PM CDT WED APR 27 2011

...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR SOUTHWESTERN TUSCALOOSA...
SOUTHERN PICKENS...NORTHERN GREENE...NORTHERN HALE AND NORTH CENTRAL
SUMTER COUNTIES UNTIL 445 PM CDT...

...TORNADO EMERGENCY CONTINUES FOR GEIGER AND PANOLA...

AT 405 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR AND STORM
SPOTTERS WERE TRACKING A LARGE AND EXTREMELY DANGEROUS TORNADO. THIS
IS AN EMERGENCY FOR THE FIRST AND SECOND STORM TRACKING OUT OF
MISSISSIPPI. THIS TORNADO WAS LOCATED NEAR NEW WEST GREENE...OR 10
MILES SOUTH OF ALICEVILLE...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 55 MPH.

THE TORNADO WILL BE NEAR...
MANTUA...BENEVOLA AND UNION AROUND 420 PM CDT.
JENA AND 8 MILES NORTHWEST OF KNOXVILLE AROUND 425 PM CDT.
NORTHPORT...COKER AND 8 MILES SOUTHEAST OF LAKE LURLEEN STATE PARK
AROUND 440 PM CDT.
BRYANT DENNY STADIUM AND MCFARLAND MALL AROUND 445 PM CDT.

OTHER LOCATIONS IMPACTED BY THE TORNADO INCLUDE LEWISTON...SNODDY...
PIONEER...RALPH...ROMULUS...FOSTERS...FOSTERS BOAT LANDING...OLIVER
LOCK AND DAM...TUSCALOOSA MUNICIPAL AIRPORT AND STILLMAN COLLEGE.

Geiger got hit by a wedge in the last event.

 

Heading towards Chattanooga! Heads up!

Stats on that cell:
Tornadic Thunderstorm
Jackson County, AL
66 dBZ
Severe Hail: 100% Chance
Hail: 100% Chance
Max Size: 2.50"
Echo Top: 40,000
VIL: 71 kg/m²
Radar Site: HTX

Couplet on the storm headed toward Chattanooga! Maxed out on my scale (110-120 knots outbound!)

I would be prepared to implement whatever safe shelter plan you have here in the next 20 minutes. Best guess is you have a little less than 30 minutes, and the cell should pass just north of Chattanooga, unless it hooks. This is a dangerous storm, with a large debris sig showing up on radar. Keep your head straight and be safe, things are about to get pretty intense for you I am afraid...
 

6 tornado emergencies now.

This is the worst outbreak I have seen in a long time.

200+ kt couplet just north of Moore's bridge, AL?!?!

[kperk014]

https://weather.com/tv/shows/wx-geeks/video/anatomy-of-an-outbreak-april-27th-2011-pt-1

https://weather.com/tv/shows/wx-geeks/video/anatomy-of-an-outbreak-april-27th-2011-pt-2

https://weather.com/tv/shows/wx-geeks/video/anatomy-of-an-outbreak-april-27th-2011-pt-3

James Spann talks to Weathergeeks (TWC) show about lessons learned April 27, 2011 (This show is from 2015.) The 3rd part of this is more specifically about April 27, 2011 than the first two parts.

 

Not sure I saw those. Thanks for posting them!