dilly84 Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 GFS is almost to the euro solution for the EC just needs to be west 100 miles or so. 964mb low sitting out there spinning lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_Global_Warmer Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 this is a killer, after being on the SW end of a rain/mix then rain/mix snow, then mix/mix/snow, then mix/snow, then light mix/heavy snow. then SNOW, SNOW, snow, light snow/moderate snow, light snow, light snow, now flurries and light snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 Not to be a d**k, but the 12z model thread on the main page is pretty depressing for the EC snow crowd. This things further left than Fidel Castro why is it depressing for them? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
illinois Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 I thought I just saw a tumble weed blowin' through this thread. Oh well, my three year old son is getting a set of golf clubs for Christmas, so a January break would have its upsides. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 well at least the east coasters will get to feast on a historic storm. Euro is even stronger this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LizardMafia Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 Well, at least I will be able to enjoy my Christmas in peace and not having to watch the models.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
illinois Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 why is it depressing for them? I deleted those posts, I saw a panel of the GEM that looked to be sliding ENE with the precip, but then came the EURO roaring in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JayPSU Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 Wow, look at this sucker. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dilly84 Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 Wow, look at this sucker. Yea pretty impressive. The whole scenario is depressing for many of us over this way though, would've been nice to get a couple inches. Oh well. Happy for the EC'ers I suppose. Hope they get bombed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 ECM about to pull the coup. This is about 5-6 runs of mass destruction on the east coast by the OP when all other guidance, including its own ensemble members, gave a relatively low probability for that kind of crushing hit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_Global_Warmer Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 18z NAM gives some hope for the Iowa crew. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KeenerWx Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 18z NAM gives some hope for the Iowa crew. Every once in awhile I cannot access NCEP for a couple days. I must be tagged as a weenie on the NCEP server. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkeye_wx Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 18z NAM gives some hope for the Iowa crew. Just saw that. It's not as far northeast as the 12z GFS, but it's certainly a big departure from the last few NAM runs. I'd be happy with 2 or 3 inches. Anything more would be great. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dilly84 Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 Anyone read JB's column today I was curious to hear his excuse lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 This is an interesting NAM run to watch unfold. watching these two come together is going to be sweet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkeye_wx Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 Boy, the 18z NAM really went nuts with the snow over Iowa. I have to think the wide band of 0.60-0.70" from nw to se Iowa is overdoing it given the limited moisture. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 This is an interesting NAM run to watch unfold. watching these two come together is going to be sweet. Would have been sweeter if they were phasing over the Plains as opposed to east of the MS River. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Madmaxweather Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 I still will hold my tune that the northern energy will bring a light snow event to the southern Ohio area. The GFS,SREF had it and the NAM and CMC are getting closer. It won't be a ton but 1-2 possibly 3 should do it up this way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
okie333 Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 Would have been sweeter if they were phasing over the Plains as opposed to east of the MS River. Agreed 1224% Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Justin Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 I'm just not seeing anything overly impressive out of this storm... never really thought it was a big threat here from the get go. I'd be happy with a couple inches but I don't think, in the end, I'll even get that out of this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 Would have been sweeter if they were phasing over the Plains as opposed to east of the MS River. Yeah, i'm trying to put this one in the rearview and enjoy it for what it is. This thing sure looks like a crippler in the making for the EC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Madmaxweather Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 Would have been sweeter if they were phasing over the Plains as opposed to east of the MS River. Didn't that happen this time last year? LOL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jhamps10 Posted December 22, 2010 Author Share Posted December 22, 2010 at least the 18z gave us something unlike the 12z... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_Global_Warmer Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 18z nam has a much stronger northern vort. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxdudemike Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 I still will hold my tune that the northern energy will bring a light snow event to the southern Ohio area. The GFS,SREF had it and the NAM and CMC are getting closer. It won't be a ton but 1-2 possibly 3 should do it up this way. I agree. I have 1-3 in the forecast for Cincinnati over a period of Friday through Sunday afternoon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Madmaxweather Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 I agree. I have 1-3 in the forecast for Cincinnati over a period of Friday through Sunday afternoon. I think the 1-2 will likely come Xmas Eve night- Xmas Day with more snow showers on Sunday another 1...Keep an eye on the strength of the northern vort because the models may start playing catch up with that piece of energy. It may be inside 48hrs that instead .05-.15 QPF that we may bump that to .10-.25 possibly especially across the souther part of Ohio and northern Kentucky. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_Global_Warmer Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 18z nam and 15z srefs are better with the phase...if they get faster with a phase and stronger northern vort new possibilities may come Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Madmaxweather Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 18z nam and 15z srefs are better with the phase...if they get faster with a phase and stronger northern vort new possibilities may come This is why I haven't hopped on that bus. I am quite young but I know the history with these types of situations that the models will "Catch" something inside 48hrs and right now they are sniffing it but haven't caught it. I could be barking up the wrong tree here but I think the EURO especially has put too much emphasis on the southern energy the whole time. The GFS caught it and NAM is catching on. The CMC is flip flopping but it sniffs it. It would be nice to see a phase quick enough to pull this sucker inland instead of a coastal. Likely not going to happen! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
prinsburg_wx Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 18Z RGEM being generous with 48 total qpf over w MN...close to .5...15z sref has same amounts but a tad further s Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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