Ginx snewx Posted August 18, 2016 Author Share Posted August 18, 2016 59 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: What are we supposed to put in a snow pic thread? so defensive Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted August 18, 2016 Share Posted August 18, 2016 10 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: It does? Yea unfortunately. Be interesting to make a 3-year average snowfall map, might be close on averages haha. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tamarack Posted August 18, 2016 Share Posted August 18, 2016 8 hours ago, mreaves said: Like I alluded to in the post below this one, extreme cold leads to is smoking cirrus. I'm fine with normal + or - 1° or 2° Colder is better works even in NNE, at least to some extent. Farmington snow, as percentage of the LT mean, by average DJFM temp (variance from LT means): -4/colder.......119% -3/colder.......112% -2/colder.......111% -1/colder.......109% -0.99/+0.99...103% +1/milder.......89% +2/milder.......85% +3/milder.......79% +4/milder.......75% Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted August 18, 2016 Author Share Posted August 18, 2016 20 minutes ago, tamarack said: Colder is better works even in NNE, at least to some extent. Farmington snow, as percentage of the LT mean, by average DJFM temp (variance from LT means): -4/colder.......119% -3/colder.......112% -2/colder.......111% -1/colder.......109% -0.99/+0.99...103% +1/milder.......89% +2/milder.......85% +3/milder.......79% +4/milder.......75% AWT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted August 18, 2016 Share Posted August 18, 2016 23 minutes ago, tamarack said: Colder is better works even in NNE, at least to some extent. Farmington snow, as percentage of the LT mean, by average DJFM temp (variance from LT means): -4/colder.......119% -3/colder.......112% -2/colder.......111% -1/colder.......109% -0.99/+0.99...103% +1/milder.......89% +2/milder.......85% +3/milder.......79% +4/milder.......75% Yes, I have given the numbers before...but I think too many are scarred by cirrus smoking...you don't "feel" as bad when the storm rips through Detroit and everyone rains as you do when Cape Cod is getting a blizzard and NNE is 7F with NW winds and high overcast. So the fear is irrationally skewed toward "cold is much worse than warmth". Obviously precip is the more important driver, but if you filter solely by temps, you definitely want cold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted August 19, 2016 Share Posted August 19, 2016 I definitely crave a nice December. Getting a nice December (heck even just average) makes the season seem that much more wintry. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted August 19, 2016 Share Posted August 19, 2016 1 hour ago, CoastalWx said: I definitely crave a nice December. Getting a nice December (heck even just average) makes the season seem that much more wintry. Yeah we could really use a repeat of a big early start: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted August 19, 2016 Share Posted August 19, 2016 NNE just doesn't win anymore. They don't win on snow. They don't win on snow depth. We're getting killed by SNE on snowstorms. But don't worry, because soon there's going to be so much snow and so much great skiing...it's going to be unbelievable...it's going to make you so happy...we're going to see snow depths higher than anything you've seen recently. We're going to see snow so high, that you won't be able to see Canada anymore. It's going to be great.LolI have the best snow. I'd buy it. Yeah we could really use a repeat of a big early start: Hmm...little microclimate objection, I would doubt IJD proper did that well given the apparent elevation dependence, but I also have no clue what actually happened when I was 6. I know the maps aren't that precise, but it's a decent sized valley. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted August 19, 2016 Share Posted August 19, 2016 We ought to start an annual "cold vs. precipitation" thread. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted August 19, 2016 Author Share Posted August 19, 2016 2 hours ago, JC-CT said: Lol I have the best snow. I'd buy it. Hmm...little microclimate objection, I would doubt IJD proper did that well given the apparent elevation dependence, but I also have no clue what actually happened when I was 6. I know the maps aren't that precise, but it's a decent sized valley. Not well at all, but back side ULL did produce a 3-6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted August 19, 2016 Author Share Posted August 19, 2016 9 hours ago, ORH_wxman said: Yeah we could really use a repeat of a big early start: only problem was on the 17th a huge warm rain storm washed it all away and it was Grinch city in 92 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted August 19, 2016 Share Posted August 19, 2016 5 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: only problem was on the 17th a huge warm rain storm washed it all away and it was Grinch city in 92 I remember that. Though we survived it up here and had like a 3" glacier on Christmas with still huge piles. That winter took a pretty decent pause between that storm and mid January. But once winter got rolling again it was awesome. