CoastalWx Posted October 4, 2016 Share Posted October 4, 2016 13 minutes ago, mitchnick said: When do your "must read" discussions of the Euro monthlies begin? I haven't looked in like two months..lol. The one I saw was weird with oranges and reds everywhere. It won't be like that in reality, but seasonal models love to display the AGW aspect a little too much. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stadiumwave Posted October 4, 2016 Share Posted October 4, 2016 1 hour ago, CoastalWx said: Are they talking about the very far NPAC or NPAC in general? The whole basin was pretty warm. I've seen work from Paul Roundy, Ventrice etc showing the Tropical forcing anomalies and then resulting H5 pattern. It made sense to me. I don't see how cold ocean waters that are above normal have the energy to completely overwhelm a hemispheric pattern. It would have to be done by conduction since convection and latent heat don't exist like it does further south. We see GOAK troughs over the warmer NE PAC all the time and bring it back to normal or below. I think it helps feedback, but I don't agree that the warmer NE PAC waters are the main reason for the ridging there. Far N. Pac. according to the rest of the study. Like I said...my thinking has always been more along the lines of yours. There's a poster over at Accuweather who's a Met student & a brilliant young man. He agreed with you & I but he recently had a discussion about this specific issue with a renowned professor who strongly disagreed. He said the discussion was way over his head so he couldn't really explain what the professor said. I'd love to know the explanation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sugarloaf1989 Posted October 4, 2016 Share Posted October 4, 2016 What are the chances that ridging remains in place for most of this winter in NE and it stays warm and dry? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 4, 2016 Share Posted October 4, 2016 Well I think we have already seen a change. I can't recall a summer pattern that held onto winter. Even last winter wasn't dry despite it being warm. As long as we don't see a big one eyed monster over AK giving the CONUS a massive Chinook wind...I wouldn't worry too much. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 4, 2016 Share Posted October 4, 2016 23 minutes ago, stadiumwave said: Far N. Pac. according to the rest of the study. Like I said...my thinking has always been more along the lines of yours. There's a poster over at Accuweather who's a Met student & a brilliant young man. He agreed with you & I but he recently had a discussion about this specific issue with a renowned professor who strongly disagreed. He said the discussion was way over his head so he couldn't really explain what the professor said. I'd love to know the explanation. It's an interesting topic. I open to all aspects. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
J Paul Gordon Posted October 4, 2016 Share Posted October 4, 2016 Now that the name of the one eyed monster has been uttered... what's the set up look like at this point? I need a meteorological explanation for dummies here, preferably by a met or an amateur who is respected by the mets. I'll go get the CPC maps for those who want to hear about endless AGW influenced warmth and drought. But it would be great to hear some whys and wherefores from the really smart guys (and gals) on this board. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
J Paul Gordon Posted October 4, 2016 Share Posted October 4, 2016 I'm sure everyone here read this weeks ago. But here's the CPC link. And hey, you know its a product of the US government, so its gotta be good!: http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/long_range/fxus05.html And here are the monthly temps (basically the same as they had out in August). Precip is basically EC throughout. http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/long_range/t14.2c.gif http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/long_range/t01.2c.gif http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/long_range/t02.2c.gif http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/long_range/t03.2c.gif http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/long_range/t04.2c.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sugarloaf1989 Posted October 4, 2016 Share Posted October 4, 2016 1 hour ago, CoastalWx said: Well I think we have already seen a change. I can't recall a summer pattern that held onto winter. Even last winter wasn't dry despite it being warm. As long as we don't see a big one eyed monster over AK giving the CONUS a massive Chinook wind...I wouldn't worry too much. I know this is OT, but the temperature at BDL has been above normal for 11 out of the last 12 months, is that something exceptional for this region? