Winter 2016/2017 because its never too early

[Damage In Tolland]

Please not an 83 winter . Crushing Dec then it  ends 

[ORH_wxman]

1 minute ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Please not an 83 winter . Crushing Dec then it  ends 

 

Jan and Mar '84 were great...Feb sucked.

[USCAPEWEATHERAF]

I don't know what analog year would be good for this pattern coming up, but I believe December will be active.

[tamarack]

34 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

 

There is definitely precedent for big December cold after intense Nino...1983 would be the year.

 

But yeah, maybe it's recency bias coming into play. We've had two deplorable Decembers in a row, so it seems hard to imagine a good one.

Though December snow has been decent during my 18 years here - about 20% of winter's average - deep cold has been rather scarce.  I find it odd that I've recorded 11 March mornings at -20 or colder, and just one in December, and only four days below -15 (19 for March.)

Please not an 83 winter . Crushing Dec then it  ends 

Depends on location.  83-84 (in Ft. Kent) was the year my snow stake needed an extension - 61" wasn't tall enough.

[snowman19]

4 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

ENSO is very weak...not overly worried about it.

Here is exactly what he said so I don't misquote him or anything. 

[mitchnick]

33 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

Here is exactly what he said so I don't misquote him or anything. 

Don't forget to mention that the correlation is not as strong with weak Ninas. Plus, most winters had at least one decent -NAO month.

https://www.americanwx.com/bb/topic/48650-winter-2016-17-discussion/?do=findComment&comment=4276023

 

[NJwinter23]

Hey gang, long time no see. 

Although this is a weakish Nina by all typical accounts and certainly the door is open for other forcings to dominate at times, I do note that in conjunction with a -IOD, the atmospheric Nina state appears stronger than you would think from looking at the SSTs or generic ONI figures. Thats not good or bad really at this stage, but given the location of the last 30 days if that is persistent, I'm warming to the idea of your classic Nina Aleutian high look in the means this winter. The +QBO/Nina post above is interesting because I remember HM a long time ago noting that the Nina/Aleutian high will be more poleward in +QBO and flatter in a -QBO, even though the Polar vortex state tends to still follow the theory of stronger in +QBO/weaker -QBO. Note the last 3 cool/nina winters with +QBO all had cold and a poleward Aleutian high feature (13-14, 10-11, 08-09). The latter 2 (especially 10-11) had plenty of NAO/AO help to drive the cold, so I'm looking for the NAO to be a bigger modulating factor with north pac ridging being further west than a 13-14 in my opinion. Just some early thoughts.

[powderfreak]

5 hours ago, Tim198 said:

 

 

Just a question on these types of progs...probability of above/below/neutral doesn't make sense to me in this case.

Say this area has a 40-50% chance of above normal temps....does that mean there's a 50-60% chance of below normal?  How does neutral fit into a probability forecast?  

Or is it displaying the most likely answer based on a bunch of ensembles?  Like it ranks the probability of each option and go with the highest...such as 40% chance above normal, 30% chance of neutral, and 30% chance of below normal.  Since the 40% chance of above normal is the highest, that's what the model draws?

[stadiumwave]

18 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

Just a question on these types of progs...probability of above/below/neutral doesn't make sense to me in this case.

Say this area has a 40-50% chance of above normal temps....does that mean there's a 50-60% chance of below normal?  How does neutral fit into a probability forecast?  

Or is it displaying the most likely answer based on a bunch of ensembles?  Like it ranks the probability of each option and go with the highest...such as 40% chance above normal, 30% chance of neutral, and 30% chance of below normal.  Since the 40% chance of above normal is the highest, that's what the model draws?

Many seasoned Mets have said to ignore departures by seasonal models at this point & pay attention to 500mb. NMME doesn't even know what the shade blue looks like

[snowman19]

39 minutes ago, NJwinter23 said:

Hey gang, long time no see. 

Although this is a weakish Nina by all typical accounts and certainly the door is open for other forcings to dominate at times, I do note that in conjunction with a -IOD, the atmospheric Nina state appears stronger than you would think from looking at the SSTs or generic ONI figures. Thats not good or bad really at this stage, but given the location of the last 30 days if that is persistent, I'm warming to the idea of your classic Nina Aleutian high look in the means this winter. The +QBO/Nina post above is interesting because I remember HM a long time ago noting that the Nina/Aleutian high will be more poleward in +QBO and flatter in a -QBO, even though the Polar vortex state tends to still follow the theory of stronger in +QBO/weaker -QBO. Note the last 3 cool/nina winters with +QBO all had cold and a poleward Aleutian high feature (13-14, 10-11, 08-09). The latter 2 (especially 10-11) had plenty of NAO/AO help to drive the cold, so I'm looking for the NAO to be a bigger modulating factor with north pac ridging being further west than a 13-14 in my opinion. Just some early thoughts.

HM just tweeted this morning that you can see Classic -IOD forcing in the OLR. Is this OLR configuration altered further due to the modoki La Niña?  

[CoastalWx]

1 hour ago, NJwinter23 said:

Hey gang, long time no see. 

Although this is a weakish Nina by all typical accounts and certainly the door is open for other forcings to dominate at times, I do note that in conjunction with a -IOD, the atmospheric Nina state appears stronger than you would think from looking at the SSTs or generic ONI figures. Thats not good or bad really at this stage, but given the location of the last 30 days if that is persistent, I'm warming to the idea of your classic Nina Aleutian high look in the means this winter. The +QBO/Nina post above is interesting because I remember HM a long time ago noting that the Nina/Aleutian high will be more poleward in +QBO and flatter in a -QBO, even though the Polar vortex state tends to still follow the theory of stronger in +QBO/weaker -QBO. Note the last 3 cool/nina winters with +QBO all had cold and a poleward Aleutian high feature (13-14, 10-11, 08-09). The latter 2 (especially 10-11) had plenty of NAO/AO help to drive the cold, so I'm looking for the NAO to be a bigger modulating factor with north pac ridging being further west than a 13-14 in my opinion. Just some early thoughts.

