Dec 24-25 Snowstorm part 2

[Paweatherguy1]

Until the Euro blinks, it's not going to change and rightly so.

The Euro already blinked though. Philly on South basically saw nothing more than .25 of QPF on it while at 12z yesterday the entire eastern seaboard was getting 1-2 inches of QPF. I would guess that it continues to cut back on QPF everywhere.

Basically, its getting close to game over on the EC.

[A-L-E-K]

The Euro already blinked though. Philly on South basically saw nothing more than .25 of QPF on it while at 12z yesterday the entire eastern seaboard was getting 1-2 inches of QPF. I would guess that it continues to cut back on QPF everywhere.

Basically, its getting close to game over on the EC.

meh, sucks for them.

[Paweatherguy1]

if the missed phase and nonevent comes to fruition....(throw the uk on that bus too now)...the euro will have ended up being the most extreme and ridiculous model throughout this whole tracking event.

Yeah, I mean, I don't want to bash any mets, but it is really time to end the euro love affair, at least for this winter...this is the second time in a two week span that it has given an extreme fantasy storm to the EC.

[buckeye]

Pockets of .5 have been consistently progged for Iowa, so i don't think 6" out that way is at all out of the question.

Ridiculous isn't the word i'd use since it's not a large leap between the two, but it sure is worthy waiting to see who blinks first. The king has been backed up against the wall, guesses for how he swings back at 12z. I say it holds with the coastal and we go into overtime.

fair enough, you could be right. My guess is it totally caves and sweeps a weak low well off the coast....maybe brushing northern new england as it winds up out to sea.

[Madmaxweather]

I notice that the midwestern folks don't take this stuff as seriously. We joke about with bus rides etc. lol... Hey if I get nothing Oh well life goes if I get 1-3 great! Look at this way be thankful for the season of Christmas is really all I care about right now.

[Paweatherguy1]

meh, sucks for them.

Haha....It would have been fun to see a blizz 93 redux happen...I think its just as much fun though to watch them kill themselves over this.

[The_Global_Warmer]

Now no phase? good lord..still gives us 2-4 inches here, maybe 3-4 with good ratios and .2-.25 qpf but still.

[hawkeye_wx]

I'm feeling pretty darn good about this storm. Here is what some 12z models are predicting for Cedar Rapids...

NAM: 0.60

GFS: 0.50

RGEM: 0.40

The models have halted the northeast trend in just the right spot... now they just need to be correct.

[Thundersnow12]

A few people may end up with surprising totals. The DGZ has been consistently projected to be abnormally deep across this area (E Iowa - Nrn IL) (less so further south), with deep (albeit somewhat weak) lift for an extended period of time. In addition, there are a couple of major vort maxes dropping through the flow that will likely lead to a couple bouts of DPVA-forced and weak deformation based snows. Winds will also be light. These are all pretty favorable for high to very high ratios (15:1 up to 25:1 in some cases). So despite rather small amounts of QPF (.2 to .4 in most cases), we'll be looking at some widespread 3-4" amounts and a few pockets of 6+", especially towards NE and E Iowa and perhaps far NW IL.

was looking at the DGZ maps on the latest SREF run earlier, still have to look at some fcst soundings for around here. Gino and I were talking about this last night and you and him seem to be on the same page. think the best totals will be near the river, ofcourse near DBQ (what else is new) but could see us picking up 3" or so around here.

[buckeye]

meh, sucks for them.

pure heartbreak....we all been there but this one has got to be tough pill to swallow (assuming it doesn'tt happen). What makes it worse is the euro showing several runs in a row of what would have been a truly historic event centered over the xmas holiday.

[Madmaxweather]

I just called my bookie and bet that the King will be dethroned and head OTS!

[buckeye]

I notice that the midwestern folks don't take this stuff as seriously. We joke about with bus rides etc. lol... Hey if I get nothing Oh well life goes if I get 1-3 great! Look at this way be thankful for the season of Christmas is really all I care about right now.

