Winter 2016/2017 because its never too early

[CoastalWx]

They looked fantastic. I sure hope as hell they are right. 

[SnowHole413]

oh man you guys are getting me ecstatic.... almost forgot what it was like to have snow and cold in December

[weathafella]

6 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Early winter.. early spring?

Seasons in seasons.

[Damage In Tolland]

40 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

They looked fantastic. I sure hope as hell they are right. 

Boobs or the monthlies?

[stadiumwave]

2 hours ago, ORH_wxman said:

They are really good for dec and Jan. Huge -NAO and -EPO in December. Closer to neutral EPO in January but still good -NAO. February looks like. Positive EPO and negative PNA pattern. NAO stay negative though so maybe still chances. But I've never seen the euro seasonal show such a robust pattern like it does for December. I guess we'll see how it looks next month. 

 

I was doing some research on weak -ENSO falls transitioning to weak Nina in winter...BUT that had a -AO average for Oct. There were not many but 8 of the 13 had a -AO average for DJF...with most of that in DEC/JAN. Ironic that Euro kind of reflects that....if indeed Oct ends up averaging -AO. 

[Typhoon Tip]

1 hour ago, ORH_wxman said:

I hope it's right. That's the best December pattern I've seen. Closest thing to it is probably December 1976. December 2000 would be a good comp too though the lowest height anomalies are a bit east of that month. 

i was a really small child in '76 so don't remember  - i do recall some frighteningly loud overnight CAA events during the winters between '75 and '79 in general ... and of course, the Jan 25-27 "Cleveland Superbomb" has yet to be defeated in terms of tactile experience...  In fact, that's probably the best 4-year aggregate (so far) of my life.  If we were getting synoptically whacked during those winters, 0 F air blasting across Lake Michigan and brought frequent haze-flakes and smoke snow...

But really?  Better than December 1995?     wow, I thought I'd never see a Dec like that again - Granted, i'm still < than 5 decades of life on this planet which is a small-ish sample set. 

[Typhoon Tip]

an unrestrained November; an obnoxious early winter wouldn't be unprecedented given the look. 

 

[Typhoon Tip]

I still believe the better teleconnector for N/A cold loading is the NE Pacific, and that is designed by idiosyncratic anomalies in +PNA's that are Pacific biased, combined with flat contribution off the EPO domain space; those are predominant in guiding the lay-out of intra-cold seasonal temperature anomaly distribution(s). 

Having said that, the NAO is important - what I am still constantly finding in my own case-by-case analysis is that the NAO is in a state of flux during the run-up and in situ significant events; it's enough so that I am not entirely convinced the NAO is NOT merely resulting to the same overall governing scenarios that gave rise to significant upstream events (over North America).  

Still, that backs us into a usable assumption that -NAO is preferred for winter-weather and cold distribution because regardless of 'how' the correlation comes about, it is real nonetheless.  

We must also keep in mine that the Arctic Oscillation shares spatial domain space with both the EPO and NAO. Because of that, the three teleconnectors really need to be processed scientifically as separate influences, as much as in an integration, in order to produce a truer understanding of contributory circumstances.  Something I'm sure is considered enough. These teleconnectors correlate not just to regions, but lag-wise (time dependent) upon one another.  

 

[mitchnick]

Yeehaw ORHwxman and CoastalWx!  Lol

Maybe I'm just good luck when I slither into your forum? 

[stadiumwave]

Winter's with a -ENSO with values above -1.0 & a +QBO since 1950:

 

 

 

 

FWIW, 5 of the 9 winters had a -AMO

 

 

 

 

[CoastalWx]

Interesting stat. I hope it comes true.

[JC-CT]

I still believe the better teleconnector for N/A cold loading is the NE Pacific, and that is designed by idiosyncratic anomalies in +PNA's that are Pacific biased, combined with flat contribution off the EPO domain space; those are predominant in guiding the lay-out of intra-cold seasonal temperature anomaly distribution(s). 

Having said that, the NAO is important - what I am still constantly finding in my own case-by-case analysis is that the NAO is in a state of flux during the run-up and in situ significant events; it's enough so that I am not entirely convinced the NAO is NOT merely resulting to the same overall governing scenarios that gave rise to significant upstream events (over North America).  

Still, that backs us into a usable assumption that -NAO is preferred for winter-weather and cold distribution because regardless of 'how' the correlation comes about, it is real nonetheless.  

We must also keep in mine that the Arctic Oscillation shares spatial domain space with both the EPO and NAO. Because of that, the three teleconnectors really need to be processed scientifically as separate influences, as much as in an integration, in order to produce a truer understanding of contributory circumstances.  Something I'm sure is considered enough. These teleconnectors correlate not just to regions, but lag-wise (time dependent) upon one another.  

 

It requires study.

[snowman19]

7 hours ago, stadiumwave said:

Winter's with a -ENSO with values above -1.0 & a +QBO since 1950:

 

 

 

 

FWIW, 5 of the 9 winters had a -AMO

 

 

 

 

How many of them were modoki La Ninas? Griteater over in the Southeast forum had a good post yesterday. He found a study which showed a huge difference in the winter NAO between East Pacific and Modoki Ninas. Here's the graphic he posted  

[CoastalWx]

In theory, a EPAC Nina I think would be good because that would likely mean the western areas have waters near or perhaps slight AN. Those warmer waters could promote tropical forcing that is more favorable for a -NAO. For now, the anomalies are more central areas into region 4. 