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted August 19, 2016 Share Posted August 19, 2016 3 hours ago, JC-CT said: Lol I have the best snow. I'd buy it. Hmm...little microclimate objection, I would doubt IJD proper did that well given the apparent elevation dependence, but I also have no clue what actually happened when I was 6. I know the maps aren't that precise, but it's a decent sized valley. I'll have to double check but E CT was not in a bad spot. BDL back in Death Valley even had 5.3 and I think IJD may have done better. I'll have to look tho when I'm back at a computer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted August 19, 2016 Share Posted August 19, 2016 9 hours ago, ORH_wxman said: Yeah we could really use a repeat of a big early start: The worst heartbreak ever. But, at least it was a hell of a storm.....rainstorm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted August 19, 2016 Share Posted August 19, 2016 I can even sense Will hates this area too. The urge of all New England outside of 495 ready to stomp and trample on me is palpable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted August 19, 2016 Author Share Posted August 19, 2016 3 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: I'll have to double check but E CT was not in a bad spot. BDL back in Death Valley even had 5.3 and I think IJD may have done better. I'll have to look tho when I'm back at a computer. IJD got backside goods, mostly rain frontside Met who smokes Herbs video is awesome Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted August 19, 2016 Share Posted August 19, 2016 Will is about to post March 2001 map. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted August 19, 2016 Share Posted August 19, 2016 16 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: I can even sense Will hates this area too. The urge of all New England outside of 495 ready to stomp and trample on me is palpable. Ha I don't hate it. I haven't missed out on the goods the past few years like the berkshires or powderfreak. I mean I was experiencing ORH's greatest snowfall a couple winters ago and before that experienced two top 10 storms a month apart in 2013. Im just having fun. But we know E MA is gonna pay the piper at some point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted August 19, 2016 Share Posted August 19, 2016 I'm kidding myself. Trust me, I know it's coming. But, I'll always enjoy weather in the cold season. At least we can always manage a few interesting events down here...even amid a stinker. Maybe not always snow, but I enjoy a good coastal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted August 19, 2016 Share Posted August 19, 2016 1 hour ago, ORH_wxman said: I'll have to double check but E CT was not in a bad spot. BDL back in Death Valley even had 5.3 and I think IJD may have done better. I'll have to look tho when I'm back at a computer. Ok, I double checked and Mansfield Hollow Lake coop just north of IJD airport and only about 200 feet elevation had missing data from 12/11-12/13/92, but they went from a 0" snow depth before the storm to a 8" snow depth on 12/14...more than 24 hours after the storm ended. So this suggests they probably cracked 10" taking into account over 24 hours of compaction/settling. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted August 19, 2016 Share Posted August 19, 2016 16 hours ago, tamarack said: Colder is better works even in NNE, at least to some extent. Farmington snow, as percentage of the LT mean, by average DJFM temp (variance from LT means): -4/colder.......119% -3/colder.......112% -2/colder.......111% -1/colder.......109% -0.99/+0.99...103% +1/milder.......89% +2/milder.......85% +3/milder.......79% +4/milder.......75% I bet adding in the March departure also helps. Wonder if it changes at all for DJF or even monthly...like -4F in January doesn't do as much for snow as -4F in March. When I get a few days off I'll have to run it for Mansfield summit by month and see what the long term relationship is. Mansfield's big snow months are wet months, be interesting to see temps too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted August 19, 2016 Share Posted August 19, 2016 11 hours ago, ORH_wxman said: Yeah we could really use a repeat of a big early start: How about a start like October 2011? That storm still blows my mind. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoraopolisWx Posted August 19, 2016 Share Posted August 19, 2016 14 hours ago, ORH_wxman said: Yeah we could really use a repeat of a big early start: Do you know of any animated radar links for this storm. Or mabey some Weather Channel clips. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tamarack Posted August 19, 2016 Share Posted August 19, 2016 3 hours ago, powderfreak said: How about a start like October 2011? That storm still blows my mind. Meh. 4.5" mush, normally a great Oct snow, but since the forecast was 12-16 and not-so-distant places broke 20...meh. And 12/92 was a windy whiff. I'd prefer Nov. 1943, which did for the foothills/mts here what Oct. 2011 did for MRG. PF, you've piqued my curiosity, though I'll have to work a bit harder. DJFM produces 89% of our average snowfall, so I just used the total. DJF is 69%, so I'll need to compare with just those three. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted August 19, 2016 Share Posted August 19, 2016 27 minutes ago, CoraopolisWx said: Do you know of any animated radar links for this storm. Or mabey some Weather Channel clips. I wish I did, but I haven't been able to find any good radar loops from that. Hopefully in time, some weenie will upload hours of coverage from that storm including radar loops. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tamarack Posted August 19, 2016 Share Posted August 19, 2016 Here the DJM departures and DJM temp departures are the numbers to the right. Colder is better works even in NNE, at least to some extent. Farmington snow, as percentage of the LT mean, by average DJFM temp (variance from LT means): -4/colder.......119%......116% -3/colder.......112%......120% (The 9 DJFs with temps 3.00-3.99 avg'd 126%, thanks to 19-20, 22-23, and 77-78, which avg'd 170%.) -2/colder.......111%......114% -1/colder.......109%......112% -0.99/+0.99...103%......101% +1/milder.......89%........89% +2/milder.......85%........83% +3/milder.......79%........78% +4/milder.......75%........74% Except for the little anomaly of the -3F class, pretty much the same picture. