EastonSN+ Posted October 24, 2016 Share Posted October 24, 2016 1 hour ago, CoolMike said: I think part of the problem is the spectacular fail of the SAI in recent memory. We finally had something that looked skillful for a seasonal AO/NAO outlook - only to see it fail by a >5 sigma counter-example (really demolishing the previously pretty good correlation). Now it seems like we're left to wonder if any method of tracking the atmosphere and oceans in October has any skill for determining basic elements of the climate / weather in January. Perhaps not. In other news I've repeatedly been seeing skinny squirrels in my neck of the woods - I find this a foreboding signal for this winter. What is scary is I used to track that when I was younger (squirrels) and it almost always correlated to a warm winter. Then again I used to track this in the late 80s and 90s. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted October 24, 2016 Share Posted October 24, 2016 47 minutes ago, uncle W said: the best MEI analogs for 2016 to this point are 1959-60, 1966-67, 1978-79, 1995-96... Sign me up, In order for PWM: 59-60- 93.4", 66-67- 106.2", 78-79- 92.3" and 95-96- 123.0" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted October 24, 2016 Share Posted October 24, 2016 4 hours ago, CoolMike said: I think part of the problem is the spectacular fail of the SAI in recent memory. We finally had something that looked skillful for a seasonal AO/NAO outlook - only to see it fail by a >5 sigma counter-example (really demolishing the previously pretty good correlation). Now it seems like we're left to wonder if any method of tracking the atmosphere and oceans in October has any skill for determining basic elements of the climate / weather in January. Perhaps not. In other news I've repeatedly been seeing skinny squirrels in my neck of the woods - I find this a foreboding signal for this winter. The 2014 fail may have had something to do with that hybrid typhoon crashing into western Canada in November. That's not my own original idea, but someone over in the NYC forum and it's definitely a possibility. Cohen also pointed to some odd meso high in northeast Siberia as well I believe. Last year the El Niño trumped the entire thing. At the same time though it's entirely possible that the extremely snowy 2014-15 winter as a whole despite the bad AO and NAO may have been a product of the extensive Siberian snow cover early on, even if it didn't drive the AO negative it may have ultimately had some impact on that winter. And last February's cold outbreak also could have been a byproduct of what was extensive Siberian snow cover. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tamarack Posted October 24, 2016 Share Posted October 24, 2016 3 hours ago, ORH_wxman said: No argument from me that '95-'96 was really tainted by the big snow melt at times, it's not even in my top 3 favorite winters, though probably top 5. Though I do come to appreciate December 1995 more and more...that was literally unending winter. Not overly common in SNE to basically go wire to wire without any major warmth in the month of December with a plethora of snow events to boot....more common up your way as the seasonal gradient has typically encroached more permanently into NNE by then. Even during our pretty good run of Decembers from 2000-2010, we had a lot of ugly thaws, which is part of what makes Dec '95 so pristine in memory now. But Jan/Feb '96 were frustrating for sure even though the total snow in those months was quite prolific. December was indeed the best part of that winter, including 17.5" of fluff (biggest snowfall of my 13 winters in Gardiner) on Dec. 20-21. However, it wasn't exactly wall-to-wall cold/snowy here. That month averaged -4 in Farmington (don't have my Gardiner temps handy), but the first 3 weeks were -9 with over 90% of the month's snow, and the final 10 days +6. No big thaw (high was 39) but a pack-settler. The first of 5 straight "schizo" months - some great-to-meh like Dec, some good-to-awful like Jan. And I'd take another shot at 78-79, with its Christmas snowstorm, wacky January (2 of my 4 sub- minus 40 mornings, all 5 of my Jan minima above 32 in Ft. Kent), and the Feb run of 8 cons subzero maxima - with wind thru the period. Clean miss on PD1, but some powerful April storms, plus the St. John flood that held the record until 2008 blew it away. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
J Paul Gordon Posted October 25, 2016 Share Posted October 25, 2016 7 hours ago, Damage In Tolland said: Pretty good winter discussion and forecast here. I'm not familiar with this guy. Is he reputable? http://www.vencoreweather.com/blog/2016/10/24/2016-2017-winter-outlook-by-vencore-weather An interesting read, anyhow. Seems intelligent, but what do I know? (Really) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
