Chambana Posted May 8, 2016 Share Posted May 8, 2016 Will be interesting to see what that does to global temps. That it will. Could a strong to very strong La Niña hamper global temps from rising the next 1-2 years? Small analog pool for next winter should SCRIPPS be right. 73-74 sticks out right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonger Posted May 9, 2016 Share Posted May 9, 2016 That it will. Could a strong to very strong La Niña hamper global temps from rising the next 1-2 years? Small analog pool for next winter should SCRIPPS be right. 73-74 sticks out right now. I think ENSO loads the dice, but anything can still happen. This past winter had a TERRIBLE December, but the other two months weren't that bad. 2011-2012 was a weak nina and that winter sucked from start to finish. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted May 11, 2016 Author Share Posted May 11, 2016 3.4 dropping hard now. Region 3 is the coolest right now. Almost to neutral conditions. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted May 12, 2016 Share Posted May 12, 2016 That it will. Could a strong to very strong La Niña hamper global temps from rising the next 1-2 years? Small analog pool for next winter should SCRIPPS be right. 73-74 sticks out right now. Let's see, I was in the 4th grade, living in central Ohio and I believe that winter was memorable for how forgettable it was. I think that was a big severe year though. Will see if my memory serves me well once the board statisticians chime in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UMB WX Posted May 12, 2016 Share Posted May 12, 2016 42" of snow in Feb here for 73/74 winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted May 12, 2016 Share Posted May 12, 2016 Let's see, I was in the 4th grade, living in central Ohio and I believe that winter was memorable for how forgettable it was. I think that was a big severe year though. Will see if my memory serves me well once the board statisticians chime in. Historic outbreak in april of 74, depending where you lived in central Ohio, you were probably close to some large tornadoes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted May 12, 2016 Share Posted May 12, 2016 this winter is going to torch Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonger Posted May 12, 2016 Share Posted May 12, 2016 this winter is going to torch Hahaha Nope. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chambana Posted May 12, 2016 Share Posted May 12, 2016 Jamstec has a 2 year La Niña. similar ENSO cycle 97-01?Something to watch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted May 12, 2016 Share Posted May 12, 2016 this winter is going to torchI'd go for a 73-74 10-11 blend, worse case scenario 98-99. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted May 13, 2016 Author Share Posted May 13, 2016 This winter will be unique; if we have a strong la Niña, because of the positive PDO. In the mid 70s it was largely negative. http://worldcomplex.blogspot.com/2014/01/cycles-of-dengue-in-singapore.html There she goes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chambana Posted May 13, 2016 Share Posted May 13, 2016 Alek is done sold on blowtorch. I'm with Stebo a blend of 73-74 and 10-11 is probably a solid call, and that would bode well for the sub, high end moderate low end strong Niña. All those winters Stebo mentioned great things have happened in everyone of them, although 73-74 didn't feature blockbuster winter storms, the outbreak payed dividends. I'm going high end moderate La Niña this winter. Only reason I'm skeptical on a strong Niña is because how bad models handled the Nino of 2014. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted May 13, 2016 Author Share Posted May 13, 2016 Alek is done sold on blowtorch. I'm with Stebo a blend of 73-74 and 10-11 is probably a solid call, and that would bode well for the sub, high end moderate low end strong Niña. All those winters Stebo mentioned great things have happened in everyone of them, although 73-74 didn't feature blockbuster winter storms, the outbreak payed dividends. I'm going high end moderate La Niña this winter. Only reason I'm skeptical on a strong Niña is because how bad models handled the Nino of 2014. I think the winters of 13-14, 14-15 had an effect on him. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonger Posted May 13, 2016 Share Posted May 13, 2016 I think the winters of 13-14, 14-15 had an effect on him. Perhaps he agreed to pay for the AmWx forum bandwidth charges for the coming winter. A torch would certainly reduce traffic and save him money. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherbo Posted May 13, 2016 Share Posted May 13, 2016 Alek's trolling winter weenies. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IWXwx Posted May 13, 2016 Share Posted May 13, 2016 Alek's trolling winter weenies. This. He knows darn well that a moderate Nina portends a brutal winter for ORD. He's also a reverse psychology abuser. