Dec 24-25 Snowstorm part 2

[Powerball]

Problem is, I'm not seeing a good pattern after this storm goes through. No blocking = substantial warm up on the way for most, especially if the GoA trough sticks around in this Nina.

Most of us would probably take our chances with no block over strong blocking, though michsnowfreak probably wouldn't like it because he'll lose his snowpack. At least then we'll have a better chance for some decent clippers or double barreled lows.

It's really our friends up in Toronto that are suffering the most either way the pattern flips (relative to average).

[JayPSU]

Problem is, I'm not seeing a good pattern after this storm goes through. No blocking = substantial warm up on the way for most, especially if the GoA trough sticks around in this Nina.

Good, where do I sign for that? I'd gladly take nice, mild days over extreme cold and bone dry weather any day.

[dilly84]

Good, where do I sign for that? I'd gladly take nice, mild days over extreme cold and bone dry weather any day.

Agreed, no point in it being cold when every snow even is going to miss. Might as well be warm.

[JoMo]

At least there's no east coast bomb to screw everything up this run.

[kerbs]

Problem is, I'm not seeing a good pattern after this storm goes through. No blocking = substantial warm up on the way for most, especially if the GoA trough sticks around in this Nina.

Agreed, no point in it being cold when every snow even is going to miss. Might as well be warm.

I'll take the torch and then more winter, as long as spring isn't messed up...

[ArmyGreens]

I take a little nap and then come back to this sourness??? Where's the hope people??? Aren't we in the era of "hope and change"?

[Harry]

Problem is, I'm not seeing a good pattern after this storm goes through. No blocking = substantial warm up on the way for most, especially if the GoA trough sticks around in this Nina.

Depends really. A number of things starting to point to the trough shifting west into the Plains/Upper MW to the westcoast. This though after a brief warm up. The euro weeklies are strongly hinting at this.

I am 99.9% confident that we wont be seeing any kind of extended blowtorch after THIS block has moved off. My *hunch* is that bitter stuff on the otherside of the globe pays us a visit in the next few weeks/month or so. Could be sooner.

[trapperman]

Depends really. A number of things starting to point to the trough shifting west into the Plains/Upper MW to the westcoast. This though after a brief warm up. The euro weeklies are strongly hinting at this.

I am 99.9% confident that we wont be seeing any kind of extended blowtorch after THIS block has moved off. My *hunch* is that bitter stuff on the otherside of the globe pays us a visit in the next few weeks/month or so. Could be sooner.

Euro op is hinting at this by day 10. "Torchiness" for a couple days then a big cold air dump into the northern plains around the 1st. Kind of like the GFS idea until the goofy 12z run...

[IWXwx]

I take a little nap and then come back to this sourness??? Where's the hope people??? Aren't we in the era of "hope and change"?

As George Bush would say, "How's that hope/change thingy workin' out for you?"

Depends really. A number of things starting to point to the trough shifting west into the Plains/Upper MW to the westcoast. This though after a brief warm up. The euro weeklies are strongly hinting at this.

I am 99.9% confident that we wont be seeing any kind of extended blowtorch after THIS block has moved off. My *hunch* is that bitter stuff on the otherside of the globe pays us a visit in the next few weeks/month or so. Could be sooner.

Would that be a setup for a "bowling ball" type system?

[csnavywx]

Depends really. A number of things starting to point to the trough shifting west into the Plains/Upper MW to the westcoast. This though after a brief warm up. The euro weeklies are strongly hinting at this.

I am 99.9% confident that we wont be seeing any kind of extended blowtorch after THIS block has moved off. My *hunch* is that bitter stuff on the otherside of the globe pays us a visit in the next few weeks/month or so. Could be sooner.

Build/merge the E. Siberian/Bering ridge with the Scandinavian ridge, and you've got yourself a deal, after a good 3-5 day warm-up and 1-2 systems into MN/Canada. Otherwise, that's one hell of a Pac fire hose with not much in the way of quality cold air to work with for a while.

[Stebo]

Sorry I haven't been on today I have been out driving

[csnavywx]

As George Bush would say, "How's that hope/change thingy workin' out for you?"

Would that be a setup for a "bowling ball" type system?

SW flow aloft. Good moisture feed from the GoM in these setups, typically. But you fight warm air unless there's a good source/supply of cold. "Bowling balls" are not as common in Ninas, due to the weak STJ.

[jbcmh81]

Depends really. A number of things starting to point to the trough shifting west into the Plains/Upper MW to the westcoast. This though after a brief warm up. The euro weeklies are strongly hinting at this.

I am 99.9% confident that we wont be seeing any kind of extended blowtorch after THIS block has moved off. My *hunch* is that bitter stuff on the otherside of the globe pays us a visit in the next few weeks/month or so. Could be sooner.

Agreed.

[JoMo]

Depends really. A number of things starting to point to the trough shifting west into the Plains/Upper MW to the westcoast. This though after a brief warm up. The euro weeklies are strongly hinting at this.

