Geos Posted April 14, 2016 Share Posted April 14, 2016 All indications a strong la Niña will take shape by early autumn. Currently we have an el Niño still, but the SST anomalies are crashing hard. Region 1+2 has really cooled off. 7 day change shows the cooling in the equatorial eastern basin well. You can see in the last few frames the colder waters rising up from the depths. http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/NMME/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted April 15, 2016 Share Posted April 15, 2016 Going to be an impressive flip if those projections are close. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted April 15, 2016 Share Posted April 15, 2016 Lol at the SCRIPPS with a -3.5 anomaly in 3.4 by winter. That would literally blow any other ENSO event in terms of peak tri-monthly magnitude out of the water. Obviously overdone, but seems to be a reasonable shot at a mod/strong event if we continue to see the cold pool surfacing at this rate. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hm8 Posted April 15, 2016 Share Posted April 15, 2016 Lol at the SCRIPPS with a -3.5 anomaly in 3.4 by winter. That would literally blow any other ENSO event in terms of peak tri-monthly magnitude out of the water. Obviously overdone, but seems to be a reasonable shot at a mod/strong event if we continue to see the cold pool surfacing at this rate.Godzilla El Nino... Mothra La Nina? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted April 15, 2016 Author Share Posted April 15, 2016 Yeah the SCRIPPS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SchaumburgStormer Posted April 15, 2016 Share Posted April 15, 2016 Going to be an impressive flip if those projections are close. Definitely like that look for winter much better than the crapshoot we just went through, even if it doesn't verify anywhere near that strong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted April 15, 2016 Share Posted April 15, 2016 strong nina + what should be record low ice cover over the arctic should = a rocking fall Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Central Illinois Posted April 16, 2016 Share Posted April 16, 2016 Looks a lot better for this coming winter then that crap we had last winter! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UMB WX Posted April 16, 2016 Share Posted April 16, 2016 WWW Return of a Wagons West Winter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted April 17, 2016 Author Share Posted April 17, 2016 WWW Return of a Wagons West Winter I think it will be a spread the wealth winter all around. Probably some wild swings too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted April 17, 2016 Author Share Posted April 17, 2016 NOAA officially puts out a la Niña watch. Didn't even notice until today. https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/capital-weather-gang/wp/2016/04/14/noaa-issues-la-nina-watch-as-tropical-pacific-temperatures-tank/?postshare=6871460719115026&tid=ss_tw Cold pool in the eastern Pacific is really taking off. http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/cdas-sflux_ssta_global_1.png Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chambana Posted April 23, 2016 Share Posted April 23, 2016 Well if we transition to full blown strong La Niña conditions for met winter of 2016-2017 perhaps 1973-1974 could be a very strong analog, as that year also preceded a very strong El Niño, followed by strong La Niña. And we all know what happened in spring of 74! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted April 23, 2016 Author Share Posted April 23, 2016 Well if we transition to full blown strong La Niña conditions for met winter of 2016-2017 perhaps 1973-1974 could be a very strong analog, as that year also preceded a very strong El Niño, followed by strong La Niña. And we all know what happened in spring of 74! I wasn't alive then, so what did happen that spring? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted April 23, 2016 Share Posted April 23, 2016 I wasn't alive then, so what did happen that spring? The 1974 Super Outbreak for one thing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted April 23, 2016 Author Share Posted April 23, 2016 The 1974 Super Outbreak for one thing. O yeah that's right. I thought he was getting at a cool spring or something. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chambana Posted April 23, 2016 Share Posted April 23, 2016 O yeah that's right. I thought he was getting at a cool spring or something. Nope sorry. As Hoosier said, the mother of all outbreaks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted April 23, 2016 Author Share Posted April 23, 2016 Nope sorry. As Hoosier said, the mother of all outbreaks. I'm not that great with dates. Was it just one day or was it a few, several? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chambana Posted April 23, 2016 Share Posted April 23, 2016 I'm not that great with dates. Was it just one day or was it a few, several? Second largest violent tornado outbreak on record in a 24 hr period behind 2011, C. Illinois and NW Indiana were hit extremely hard. Not to mention the south was obliterated as well. Will pull up some maps here shortly! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chambana Posted April 23, 2016 Share Posted April 23, 2016 Not the best signal for a rockin winter for the sub if a 72-73, 73-74 scenario played out, but could be worse. Better than the garbage of 15-16' Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted April 23, 2016 Author Share Posted April 23, 2016 Not the best signal for a rockin winter for the sub if a 72-73, 73-74 scenario played out, but could be worse. Better than the garbage of 15-16' Thanks for the info. Yeah that wouldn't be all that bad of a winter signal. Just looking at the Pacific Ocean - still have that warm pool along the West Coast. That could make this upcoming winter a bit unique if the la Niña is really ripping. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IWXwx Posted April 23, 2016 Share Posted April 23, 2016 Second largest violent tornado outbreak on record in a 24 hr period behind 2011, C. Illinois and NW Indiana were hit extremely hard. Not to mention the south was obliterated as well. Will pull up some maps here shortly! North Central IN got hit hard too. Downtown Russiaville was destroyed. Monticello IN, didn't fare very well either. Their courthouse: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted April 27, 2016 Share Posted April 27, 2016 Last nina certainly has a high likelihood to be a wetter than normal winter in these parts...and would most likely be both white and wet, hopefully much more white. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted April 30, 2016 Author Share Posted April 30, 2016 ENSO region 3.4 below 1.0 now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted April 30, 2016 Author Share Posted April 30, 2016 North Central IN got hit hard too. Downtown Russiaville was destroyed. Monticello IN, didn't fare very well either. Their courthouse: mont1cr_small.png If I didn't know better, that looks like earthquake damage with all the stonework on the ground. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted May 5, 2016 Author Share Posted May 5, 2016 New SCRIPPS outlook. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted May 5, 2016 Share Posted May 5, 2016 New SCRIPPS outlook. I'd probably knock a degree off of that. That being said the signal for a moderate to strong La Nina is looking like a slam dunk at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chambana Posted May 5, 2016 Share Posted May 5, 2016 I'd probably knock a degree off of that. That being said the signal for a moderate to strong La Nina is looking like a slam dunk at this point. Mod La Niña would bode well for most of the sub. Some good winters come out of moderate Ninas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted May 6, 2016 Share Posted May 6, 2016 Mod La Niña would bode well for most of the sub. Some good winters come out of moderate Ninas.Nina winters are typically very active in the lower lakes. It's usually a good bet to count on many snowstorms...but several rainstorms as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chambana Posted May 7, 2016 Share Posted May 7, 2016 The SCRIPPS has this La Niña bottoming out at almost -2.40. That's crazy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonger Posted May 8, 2016 Share Posted May 8, 2016 The SCRIPPS has this La Niña bottoming out at almost -2.40. That's crazy. Will be interesting to see what that does to global temps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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