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted August 19, 2016 Share Posted August 19, 2016 3 minutes ago, tamarack said: Here the DJM departures and DJM temp departures are the numbers to the right. Colder is better works even in NNE, at least to some extent. Farmington snow, as percentage of the LT mean, by average DJFM temp (variance from LT means): -4/colder.......119%......116% -3/colder.......112%......120% (The 9 DJFs with temps 3.00-3.99 avg'd 126%, thanks to 19-20, 22-23, and 77-78, which avg'd 170%.) -2/colder.......111%......114% -1/colder.......109%......112% -0.99/+0.99...103%......101% +1/milder.......89%........89% +2/milder.......85%........83% +3/milder.......79%........78% +4/milder.......75%........74% Except for the little anomaly of the -3F class, pretty much the same picture. Don't be afraid of cold!!! That's the ultimate lesson. I actually tested Mt. Mansfield for powderfreak...here are the top snowy DJF periods...so I excluded March and November despite them being huge snowfall months up there. I wanted to see if the narrative held up in heart of winter. So this is DJF snowfall only and the temperature departure: Season...........snow.....Temp 1957-58........177.9......+0.8 2007-08........172.1......+0.9 1968-69........160.0.....+0.2 2010-11........158.5......-1.2 1970-71........158.3......-3.1 2006-07........154.8.......0.0 2008-09........148.8......-1.4 1978-79........144.7......-3.1 1999-00........144.0.....+1.1 1992-93........142.7.....-1.7 2000-01........140.0.....-1.3 1996-97........138.1....+2.0 2009-10........135.2....+0.9 1966-67........135.1....N/A (missing temp data) 1971-72........134.3.....-0.8 Average temp departure...-0.48 So for Mansfield, you would rather have cold, though as you can see there is some good variation. Mansfield's warmest DJF on record? 2015-2016....we know powderfreak loved that season. The coldest DJF season was 1976-77 followed by 1993-94. Both of those DJF snowfalls didn't make the top 15 list above, but they were close with 133.8 and 128.9 respectively. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
skierinvermont Posted August 19, 2016 Share Posted August 19, 2016 So if I'm reading that right there's very little correlation for Mt Mansfield in DJF .. which makes sense because precip rarely falls in the form of rain from about Mt Mansfield north in the high elevations of VT. I'd guess the correlation breaks down in places where it rarely rains during the time of year in question and eventually reverses if you go far enough north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted August 19, 2016 Share Posted August 19, 2016 2 hours ago, ORH_wxman said: Don't be afraid of cold!!! That's the ultimate lesson. I actually tested Mt. Mansfield for powderfreak...here are the top snowy DJF periods...so I excluded March and November despite them being huge snowfall months up there. I wanted to see if the narrative held up in heart of winter. So this is DJF snowfall only and the temperature departure: Season...........snow.....Temp 1957-58........177.9......+0.8 2007-08........172.1......+0.9 1968-69........160.0.....+0.2 2010-11........158.5......-1.2 1970-71........158.3......-3.1 2006-07........154.8.......0.0 2008-09........148.8......-1.4 1978-79........144.7......-3.1 1999-00........144.0.....+1.1 1992-93........142.7.....-1.7 2000-01........140.0.....-1.3 1996-97........138.1....+2.0 2009-10........135.2....+0.9 1966-67........135.1....N/A (missing temp data) 1971-72........134.3.....-0.8 Average temp departure...-0.48 So for Mansfield, you would rather have cold, though as you can see there is some good variation. Mansfield's warmest DJF on record? 2015-2016....we know powderfreak loved that season. The coldest DJF season was 1976-77 followed by 1993-94. Both of those DJF snowfalls didn't make the top 15 list above, but they were close with 133.8 and 128.9 respectively. Yeah I'm not seeing much signal there though, that's a pretty even split but leaning colder. I guess I just don't 100% agree with the "give me the big cold and I'll show you the snow." Moisture is much more important. Its not about being afraid of the cold, but more so not fearing an above normal pattern in the means either. Down by say Ginxy though I'd assume the signal is a lot brighter for cold and snow correlation. As I've said in the summer too though, dead on normal is a perfect pattern. The climate here (temps, precip, snow) is what I'd term as just about perfect if only we could sit at normal all year round lol. I've got a spreadsheet with resort monthly snowfall for the past decade, I'm going to hit that up soon for snow/temp correlations but I bet it'll be similar...I expected a like +.5 to -.5 mean. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted August 19, 2016 Share Posted August 19, 2016 7 minutes ago, powderfreak said: Yeah I'm not seeing much signal there though, that's a pretty even split but leaning colder. I guess I just don't 100% agree with the "give me the big cold and I'll show you the snow." Moisture is much more important. Its not about being afraid of the cold, but more so not fearing an above normal pattern in the means either. Down by say Ginxy though I'd assume the signal is a lot brighter for cold and snow correlation. As I've said in the summer too though, dead on normal is a perfect pattern. The climate here (temps, precip, snow) is what I'd term as just about perfect if only we could sit at normal all year round lol. I've got a spreadsheet with resort monthly snowfall for the past decade, I'm going to hit that up soon for snow/temp correlations but I bet it'll be similar...I expected a like +.5 to -.5 mean. I def agree precip is most important. Even for a place like ORH it is more important than temps. But if you are just having to pick temps with no other information, you'd want below normal vs above normal...even up there. Though it's less dire for sure if it is above normal there vs down here....once you are down on the southern coastal plain of SNE in CT/RI...the temps definitely dominate the trend. But I still think these numbers show that there is no rational reason to fear cold patterns in NNE mountains. They can be quite snowy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.