Winter 2016/2017 because its never too early

[40/70 Benchmark]

And so it begins....

http://easternmassweather.blogspot.com

[weathafella]

I'm on the verge of a complete reversal of my spring concerns regarding this upcoming winter.   We may be singing like it's 1995-6 if nao cooperates.

[Ginx snewx]

6 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

And so it begins....

http://easternmassweather.blogspot.com

While you wax poetically with your weenie flapping in the Seattle Sun, my initial analog set

[ORH_wxman]

1 hour ago, weathafella said:

I'm on the verge of a complete reversal of my spring concerns regarding this upcoming winter.   We may be singing like it's 1995-6 if nao cooperates.

If Nina stays fairly weak I'm pretty optimistic on winter. I think that also gives December a colder signal.  

[weathafella]

If Nina stays fairly weak I'm pretty optimistic on winter. I think that also gives December a colder signal.  

Yeah my initial concern was a strong Nina but that seems less likely upping the possibility of nao cooperating by staying neutral or negative.


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[tamarack]

5 hours ago, weathafella said:

I'm on the verge of a complete reversal of my spring concerns regarding this upcoming winter.   We may be singing like it's 1995-6 if nao cooperates.

Hope not.  Yes, that winter was Farmington's 7th snowiest of 123, but only its 23rd highest SDDs in 76 winters with depth recorded, despite having continuous snow cover beginning on Nov 19.  A 40" snowpack was reduced to only 8" in mid January, by 3 thaws dumping 4" rain with temps upper 40s to low 50s.

[40/70 Benchmark]

4 hours ago, Ginx snewx said:

While you wax poetically with your weenie flapping in the Seattle Sun, my initial analog set

I like those...perhaps '97 and '81 being the weakest of the group.... '84 the best?

[Ginx snewx]

6 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I like those...perhaps '97 and '81 being the weakest of the group.... '84 the best?

yea 84 probably is all things considered. watch the QBO

[Damage In Tolland]

I'm not nearly as worried as last year about a ratter like we had or almost had. This year seems very salvageable..though everyone you talk to is canceling Dec again

[40/70 Benchmark]

Not sure why December is being cancelled...

[Damage In Tolland]

Nino lag. Reason why summer do hot. Too much global heat leftover 

[ORH_wxman]

2 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Nino lag. Reason why summer do hot. Too much global heat leftover 

Well 1983 was like the coldest December on record for the country and it followed a super nino (and an obscenely hot summer). So that's already one hard example which disproves the anecdotal talking point.

 

The fate of December will be determined by a lot of other things.

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said:

Well 1983 was like the coldest December on record for the country and it followed a super nino (and an obscenely hot summer). So that's already one hard example which disproves the anecdotal talking point.

 

The fate of December will be determined by a lot of other things.

Yea.......fraud, cop out answer.

I like December.

[powderfreak]

2 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Well 1983 was like the coldest December on record for the country and it followed a super nino (and an obscenely hot summer). So that's already one hard example which disproves the anecdotal talking point.

The fate of December will be determined by a lot of other things.

The global heat "leftover" argument I don't understand...does the leftover heat vanish for January?  Is that one extra month all it takes to get rid of it?  Is background global warming just a constant "leftover heat" signal?

To me I just can't imagine making a forecast based on that theory.

[ORH_wxman]

1 minute ago, powderfreak said:

The global heat "leftover" argument I don't understand...does the leftover heat vanish for January?  Is that one extra month all it takes to get rid of it?  Is background global warming just a constant "leftover heat" signal?

To me I just can't imagine making a forecast based on that theory.

 

As Ray said, it's a "fraud" argument...it sounds nice when talking over the water cooler but there's really nothing to scientifically tie it to a warm December in the eastern United States of all places on the globe. I mean, again...look at 1983....super Nino, followed a hot summer of '83, and the Nina was very weak unlike 1998-1999. You could have argued leftover heat that year too...instead we got the coldest December on record in the CONUS.

 

There is definitely "leftover heat" from the Super Nino...there always is. But it doesn't mean we have to be warm here. The most common place for it is actually in the northwest Pacific.

[beavis1729]

Besides being a weak La Nina, what specifically contributed to the cold of December 1983?  Were there any SSW events, a Kamchatka Ridge, low solar activity, cross-polar flow, etc.? 

Just an incredible period of cold in the week leading up to Christmas; in fact, it still stands as the coldest 7-day period in Chicago's history (thanks to Chicago Wx for the numbers).  It was -11/-25 on 12/24/1983...the coldest mean daily temp on record, 42 degrees below the 1981-2010 normal.

1983-84 was the first winter that I remember (I was 9 years old)...and unfortunately I came to believe that all Decembers should be like that.  

