Dec 24-25 Snowstorm part 2

[Chicago WX]

Getting more interesting for some areas. We need more but as is, LAF might be able to squeeze 2 or 3 out of this.

2-3" looking better it seems. Of course I won't be here, nor will you will be. Who will measure our snow?

[LizardMafia]

2-3" looking better it seems. Of course I won't be here, nor will you will be. Who will measure our snow?

Sorry, I won't drive up to LAF to measure..

[Chicago WX]

Sorry, I won't drive up to LAF to measure..

Yeah, and especially considering that bottle of Bailey's you recently bought for Xmas.

[LizardMafia]

Yeah, and especially considering that bottle of Bailey's you recently bought for Xmas.

I can't wait to start working on that tonight..

[A-L-E-K]

I don't think we see any major changes in this area from here on in, last nights 0z runs were a tease.

12z NAM maintains a healthy northern piece, but fails miserably tring to pick up on the partial phase 0z hinted at. Good hit for the usual area from southern minn to cyclone's backyard. Will probably be more of the same after that.

[janetjanet998]

I don't think we see any major changes in this area from here on in, last nights 0z runs were a tease.

12z NAM maintains a healthy northern piece, but fails miserably tring to pick up on the partial phase 0z hinted at. Good hit for the usual area from southern minn to cyclone's backyard. Will probably be more of the same after that.

12z NAM slower with the southern piece like the 06z....no partial semi-phase

[A-L-E-K]

12z NAM slower with the southern piece like the 06z....no partial semi-phase

It's not even close and it's back to what had been its more consistent solution.

the northern piece at 700 is stronger and/or south/quicker than 6z which helps make up for the lagging southern piece, which isn't going to play ball for folks this far west.

[janetjanet998]

It's not even close and it's back to what had been its more consistent solution.

but it is stronger with the northen vortex good news for us

[A-L-E-K]

but it is stronger with the northen vortex good news for us

Yeah a good bit stronger, it's a shame it's gone back to really holding that damn southern piece in the desert for so long.

[Chicago WX]

Still a nice hit for parts of IA.

[janetjanet998]

Yeah a good bit stronger, it's a shame it's gone back to really holding that damn southern piece in the desert for so long.

may not be bad for you.....you may get 1-3 inches of system snow then a long duration LE event...the slower the south piece moves the longer the NNE flow off the lake

[Chicago WX]

Maybe a little LE action for NE IL at 42, looking at the sim radar.

Looks like Fort Dodge, Ames, Waterloo, Cedar Rapids, DVN, to almost PIA FTW with the NAM.

[A-L-E-K]

may not be bad for you.....you may get 1-3 inches of system snow then a long duration LE event...the slower the south piece moves the longer the NNE flow off the lake

The system snow is being overdone this far northeast, as it has been by models all year when we have this kind of flow. Unless we get some kind of partial phase, we won't get that little kick north we need and the table scrape from Minnesota and Iowa will weaken and dive to my southwest. As for LE, it's not looking half bad.

[A-L-E-K]

Maybe a little LE action for NE IL at 42, looking at the sim radar.

Looks like Fort Dodge, Ames, Waterloo, Cedar Rapids, DVN, to almost PIA FTW with the NAM.

I posted it in the LE thread, but i think that might be a mesolow signal given the really weak flow over the bowl end of the lake.

[Chicago WX]

I posted it in the LE thread, but i think that might be a mesolow signal given the really weak flow over the bowl end of the lake.

Looks like it. 2-5" total of synoptic/LE/LES combo sound good for YBY?

[A-L-E-K]

Looks like it. 2-5" total of synoptic/LE/LES combo sound good for YBY?

I'm on record for 2.5" IMBY, almost all LE. Given the similar flow for the northern piece we've seen, i think most of the system snows are shunted well south and west of here. I like 1-4 for a general LE call, heaviest south and far east.

[Northern_IN_Wx]

I'm on record for 2.5" IMBY, almost all LE. Given the similar flow for the northern piece we've seen, i think most of the system snows are shunted well south and west of here. I like 1-4 for a general LE call, heaviest south and far east.

I agree 100 percent. Why go against the seasonal trend? The eastern fringe of these "hybrid clippers" just get eaten up by that blocking low level ridge to the east.

[hawkeye_wx]

12z NAM is the best run ever for Cedar Rapids. The 06z was so weak and dry, out of nowhere, it just didn't look right. I'm not surprised the 12z is back to what it trended toward yesterday.

[Madmaxweather]

uh oh Buckeye! The crane lifting the bus is breaking... We need some help here!

[buckeye]

the nam was a clear disaster for the EC.....and trended towards sucky for us. It looks like the northern stream is going to out run the sw and cause the screw job. This makes a ton of sense considering what we've seen this season with the northern branch bullying everything.

i have never seen so much denial as i'm seeing in the general model thread. Im just a fricken weenie and when i saw the nam at about 48 hrs starting to orphan the southern stream i knew it was over. Looks like the rgem is going the same direction.

