JoMo Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 Thanks for the help. Much appreciated. I was kinda surprised by the lack of WWAs coming out of STL. But I guess it's still a few days away. It's not a certain forecast. The Euro barely throws any precip up that way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 Harry, sorry if you already posted this, but what did the euro ensemble spread look like? The mean is further east of the OP run. Has the system offshore and just clipping the immediate coastal areas ( Delmarva/Coastal NJ/se VA ) and thus a bit east of i95. One or two members had a track right on the coast but most were just offshore and or out to sea. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 The mean is further east of the OP run. Has the system offshore and just clipping the immediate coastal areas ( Delmarva/Coastal NJ/se VA ) and thus a bit east of i95. One or two members had a track right on the coast but most were just offshore and or out to sea. thnx Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jcwxguy Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 sorry off topic, but was the server down a few min ago or was it my connection? on topic, 00z models start comming out in the next 10 to 20min May we all see a start of a north trend Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 sorry off topic, but was the server down a few min ago or was it my connection? on topic, 00z models start comming out in the next 10 to 20min May we all see a start of a north trend I had the same problem. Server was down for about 5 minutes on my end. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ArmyGreens Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 *sits down in self made drum circle of one and begins the northward drum chant* North! North! North! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amos83 Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 sorry off topic, but was the server down a few min ago or was it my connection? on topic, 00z models start comming out in the next 10 to 20min May we all see a start of a north trend Server was down for a few minutes... I had the same problem Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 current live webcam shot from bus Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dilly84 Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 current live webcam shot from bus Id prefer the crown, but wth I'll take some shots of WT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 Id prefer the crown, but wth I'll take some shots of WT yea, disgruntled passenger took the wheel Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 In totally OT news, Chuck Doswell III apparently has his own radio show. This could get interesting. For those not in the know, Chuck Doswell is genious/flamer meteorologist extraordinaire. I wonder if he has any thoughts on the Christmas Storm? Probably not. http://www.highinstability.com/ He is more of a severe weather guy, I got the chance to meet and talk to him in person last year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ArmyGreens Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 yea, disgruntled passenger took the wheel I was gonna say! Didn't see ya as the typical retired florida bus driving type! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IWXwx Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 yea, disgruntled passenger took the wheel I was going to say, nice shirt you're wearing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 24 hour NAM is bringing it on shore farther south and closed compared to 12z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 He is more of a severe weather guy, I got the chance to meet and talk to him in person last year. Haha yeah I know that. In reality, he has done a ton of research outside of severe wx and his interests are far and wide including numerical modeling, data assimilation and filtering, synoptic meteorology, CSI, lee cyclogenesis, and you can go on and on and on. His forthright personality and his ability to back up his arguments are nice in a world becoming overly sensitive to just about everything, IMO. He is quite the synoptician, and I look up to him and enjoy reading his material. It would be really fun to pick his brain someday and discuss meteorology with him. Ask him his thoughts regarding this Christmas storm for the EC, etc. I am sure he would blow us all away. Good reading. http://www.flame.org/~cdoswell/ http://cadiiitalk.blogspot.com/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 current live webcam shot from bus offtopic: Idk man, that can't be me I'm more of a rum guy On topic: Yawn Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 Extrapolating the 87 hour SREF mean, I don't think an apps/inland runner is in the cards. That longwave ridge axis is just too far east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 0Z NAM is slower, but I am trying to determine if it is trending a certain way or if its phase shift problem is rearing its ugly head. The whole height field is tilted W... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
patrick7032 Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 offtopic: Idk man, that can't be me I'm more of a rum guy On topic: Yawn That explains A LOT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stevo6899 Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 That explains A LOT. I guess it could be worse. Atleast we have stale snow cover for christmas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
patrick7032 Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 yea, disgruntled passenger took the wheel After looking at the long range models I might hitch a ride on this bus....either that or go plant myself on 22 left while Lufthansa 442 heavy touches down.....it's either that or crawl inside the engine....but the bus ride sounds more fun.:guitar: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 well i def won't quit my day job. I look at this map and i can't for the life of me see how a coastal bomb gets bred from that. The ridge in front is flatter than a 14 yr old russian gymnist, there's absolutely no semblance of an 850 low, still a good bit of confluence over the northeast, no slp yet and quite frankly the vort in the south doesn't look that impressive... yet... theyre all excited because apparently it matches up with the euro.... hmmm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Madmaxweather Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 I'll hop on the 1AM bus Wednesday night... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkeye_wx Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 This storm is even disappearing for me now. The 00z NAM has removed the snow from east-central Iowa for the first time. What a disappointing tease of a storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheWeatherPimp Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 I'm calling it quits unless something changes on the 00z runs tonight........the fat lady is warming up for her solo Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jhamps10 Posted December 22, 2010 Author Share Posted December 22, 2010 That may be one of the worst failures since that storm in 2008 that the dryslot literally cut across Clay county on should the NAM verify... hey buckeye, make sure next time you draw that screwzone map make sure you put it to I-57.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 I'm calling it quits unless something changes on the 00z runs tonight........the fat lady is warming up for her solo bring her to the front of the bus, we'll put her on the intercom. She can begin singing, "Nearer my God to Thee" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 well i def won't quit my day job. I look at this map and i can't for the life of me see how a coastal bomb gets bred from that. The ridge in front is flatter than a 14 yr old russian gymnist, there's absolutely no semblance of an 850 low, still a good bit of confluence over the northeast, no slp yet and quite frankly the vort in the south doesn't look that impressive... yet... theyre all excited because apparently it matches up with the euro.... hmmm Height field amplification can happen quite rapidly, and considering this run of the NAM has yet to phase the PV and eject it NE, low level CAA has yet to increase. Once that does, the 850 low will take little time forming along that thermal gradient. Incipient cyclogenesis will happen very fast and the upper level height field will respond. That EC vortex is playing a role but if you look at the height field it is quite weak overall even though it looks like a deal-breaker. This type of storm development is a great example of non-steady development/rapid amplification of a disturbance. Things can change quite quickly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 Height field amplification can happen quite rapidly, and considering this run of the NAM has yet to phase the PV and eject it NE, low level CAA has yet to increase. Once that does, the 850 low will have no time forcing along that thermal gradient. Incipient cyclogenesis will happen very fast and the upper level height field will respond. That EC vortex is playing a role but if you look at the height field it is quite weak overall even though it looks like a deal-breaker. This type of storm development is a great example of non-steady development of a disturbance. Things can change quite quickly. well i guess it did on the euro.... we're on the bench (or over the cliff), on this one, but still interesting to watch unfold Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 well i guess it did on the euro.... we're on the bench (or over the cliff), on this one, but still interesting to watch unfold A lot goes back to what I said yesterday regarding the strength of the PV. Given it looks way weaker as we continue to get closer, the GFS just looks less and less likely to verify for the East Coast. Sounds weird but the NAM is far more correct than the GFS, and there is no way the CAA and eventual system cuts eastward towards the coast as a northern solution like the GFS has. Too weak of a PV to incite sufficient cyclogenesis to alter the flow of the CAA. I have a feeling the GFS won't budge much this run either though... It will be a fight to the finish between the ECM/GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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