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Dec 24-25 Snowstorm part 2


jhamps10

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jb had an 11am update and said he's sticking with the euro idea....thinks the models are putting too much emphasis on the front energy. Says weak wave follows arctic boundary to virginia with swath of light snows mw to coast, then coastal forms and heavier snow gets west enough for the big cities.

of course he hadn't seen the ggem yet

As I said...JB could have every model screaming in his face that he is wrong, but he will go against them and say that the model is wrong.

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site is slowing down... tombo:- "hr 66 sub 1008 low about 100 miles east of savannah ga...h5 low over ohio valley..lgt precip southern va south...lgt to mod on coastal carolinas "

That was from the 12z thread, I am not sure other than that.

Meant to copy and past this

Unfortunately, it sounds like the EURO is about to head OTS....

However, does bring a new swath of light snow through the OV.

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STL

MADISON MO-REYNOLDS MO-

INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...LITCHFIELD...VANDALIA...SALEM...

CHESTER...QUINCY...EDWARDSVILLE...BELLEVILLE...HANNIBAL...

BOWLING GREEN...COLUMBIA...MEXICO...JEFFERSON CITY...ST CHARLES...

UNION...ST LOUIS...FARMINGTON

1207 PM CST THU DEC 23 2010

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 6 AM FRIDAY TO 6 AM CST

SATURDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN ST LOUIS HAS ISSUED A WINTER

WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SNOW...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 6 AM FRIDAY TO

6 AM CST SATURDAY.

* TIMING...SNOW WILL BEGIN IN CENTRAL MISSOURI FRIDAY MORNING AND

WILL SPREAD EASTWARD THROUGHOUT THE DAY. FLURRIES ARE EXPECTED

IN THE WAKE OF THE SYSTEM...WHICH WILL CONTINUE THROUGH CHRISTMAS

DAY.

* ACCUMULATIONS...TOTAL SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS WITH THIS STORM

WILL GENERALLY BE BETWEEN 2 AND 4 INCHES...WITH SOME LOCALLY

HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE.

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dvn noon update

BEYOND...ALL ATTENTION REMAINS ON THE ONSET OF WIDESPREAD SNOW

TONIGHT CONTINUING THROUGH FRIDAY. PRELIMINARY THOUGHTS THIS

MORNING SUPPORT THE CURRENT WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE

NIGHT SHIFT. NEW MODEL TRENDS WOULD FAVOR A SIMILAR AXIS OF

HEAVIEST SNOW AMOUNTS AS PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED AND NOT FAR FROM THE

FOCUS OF THE PAST SEVERAL EVENTS TARGETING A NW TO SE AXIS ACROSS

THE CENTRAL FORECAST AREA. THERE ARE SOME INDICATIONS OF EVEN HEAVIER

LOCAL SNOW AMOUNTS ABOVE WHAT HAS BEEN ADVERTISED...ESPECIALLY IF

HIGH SNOW LIQUID RATIOS ARE REALIZED.

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From today's AFD from NWS LOT......

THEN WITH THIS RIDGE AXIS BREAKING DOWN WITH THE APPROACH OF AN

UPPER LEVEL TROUGH TO THE WEST....CLOUD COVER WILL STEADILY

INCREASE TODAY WITH CLOUDY SKIES RETURNING TO THE CWA. AS UPPER

LEVEL TROUGH DROPS SOUTHEAST OUT OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS

TONIGHT...BETTER FORCING ALONG WITH PRECIP/SNOW WILL MOVE INTO THE

REGION. ALL WEEK MODELS HAVE BEEN TRENDING THE BETTER FORCING TO

REMAIN TO THE SOUTH OF THE CWA WITH THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE

CWA TO MAYBE ONLY OBSERVE SOME LIGHT ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL. THEN

THE 00Z GFS COMES LAST NIGHT PAINTING AN ENTIRELY DIFFERENT

PICTURE. STILL A LITTLE EARLY TO LOOK INTO THE FINER

DETAILS/MESOSCALE FORCING...BUT JUST TAKING A GLANCE AT THIS WOULD

INDICATE THE EXACT OPPOSITE OF WHAT HAS BEEN THE OVERALL TREND THE

LAST COUPLE OF DAYS. MID LEVEL FRONTOGENETIC FORCING TO POSSIBLY

REALLY GET GOING CLOSER TO THE MIDNIGHT TIME AND ONLY INCREASE

ACROSS THE CWA TONIGHT POSSIBLY BRINGING AN ACCUMULATING SNOW FOR

THE WEST/SOUTHWEST TWO THIRDS OF THE CWA BY MID DAY FRIDAY. AT THE

TIME...GFS WAS SOMEWHAT OF AN OUTLIER WITH THE 12Z ECMWF AND 00Z

NAM STILL NOT HINTING AT THIS. THEN...THE 00Z ECMWF CAME IN AND

BACKED UP THE 00Z GFS. SO HAVE STARTED TO TREND BACK TOWARDS MUCH

HIGHER POPS AND SNOWFALL TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY. RIGHT NOW IT APPEARS

THAT ADVISORY CRITERIA SNOW MAY FALL FOR THE WESTERN THIRD OF THE

CWA BY FRIDAY. CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING BUT WITH STILL SOME

UNCERTAINTY AT THIS TIME...AND WITH THE FACT THAT IT WOULD BE A

SECOND INTO THIRD PERIOD ADVISORY...HAVE HELD OFF ON ANY

HEADLINES. IF CURRENT TRENDS HOLD...SOME HEADLINE WILL BE NEEDED.

So we shall see what we shall see....

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