Im thinking the 12z will finally put the last nail in the coffin for this one. Perfect timing to set aside the model watching and begin to enjoy xmas knowing at least some light snow will be flying.

[A-L-E-K]

12z GFS picking up where 6z left off, won't be any major changes for anyone in this subforum

[A-L-E-K]

the nam was a clear disaster for the EC.....and trended towards sucky for us. It looks like the northern stream is going to out run the sw and cause the screw job. This makes a ton of sense considering what we've seen this season with the northern branch bullying everything.

i have never seen so much denial as i'm seeing in the general model thread. Im just a fricken weenie and when i saw the nam at about 48 hrs starting to orphan the southern stream i knew it was over. Looks like the rgem is going the same direction.

Im thinking the 12z will finally put the last nail in the coffin for this one. Perfect timing to set aside the model watching and begin to enjoy xmas knowing at least some light snow will be flying.

Until the Euro blinks, it's not going to change and rightly so.

[LizardMafia]

12z GFS picking up where 6z left off, won't be any major changes for anyone in this subforum

I'm fine with cashing out on 2-3"..

[Madmaxweather]

.16 on the GFS 1-3... I'll take it and be thankful for that.

Whats the bus doing over on the I 95 corridor right now? ANy idea?

[snowstormcanuck]

lol, 12z GFS actually spitting out a few hundreths Christmas night imby. Lock it in.

[A-L-E-K]

.16 on the GFS 1-3... I'll take it and be thankful for that.

Whats the bus doing over on the I 95 corridor right now? ANy idea?

judging by how slow the board just got, a weenie just suicide bombed it after the 12z GFS went OTS.

[csnavywx]

A few people may end up with surprising totals. The DGZ has been consistently projected to be abnormally deep across this area (E Iowa - Nrn IL) (less so further south), with deep (albeit somewhat weak) lift for an extended period of time. In addition, there are a couple of major vort maxes dropping through the flow that will likely lead to a couple bouts of DPVA-forced and weak deformation based snows. Winds will also be light. These are all pretty favorable for high to very high ratios (15:1 up to 25:1 in some cases). So despite rather small amounts of QPF (.2 to .4 in most cases), we'll be looking at some widespread 3-4" amounts and a few pockets of 6+", especially towards NE and E Iowa and perhaps far NW IL.

[buckeye]

Until the Euro blinks, it's not going to change and rightly so.

if the missed phase and nonevent comes to fruition....(throw the uk on that bus too now)...the euro will have ended up being the most extreme and ridiculous model throughout this whole tracking event.

[Paweatherguy1]

the nam was a clear disaster for the EC.....and trended towards sucky for us. It looks like the northern stream is going to out run the sw and cause the screw job. This makes a ton of sense considering what we've seen this season with the northern branch bullying everything.

i have never seen so much denial as i'm seeing in the general model thread. Im just a fricken weenie and when i saw the nam at about 48 hrs starting to orphan the southern stream i knew it was over. Looks like the rgem is going the same direction.

Im thinking the 12z will finally put the last nail in the coffin for this one. Perfect timing to set aside the model watching and begin to enjoy xmas knowing at least some light snow will be flying.

Buckeye, I agree. I am a huge weenie too, and reading the Philly thread and general model thread, well, those guys have lost it. They need to start throwing some bans out because there is way too much wishcasting going on and it is getting impossible to follow.

When they act like this, it almost makes me wish that they miss the storms, haha.

[A-L-E-K]

A few people may end up with surprising totals. The DGZ has been consistently projected to be abnormally deep across this area (E Iowa - Nrn IL) (less so further south), with deep (albeit somewhat weak) lift for an extended period of time. In addition, there are a couple of major vort maxes dropping through the flow that will likely lead to a couple bouts of DPVA-forced and weak deformation based snows. Winds will also be light. These are all pretty favorable for high to very high ratios (15:1 up to 25:1 in some cases). So despite rather small amounts of QPF (.2 to .4 in most cases), we'll be looking at some widespread 3-4" amounts and a few pockets of 6+", especially towards NE and E Iowa and perhaps far NW IL.

Pockets of .5 have been consistently progged for Iowa, so i don't think 6" out that way is at all out of the question.

if the missed phase and nonevent comes to fruition....(throw the uk on that bus too now)...the euro will have ended up being the most extreme and ridiculous model throughout this whole tracking event.

Ridiculous isn't the word i'd use since it's not a large leap between the two, but it sure is worthy waiting to see who blinks first. The king has been backed up against the wall, guesses for how he swings back at 12z. I say it holds with the coastal and we go into overtime.