Madmaxweather Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 euro is the only model bringing a closed low this far north i believe... maybe some ull snows with that U pulling that bus out of the ditch yet? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherguru Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 Why is everyone getting so excited over 1-3 inches or maybe a band of 3-6 inches? Yeah its better but still crap. You get excited when you see the Blues. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 U pulling that bus out of the ditch yet? might take a crane Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Madmaxweather Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 Why is everyone getting so excited over 1-3 inches or maybe a band of 3-6 inches? Yeah its better but still crap. You get excited when you see the Blues. Its been then nothing and its on Christmas... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JayPSU Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 Why is everyone getting so excited over 1-3 inches or maybe a band of 3-6 inches? Yeah its better but still crap. You get excited when you see the Blues. Because it's on Christmas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherguru Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 Just drink some southern comfort and take some mota and you will be all good if it doesent snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JayPSU Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 Just drink some southern comfort and take some mota and you will be all good if it doesent snow. I'd be all good if it was 70F and raining, but having a nice bit of snow would be nice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 Looks great, I wish it could phase even more but I will lock it in if we had to take it. NAM-ARW package looks more like the Euro, lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 i'd be interested in seeing totals thru 96.... im sure that ULL is has, (damn it's late lol) got something to squeeze out. and i saw this in another thread Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jcwxguy Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 00z nam was great for eastern nebraska to il , altough is shows less for ia then the 18z, overall coverage in deeper snow increased Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherguru Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 06z NAM at 12hr looks more amplified Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherguru Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 I smell a wetter and furthur north system on the 06z NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 I smell a wetter and furthur north system on the 06z NAM. Not going to happen... Looks like it will be similar to the 0z ECMWF. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherguru Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 Not going to happen... Looks like it will be similar to the 0z ECMWF. s/w energy looks like its trying to hang and hold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherguru Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 Well I see a big difference with the 500mb vortex compared to 0z at 36hr. S/W energy looks like furthur S/W and wind flow doesent look sheared out but more amplified. It might phase furthur west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherguru Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 s/w energy doesent even phase yet at 42hr. Huge difference in the 500mb vortex like its another system. It tries to hold back and not phase with the northern stream yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherguru Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 Southern-stream system doesent wanna phase and cooperate with the northern stream thus weaker system. Anyone who looks at 06z hope just killed it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlord81 Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 Southern-stream system doesent wanna phase and cooperate with the northern stream thus weaker system. Anyone who looks at 06z hope just killed it. Its the 6z nam, go to bed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherguru Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 06z GFS a lot weaker to. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