J Paul Gordon Posted October 25, 2016 Share Posted October 25, 2016 Thanks to ORH wxman and CoolMike for the responses to my question and to Kevin for his link to that DC area source. I'll be looking for more at the beginning of November. By the way has Judah Cohen published anything of late? Last I found was from this time last year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted October 25, 2016 Share Posted October 25, 2016 Euro Weeklies Looks great from mid NOV through mid DEC -EPO, -AO, -NAO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted October 25, 2016 Share Posted October 25, 2016 1 hour ago, J Paul Gordon said: An interesting read, anyhow. Seems intelligent, but what do I know? (Really) In my opinion, Paul Dorian is a smart MET, and quite experienced. Obviously he forecasts for the Mid Atlantic region. He used to forecast for "The SI" weather company if I remember correctly. Now he is Vencor Weather. I used to read his blog regularly, and found him to be good. And I agree with Kevin and J Paul Gordon, his outlook sounds reasonable and grounded...and as I said above, I used to read him quite regularly, he always made good sense to me-as he does here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted October 25, 2016 Share Posted October 25, 2016 17 hours ago, EastonSN+ said: What is scary is I used to track that when I was younger (squirrels) and it almost always correlated to a warm winter. Then again I used to track this in the late 80s and 90s. In November 2011, the squirrels were pretty fat. They're fat imby now actually but after the muthufukkas lied to me they're dead in my mind. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 25, 2016 Share Posted October 25, 2016 A lot of people have forecasts already out...vendors etc. I know we do. And all pretty much agree that it will generally be colder across the CONUS, but there is uncertainty thanks to weak ENSO and what the heck will happen with the NAO. Some of the seasonal models really disagree with each other. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lava Rock Posted October 25, 2016 Share Posted October 25, 2016 In November 2011, the squirrels were pretty fat. They're fat imby now actually but after the muthufukkas lied to me they're dead in my mind.Squirrels lives matter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted October 25, 2016 Share Posted October 25, 2016 2 hours ago, CoastalWx said: A lot of people have forecasts already out...vendors etc. I know we do. And all pretty much agree that it will generally be colder across the CONUS, but there is uncertainty thanks to weak ENSO and what the heck will happen with the NAO. Some of the seasonal models really disagree with each other. Do they also agree that the sun angle will continue to lower for the next two months? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted October 25, 2016 Share Posted October 25, 2016 13 hours ago, Snow88 said: Euro Weeklies Looks great from mid NOV through mid DEC -EPO, -AO, -NAO Where are we accessing the weeklies? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted October 25, 2016 Share Posted October 25, 2016 The ground should be colder too so that will help with accumulations on grass and paved surfaces............... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 25, 2016 Share Posted October 25, 2016 5 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Do they also agree that the sun angle will continue to lower for the next two months? Some haven't ruled out a torch either. I mean colder compared to last year. Most seem to like JFM for wintry weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted October 25, 2016 Share Posted October 25, 2016 3 hours ago, weathafella said: In November 2011, the squirrels were pretty fat. They're fat imby now actually but after the muthufukkas lied to me they're dead in my mind. I've found it only works occasionally. Fall of 2001 and 2002 I definitely noticed a difference for sure. I think I also noticed 2011 as you said. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted October 25, 2016 Share Posted October 25, 2016 17 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Where are we accessing the weeklies? I have no idea where he got mid December from...the weeklies only go out to mid Nov. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted October 25, 2016 Share Posted October 25, 2016 14 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Some haven't ruled out a torch either. I mean colder compared to last year. Most seem to like JFM for wintry weather. I know, which is why I mentioned the sun angle comment. No outlooks released this early really tell you a damn thing is my point.....so it will probably be colder than last season's +15, and JFM have the best shot of wintry weather. Ground breaking- Not meant towards you, Scott....dn't take it the wrong way... