Madmaxweather Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 GFS is coming next.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Madmaxweather Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 The Polar Express will be coming in tomorrow night and I will likely hop on the express train to the North Pole... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jhamps10 Posted December 22, 2010 Author Share Posted December 22, 2010 GFS is coming next.... and it better show something better.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 one thing we lose sight of is the fact that this is still beyond the nam's timeframe and is just getting it's act together in it's longrange. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KokomoWX Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 From WTHR & Chris Wright in Indy... Right now the Friday/Saturday snow looks like a big one. It wlll begin before Sunrise on Friday and continue through the weekend. I'll have the specific time-line and accumulation amounts at 11pm Channel 13. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_Global_Warmer Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 Still have 3 to 5 on the nam but not great mobile can anyone tell me the surface wind direction on the nam for stl at 30 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Madmaxweather Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 and it better show something better.... A.Does it continue to bow to the "The King" B. Does it stay its course and say screw you KING C. For fun does it show an EPIC blizzard for CMH,CVG,PIT..... I will take A.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stevo6899 Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 From WTHR & Chris Wright in Indy... I think by the time 11 comes he will be changing his tune Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
okie333 Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 Height field amplification can happen quite rapidly, and considering this run of the NAM has yet to phase the PV and eject it NE, low level CAA has yet to increase. Once that does, the 850 low will take little time forming along that thermal gradient. Incipient cyclogenesis will happen very fast and the upper level height field will respond. That EC vortex is playing a role but if you look at the height field it is quite weak overall even though it looks like a deal-breaker. This type of storm development is a great example of non-steady development/rapid amplification of a disturbance. Things can change quite quickly. Last 3 NAM runs all have a PV max of 51-57 somewhere in the run. I am very surprised that it is not initiating the creation of a surface low, and a strong one at that. Let's just say that if any storm has the possibility to surprise, this one's it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jhamps10 Posted December 22, 2010 Author Share Posted December 22, 2010 one thing we lose sight of is the fact that this is still beyond the nam's timeframe and is just getting it's act together in it's longrange. EEEEEXXXXACTLY... that's one of the few things keeping me from joining ya on that bus for the cliff... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 From WTHR & Chris Wright in Indy... He must be looking at the same models Accuweather is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jhamps10 Posted December 22, 2010 Author Share Posted December 22, 2010 and the GFS is now starting... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Madmaxweather Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 In recent history I notice we have shifts inside 54hrs... Thats why I am not on the bus. 2 nights before the 12th snow event it showed nothing then a day later BOOM... We got 6 out of that but 2 days before it showed nada.... So I hold out hope for that very reason. The models will catch something at the last minute I feel it may be that we get 2-4 but hell I will take it at this rate. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 Last 3 NAM runs all have a PV max of 51-57 somewhere in the run. I am very surprised that it is not initiating the creation of a surface low, and a strong one at that. Let's just say that if any storm has the possibility to surprise, this one's it. I was just looking at that while looping the H5 vort map..This is def a tough one to understand and forecast for but fun as always. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 dont know if this was posted but no way this happens with things looking as they do right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 Last 3 NAM runs all have a PV max of 51-57 somewhere in the run. I am very surprised that it is not initiating the creation of a surface low, and a strong one at that. Let's just say that if any storm has the possibility to surprise, this one's it. Remember a trough and/or a S/W is a depression in the height field. While the PV looks intense migrating through the flow field, if you look at the heights alone, it is really not impressive at all. 564 dm heights are not that low, and almost all of that cold air aloft/energy is wasted over the moist baroclinic zone through latent heat processes. All that qpf over MO/AR acts to weaken the disturbance aloft through even more warming in the mid levels. Height rises occur and this PV weakens more. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 Remember a trough and/or a S/W is a depression in the height field. While the PV looks intense migrating through the flow field, if you look at the heights alone, it is really not impressive at all. 564 dm heights are not that low, and almost all of that cold air aloft/energy is wasted over the moist baroclinic zone through latent heat processes. All that qpf over MO/AR acts to weaken the disturbance aloft through even more warming in the mid levels. Height rises occur and this PV weakens more. Expanding on this. Look at the upper level temperatures associated with the PV. Note how cold they are at 500 hpa at 36 hours over Arizona. by 72 hours, after interacting with the moist baroclinic zone, note how much temperatures have risen at 500 hpa. Heights rise and the PV weakens because it is detached from the polar jet stream. The upper level cold front weakens, and therefore the baroclinity of the PV itself weakens and is therefore insufficient to incite strong cyclogenesis on its own. If the northern stream didn't phase with this weak PV, it would slowly "disintegrate" with heights continuing to rise/temps warming until there was just a remnant circulation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 GFS is diving south with the PV. Already looks more like the ECM through 36 hours. Maybe the GFS is finally catching a clue. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheWeatherPimp Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 GFS is definitely looking like the EURO. PV placement looks quite similar to the EURO fwiw. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheWeatherPimp Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 GFS is definitely looking like the EURO. PV placement looks quite similar to the EURO fwiw. Very close to the NAM/ECMWF at the surface too through 78hrs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 East coasters should be getting excited the GFS might drop a double deuce on them this run. The changes are massive through 72 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 I guess it could be worse. Atleast we have stale snow cover for christmas. Actually the snow doesnt even look stale at all (save for some snowbanks near the busy roads), still fresh looking in residential areas, and that is downright amazing considering its been 10 days since the snowstorm with nothing but a slight dusting (19th) and a handful of traces since. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 Note the difference in the 500 hpa height field on the backside of the trough. The CAA is now on a beeline towards the GOM not the east coast. GFS is really catching on this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheWeatherPimp Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 Nail the coffin shut OV folks, ain't no way this is going to produce for us. Tonight's 00z GFS pretty much shut the door. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dilly84 Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 Time to crash your bus buckeye, Doesnt even give us a flurry Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stlirish Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 This could be a christmas snow storm in the deep south?? Thoughts baroclinic based on this run so far? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 Note to self....unanimous model agreement around 100hrs is the kiss of death. The good news is that a storm that doesn't exist at 100hrs may suddenly appear out of nothing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 This could be a christmas snow storm in the deep south?? Thoughts baroclinic based on this run so far? You are in St. Louis? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jhamps10 Posted December 22, 2010 Author Share Posted December 22, 2010 And I'm punting on this one now... I'm giving up... and the only thing I was looking forward towards this holiday season, going away... Thanks alot for ruining my Christmas mother nature... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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