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Dec 24-25 Snowstorm part 2

jhamps10

By jhamps10,
in Central/Western States

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buckeye

buckeye

Posted
Posted

The 18z RGEM has a bigger phase, the NAM and GFS both trend better with the phase and now have more QPF further north.

the GFS has 4+ inches here.

if this trend continues that is great news.

quite honestly friv, i always thought st. louis was in a good spot with this. I don't see how you get that kind of energy coming in from the sw and additional diving in from the n. plains and st. louis not get something decent out of it. We're further east so we have to depend on the moisture holding on before the coastal takes over.

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jbcmh81

jbcmh81

Posted
Posted

I just want to say that, for the most part, it's been a pleasure discussing wx with you all and there are no hard feelings on my end. That said, it is time for me to bow out after 6 years on Eastern/American. The benefits just no longer outweigh the negatives. Hope you all get a good snow and take care.

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snowstormcanuck

snowstormcanuck

Posted
Posted

I just want to say that, for the most part, it's been a pleasure discussing wx with you all and there are no hard feelings on my end. That said, it is time for me to bow out after 6 years on Eastern/American. The benefits just no longer outweigh the negatives. Hope you all get a good snow and take care.

:facepalm: @ the melodrama

Alek is trolling your ass and you're playing right into him. Just ignore it and carry on.

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BowMeHunter

BowMeHunter

Posted
Posted

18z GFS run has had a bias of being north during this storm... 0z would always yank it south.. if 0z euro and GFS show what the 18z has I'd start to raise my eyebrow if I lived north of the southern half of Illinois for something juicer... I haven't read the thread or looked at the gfs or euro since last night so I don't know if there is a trend north going on or not either.

Sure would be nice to get those with no snow (not sure what the snow cover is like in st louis and south? I think there is some snow down there though.) on the ground back in to the game and hopefully beau and his area can stay all snow and avoid a freezing rain headache

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jbcmh81

jbcmh81

Posted
Posted

:facepalm: @ the melodrama

Alek is trolling your ass and you're playing right into him. Just ignore it and carry on.

I would not let a single poster drive me away, please. I've seen a hell of a lot worse over the years. This has been building for some time now, and the latest mess just provided the catalyst I needed to really make this decision. It's just no longer fun.

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ukrocks

ukrocks

Posted
Posted

18z GFS run has had a bias of being north during this storm... 0z would always yank it south.. if 0z euro and GFS show what the 18z has I'd start to raise my eyebrow if I lived north of the southern half of Illinois for something juicer... I haven't read the thread or looked at the gfs or euro since last night so I don't know if there is a trend north going on or not either.

Sure would be nice to get those with no snow (not sure what the snow cover is like in st louis and south? I think there is some snow down there though.) on the ground back in to the game and hopefully beau and his area can stay all snow and avoid a freezing rain headache

Snow cover in Kentucky is gone with the last system. However it looks like temperature will not be a problem in these parts. I find it hard to believe that we would have issues with precip type if we can get in the game. It's frustrating to see those on the east coast to get hit over and over again. I'd like to see a storm produce over 6+ inches of snow. It has been since 2004 since I saw one.

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A-L-E-K

A-L-E-K

Posted
Posted

18z GFS run has had a bias of being north during this storm... 0z would always yank it south.. if 0z euro and GFS show what the 18z has I'd start to raise my eyebrow if I lived north of the southern half of Illinois for something juicer... I haven't read the thread or looked at the gfs or euro since last night so I don't know if there is a trend north going on or not either.

Sure would be nice to get those with no snow (not sure what the snow cover is like in st louis and south? I think there is some snow down there though.) on the ground back in to the game and hopefully beau and his area can stay all snow and avoid a freezing rain headache

It does seem to be doing that. That NAM has came in a little more impressive further north as well. Things are looking up for the hampster.

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Thundersnow12

Thundersnow12

Posted
Posted

That Alek and others are even allowed to get away with doing it shows a serious lack of moderation imo, but whatever.

Easy.....there isn't nothing wrong with Alek, except his drinking during events lol :pepsi:

that said, there has been quite the trend in qpf the past few runs on the north side with eastern IA and the northern half of IL cashing in on some snow with this.

as Bow said, we will have to wait till the 0z runs

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KeithinEKY

KeithinEKY

Posted
Posted

Snow cover in Kentucky is gone with the last system. However it looks like temperature will not be a problem in these parts. I find it hard to believe that we would have issues with precip type if we can get in the game. It's frustrating to see those on the east coast to get hit over and over again. I'd like to see a storm produce over 6+ inches of snow. It has been since 2004 since I saw one.

Snow cover here on my side of the state has just about vanished. Today's above freezing temps has really done a number. I have less than an inch left, but its almost all ice.

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Thundersnow12

Thundersnow12

Posted
Posted

DVN

MAIN FOCUS CONTINUES TO BE ACCUMULATING SNOW THURS NGT THROUGH

CHRISTMAS EVE. 12Z MODEL INITIALIZATION OFFERS NO GLARING ISSUES.

BOTH ENERGY SOURCES OF INTEREST THOUGH STILL OFFSHORE (BC COAST AND

SOCAL)... THUS WILL TAKE ANOTHER 12 HRS TO BE BETTER SAMPLED BY

RAOBS. WITH THIS IN MIND... THE 12Z NAM IS OUTLIER BEING DRIER AND

FURTHEST SOUTHWEST WITH QPF... AND DISCARDED AS MODEL UNREALISTIC AT

36-42 HRS INDICATING THE BUILDING OF HEIGHTS ALOFT OVER THE DAKOTAS

WITH NEARLY STATIONARY MID LEVEL WAVE INDICATED NEAR MT AND ND/SD

BORDERS. THEREFORE... FCST SIDED TOWARD BLEND OF GEM/UK/ECM/GFS...