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 4, 2016 Share Posted October 4, 2016 13 minutes ago, Sugarloaf1989 said: I know this is OT, but the temperature at BDL has been above normal for 11 out of the last 12 months, is that something exceptional for this region? It is, but I think a lot of that is tied to El Nino. There is a lot of warmth on this planet thanks to it. Now you can argue the AGW aspect combining with it, but it's a much smaller percentage compared to Nino warmth. Of course you need to be observant of anomalies too. If a month is +0.3 or -0.3...is it really that AN or BN? Also, BDL ASOS accuracy may come into question as we discussed before.I think you are better off at getting the broader picture from a state or regional scale, vs just one station. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 4, 2016 Share Posted October 4, 2016 5 hours ago, mitchnick said: When do your "must read" discussions of the Euro monthlies begin? Lets wait until the 8th when the seasonal comes out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted October 4, 2016 Share Posted October 4, 2016 1 hour ago, CoastalWx said: Lets wait until the 8th when the seasonal comes out. I know. I was just giving you a little "reminder" for when it does. Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted October 5, 2016 Share Posted October 5, 2016 On 10/3/2016 at 10:12 AM, uncle W said: the AO is tanking now and forecast to be near -4 soon...the nao is also forecast to go negative but with lesser agreement...could be the beginning of a -ao/nao season... here is a list of the lowest AO Octobers along with what the AO number was for January...some great winters followed a very negative AO October... 1960...-1.187...-1.506...historic winter... 1966...-1.077...-0.576...historic winter... 1968...-1.013...-2.967...close to historic... 1974...-1.024....1.595...mild with less snow... 1976...-0.804...-3.767...historic cold... 1979...-1.243...-2.066...AO was no help up here... 1981...-1.167...-0.883...historic cold... 2002...-1.489...-0.472...historic winter... 2006...-1.029....2.034...mild snowless with one cold month... 2009...-1.540...-2.587...historic winter... 2012...-1.514...-0.610...mild with average snow... 2014...-1.134....1.092...close to historic despite the plus ao in January... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stadiumwave Posted October 5, 2016 Share Posted October 5, 2016 5 hours ago, uncle W said: here is a list of the lowest AO Octobers along with what the AO number was for January...some great winters followed a very negative AO October... 1960...-1.187...-1.506...historic winter... 1966...-1.077...-0.576...historic winter... 1968...-1.013...-2.967...close to historic... 1974...-1.024....1.595...mild with less snow... 1976...-0.804...-3.767...historic cold... 1979...-1.243...-2.066...AO was no help up here... 1981...-1.167...-0.883...historic cold... 2002...-1.489...-0.472...historic winter... 2006...-1.029....2.034...mild snowless with one cold month... 2009...-1.540...-2.587...historic winter... 2012...-1.514...-0.610...mild with average snow... 2014...-1.134....1.092...close to historic despite the plus ao in January... It appears a -AO has a stronger correlation to winter than a -NAO...go figure that one. Thanks for posting! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted October 5, 2016 Share Posted October 5, 2016 6 hours ago, stadiumwave said: It appears a -AO has a stronger correlation to winter than a -NAO...go figure that one. Thanks for posting! I looked at the lowest nao Octobers on record and came up with this list... 1955...-1.47 1960...-1.73 1968...-2.30 1973...-1.24 1980...-1.77 1981...-1.35 1988...-1.08 1992...-1.76 1997...-1.70 2002...-2.28 2003...-1.26 2004...-1.10 2006...-2.24 2009...-1.03 2012...-2.06 2013...-1.28 2014...-1.27 http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/pna/norm.nao.monthly.b5001.current.ascii.table Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted October 6, 2016 Share Posted October 6, 2016 CMC brings the polar vortex over our side of the Hemisphere, dumps a boat load of cold air into the central US by day 10 with a clipper. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted October 6, 2016 Share Posted October 6, 2016 10 hours ago, uncle W said: I looked at the lowest nao Octobers on record and came up with this list... 1955...-1.47 1960...-1.73 1968...-2.30 1973...-1.24 1980...-1.77 1981...-1.35 1988...-1.08 1992...-1.76 1997...-1.70 2002...-2.28 2003...-1.26 2004...-1.10 2006...-2.24 2009...-1.03 2012...-2.06 2013...-1.28 2014...-1.27 http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/pna/norm.nao.monthly.b5001.current.ascii.table A lot of great winters but a few duds sprinkled into that list. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