I am 99.9% confident that we wont be seeing any kind of extended blowtorch after THIS block has moved off. My *hunch* is that bitter stuff on the otherside of the globe pays us a visit in the next few weeks/month or so. Could be sooner.

The weeklies that Brett Anderson has out on Dec 17th? or has there been another Weekly run?

http://www.accuweather.com/blogs/anderson/story/43158/weather-pattern-clues-into-mid-january.asp

[The_Global_Warmer]

SW flow aloft. Good moisture feed from the GoM in these setups, typically. But you fight warm air unless there's a good source/supply of cold. "Bowling balls" are not as common in Ninas, due to the weak STJ.

This is killing me. this system has the potential with a strong h5 vort in the southern stream with a partial phase to have a freaking wall of snow from I70 to I80. now it's barely mustering the strengh to give STL a decent winter event. I hope the trends weak and south stop here or this will be another great chance and near miss.

[baroclinic_instability]

In totally OT news, Chuck Doswell III apparently has his own radio show. This could get interesting. For those not in the know, Chuck Doswell is genious/flamer meteorologist extraordinaire.

I wonder if he has any thoughts on the Christmas Storm? Probably not.

http://www.highinstability.com/

[JoMo]

This is killing me. this system has the potential with a strong h5 vort in the southern stream with a partial phase to have a freaking wall of snow from I70 to I80. now it's barely mustering the strengh to give STL a decent winter event. I hope the trends weak and south stop here or this will be another great chance and near miss.

It's the N Stream that's killing it. It's perfectly happy producing a ton of precip until the N Stream shuts it down.

[Omahawx]

Can someone link me to the GFS / nam ensembles?

[JoMo]

Can someone link me to the GFS / nam ensembles?

http://www.meteo.psu.edu/ewall/ewallmref.html

NAM ensemble is basically the SREF:

http://www.meteo.psu.edu/ewall/ewallsref.html

[jcwxguy]

Can someone link me to the GFS / nam ensembles?

looks bad for us omahawx, better for you then me but

i am almost ready to raise the white flag Nam/euro/gfs/sref all south. 1 to 2 inches(optimisic) lol of course, could still change with a few days before it hits. Hope for a shift north somehow

[Indystorm]

In totally OT news, Chuck Doswell III apparently has his own radio show. This could get interesting. For those not in the know, Chuck Doswell is genious/flamer meteorologist extraordinaire.

I wonder if he has any thoughts on the Christmas Storm? Probably not.

http://www.highinstability.com/

The website says the show returns Jan. 19, 2011. When I say the word tornado I think Doswell. Snow...not so much. And at present I think our Christmas storm will stay south.

[IWXwx]

SW flow aloft. Good moisture feed from the GoM in these setups, typically. But you fight warm air unless there's a good source/supply of cold. "Bowling balls" are not as common in Ninas, due to the weak STJ.

Gotcha. Thanks for answering.

[Harry]

The weeklies that Brett Anderson has out on Dec 17th? or has there been another Weekly run?

http://www.accuweather.com/blogs/anderson/story/43158/weather-pattern-clues-into-mid-january.asp

That would be about what they are showing. I get/sell them myself.

[Indystorm]

With -3 at Glasgow MT and 81 at DFW it seems such a shame to waste all that energy without the development of a storm to hit the Midwest.

[Macintosh]

Anybody have info on the St. Louis area? Been reading the discos from STL and PAH and they are very noncomittal on anything specific. Can't find any good EURO plots that are useful and of course free. Any help would be appreciated.

[buckeye]

Depends really. A number of things starting to point to the trough shifting west into the Plains/Upper MW to the westcoast. This though after a brief warm up. The euro weeklies are strongly hinting at this.

I am 99.9% confident that we wont be seeing any kind of extended blowtorch after THIS block has moved off. My *hunch* is that bitter stuff on the otherside of the globe pays us a visit in the next few weeks/month or so. Could be sooner.

Harry, sorry if you already posted this, but what did the euro ensemble spread look like?

[oldlogin]

Mike Ryan's long term AFD out of IND is worth the read...I got no dog in this hunt this time---

Edit----But I wish all the best of luck

[Guru Of Reason]

Anybody have info on the St. Louis area? Been reading the discos from STL and PAH and they are very noncomittal on anything specific. Can't find any good EURO plots that are useful and of course free. Any help would be appreciated.

It is now generally thought that the system will be mostly snow in St. Louis. Right now, STLers are hoping for a NW trend to put us in the heaviest snow band. But it looks like either a high end WWA event, or a WSW event.

[weatherguru]

SW flow aloft. Good moisture feed from the GoM in these setups, typically. But you fight warm air unless there's a good source/supply of cold. "Bowling balls" are not as common in Ninas, due to the weak STJ.

That system well of the coast of New England looks like it will surpress this system furthur south.

[Macintosh]

It is now generally thought that the system will be mostly snow in St. Louis. Right now, STLers are hoping for a NW trend to put us in the heaviest snow band. But it looks like either a high end WWA event, or a WSW event.

Thanks for the help. Much appreciated. I was kinda surprised by the lack of WWAs coming out of STL. But I guess it's still a few days away.