Personally i tend to get it over it fast. There's that point where you know it's just not in the cards anymore, sucks for about 2 hours, then you get over it, make light of it and move on. Kinda like when your team loses.

[A-L-E-K]

pure heartbreak....we all been there but this one has got to be tough pill to swallow (assuming it doesn'tt happen). What makes it worse is the euro showing several runs in a row of what would have been a truly historic event centered over the xmas holiday.

Yeah, it's not a done deal for them yet, the NAM and GFS could shift back closer to the shore but the HECS signal is dimming. Agree on the tough pill, it's bad enough when the best model consistently showed a major storm (and the euro is the best), but they also had a couple mets hyping the crap out of it and riling up the weenies.

[Madmaxweather]

Personally i tend to get it over it fast. There's that point where you know it's just not in the cards anymore, sucks for about 2 hours, then you get over it, make light of it and move on. Kinda like when your team loses.

Yeap I felt that way on Sunday when the Black and Gold lost....

[illinois]

Personally i tend to get it over it fast. There's that point where you know it's just not in the cards anymore, sucks for about 2 hours, then you get over it, make light of it and move on. Kinda like when your team loses.

ECers are one trick ponies, sure they get a hurricane every now and again, but snow storms are their big weather events. We have so much weather in the Midwest on a regular basis. Sure we get the occassional drought like last summer and little in the way of exciting weather, at least in these parts, but we can go from winter to severe season, to derecho season, back to fall severe and into winter. There is usually always something happening that is interesting out here.

[The_Global_Warmer]

THey shouldn't get so sweepted up in it. I have learned a lot from local Met Chris Higgins, patience is everything in weather. Look at how weenie even the mets went over that. the euro shows a 1 in 20, maybe 1 in 30 year event all by it self..should proceed with caution.

[tornadotony]

the nam was a clear disaster for the EC.....and trended towards sucky for us. It looks like the northern stream is going to out run the sw and cause the screw job. This makes a ton of sense considering what we've seen this season with the northern branch bullying everything.

i have never seen so much denial as i'm seeing in the general model thread. Im just a fricken weenie and when i saw the nam at about 48 hrs starting to orphan the southern stream i knew it was over. Looks like the rgem is going the same direction.

Im thinking the 12z will finally put the last nail in the coffin for this one. Perfect timing to set aside the model watching and begin to enjoy xmas knowing at least some light snow will be flying.

The northern stream dominating is La Nina climo...and the models...even the mother of all *******s Euro...can't handle that...thus why we see such huge shifts in model data for systems during La Nina winters...in addition to the SE ridge...

[Madmaxweather]

THey shouldn't get so sweepted up in it. I have learned a lot from local Met Chris Higgins, patience is everything in weather. Look at how weenie even the mets went over that. the euro shows a 1 in 20, maybe 1 in 30 year event all by it self..should proceed with caution.

You are so right! I have a close friend that is a MET here in southern Ohio. I am trying to bring him over here because he is pretty darn good. He would be a great asset to our region. Anyway all we can hope for is the best.

[buckeye]

ECers are one trick ponies, sure they get a hurricane every now and again, but snow storms are their big weather events. We have so much weather in the Midwest on a regular basis. Sure we get the occassional drought like last summer and little in the way of exciting weather, at least in these parts, but we can go from winter to severe season, to derecho season, back to fall severe and into winter. There is usually always something happening that is interesting out here.

that's a good point. The other thing is that in the winter the folks around the midatlantic don't get many light snow events. Clippers tend to get shredded by the mountains and LES is non existent. They basically have to rely on a coastal for all their snow. That's why if you look at a lot of DC's snow seasons the spread is crazy....like last year having almost 100 inches, then having years with 4" lol.

[buckeye]

THey shouldn't get so sweepted up in it. I have learned a lot from local Met Chris Higgins, patience is everything in weather. Look at how weenie even the mets went over that. the euro shows a 1 in 20, maybe 1 in 30 year event all by it self..should proceed with caution.

i was really surprised by DT and HM during those late night euro runs. They are usually level headed but they were flipp'n. DT made a post during one of those runs about how he was shaking so much he couldn't type. Talk about an adrenaline crash.