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chambana Posted May 14, 2016 Share Posted May 14, 2016 Alek thoroughly enjoyed this super Nino winter. Dudes tired of being buried with 20" big dogs lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted May 15, 2016 Share Posted May 15, 2016 The winter of 1973-74 wasnt an exceptional winter, but it was certainly decent. Both snowfall and snowcover were above normal. I see 1973-74, 1998-99, 2010-11 mentioned in here. All of those winters had at least one massive snowstorm in the lower Lakes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted May 17, 2016 Author Share Posted May 17, 2016 Cool animation of the colder water rising towards the surface of the equatorial Pacific. https://www.climate.gov/news-features/featured-images/la-ni%C3%B1a-coming-deep-pool-cool-water-making-its-way-across-tropical Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted May 17, 2016 Share Posted May 17, 2016 love all the hopes and dreams being pinned on the nina Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted May 17, 2016 Share Posted May 17, 2016 love all the hopes and dreams being pinned on the nina There really are very few first year moderate to strong Ninas that are clunkers. 1998-99 is one of the worst and it had an incredible January. 88-89 is another bad year but it started sooner than this Nina will and was stronger than this upcoming Nina Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nwohweather Posted May 18, 2016 Share Posted May 18, 2016 Strong El Niño to La Niña is essentially severe weather gold as we've seen with what 1974 and 2011 became. While the mild weather has been nice this year to do activities in it's been quite boring as someone who follows it closely. It's a safe bet that next year will not be Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted May 18, 2016 Share Posted May 18, 2016 There really are very few first year moderate to strong Ninas that are clunkers. 1998-99 is one of the worst and it had an incredible January. 88-89 is another bad year but it started sooner than this Nina will and was stronger than this upcoming NinaOther than 88-89 most nina winters are good. And chances for a massive snowstorm are higher than normal. Not to mention...we just are on a roll with winters. There's absolutely no way to get around it. This past winter was just one of two winters in the last 9 years to have below normal snow, while 4 of the last 9 made detroits all time snowiest list (including #1). This past winter wasn't just a strong nino, but a super nino, & we STILL ended up with 85% of normal snowfall. No reason to not keep riding the hot hand until we really do see a stinker or more importantly a smattering of stinkers, not one a decade . I'm sure it will happen eventually. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted May 18, 2016 Share Posted May 18, 2016 this nina is going to be accompanied by record or near record low sea ice and the pattern amplification that goes along with it...just better hope you end up on the right side of the equation otherwise Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chambana Posted May 18, 2016 Share Posted May 18, 2016 Its a really interesting winter shaping up. As Geos pointed out, IF we do get a strong Niña it would be unique since we are pre dominantly in a +PDO phase, and as alek pointed out near record low sea ice, I think solar cycles are cool to follow, and solar activity is super low right now. All I really want for next winter is a front loaded winter, and snow on the ground for the holidays. 4/5 last Decembers have been straight blow torches. Brown Christmases are the worst. Also if the Jamstec were to be believed, we would be looking at a multi year La Niña event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chambana Posted May 18, 2016 Share Posted May 18, 2016 And also to add on from previous post, if models are correct in that a multi year Niña is on the way, it's actually very common being preceded by strong to very strong Ninos. Plotted below are multi year ninas following strong to very strong Ninos. Those years (1973,1974,1975,1983,1984,1998,1999) all of varying strength. As I have said previously 1973-1974 might not be a bad match for this upcoming winter and perhaps 1974-1975 scenario will play out for the following winter? Premature of course but fun speculation... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted May 18, 2016 Share Posted May 18, 2016 No guarantees but if I had to pick whether to go into winter with a strong Nina or strong Nino (or even moderate), I know which side I'd go with. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted May 18, 2016 Share Posted May 18, 2016 No guarantees but if I had to pick whether to go into winter with a strong Nina or strong Nino (or even moderate), I know which side I'd go with. duh, even if this winter doesn't deliver in the final snowfall total department (and who really cares about that) i like the prospects for cutters and active weather Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted May 19, 2016 Share Posted May 19, 2016 Wintornadoes. Although this past winter was pretty cranked up in that department as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted May 19, 2016 Share Posted May 19, 2016 duh, even if this winter doesn't deliver in the final snowfall total department (and who really cares about that) i like the prospects for cutters and active weatherAll 3 of Stebo's picks (10-11, 98-99, 73-74) each had at least one storm that dropped up to 2 feet of snow in the lower lakes, not to mention a slew of activity. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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