RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted October 13, 2016 Share Posted October 13, 2016 I enjoyed Rebeccas outlook but she can do without the "it was exactly like I said would happen". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
J Paul Gordon Posted October 13, 2016 Share Posted October 13, 2016 42 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Pin the tail on the donkey? Perhaps I used the wrong term. Haven't we had thread in the past where various winter outlooks were gathered and posted in the forum and that thread was pinned? I may be using the wrong terminology. If so, mea maxima culpa. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted October 13, 2016 Share Posted October 13, 2016 Clearly, There must be some warmista's out there that will run with some of these seasonal models Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 13, 2016 Share Posted October 13, 2016 20 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: I enjoyed Rebeccas outlook but she can do without the "it was exactly like I said would happen". I wonder how many times she mentioned "it didn't happen like I said it would..." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted October 13, 2016 Share Posted October 13, 2016 11 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: You can have cold with rain....are you kidding? your replies are incongruent, entirely, wrt that hypothetical stuff I wrote about. which was about the SST anomalies in the ENSO (like, Hemispheric scope/effecting ) having different physical influence on the system in a warmer world than they do even 50 years ago - expanding ( a little ) upon the gradient between the sea and air and air and air is what drives the engine of the atmosphere. which has nothing to do with cold in rain - not sure where that is coming from. is it possible there are two discussion streams being confused here - Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted October 13, 2016 Share Posted October 13, 2016 Sounds meh Matt Noyes @MattNoyesNECN 45m45 minutes ago If this pattern hold with a La Nina impact into winter, would be somewhat warmer than normal winter with near normal precip and snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 13, 2016 Share Posted October 13, 2016 What does he mean if this pattern holds? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 13, 2016 Share Posted October 13, 2016 If there is one thing this time of year shows, people usually don't have a clue what is going to happen. Unless, it's some sort of strong ENSO event, but even those have variability in the snow department. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHERBUFF Posted October 13, 2016 Share Posted October 13, 2016 3 hours ago, CoastalWx said: Surprised so many are going colder over US in the face of seasonal models. You'd think someone would rip and read them. Maybe they are forecasting and not relying on long range models which have not been reliable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stadiumwave Posted October 13, 2016 Share Posted October 13, 2016 Why would a pattern from Oct "hold" into winter? Historically, extremely rare Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted October 13, 2016 Share Posted October 13, 2016 Signs of an early winter showing up on the models finally. Towards the beginning of November GFS shows a monster clipper and monster trough swinging through the Great Lakes into the Northeast with a monster deep 850mb temps, -10C or colder showing up over the central Great Lakes. Folks if this becomes more consistent, then November could be a cold month. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted October 13, 2016 Share Posted October 13, 2016 I think Matt means if the La Nina holds throughout the Winter than we can expect what he said. I believe it will end up more neutral in the end. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted October 13, 2016 Share Posted October 13, 2016 12 minutes ago, USCAPEWEATHERAF said: Signs of an early winter showing up on the models finally. Towards the beginning of November GFS shows a monster clipper and monster trough swinging through the Great Lakes into the Northeast with a monster deep 850mb temps, -10C or colder showing up over the central Great Lakes. Folks if this becomes more consistent, then November could be a cold month. Monster extrapolation? Last I checked my d16 GFS only goes out to 10/29. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted October 13, 2016 Share Posted October 13, 2016 Sorry I meant end of October Dendrite. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted October 13, 2016 Share Posted October 13, 2016 I don't think the Northern New England folks should cry about not getting snow the last few years. I think they should let SNE get in on the action, especially places where we haven't seen much of it except for the 04-05 winter and the 14-15 winter. Those years we got 98" and 75" respectively here in Harwich, otherwise we haven't had many above average snowfall winters in the last 27 years. For crying out loud, if Northern New Englanders don't get 150" it is a crying shame. Sorry end of rant. You know I am right about this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted October 13, 2016 Share Posted October 13, 2016 3 minutes ago, USCAPEWEATHERAF said: I don't think the Northern New England folks should cry about not getting snow the last few years. I think they should let SNE get in on the action, especially places where we haven't seen much of it except for the 04-05 winter and the 14-15 winter. Those years we got 98" and 75" respectively here in Harwich, otherwise we haven't had many above average snowfall winters in the last 27 years. For crying out loud, if Northern New Englanders don't get 150" it is a crying shame. Sorry end of rant. You know I am right about this. The Cape has had 4 consecutive above average snowfall winters. If you think anything other than '04-'05 and '14-'15 are not good snow years on the Cape, then you don't know your own climo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted October 13, 2016 Share Posted October 13, 2016 Above average fine, yes, but nothing like 04-05 or 14-15 winters Will. Those were way above average, and my average winter snowfall amounts are near 30-32" per winter, while the Northern New England climo for snowfall is something near 100-150" of snow, can't we bask in our glory years for once without someone complaining about our latest seasonal snowfalls. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted October 13, 2016 Share Posted October 13, 2016 1 minute ago, USCAPEWEATHERAF said: Above average fine, yes, but nothing like 04-05 or 14-15 winters Will. Those were way above average, and my average winter snowfall amounts are near 30-32" per winter, while the Northern New England climo for snowfall is something near 100-150" of snow, can't we bask in our glory years for once without someone complaining about our latest seasonal snowfalls. You'd be complaining too if you had near-record low snowfall...lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted October 13, 2016 Share Posted October 13, 2016 It doesn't mean I would be right in doing so now would it? I would be chastised by the northerners because I am complaining about my own backyard. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted October 13, 2016 Share Posted October 13, 2016 I would be happy if Northern New England got a blizzard this year and dumped more than 50" of snowfall on them, but I would want the same given to me, that is human nature of us enthusiasts. Ray would love to see a storm like that, all of us in SNE would love to see a snow like that, no matter the physical trouble it might bring. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted October 13, 2016 Share Posted October 13, 2016 3 minutes ago, USCAPEWEATHERAF said: I would be happy if Northern New England got a blizzard this year and dumped more than 50" of snowfall on them, but I would want the same given to me, that is human nature of us enthusiasts. Ray would love to see a storm like that, all of us in SNE would love to see a snow like that, no matter the physical trouble it might bring. To be honest I hope those big red "L"s track NW of your fanny all winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
backedgeapproaching Posted October 13, 2016 Share Posted October 13, 2016 Sorry James.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted October 13, 2016 Share Posted October 13, 2016 Those are the winter storm tracks for this winter? Interesting how some would favor coastal blizzards. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted October 13, 2016 Share Posted October 13, 2016 5 minutes ago, dendrite said: To be honest I hope those big red "L"s track NW of your fanny all winter. I'm sure you would Dendrite, you never liked my personality and that is a shame. Oh well can't make everyone happy. I bet you were happy when I said that a blizzard was coming in 2015. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 13, 2016 Share Posted October 13, 2016 The Cape has a high variance in snow. Hell even 11-12 gave you a 10-12" deformation band while sand fell at my house. The only winter you got porked relative to SNE was 10-11. Otherwise, stopping making the Gods track lows over my fanny. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 13, 2016 Share Posted October 13, 2016 17 minutes ago, backedgeapproaching said: Sorry James.... Did Brian draw that in his sleep? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted October 13, 2016 Share Posted October 13, 2016 19 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Did Brian draw that in his sleep? Looks slightly more ideal for powderfreak. A lot of those are almost over BOS to just east of PWM. If I'm dendrite, I think I want canal cutters. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted October 13, 2016 Author Share Posted October 13, 2016 6 hours ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: I enjoyed Rebeccas outlook but she can do without the "it was exactly like I said would happen". Yea I like AWT much better Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted October 13, 2016 Share Posted October 13, 2016 38 minutes ago, USCAPEWEATHERAF said: I'm sure you would Dendrite, you never liked my personality and that is a shame. Oh well can't make everyone happy. I bet you were happy when I said that a blizzard was coming in 2015. I have nothing against you personally. We'd probably get along in person. But we've always had a consistently good balance of legit science and weenie on this forum and to be honest you lean excessively on the weenie side. Sometimes you and Kevin need to be reeled in when you get carried away. I feel like you throw a lot of wishcasts out there and just pad it with some vague science here and there. As for 2015, that would be a negative. I don't view any of your calls as having skill. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted October 13, 2016 Share Posted October 13, 2016 4 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: Looks slightly more ideal for powderfreak. A lot of those are almost over BOS to just east of PWM. If I'm dendrite, I think I want canal cutters. Yeah tough call. I don't want all of my snow to be deformation...a CCB here and there would be nice. Some of those BOS tracks scream the usual Tip-Dom screwzone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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