[TimChgo9]

ECers are one trick ponies, sure they get a hurricane every now and again, but snow storms are their big weather events. We have so much weather in the Midwest on a regular basis. Sure we get the occassional drought like last summer and little in the way of exciting weather, at least in these parts, but we can go from winter to severe season, to derecho season, back to fall severe and into winter. There is usually always something happening that is interesting out here.

Couldn't agree more.

In the winter, we always have the prospect of a decent storm to look forward too. In the spring, it's tornadoes and in the summer, severe weather, and that persists even into the fall, so, yeah, here in the MW we have it going on most of the time.

[A-L-E-K]

i was really surprised by DT and HM during those late night euro runs. They are usually level headed but they were flipp'n. DT made a post during one of those runs about how he was shaking so much he couldn't type. Talk about an adrenaline crash.

[Paweatherguy1]

I agree...DT, while he is damm good at what he does, tends to hype. I wonder what JB and HM at accuweather are thinking right now. I'm sure they will hold onto the EC storm idea for at least another day.

[hawkeye_wx]

Boy, the 12z GEM has the northern flow dominating. It actually shows the southern stream H5 low getting squashed down into the central Gulf. The east coast storm has vanished.

[A-L-E-K]

Boy, the 12z GEM has the northern flow dominating. It actually shows the southern stream H5 low getting squashed down into the central Gulf. The east coast storm has vanished.

lolz

[TheWeatherPimp]

I'm sticking with my call/thoughts from last night!

I'm kind of thinking that over the next 24 hours we are going to see the models continue to show a stronger northern stream and a better dump across the midwest. Signs are pointing to some pretty good frontogenesis across portions of Iowa and Illinois with plenty of cold air in place and some good ratios setting up. Not sure that's what the Eastern weenies want to hear because a stronger northern stream would most likely kick this thing out to sea, but we'll see. The EURO may score a coop, but it is going against just about every other model as far as the massive wound up East Coast blizzard goes.

I'd bet on a band of 3-6 inches with isolated 8 inch amounts from Eastern SD, Northern Iowa, Southern Minn and into Northern and Central Illinois with 2-4 inches likely 75 miles North/South of I-70 from Kansas City through Columbus.

Just early numbers, could be way off.

[Srain]

I agree...DT, while he is damm good at what he does, tends to hype. I wonder what JB and HM at accuweather are thinking right now. I'm sure they will hold onto the EC storm idea for at least another day.

Go back and read HM's pinned thread. You'll clearly see he was never fully onboard with the Christmas event. He did state it could be a significant storm, but clearly laid out options for something following this potential event.

[buckeye]

I agree...DT, while he is damm good at what he does, tends to hype. I wonder what JB and HM at accuweather are thinking right now. I'm sure they will hold onto the EC storm idea for at least another day.

jb had an 11am update and said he's sticking with the euro idea....thinks the models are putting too much emphasis on the front energy. Says weak wave follows arctic boundary to virginia with swath of light snows mw to coast, then coastal forms and heavier snow gets west enough for the big cities.

of course he hadn't seen the ggem yet

[buckeye]

assuming the trend this afternoon verifies, the two models that would win over the last 2 days would be the JMA and the nogaps....lol. Especially the JMA which never waivered on not buying into a coastal and was always ots. I always thought this was somewhat of a redflag because the jma loves to show coastals. The nogaps started a trend about a day and half ago of the northern stream outrunning the southern feature and leaving it to die in the western gulf...with no event.

kind of ironic if the euro gets taken to the woodshed by the likes of the jma and nogaps

[Baum]

jb had an 11am update and said he's sticking with the euro idea....thinks the models are putting too much emphasis on the front energy. Says weak wave follows arctic boundary to virginia with swath of light snows mw to coast, then coastal forms and heavier snow gets west enough for the big cities.

of course he hadn't seen the ggem yet

shouldn't you be out stocking up on canned goods I thought he said this thing was going to bury the I-70 corridor..oh wait!