[stadiumwave]

1 hour ago, snowman19 said:

How many of them were modoki La Ninas? Griteater over in the Southeast forum had a good post yesterday. He found a study which showed a huge difference in the winter NAO between East Pacific and Modoki Ninas. Here's the graphic he posted  

 

One of the reasons I posted that is because of all the subjective tweets & posts I read in places. For instance, someone that hates winter in the east will be saying things like

"Well if there's a +QBO then it'll be warm in the east"

"If there's an -AMO there will not be a -NAO"

"The upcoming pattern with a GOA trough will eliminate the warm SST's, so forget winter -EPO"

Then there are others who love winter in the east & say subjective things also.

Folks make these statements without doing research. I read them & roll my eyes. Everyone needs to be objective & know there are exceptions to anything.

On your question, the analog blend puts coolest anomalies in region 3. So, not quiet the Modoki. However, we still do not know (1) how strong or weak Niña will be for DJF

(2) exactly where ENSO forcing will be for DJF

#1 is extremely important. During a weak La Nina or weak El Nino the forcing is much weaker & it allows other forcings to be a more dominate driver.

If the Nina or Nino is strong then it dominates the pattern, but if its weak the location of anomalies becomes less important. I didn't say it doesn't matter at all but it matters much less....per data.

Right now blanket prediction for winter need to be on hold until 3rd-4th week of NOV....in my opinion. 

 

[ORH_wxman]

Lol. Gotta love Twitter. I guess those who think a -AMO can't produce a -NAO erased the 1960s and 1970s from their data. 

 

With weak ENSO the pattern will be more influenced by other factors that might typically get overwhelmed in a stronger ENSO winter. So this is a difficult year to pin down the mean pattern features.

[stadiumwave]

 

Bingo!

[J Paul Gordon]

So since the data as we have them are inconclusive, we get to pick what we want. But, that is the way it is around here no matter how firm or weak the data. Some of us range from our bipolar highs to our depressive lows over the course of a day, or an hour, or even minutes, depending on the proximity of a storm at 384 hours or the current strength of the Aleutian low, the SE ridge, etc. etc.

What good is having a forum like this if you can't chuck the science and go into hysterics at the drop of a pin?

My bet: 1-2F AN October; -1F to +1F November (meaning normal); -2F+ December; -3F+ January; N to slightly AN February. Basis? The analog years given above broadly fall into that kind of range and I remember the early to mid sixties and beyond quite well. Nothing hysteric in either direction, but good solid cold during December and January. Snow is always the luck of the draw when it comes to tracks. Probably AN for most of central and southern NE, north is a toss, but they'll be plenty white no matter what.

So this is a guess based on what seem to be pretty good analogs and on what the mets among us seem to be saying.

But I'd be the first to admit I'm a rank amateur when it comes to this stuff. If it was a wish list it would be February 2015 starting as soon as the leaves are down and hanging solid until the end of March. That ain't gonna happen except in my dreams. At least it looks better than last year.

[ORH_wxman]

2 minutes ago, J Paul Gordon said:

So since the data as we have them are inconclusive, we get to pick what we want. But, that is the way it is around here no matter how firm or weak the data. Some of us range from our bipolar highs to our depressive lows over the course of a day, or an hour, or even minutes, depending on the proximity of a storm at 384 hours or the current strength of the Aleutian low, the SE ridge, etc. etc.

What good is having a forum like this if you can't chuck the science and go into hysterics at the drop of a pin?

My bet: 1-2F AN October; -1F to +1F November (meaning normal); -2F+ December; -3F+ January; N to slightly AN February. Basis? The analog years given above broadly fall into that kind of range and I remember the early to mid sixties and beyond quite well. Nothing hysteric in either direction, but good solid cold during December and January. Snow is always the luck of the draw when it comes to tracks. Probably AN for most of central and southern NE, north is a toss, but they'll be plenty white no matter what.

So this is a guess based on what seem to be pretty good analogs and on what the mets among us seem to be saying.

But I'd be the first to admit I'm a rank amateur when it comes to this stuff. If it was a wish list it would be February 2015 starting as soon as the leaves are down and hanging solid until the end of March. That ain't gonna happen except in my dreams. At least it looks better than last year.

 

Well the Euro monthlies would agree with that forecast...except they might have December colder than January, but both below normal.

 

Euro has actually been doing fairly well...esp depicting the NAO region and EPO region the past few winters. So hopefully it has a good idea again, because this would be the first solidly -NAO winter since 2012-2013 if it is correct. It also has a mega-EPO block north of AK in December...almost up toward Wrangel Island and a PNA ridge too, which coupled with the Atlantic is an extremely cold signal.

 

We'll see what it shows next month, but December isn't far out, so I'd be surprised if it totally flipped.