janetjanet998 Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 06z gfs also looks slower with the southern piece and slower to phase then 00z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 yep, Euro is still king. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
janetjanet998 Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL 402 AM CST THU DEC 23 2010 DISCUSSION SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH SATUDAY NIGHT)... MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS ARE WITH SNOW POTENTIAL TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY...THEN WITH A DEPARTING SYSTEM...A TRANSITION OVER TO LAKE EFFECT SNOW. THEN WITH THIS RIDGE AXIS BREAKING DOWN WITH THE APPROACH OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH TO THE WEST....CLOUD COVER WILL STEADILY INCREASE TODAY WITH CLOUDY SKIES RETURNING TO THE CWA. AS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DROPS SOUTHEAST OUT OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS TONIGHT...BETTER FORCING ALONG WITH PRECIP/SNOW WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION. ALL WEEK MODELS HAVE BEEN TRENDING THE BETTER FORCING TO REMAIN TO THE SOUTH OF THE CWA WITH THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE CWA TO MAYBE ONLY OBSERVE SOME LIGHT ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL. THEN THE 00Z GFS COMES LAST NIGHT PAINTING AN ENTIRELY DIFFERENT PICTURE. STILL A LITTLE EARLY TO LOOK INTO THE FINER DETAILS/MESOCALE FORCING...BUT JUST TAKING A GLANCE AT THIS WOULD INDICATE THE EXACT OPPOSITE OF WHAT HAS BEEN THE OVERALL TREND THE LAST COUPLE OF DAYS. MID LEVEL FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING TO POSSIBLY REALLY GET GOING CLOSER TO THE MIDNIGHT TIME AND ONLY INCREASE ACROSS THE CWA TONIGHT POSSIBLY BRINGING AN ACCUMULATING SNOW FOR THE WEST/SOUTHWEST TWO THIRDS OF THE CWA BY MID DAY FRIDAY. AT THE TIME...GFS WAS SOMEWHAT OF AN OUTLIER WITH THE 12Z ECMWF AND 00Z NAM STILL NOT HINTING AT THIS. THEN...THE 00Z ECMWF CAME IN AND BACKED UP THE 00Z GFS. SO HAVE STARTED TO TREND BACK TOWARDS MUCH HIGHER POPS AND SNOWFALL TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY. RIGHT NOW IT APPEARS THAT ADVISORY CRITERIA SNOW MAY FALL FOR THE WESTERN THIRD OF THE CWA BY FRIDAY. CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING BUT WITH STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY AT THIS TIME...AND WITH THE FACT THAT IT WOULD BE A SECOND INTO THIRD PERIOD ADVISORY...HAVE HELD OFF ON ANY HEADLINES. IF CURRENT TRENDS HOLD...SOME HEADLINE WILL BE NEEDED. UPPER LEVEL TROUGH TO CONTINUE DROPPING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT WITH SYSTEM SNOWFALL TO EXIT TO THE SOUTHEAST. THEN ON THE BACKSIDE OF THIS SYSTEM...LAKE EFFECT SNOWFALL REALLY GETS GOING WITH DELTA TS AND AND INVERSION HEIGHTS SLOWLY COMING UP. ALL MODELS CONSISTENT WITH DECENT LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE DEVELOPING ON THE WESTERN SHORE OF LAKE MICHIGAN BY SATURDAY. THIS ALONG WITH A LONG FETCH OVER LAKE MICHIGAN...WILL PROVIDE A SETUP FOR PERSISTENT LAKE EFFECT SNOW TO BEGIN. SO HAVE BUMPED UP POPS SIGNIFICANTLY FOR INITIALLY THE ILLINOIS SIDE EARLY SATURDAY...THEN HAVE CONTINUED THIS TREND INTO SATURDAY AFTERNOON AS THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW BAND SLOWLY SHIFTS EAST INTO NORTHWEST INDIANA. RODRIGUEZ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
janetjanet998 Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 DSM LONG TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/ WINTER STORM STILL ON TRACK TO AFFECT THE AREA TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY PRODUCING WIDESPREAD ACCCUMULATING SNOWFALL. VERY LITTLE HAS CHANGED WITH RESPECT TO THE EXPECTED EVOLUTION OF THIS SYSTEM SINCE LAST NIGHT. 