40/70 Benchmark Posted September 15, 2016 Share Posted September 15, 2016 On September 13, 2016 at 8:05 PM, mitchnick said: I don't think this was posted in the thread. JB/Weatherbell early call for winter. http://www.weatherbell.com/winter-2016-17-forecast Thank you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted September 15, 2016 Share Posted September 15, 2016 On September 13, 2016 at 8:18 PM, Ginx snewx said: First call Dec to March equal chances for all on all metrics Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted September 15, 2016 Share Posted September 15, 2016 I'm going way above normal snow for most 12/1/16-3/31/17. Temperatures normal in December, cold January and February, above normal in March.Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted September 15, 2016 Author Share Posted September 15, 2016 5 hours ago, weathafella said: I'm going way above normal snow for most 12/1/16-3/31/17. Temperatures normal in December, cold January and February, above normal in March. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Back of my mind is an 80's meh climo normal pattern with little excitemnt Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted September 16, 2016 Share Posted September 16, 2016 6 hours ago, Ginx snewx said: Back of my mind is an 80's meh climo normal pattern with little excitemnt After last year, I'll take climo and run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sebastiaan1973 Posted September 16, 2016 Share Posted September 16, 2016 I'm surprised nobody uses overhere GLOSEA5. http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/research/climate/seasonal-to-decadal/gpc-outlooks/ens-mean Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted September 16, 2016 Share Posted September 16, 2016 20 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: After last year, I'll take climo and run. After the last 4-5 years, I'll take climo snow and run, haha. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted September 17, 2016 Author Share Posted September 17, 2016 Boy that -EPO shown on a lot of seasonals has all of sudden got me a little more excited. Give me the cold Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted September 17, 2016 Author Share Posted September 17, 2016 Pretty much in total agreement with his philosophy and methods for the upcoming winter. Great read http://www.stormhamster.com/winter1617.htm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted September 17, 2016 Share Posted September 17, 2016 Crankywxguy? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted September 17, 2016 Share Posted September 17, 2016 6 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: Crankywxguy? It lost me after a few sentences. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted September 17, 2016 Share Posted September 17, 2016 54 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: Pretty much in total agreement with his philosophy and methods for the upcoming winter. Great read http://www.stormhamster.com/winter1617.htm Yeah his thought process made sense to a degree. Liked 4 of the 8 storm tracks too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted September 17, 2016 Share Posted September 17, 2016 On 9/6/2016 at 8:43 PM, Baroclinic Zone said: The post is below the arrow. So basically anything is possible giventhat graphic. Nice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cleetussnow Posted September 17, 2016 Share Posted September 17, 2016 26 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: So basically anything is possible giventhat graphic. Nice. That's the last 8 runs of the GFS for a particular storm. In no particular order. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted September 17, 2016 Share Posted September 17, 2016 2 hours ago, Ginx snewx said: Boy that -EPO shown on a lot of seasonals has all of sudden got me a little more excited. Give me the cold All going according to plan. Get on my back big man-I'll take you there! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted September 17, 2016 Share Posted September 17, 2016 17 minutes ago, weathafella said: All going according to plan. Get on my back big man-I'll take you there! Jerry what's got you all jazzed up? Gut feeling? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted September 17, 2016 Share Posted September 17, 2016 1 minute ago, powderfreak said: Jerry what's got you all jazzed up? Gut feeling? Viagra? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted September 17, 2016 Share Posted September 17, 2016 Jerry what's got you all jazzed up? Gut feeling?Global ssta profile in September-does not suck.Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted September 17, 2016 Author Share Posted September 17, 2016 1 hour ago, CoastalWx said: So basically anything is possible giventhat graphic. Nice. You obviously didn't read it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted September 17, 2016 Author Share Posted September 17, 2016 2 hours ago, CoastalWx said: It lost me after a few sentences. Doesn't surprise me in the least Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted September 17, 2016 Author Share Posted September 17, 2016 2 hours ago, Damage In Tolland said: Crankywxguy? yea his weather links page is awesome too http://www.stormhamster.com/index.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted September 18, 2016 Share Posted September 18, 2016 13 hours ago, Ginx snewx said: Pretty much in total agreement with his philosophy and methods for the upcoming winter. Great read http://www.stormhamster.com/winter1617.htm He is exaggerating the impact of the SSTs imo. Every season has a "catch" phrase, or area of focus....2 years ago it was the polar vortex, last year it was the SAI, and this year it seems to be the warm ssts. Get a few cold blasts through, and poof. SSTs are very malleable....never mind lake temps, which he says will greatly modify airmasses. The Atlantic is simply not going to "push back" with warmth, with the exception of during a hugger, or inland runner....but our weather moves from west-to--east. If you want to cite a se ridge, then ok.....but that isn't the atlantic "fighting back" with warmth. I'll by a meh winter, but not his rationale. Silly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted September 18, 2016 Share Posted September 18, 2016 All the warm great lakes imply to me is the likelihood of a hell of LES season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted September 18, 2016 Share Posted September 18, 2016 16 hours ago, Ginx snewx said: You obviously didn't read it I glanced through it. Weenie stuff. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted September 18, 2016 Share Posted September 18, 2016 5 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: He is exaggerating the impact of the SSTs imo. Every season has a "catch" phrase, or area of focus....2 years ago it was the polar vortex, last year it was the SAI, and this year it seems to be the warm ssts. Get a few cold blasts through, and poof. SSTs are very malleable....never mind lake temps, which he says will greatly modify airmasses. The Atlantic is simply not going to "push back" with warmth, with the exception of during a hugger, or inland runner....but our weather moves from west-to--east. If you want to cite a se ridge, then ok.....but that isn't the atlantic "fighting back" with warmth. I'll by a meh winter, but not his rationale. Silly. Same with NPAC ssts. They are the result of the pattern, not influencing it. Easily overwhelmed by a NPAC trough. It may feedback some, but I think they can be overrated. The Atlantic off the east coast may have some power since the waters are warm and warm water like that has more of a say. Warm being say 70s vs 40s and 50s. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted September 18, 2016 Share Posted September 18, 2016 2 hours ago, CoastalWx said: Same with NPAC ssts. They are the result of the pattern, not influencing it. Easily overwhelmed by a NPAC trough. It may feedback some, but I think they can be overrated. The Atlantic off the east coast may have some power since the waters are warm and warm water like that has more of a say. Warm being say 70s vs 40s and 50s. Vehemently agree. We are having a discussion about that topic in the NYC thread. I'm of the opinion that the chief driver of the 2013-15 anomalous/meridional geopotential heights likely emanated from the tropical Pacific, rather than the NE PAC. As you noted, there might be a positive feedback/maintenance aspect to the mid/high latitude SST's, but from a purely physical standpoint, it's difficult for me to buy that cold/very cold water temperatures can exert an influence sufficient to drive the pattern. The paper posted by bluewave in the thread corroborates our thinking regarding the tropical western Pacific being most important. https://www.americanwx.com/bb/topic/48093-transition-from-el-niño-to-la-niña-discussion/?page=11 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted September 18, 2016 Share Posted September 18, 2016 17 minutes ago, Isotherm said: Vehemently agree. We are having a discussion about that topic in the NYC thread. I'm of the opinion that the chief driver of the 2013-15 anomalous/meridional geopotential heights likely emanated from the tropical Pacific, rather than the NE PAC. As you noted, there might be a positive feedback/maintenance aspect to the mid/high latitude SST's, but from a purely physical standpoint, it's difficult for me to buy that cold/very cold water temperatures can exert an influence sufficient to drive the pattern. The paper posted by bluewave in the thread corroborates our thinking regarding the tropical western Pacific being most important. https://www.americanwx.com/bb/topic/48093-transition-from-el-niño-to-la-niña-discussion/?page=11 I agree with you. Mike V also showed a low frequency signal coming from the tropical pacific as well. Basically, a NPAC warm pool isn't really gonna sway me either way. You have to look deeper as to why it's been there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted September 18, 2016 Share Posted September 18, 2016 3 hours ago, CoastalWx said: Same with NPAC ssts. They are the result of the pattern, not influencing it. Easily overwhelmed by a NPAC trough. It may feedback some, but I think they can be overrated. The Atlantic off the east coast may have some power since the waters are warm and warm water like that has more of a say. Warm being say 70s vs 40s and 50s. Only during early season storms for the CP. If anything, the I think the alignment of ATL ssts is favorable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted September 18, 2016 Author Share Posted September 18, 2016 9 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: He is exaggerating the impact of the SSTs imo. Every season has a "catch" phrase, or area of focus....2 years ago it was the polar vortex, last year it was the SAI, and this year it seems to be the warm ssts. Get a few cold blasts through, and poof. SSTs are very malleable....never mind lake temps, which he says will greatly modify airmasses. The Atlantic is simply not going to "push back" with warmth, with the exception of during a hugger, or inland runner....but our weather moves from west-to--east. If you want to cite a se ridge, then ok.....but that isn't the atlantic "fighting back" with warmth. I'll by a meh winter, but not his rationale. Silly. I believe the extensive amount of very warm Atlantic waters certainly has a pattern effect. His point about the Great Lakes only concerned early season cold air masses being modified downwind. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted September 18, 2016 Share Posted September 18, 2016 25 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: I believe the extensive amount of very warm Atlantic waters certainly has a pattern effect. His point about the Great Lakes only concerned early season cold air masses being modified downwind. Fair enough. I disagree. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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