Jonger Posted May 19, 2016 Share Posted May 19, 2016 I really don't like trying to define a good winter by storms alone. You could have a wall to wall torch and sneak a monster out of it. Temps are a better gauge. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted May 19, 2016 Share Posted May 19, 2016 You could have a wall to wall torch and sneak a monster out of it. that's the ideal setup 50-60s all winter with a single 2' bomb Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonger Posted May 19, 2016 Share Posted May 19, 2016 duh, even if this winter doesn't deliver in the final snowfall total department (and who really cares about that) i like the prospects for cutters and active weather Ending up on the wrong side of a storm all winter is like going to the bar every weekend with your friend and he's always taking home the chick. Screw that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hm8 Posted May 19, 2016 Share Posted May 19, 2016 that's the ideal setup 50-60s all winter with a single 2' bomb Ending up on the wrong side of a storm all winter is like going to the bar every weekend with your friend and he's always taking home the chick. Screw that. Nah... More like scoring the hottest chick one or two nights and getting to chill at your sick bachelor pad the rest of the time. As opposed your friend who's in a steady, but often boring long-term relationship. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted May 19, 2016 Share Posted May 19, 2016 there you go Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonger Posted May 19, 2016 Share Posted May 19, 2016 Nah... More like scoring the hottest chick one or two nights and getting to chill at your sick bachelor pad the rest of the time. As opposed your friend who's in a steady, but often boring long-term relationship. Aleks plan is more like a lot of maturbation and maybe a weekend at the bunny ranch once a year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RogueWaves Posted May 19, 2016 Share Posted May 19, 2016 that's the ideal setup 50-60s all winter with a single 2' bomb Name me one year that happened!?! Edit: in the Lwr Lks, not the EC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonger Posted May 19, 2016 Share Posted May 19, 2016 Name me one year that happened!?! Edit: in the Lwr Lks, not the EC Alek would be better off moving to somewhere like Austin, TX. He would like the weather and politics, plus he could just fly into an EC city before a big dog and fly out afterwards. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted May 19, 2016 Share Posted May 19, 2016 way too hot Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IWXwx Posted May 19, 2016 Share Posted May 19, 2016 Alek would be better off moving to somewhere like Austin, TX. He would like the weather and politics, plus he could just fly into an EC city before a big dog and fly out afterwards. Alek likes his lake breezes. You're confusing him with Saukville. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted May 19, 2016 Share Posted May 19, 2016 Alek likes his lake breezes. You're confusing him with Saukville. or one of those palm tree growing goof balls out in the burbs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted May 29, 2016 Share Posted May 29, 2016 way too hotWay way too hot. I would burn up in Austin. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted May 29, 2016 Share Posted May 29, 2016 ENSO weeklies are dropping pretty fast now as the SOI climbs and the Indian Ocean cools substantially. Considering the subsurface cold anomalies, we could see a significant La Nina by summer's end as the cold bubble surfaces. TAO/TRITON analysis already shows an area of -1C SST anomalies from 125-140W longitude along the equator. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted June 4, 2016 Author Share Posted June 4, 2016 Region 3.4 about head negative. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted June 27, 2016 Author Share Posted June 27, 2016 Latest CFS outlook. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonger Posted June 28, 2016 Share Posted June 28, 2016 Latest CFS outlook. That would actually be great. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted June 28, 2016 Share Posted June 28, 2016 The weekly 3.4 number came in at -0.4. After flirting with either side of 0 for a while, this looks like the real deal and it should remain negative going forward. That being said, this La Nina is developing fairly slowly to this point (compared to some others in recent years) which makes any talk of a strong Nina questionable at best. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chambana Posted June 28, 2016 Share Posted June 28, 2016 The weekly 3.4 number came in at -0.4. After flirting with either side of 0 for a while, this looks like the real deal and it should remain negative going forward. That being said, this La Nina is developing fairly slowly to this point (compared to some others in recent years) which makes any talk of a strong Nina questionable at best. Accuweather already released a winter graphic with them banking on a weak La Niña. I was also watching a YouTube video of some forecaster (forgot who it was) he also said any talk of a strong La Niña would be tossed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted July 8, 2016 Author Share Posted July 8, 2016 New Scripps Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HillsdaleMIWeather Posted July 8, 2016 Share Posted July 8, 2016 New Scripps I'm starting to feel excited for this winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted July 8, 2016 Share Posted July 8, 2016 New Scripps A central based Nina like this screams active fall severe season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted July 9, 2016 Share Posted July 9, 2016 I'm starting to feel excited for this winter.Entering a solar min too! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RCNYILWX Posted July 9, 2016 Share Posted July 9, 2016 A central based Nina like this screams active fall severe season.Should be a banner fall and spring for severe weather. Most first year Niñas are quite active, with only a few examples of fairly quiet seasons. If the PDO can get to more neutral or negative, will further help ensure an active severe weather pattern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted July 9, 2016 Share Posted July 9, 2016 Should be a banner fall and spring for severe weather. Most first year Niñas are quite active, with only a few examples of fairly quiet seasons. If the PDO can get to more neutral or negative, will further help ensure an active severe weather pattern.Yeah the PDO is at least trending that way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chambana Posted July 10, 2016 Share Posted July 10, 2016 Surprised this thread hasn't caught more attention lately. The ensemble means now support a very weak La Niña for the upcoming winter, barely meeting La Niña threshold, a far cry from the super Niña we all had discussed back in spring. Pretty interesting watching this enso state unfold. As was discussed earlier for potential analogs 73-74 popped up a few times, but now leaning more towards 83-84 being a closer match. Wasn't a bad winter. In fact December was VERY cold that year. Overall, a very cold winter for the conus. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoachLB Posted September 8, 2016 Share Posted September 8, 2016 Since the demise of the big 2015-16 El Niño in April, the tropical Pacific has been loitering around in neutral… and now forecasters think it’s likely to stay that way through the winter. For now, we’re taking down the La Niña Watch, since it no longer looks favorable for La Niña conditions to develop within the next six months. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
oldlogin Posted January 16, 2017 Share Posted January 16, 2017 From Philip Klotzbach 1/16/2017 Approximately 70% of ensemble members from latest ECMWF model run calling for #ElNino by July. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 16, 2017 Share Posted January 16, 2017 Have had 4 consecutive trimonthly readings of -0.5 or colder. Just need the NDJ reading to come in at -0.5 or lower and this will officially be a La Nina episode. Sort of a moot point though as there have been Nina tendencies in the pattern no matter how you slice it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SchaumburgStormer Posted January 17, 2017 Share Posted January 17, 2017 8 hours ago, oldlogin said: From Philip Klotzbach 1/16/2017 Approximately 70% of ensemble members from latest ECMWF model run calling for #ElNino by July. Not going to put too much stock in it, as we can see what came of the "Strong Nina" that was forecasted late last winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 5, 2017 Share Posted February 5, 2017 Got the 5 overlapping tri monthlies of -0.5 or colder http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/ensostuff/ensoyears.shtml Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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