[Tim198]

28 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

 

Well the Euro monthlies would agree with that forecast...except they might have December colder than January, but both below normal.

 

Euro has actually been doing fairly well...esp depicting the NAO region and EPO region the past few winters. So hopefully it has a good idea again, because this would be the first solidly -NAO winter since 2012-2013 if it is correct. It also has a mega-EPO block north of AK in December...almost up toward Wrangel Island and a PNA ridge too, which coupled with the Atlantic is an extremely cold signal.

 

We'll see what it shows next month, but December isn't far out, so I'd be surprised if it totally flipped.

Even though the EURO has done well in recent years I have to treat it with some skepticism. Why? Because it's an outlier compared to most of the other seasonal models. The NMME, CanSIPS, POAMA and UKMET all have a warm look for the east and most of the CONUS in general.

 

[Damage In Tolland]

I think most of us here would take a cold, snowy late Nov thru Jan and then torch ... little snow Feb, Mor... as the Euro seasonal depicts. It's been so long since winter has set in early and we had a great snowy holiday season.  I've often said this over the years.. if we have lose winter months.. let's lose Feb and Mor

[40/70 Benchmark]

41 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

 

Well the Euro monthlies would agree with that forecast...except they might have December colder than January, but both below normal.

 

Euro has actually been doing fairly well...esp depicting the NAO region and EPO region the past few winters. So hopefully it has a good idea again, because this would be the first solidly -NAO winter since 2012-2013 if it is correct. It also has a mega-EPO block north of AK in December...almost up toward Wrangel Island and a PNA ridge too, which coupled with the Atlantic is an extremely cold signal.

 

We'll see what it shows next month, but December isn't far out, so I'd be surprised if it totally flipped.

That is how to achieve a snowy December on the CP.

[40/70 Benchmark]

5 minutes ago, Tim198 said:

Even though the EURO has done well in recent years I have to treat it with some skepticism. Why? Because it's an outlier compared to most of the other seasonal models. The NMME, CanSIPS, POAMA and UKMET all have a warm look for the east and most of the CONUS in general.

 

Timmy, none of the other seasonals are worth a damn.

[ORH_wxman]

Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Timmy, none of the other seasonals are worth a damn.

 

I also prefer to see H5 anomalies and not what they are spitting out at 2 meters...some of these seasonal models are climate models with a global warming component to them so they like to forecast a bunch of oranges at the surface even if the upper air doesn't support it. (even the Euro did this in 2014-2015...it had huge AK block with some downstream troughing, but decided that was like +1 to +2 at the surface over the Great Lakes and NE which is obviously pure hogwash)

[40/70 Benchmark]

3 hours ago, snowman19 said:

How many of them were modoki La Ninas? Griteater over in the Southeast forum had a good post yesterday. He found a study which showed a huge difference in the winter NAO between East Pacific and Modoki Ninas. Here's the graphic he posted  

ENSO is very weak...not overly worried about it.

[40/70 Benchmark]

On October 9, 2016 at 2:16 PM, ORH_wxman said:

They are really good for dec and Jan. Huge -NAO and -EPO in December. Closer to neutral EPO in January but still good -NAO. February looks like. Positive EPO and negative PNA pattern. NAO stay negative though so maybe still chances. But I've never seen the euro seasonal show such a robust pattern like it does for December. I guess we'll see how it looks next month. 

This makes sense to me because I have never really understood the December cancel stuff.

Scott and I were discussing this the other day.

[USCAPEWEATHERAF]

With a weak -ENSO period upcoming for this winter season, I suspect the northern stream to be the dominant weather maker across the eastern US.  Anyone north of 40N latitude should be able to sustain arctic air intrusions and have clipper systems come through the flow and dump copious amounts of snow in SNE.

[Tim198]

4 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

 

I also prefer to see H5 anomalies and not what they are spitting out at 2 meters...some of these seasonal models are climate models with a global warming component to them so they like to forecast a bunch of oranges at the surface even if the upper air doesn't support it. (even the Euro did this in 2014-2015...it had huge AK block with some downstream troughing, but decided that was like +1 to +2 at the surface over the Great Lakes and NE which is obviously pure hogwash)

The UKMET forecast I posted is the H5 anomaly forecast. It supports warmth with a strong WAR. The CanSIPS also has a strong WAR. I don't have the forecasts from the NMME and POAMA.

 

[ORH_wxman]

2 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

This makes sense to me because I have never really understood the December cancel stuff.

Scott and I were discussing this the other day.

 

There is definitely precedent for big December cold after intense Nino...1983 would be the year.

 

But yeah, maybe it's recency bias coming into play. We've had two deplorable Decembers in a row, so it seems hard to imagine a good one.

[ORH_wxman]

2 minutes ago, Tim198 said:

The UKMET forecast I posted is the H5 anomaly forecast. It supports warmth with a strong WAR. The CanSIPS also has a strong WAR. I don't have the forecasts from the NMME and POAMA.

 

 

UKMET has conflicting signals though...it has a potent PNA ridge and -EPO and also a SE ridge....that's not common at all. The Canadian definitely looks the warmest because it has troughing further west in the northern rockies.