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted October 25, 2016 Share Posted October 25, 2016 27 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Where are we accessing the weeklies? WxBell and they go out to 00z Dec 9th Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted October 25, 2016 Share Posted October 25, 2016 Yes, on weatherbell they extend to D45, but I personally haven't found much value beyond D 20-25 or so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 25, 2016 Share Posted October 25, 2016 I think I also heard the weeklies extent to 6 weeks now? I only see through week 4. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 25, 2016 Share Posted October 25, 2016 8 minutes ago, Isotherm said: Yes, on weatherbell they extend to D45, but I personally haven't found much value beyond D 20-25 or so. Hell weeks 3 and 4 are crappy a lot of times. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted October 25, 2016 Share Posted October 25, 2016 3 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Hell weeks 3 and 4 are crappy a lot of times. Yeah I can't imagine week 6 has much of any skill at all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted October 25, 2016 Share Posted October 25, 2016 15 minutes ago, Isotherm said: Yes, on weatherbell they extend to D45, but I personally haven't found much value beyond D 20-25 or so. not to be a dink but ... has anyone found value for days between D10 and 20 for that matter ? thing is ... it's entirely possible (and some have demonstrated skill in the past) to just look at that hidden trends of the larger-scaled mass field (teleconnectors), and combine that with even longer term mode knowledge, and assess risk areas. it's just not specific event oriented. as far as anything beyond D10 to 20 ...even this drops off into obscurity. i'm all for the advancement of technology though; if they can come up with a product that proves that to be than utter dice rolling, that would be amazing, too.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted October 25, 2016 Share Posted October 25, 2016 1 minute ago, Typhoon Tip said: not to be a dink but ... has anyone found value for days between D10 and 20 for that matter ? thing is ... it's entirely possible (and some have demonstrated skill in the past) to just look at that hidden trends of the larger-scaled mass field (teleconnectors), and combine that with even longer term mode knowledge, and assess risk areas. it's just not specific event oriented. as far as anything beyond D10 to 20 ...even this drops off into obscurity. i'm all for the advancement of technology though; if they can come up with a product that proves that to be than utter dice rolling, that would be amazing, too.. I'm pretty sure I read a paper that showed that week 2 had some decent skill in the hemispheric pattern, but it dropped off quite a bit to week 3. I can't remember if it was on the ecmwf.int site or somewhere else. But yeah, even "decent skill" still leaves a lot of room for error when we are talking about our little slice of the Northern Hemisphere. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted October 25, 2016 Share Posted October 25, 2016 1 hour ago, ORH_wxman said: I'm pretty sure I read a paper that showed that week 2 had some decent skill in the hemispheric pattern, but it dropped off quite a bit to week 3. I can't remember if it was on the ecmwf.int site or somewhere else. But yeah, even "decent skill" still leaves a lot of room for error when we are talking about our little slice of the Northern Hemisphere. yeah, it may be even money for Week 2, to use either those, or good ole fashion down home teleconnector ...trend analysis, climate mode .. to cook up a similar assessment. kind of makes you really want to have a lunch with one of the senior modelers -- Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stadiumwave Posted October 25, 2016 Share Posted October 25, 2016 3 hours ago, ORH_wxman said: I have no idea where he got mid December from...the weeklies only go out to mid Nov. Actually the Weeklies go out 46 days now. Yesterday runs through DEC 9th. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted October 25, 2016 Share Posted October 25, 2016 15 minutes ago, stadiumwave said: Actually the Weeklies go out 46 days now. Yesterday runs through DEC 9th. You're about 3 hours late. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted October 26, 2016 Share Posted October 26, 2016 Wow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JBinStoughton Posted October 26, 2016 Share Posted October 26, 2016 1 hour ago, Snow88 said: Wow Looks like all the cold is going south west and that SE ridge won't give up for anything. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.