WHICH CONTINUE TO SHOW SPLIT FLOW WITH AREA UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF

NORTHERN STREAM AS ENERGY COMING INTO THE PAC NW WILL FLATTEN

RIDGING IN PLAINS AND THEN DIVE E/SE THROUGH THE MIDWEST BY LATE

CHRISTMAS EVE. MEANWHILE... ROBUST ENERGY IN SOUTHERN STREAM JUST

OFF CA COAST WILL MOVE EWD AND REMAIN UNPHASED WITH NORTHERN STREAM

ENERGY... WHICH IS CRITICAL AND MEANS AREA AVOIDS POTENTIAL FOR

MAJOR WINTER STORM. FOLKS ON THE EAST COAST THOUGH NOT LOOKING AS

FORTUNATE THOUGH AS SUGGESTIONS OF PHASING TO OCCUR OVER THE DEEP

SOUTH... FORMING POTENT NOR'EASTER LATE IN WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT

WEEK.

THURS NGT-CHRISTMAS EVE... FORCING MECHANISMS FOR SNOW WILL COME

INITIALLY FROM LOW/MID LEVEL WARM ADVECTION AND FRONTOGENETICAL

FORCING... WHICH LOOKS TO PIVOT AND STALL IN PORTIONS OF AREA INTO

CHRISTMAS DAY WHILE GRADUALLY WEAKENING AHEAD OF NEXT BOUT OF FORCING

ATTENDANT TO APPROACHING MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE. BETWEEN THESE FORCING

MECHANISMS... MOST IF NOT ALL OF THE AREA IS EXPECTED TO SEE SOME

ACCUMULATING SNOW. AMOUNTS AND LOCATION OF HEAVIEST THOUGH STILL

SOMEWHAT IN QUESTION. GFS QPF OF 0.5 TO 0.6 INCH WOULD BE MORE THAN

WE SAW WITH PAST SYSTEM EARLIER THIS WEEK... AND SEEMS A BIT

AGGRESSIVE PER MAGNITUDE OF FORCING. MODEL IS ALSO A BIT HIGHER

ON SFC MOISTURE WITH DEWPTS IN U20S/NR 30 AND FEEL THIS TOO BIT

OVERDONE AND THUS FAVORED SLIGHTLY DRIER BLEND OF GEM/ECM/UK WITH

DRIER INFLUENCE FROM DEPARTING RIDGE... WITH ROUGHLY 0.25 TO 0.35

BEING MAX QPF. THUS... USING SLR OF ROUGHLY 12-14:1 SUPPORTS 3-5

INCHES IN GENERAL WITH HEAVIEST BAND. GARCIA METHOD ADJUSTED FOR

GREATER THAN 12 HR PD OF LIFT WOULD SUPPORT POTENTIAL FOR FEW 6 INCH

AMOUNTS IN HEAVIEST BAND. OUTSIDE OF THE HEAVY BAND EXPECT GENERAL

1-3 INCH AMOUNTS. WHERE THE HEAVIEST BAND SETS UP IS STILL UNCERTAIN

AS INTERNAL MODEL SIGNALS VARY... BUT TREND APPEARS TO

BE FURTHER NORTH AND GENERALLY IMPLIED KCID-KMLI AXIS +/- 50 MILES

RESIDING IN 925-850MB CONVERGENT AXIS LONGEST AND JUST LEFT OF

850 CIRCULATION SHOW TO DIVE SOUTH THROUGH WESTERN IA CHRISTMAS EVE

DAY.

BOTTOM LINE... LOOKS AS THOUGH MUCH OF AREA WILL SEE SOME

ACCUMULATING SNOW... INITIALLY THURS EVE INTO OVRNGT POSSIBLY

FOCUSED FROM QUAD CITIES NWWD... BUT IN TIME OVERSPREADING AREAS TO

SOUTH WITH MID LEVEL WAVE PASSING AND INVERTED SFC TROUGH SLIDING

JUST TO S/W OF CWA. MAX AMOUNTS OF 3-5 INCHES WITH LOCAL 6 INCH

POSSIBLE WITH ADVISORY LIKELY NEEDED FOR PORTIONS OF CWA... WITH

HEAVIEST AXIS NEEDING TO BE REFINED IN LATER FCSTS

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Baum

Baum

Posted
Posted

you should also point out this from LOT:

NAM...WHICH SEEMED AN OUTLIER

LAST WEEK AND ENDED UP PERFORMING QUITE WELL ONCE AGAIN KEEPS

MID-LEVELS OF ATMOSPHERE DRY AND WOULD SUGGEST THAT PRECIPITATION

STAYS OUTSIDE CWA ALTOGETHER. MEANWHILE...SREF GUIDANCE GENERALLY

SHOWS THE SOUTHWEST PORTION OF THE CWA GETTING UP TO AN INCH...WHILE

ONLY A COUPLE MEMBERS ARE IN THE 1 TO 3 INCH RANGE. GFS AND ECMWF

ARE WETTEST...SUGGESTING UPWARDS OF 4 INCHES ACROSS SOUTHWEST.

TRYING TO BE A BIT CONSERVATIVE ON SNOW AMOUNTS IN FACE OF THE MORE

PESSIMISTIC GFS AND ONLY SLIGHTLY LESS PESSIMISTIC ECMWF.

Looks to me like it has been all of December we will be battling dry air and areas west and south may get into some fluff again...but enjoy this cause after is ?????:yikes:

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