This is a good post and why the Nina watch cancel from NCEP is kind of silly. Perhaps the SSTs aren't telling much, but the atmosohete is talking as we can see from this graphic. There is more to ENSO than SST anomalies and location...graphics like these help show that.

[powderfreak]

1 hour ago, stadiumwave said:

Many seasoned Mets have said to ignore departures by seasonal models at this point & pay attention to 500mb. NMME doesn't even know what the shade blue looks like

Yeah I know not to pay attention to the 2 meter temps...I actually wanted someone to explain to me how those probabilities work.

[CoastalWx]

500mb tells the story more than the srfc temps. Period. I could give to poopies what it shows at the srfc.

[powderfreak]

8 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

500mb tells the story more than the srfc temps. Period. I could give to poopies what it shows at the srfc.

Yeah of course.  Completely forgetting about what that map is telling us, pretend that's 500mb heights or something.  what the heck does a 40% chance of above normal mean?  A 60% chance of below normal?  And if so why wouldn't it paint 60% below?

[ORH_wxman]

1 minute ago, powderfreak said:

Yes but what the heck does a 40% chance of above mean?  A 60% chance of below normal?

 

It means 60% of the other two combined. So yeah, it's probably the highest of the 3 categories.

[CoastalWx]

4 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

Yes but what the heck does a 40% chance of above mean?  A 60% chance of below normal?

Honestly, I just look at the 500mb mean. I am a casual observer of the seasonal as they are voodoo most of the time. I don't bother at tercile means or whatever. Just show mean the mean, and look for Dprog/DT with each month.  I also admit I don't look a lot at NMME of CANsips much either. IIRC last year they weren't warm enough from what they showed this time last year.

[powderfreak]

3 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

 

It means 60% of the other two combined. So yeah, it's probably the highest of the 3 categories.

Gotcha.  Thanks.

So completely irrelevant it seems haha if you have to say there's a 40% chance of above normal and 60% chance of normal to below normal.

 

[CoastalWx]

1 minute ago, powderfreak said:

Gotcha.  Thanks.

So completely irrelevant it seems haha if you have to say there's a 40% chance of above normal and 60% chance of normal to below normal.

 

It's more for to see where the best probs of AN or BN are really. However, I just care about this area and if I see what the mean is..that's all I need. I don't need to overthink this stuff.

[ORH_wxman]

2 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

Gotcha.  Thanks.

So completely irrelevant it seems haha if you have to say there's a 40% chance of above normal and 60% chance of normal to below normal.

 

 

It's useless anyway...it's amazing how disconnected the sfc temps on some of those are when you look at the H5 anomalies.

[Damage In Tolland]

7 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

Gotcha.  Thanks.

So completely irrelevant it seems haha if you have to say there's a 40% chance of above normal and 60% chance of normal to below normal.

 

Further backs up how probabilities are worthless 

[uncle W]

the winters of 1980-81 and 1983-84 followed an el nino and was cold overall...Dec-Jan were cold...February was mild both years...March was cold both years with the biggest snowfall of the season in NYC...

[andyhb]

1 hour ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Further backs up how probabilities are worthless 

Probability is basically the backbone of any forecast you see today.

/discussion

[Ginx snewx]

1 minute ago, andyhb said:

Probability is basically the backbone of any forecast you see today.

/discussion

Probabilities transmitted to the GP are useless /discussion 

[andyhb]

1 minute ago, Ginx snewx said:

Probabilities transmitted to the GP are useless /discussion 

That's the point of dissemination methods and coordinating with the social sciences. To say "probabilities are worthless" is mindless.

[CoastalWx]

Probability is powerful if explained well. If you are Joe Public it won't mean much to see a graphic with probabilities. However, explain the thought process and you really have a powerful tool. Too many people throw **** on the wall to see if it sticks. You need to add value and explain the products. 

[Ginx snewx]

26 minutes ago, andyhb said:

That's the point of dissemination methods and coordinating with the social sciences. To say "probabilities are worthless" is mindless.

Pretty sure he was speaking from a GP perspective. Face it LR forecasts have a long long way to go to accurately depict seasonal patterns. Easy when Super Nino hits, best of luck this year.

[Damage In Tolland]

1 hour ago, andyhb said:

That's the point of dissemination methods and coordinating with the social sciences. To say "probabilities are worthless" is mindless.

They are absolutely worthless when forecasting on tv or to the public. They aren't used properly or conveyed or understood.  People want a forecast not a probability graph that is meant to mask uncertainty. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

So, which are you guys going with....wxbell, or eurowx??

[40/70 Benchmark]

The truth is that because we have such an obscene amount of data, there are so many damn correlations that you are going to find one to support either argument every year.

I got burned going for a slightly neg NAO last year, largely because Al Marino had some very trust worthy correlations that were decidedly in favor of a neg NAO....go back and check my outlook, as I cited them.

Miserable failure.

Our samples are still so small in the grand scheme of things, that you can have a correlation go 25/25, and it still doesn't really mean a damn.....it will take you another 150 years to realize that its worthless.

You just have to weigh everything out...thus far, the only info supporting a +NAO are the +QBO and the modoki la nina.

[SnowHole413]

And even so, 10-11 had a Modoki La Niña with a +QBO with a -NAO in December and January. But we still don't know the implications of having a +qbo for this long, right after a potent Nino. Right now I'd lean towards a front loaded winter that relaxes in feb, but could come roaring back in march with dropping qbo and low solar, but what do I know.