[tamarack]

27 minutes ago, beavis1729 said:

Besides being a weak La Nina, what specifically contributed to the cold of December 1983?  Were there any SSW events, a Kamchatka Ridge, low solar activity, cross-polar flow, etc.? 

Just an incredible period of cold in the week leading up to Christmas; in fact, it still stands as the coldest 7-day period in Chicago's history (thanks to Chicago Wx for the numbers).  It was -11/-25 on 12/24/1983...the coldest mean daily temp on record, 42 degrees below the 1981-2010 normal.

1983-84 was the first winter that I remember (I was 9 years old)...and unfortunately I came to believe that all Decembers should be like that.  

Well below normal for most of the 48, but the huge anomalies were centered in the Midwest.  For the Northeast, 1989 is easily the December standard.

[ORH_wxman]

50 minutes ago, beavis1729 said:

Besides being a weak La Nina, what specifically contributed to the cold of December 1983?  Were there any SSW events, a Kamchatka Ridge, low solar activity, cross-polar flow, etc.? 

Just an incredible period of cold in the week leading up to Christmas; in fact, it still stands as the coldest 7-day period in Chicago's history (thanks to Chicago Wx for the numbers).  It was -11/-25 on 12/24/1983...the coldest mean daily temp on record, 42 degrees below the 1981-2010 normal.

1983-84 was the first winter that I remember (I was 9 years old)...and unfortunately I came to believe that all Decembers should be like that.  

 

Huge AK block in Dec 1983...there was an SSW event that winter, but it didn't occur until late...sometime in mid February. It did help produce the big blocking in March 1984 that caused a cold and snowy month for much of the CONUS.

[Damage In Tolland]

I don't know..I've seen many well respected and knowledgable mets completely provide details that the Nino hangover provided ours and nationally the hot summer..and that those hangover effects will linger right thru fall and into early winter..finally vacating sometime later in January as the Nina takes hold. I don't really think there's any arguing that the nino hangover is real. If there's blocking..sure that can overcome this lag hangover..but if we continue with +NAO..it's another warm Dec nationally

[40/70 Benchmark]

34 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

I don't know..I've seen many well respected and knowledgable mets completely provide details that the Nino hangover provided ours and nationally the hot summer..and that those hangover effects will linger right thru fall and into early winter..finally vacating sometime later in January as the Nina takes hold. I don't really think there's any arguing that the nino hangover is real. If there's blocking..sure that can overcome this lag hangover..but if we continue with +NAO..it's another warm Dec nationally

Well, I couldn't care less who said what. It makes no sense to me....if you venture to think for yourself...

[weathafella]

I think snow and sizable at that in the first 10 days of December.


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[40/70 Benchmark]

7 minutes ago, weathafella said:

I think snow and sizable at that in the first 10 days of December.


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December 5th!!!

[weathafella]

December 5th!!!

Nature saluting my 70th but I believe tamarack got shafted on his...lol.


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[CoastalWx]

Kevin may have misunderstood these mets. 

[CoastalWx]

#MakeDecemberGreatAgain

 

 

[Rtd208]

7 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

#MakeDecemberGreatAgain

 

 

 

[moneypitmike]

They mowers were replaced by blowers at Tractor Supply.  It's time........

[powderfreak]

2 hours ago, Damage In Tolland said:

I don't know..I've seen many well respected and knowledgable mets completely provide details that the Nino hangover provided ours and nationally the hot summer..and that those hangover effects will linger right thru fall and into early winter..finally vacating sometime later in January as the Nina takes hold. I don't really think there's any arguing that the nino hangover is real. If there's blocking..sure that can overcome this lag hangover..but if we continue with +NAO..it's another warm Dec nationally

Nice explanation...it sounds like it will primarily depend on when the Niña SST take hold and exert a force on the North American weather patterns. 

[SnowGoose69]

12 hours ago, ORH_wxman said:

 

As Ray said, it's a "fraud" argument...it sounds nice when talking over the water cooler but there's really nothing to scientifically tie it to a warm December in the eastern United States of all places on the globe. I mean, again...look at 1983....super Nino, followed a hot summer of '83, and the Nina was very weak unlike 1998-1999. You could have argued leftover heat that year too...instead we got the coldest December on record in the CONUS.

 

There is definitely "leftover heat" from the Super Nino...there always is. But it doesn't mean we have to be warm here. The most common place for it is actually in the northwest Pacific.

Yeah, I'm not sure I can think of any torch Decembers that followed a relatively strong El Niño where the ensuing La Niña wasn't strong or moderate itself.  1992 may be the closest thing and I want to say there was more El Niño SSTs technically still present in fall 1992 than there will be this year. Then again, it's not a big sample size of weak Niña Decembers following mod or strong el Ninos  

[griteater]

One thing that is different between 1983 and 2016 is the extent of warm anomalies in the oceans.  I would think this adds a bit of a warm risk overall...but I could be completely wrong.