J Paul Gordon Posted October 6, 2016 Share Posted October 6, 2016 Any links to predictions for the winter 16-17 up yet? Prefer those by mets and seasoned amateurs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted October 6, 2016 Share Posted October 6, 2016 7 hours ago, weathafella said: A lot of great winters but a few duds sprinkled into that list. there are always some duds with an analog package...last year was close to 1982-83 for sensible weather...it was on many analog packages...this year many analogs had a cold December and white Christmas...If this doesn't work out the mild starting analogs or all out mild winter analogs could win out...you can't disregard analogs that sucked...right now I'll go with the weenie ones until realty sets in... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted October 7, 2016 Share Posted October 7, 2016 On October 4, 2016 at 11:11 AM, CoastalWx said: Well I think we have already seen a change. I can't recall a summer pattern that held onto winter. Even last winter wasn't dry despite it being warm. As long as we don't see a big one eyed monster over AK giving the CONUS a massive Chinook wind...I wouldn't worry too much. 2000-01 and 1994-95 are pretty close. 2000-01 was a better example, 94-95 was more the drought and precip pattern that held. As a matter of fact it more or less held all the way to October 1995 before changing. The summer 2000 pattern was miserable and it seemed aside from a 2 week period in early September where record heat occurred in some areas of the East and South it held right into early winter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 7, 2016 Share Posted October 7, 2016 Did you mean 01-02? 00-01 was pretty stormy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
78Blizzard Posted October 8, 2016 Share Posted October 8, 2016 The Arctic has seen the quickest refreeze ever recorded with the extent of sea ice growing 405,000 square miles in just three weeks since the September 10, 2016 minimum. The Danish Meteorological Institute said that refreezing is happening at the fastest rate since its daily records began in 1987. Any thoughts on how this may or may not affect our winter here? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted October 8, 2016 Share Posted October 8, 2016 Not worried at all about the summer pattern. Largely irrelevent. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hitman Posted October 9, 2016 Share Posted October 9, 2016 Forecast from the hudson valley weather guys. http://www.hudsonvalleyweather.com/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted October 9, 2016 Share Posted October 9, 2016 A we head into a neutral ENSO season period for winter, the northern jet stream will be our primary weather provider, with cold shots and possibly very cold shots and coastal snowstorms. I believe this season will be a lot like the 04-05 winter in that the coastal plain will be favored for above normal snowfall. I think Northern New England will do well as well in the beginning of the winter as it stair steps downward in temperatures allows the Northern New England area to gain snowfall at the beginning of December through Early January, while the Coastal Plain sees snowfall on average from Late December through late March. This is just my opinion and it is based on the current state of the -AO, -NAO and +PNA pattern we are in for October, expect November to be warmer a little bit warmer on average followed by sustained cold air for December, with heavy snow in the later part of the month, towards Christmas and beyond, similar to the year of 04-05, in which the coastal plain received their first paste job around December 26-27th, Brewster, MA got 18" of heavy wet snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted October 9, 2016 Share Posted October 9, 2016 CoastalWx ...Euro monthlies? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted October 9, 2016 Share Posted October 9, 2016 3 hours ago, mitchnick said: CoastalWx ...Euro monthlies? They are really good for dec and Jan. Huge -NAO and -EPO in December. Closer to neutral EPO in January but still good -NAO. February looks like. Positive EPO and negative PNA pattern. NAO stay negative though so maybe still chances. But I've never seen the euro seasonal show such a robust pattern like it does for December. I guess we'll see how it looks next month. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LoveSN+ Posted October 9, 2016 Share Posted October 9, 2016 I have to live through the winter posts on this forum since the Ohio valley one is much less active. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted October 9, 2016 Share Posted October 9, 2016 9 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: They are really good for dec and Jan. Huge -NAO and -EPO in December. Closer to neutral EPO in January but still good -NAO. February looks like. Positive EPO and negative PNA pattern. NAO stay negative though so maybe still chances. But I've never seen the euro seasonal show such a robust pattern like it does for December. I guess we'll see how it looks next month. ASOUT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted October 9, 2016 Share Posted October 9, 2016 1 hour ago, weathafella said: ASOUT I hope it's right. That's the best December pattern I've seen. Closest thing to it is probably December 1976. December 2000 would be a good comp too though the lowest height anomalies are a bit east of that month. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted October 9, 2016 Share Posted October 9, 2016 Early winter.. early spring? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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