buckeye Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 the interesting thing that is kinda lost with this storm is the fact that it's still 4-5 days out...it's been watched and analyzed for days now and yet its just beginning to come together in the later nam panels. The nam is still fairly disjointed with all the upper energy but has made a better attempt at cleaning up the mess at 18z. This alone shifted more precip further north into our area. Who knows, maybe we can all get back to squeezing out an inch or two by the time this verifies. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_Global_Warmer Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 18z RGEM has a much better phase. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 Didn't that happen this time last year? LOL True, but that one had a mountain of heights along the east coast it was running into. Nowhere to go but north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 This is why I haven't hopped on that bus. I am quite young but I know the history with these types of situations that the models will "Catch" something inside 48hrs and right now they are sniffing it but haven't caught it. I could be barking up the wrong tree here but I think the EURO especially has put too much emphasis on the southern energy the whole time. The GFS caught it and NAM is catching on. The CMC is flip flopping but it sniffs it. It would be nice to see a phase quick enough to pull this sucker inland instead of a coastal. Likely not going to happen! yep very very unlikely. The one thing that hasn't changed is the ridge axis out west....the location has been pretty solidly and consistently forecasted by a lot of the models and it's way too far east for us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ArmyGreens Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 Yeah, i'm trying to put this one in the rearview and enjoy it for what it is. This thing sure looks like a crippler in the making for the EC. ? Anyway good to see you have not taken drastic measures Buckeye! lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
janetjanet998 Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 dvn LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY MAIN FOCUS CONTINUES TO BE ACCUMULATING SNOW THURS NGT THROUGH CHRISTMAS EVE. 12Z MODEL INITIALIZATION OFFERS NO GLARING ISSUES. BOTH ENERGY SOURCES OF INTEREST THOUGH STILL OFFSHORE (BC COAST AND SOCAL)... THUS WILL TAKE ANOTHER 12 HRS TO BE BETTER SAMPLED BY RAOBS. WITH THIS IN MIND... THE 12Z NAM IS OUTLIER BEING DRIER AND FURTHEST SOUTHWEST WITH QPF... AND DISCARDED AS MODEL UNREALISTIC AT 36-42 HRS INDICATING THE BUILDING OF HEIGHTS ALOFT OVER THE DAKOTAS WITH NEARLY STATIONARY MID LEVEL WAVE INDICATED NEAR MT AND ND/SD BORDERS. THEREFORE... FCST SIDED TOWARD BLEND OF GEM/UK/ECM/GFS... WHICH CONTINUE TO SHOW SPLIT FLOW WITH AREA UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF NORTHERN STREAM AS ENERGY COMING INTO THE PAC NW WILL FLATTEN RIDGING IN PLAINS AND THEN DIVE E/SE THROUGH THE MIDWEST BY LATE CHRISTMAS EVE. MEANWHILE... ROBUST ENERGY IN SOUTHERN STREAM JUST OFF CA COAST WILL MOVE EWD AND REMAIN UNPHASED WITH NORTHERN STREAM ENERGY... WHICH IS CRITICAL AND MEANS AREA AVOIDS POTENTIAL FOR MAJOR WINTER STORM. FOLKS ON THE EAST COAST THOUGH NOT LOOKING AS FORTUNATE THOUGH AS SUGGESTIONS OF PHASING TO OCCUR OVER THE DEEP SOUTH... FORMING POTENT NOR'EASTER LATE IN WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK. THURS NGT-CHRISTMAS EVE... FORCING MECHANISMS FOR SNOW WILL COME INITIALLY FROM LOW/MID LEVEL WARM ADVECTION AND FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING... WHICH LOOKS TO PIVOT AND STALL IN PORTIONS OF AREA INTO CHRISTMAS DAY WHILE GRADUALLY WEAKENING AHEAD OF NEXT BOUT OF FORCING ATTENDANT TO APPROACHING MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE. BETWEEN THESE FORCING MECHANISMS... MOST IF NOT ALL OF THE AREA IS EXPECTED TO SEE SOME ACCUMULATING SNOW. AMOUNTS AND LOCATION OF HEAVIEST THOUGH STILL SOMEWHAT IN QUESTION. GFS QPF OF 0.5 TO 0.6 INCH WOULD BE MORE THAN WE SAW WITH PAST SYSTEM EARLIER THIS WEEK... AND SEEMS A BIT AGGRESSIVE PER MAGNITUDE OF FORCING. MODEL IS ALSO A BIT HIGHER ON SFC MOISTURE WITH DEWPTS IN U20S/NR 30 AND FEEL THIS TOO BIT OVERDONE AND THUS FAVORED SLIGHTLY DRIER BLEND OF GEM/ECM/UK WITH DRIER INFLUENCE FROM DEPARTING RIDGE... WITH ROUGHLY 0.25 TO 0.35 BEING MAX QPF. THUS... USING SLR OF ROUGHLY 12-14:1 SUPPORTS 3-5 INCHES IN GENERAL WITH HEAVIEST BAND. GARCIA METHOD ADJUSTED FOR GREATER THAN 12 HR PD OF LIFT WOULD SUPPORT POTENTIAL FOR FEW 6 INCH AMOUNTS IN HEAVIEST BAND. OUTSIDE OF THE HEAVY BAND EXPECT GENERAL 1-3 INCH AMOUNTS. WHERE THE HEAVIEST BAND SETS UP IS STILL UNCERTAIN AS INTERNAL MODEL SIGNALS VARY... BUT TREND APPEARS TO BE FURTHER NORTH AND GENERALLY IMPLIED KCID-KMLI AXIS +/- 50 MILES RESIDING IN 925-850MB CONVERGENT AXIS LONGEST AND JUST LEFT OF 850 CIRCULATION SHOW TO DIVE SOUTH THROUGH WESTERN IA CHRISTMAS EVE DAY. BOTTOM LINE... LOOKS AS THOUGH MUCH OF AREA WILL SEE SOME ACCUMULATING SNOW... INITIALLY THURS EVE INTO OVRNGT POSSIBLY FOCUSED FROM QUAD CITIES NWWD... BUT IN TIME OVERSPREADING AREAS TO SOUTH WITH MID LEVEL WAVE PASSING AND INVERTED SFC TROUGH SLIDING JUST TO S/W OF CWA. MAX AMOUNTS OF 3-5 INCHES WITH LOCAL 6 INCH POSSIBLE WITH ADVISORY LIKELY NEEDED FOR PORTIONS OF CWA... WITH HEAVIEST AXIS NEEDING TO BE REFINED IN LATER FCSTS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 ? Anyway good to see you have not taken drastic measures Buckeye! lol ???you lost me army...lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Madmaxweather Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 yep very very unlikely. The one thing that hasn't changed is the ridge axis out west....the location has been pretty solidly and consistently forecasted by a lot of the models and it's way too far east for us. Yeap! 18z GFS is holdings its own with that northern energy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 I noticed the discussion about breaking up the area last night, posted this in the OT section MSP has a good idea though, that a split would make sense, maybe group Ohio in with W PA/NY, West Virgina, and KY/TN. Solves this issue quickly. This is similar to Hoosier's idea, and would fit the pattern for weather, as most weather that directly effects those areas do not effects IL/MI west, or it effects IL/MI west first then the OV later. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