500 MB SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY OVER MONTANA PRODUCING LIGHT SNOW ACROSS THE DAKOTAS WILL MOVE EAST SOUTHEAST ACROSS OUR AREA OVERNIGHT...FOLLOWED BY A STRONG SECONDARY WAVE ON FRIDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN A PROLONGED DURATION SNOW EVENT. THE NAM MODEL CONTINUES TO BE VERY SLOW WITH ONSET OF SNOWFALL TONIGHT...WHICH JUDGING FROM FORECAST SOUNDINGS SEEMS TO BE DUE TO ITS MUCH SLOWER SATURATION OF THE INITIAL LOW-LEVEL DRY LAYER. ONCE SATURATION DOES OCCUR THERE APPEARS TO BE DECENT LIFTING WITHIN THE DENDRITIC LAYER OVERNIGHT AND WE SHOULD SEE PRETTY DECENT SNOW RATIOS IN EXCESS OF 15 TO 1 AT TIMES...LENDING TO A NICE FLUFFY SNOWFALL HEADING INTO CHRISTMAS EVE. TIMING THE END OF THE SNOW ON FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT IS PROBLEMATIC AS WE WILL BE UNDER CYCLONIC FLOW WITH SUBTLE RIPPLES LIKELY PROVIDING ENOUGH FORCING FOR SOME FLURRIES OR LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...HOWEVER ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL SHOULD BE LARGELY OVER BY LATE FRIDAY EVENING AS THE LARGE SECONDARY SHORTWAVE WILL HAVE CROSSED THE AREA AND START MOVING AWAY BY THAT TIME. WITH EXPECTED AMOUNTS RANGING FROM 2 TO 3 INCHES IN OUR SOUTHWESTERN CORNER TO AROUND 6 INCHES NORTH CENTRAL...AND AN EXPECTED HIGH VOLUME OF VEHICULAR TRAFFIC LEADING INTO THE HOLIDAY...AM RAISING A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE ENTIRE CWA AS DETAILED BELOW. IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT ALTHOUGH SOME SNOWFALL AMOUNTS OF 6 TO 7 INCHES ARE ENTIRELY POSSIBLE ACROSS OUR NORTHERN HALF...THESE WILL OCCUR OVER A FAIRLY LONG DURATION AND THUS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO APPROACH WARNING CRITERIA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 3z SREF showing better probs further north and east than previous runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 DVN IT CONTINUES TO APPEAR THAT THE NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN SHORTWAVES WILL HAVE LIMITED INTERACTION AS THEY MOVE OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS. THE NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE WILL BRING THE ONSET OF SNOW TONIGHT AS IT HEADS EAST/SOUTHEAST. BUT AS FORCING COMES TOGETHER AND ADEQUATE MOISTURE IS BROUGHT WITH THE SYSTEM...SNOWFALL INTENSITY WILL INCREASE DURING THE DAY FRIDAY. SNOW PROCESSES WILL BE DRIVEN BY WARM AIR ADVECTION AND FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING SETTING UP OVER THE FORECAST AREA FOR MUCH OF THE DAY FRIDAY...BEFORE THE SYSTEM SHIFTS SLIGHTLY EASTWARD AND THE AREA COMES UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE DEFORMATION ZONE. THIS IS EXPECTED TO RESULT IN WIDESPREAD ACCUMULATING SNOW ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA FOR MUCH OF THE DAY FRIDAY...BEFORE TAPERING OFF FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST ON CHRISTMAS EVE. THE DURATION OF MODERATE SNOW FRIDAY...AND USING FORECAST SNOW TO LIQUID RATIOS IN THE RANGE OF 12-15:1 CONTINUES TO SUPPORT GENERALLY 3-5 INCHES OF SNOW WITHIN A HEAVIER BAND. IT STILL APPEARS QUITE POSSIBLE FOR A NARROW/ISOLATED BAND OF AROUND 6 INCHES OF SNOW..BUT STILL TOO DIFFICULT TO PINPOINT EXACTLY WHERE THAT WOULD BE. IT DOES APPEAR THAT 2 TO 4 INCH SNOWFALL AMOUNTS ARE LIKELY OUTSIDE OF THE HEAVIEST BAND....GIVEN THE 12+ HOUR DURATION AND SUFFICIENT FORCING. THEREFORE...A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY HAS BEEN POSTED FOR THE FORECAST AREA UNTIL 00Z SATURDAY. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 6z NAM 6z GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 6z runs were a step backwards from 0z, at least on the synoptic front and is back to looking like a DAB event for Chicago outside the far western suburbs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IWXwx Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 I am excited for all of you guys, since the possibility of some snow still exists for you all to my west. But I am in the screwhole no matter what happens. I hope that Stebo has room on that MI bus for an IN guy. BTW, I haven't heard from Harry, so he must be busy driving. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mnchaser Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 LOL@ this year, 2 days ago this storm was a complete miss for me..Its been the story all year..within 36 hours everything changes and once again we are under the gun to take the brunt of the snowfall...Looking like a solid 4-6 inches..2 more inches and we break our record of most snowfall in a month..we are at 31 inches now for December. I'm ready for spring, closing in on 50 inches before January is just insane. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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