janetjanet998 Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 GFS looks more phased/more stronger with north piece then 12z run...at hr48 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheWeatherPimp Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 I noticed the discussion about breaking up the area last night, posted this in the OT section This is similar to Hoosier's idea, and would fit the pattern for weather, as most weather that directly effects those areas do not effects IL/MI west, or it effects IL/MI west first then the OV later. I think we are to small of a group to be breaking us up and I enjoy discussing the weather out West and North as much as I do my own. Just my two cents. I think everyone just needs to hug and make up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Madmaxweather Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 18z looking decent! lol its the 18z so I am not going to get pants in the bundle yet! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JayPSU Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 Yeap! 18z GFS is holdings its own with that northern energy. Yep, it's not weakening as rapidly as it migrates east. Positive sign. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
goknights Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 18z gfs once again says congrats southern minn Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ajdos Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 I think we are to small of a group to be breaking us up and I enjoy discussing the weather out West and North as much as I do my own. Just my two cents. I think everyone just needs to hug and make up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Steve Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 Yep, it's not weakening as rapidly as it migrates east. Positive sign. Lord knows we need something positive!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Madmaxweather Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 .31 for CVG LOL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 I think we are to small of a group to be breaking us up and I enjoy discussing the weather out West and North as much as I do my own. Just my two cents. I think everyone just needs to hug and make up. Personally I wouldn't want a split other than maybe a split of threads within the group, my post was merely a suggestion if it were to happen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Madmaxweather Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 Some of you may wonder why I focus on southwest Ohio. Well right now my place where I sleep is in southern Ohio. Where I work is in Washington Courthouse about 30 miles southwest of CBUS... I am moving up this way in January. I am out in the boonies! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ajdos Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 Less blocking with the 18z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dilly84 Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 .31 for CVG LOL Its only out to 54 soundings aren't even out yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkeye_wx Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 I know this can change further, but I'm looking at the 18z GFS.... are you kidding me?!? It now has the heaviest band of snow from, you guessed it, southern Minnesota to Northern Illinois. UGH!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Madmaxweather Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 Its only out to 54 soundings aren't even out yet. MOS data from accuweather pro was quicker with the data Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dilly84 Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 It came quite a ways west Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dilly84 Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 MOS data from accuweather pro was quicker with the data Gotcha. Was gonna say lol.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JayPSU Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 Its only out to 54 soundings aren't even out yet. It's show a fairly large change in how long the northern stream energy lasts up our way over 12Z. This may yet trend towards giving us a modest 1-3" by verification time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jhamps10 Posted December 22, 2010 Author Share Posted December 22, 2010 Here's what it showed through 72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JayPSU Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 Here's what it showed through 72 VS. 12Z you see the difference. Nice trend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_Global_Warmer Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 The 18z RGEM has a bigger phase, the NAM and GFS both trend better with the phase and now have more QPF further north. the GFS has 4+ inches here. if this trend continues that is great news. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JayPSU Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 Here's 6Z. So look at 6Z, then 12, then 18. Gotta like the trend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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